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  • #361
  • Mar 12, 2009 7:29pm Mar 12, 2009 7:29pm
Quoting Amines
GBP/JPY: Price has fallen in between the 20 and 50, signalling indecision and lack of direction. With 2 hours left until close, this candle will most likely close as a hammer, or piercing line, or even a bullish engulfing, signalling bullish sentiment. Price was supported near the low of the 300 pip wick by the 50, and is also right on top of BOSS 20. Volume is already substantially higher than that of the last candle which means more traders stepped in with sufficient strength to put a stop to the bear raid. Fib retracements from the Feb 12th to...
Hey AminAS, press F8 or right click anywhere on your chart, click on Properties at the bottom, click Common, then uncheck (remove) "show grid" to remove those horrible grid lines on your chart. You need as clean a chart as possible when you start to put up more S&R lines

Best analysis so far - congratulations and very well done!
Just a few minor points if I may:
"Price was supported near the low of the 300 pip wick by the 50, and is also right on top of BOSS 20." AND major resistance at 132.00 giving us confluence of support.

"The long entry order would be placed above 136.60." This is a good entry for using the hammer as your signal bar but you might want to go 10 or so pips above it to try and get out of some of the noise around that high. HOWEVER, I will not put an order there and not yet - Why? Because there is a wall of resistance above it - the 20 - you would be trading directly into resistance - a very high risk trade! My trade will not go until I see a STRONG close above the 20. Then once in the trade we need to monitor it closely - the daily is fighting with it's BOSS and we know who USUALLY wins - don't we?

There is only one thing that is not right - the SL. It should go at least below the low of your set up bar. Yes it is a big SL but if you can't afford it then don't take the trade. Many times, IBs are formed after these bars and that would wipe out your SL as would a Stop Run. So YES, you DO WANT to put it where YOU don't want to put it (if you don't you are fooling yourself).

"Please correct me if this analysis was way out of the ballpark." - WAY OUT - HOME RUN!!!!!!!

A big clue to the USDJPY HUGE problem is staring you in the face on this one also.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #362
  • Edited 8:58pm Mar 12, 2009 8:44pm | Edited 8:58pm
Hello Amin
I took this trade too, but off the 4hour chart.
Whatever you call the candle (Strat) I liked the price rejection of the support level at 1.32 and the support off the daily 50MA. It did hit some resistance at 136.40 but I am still in and hoping we can go a bit further up.
I like the look of the EURJPY set up for a long too maybe, I am going to watch it.
Nice analysis
Nicola


Quoting AminAS
GBP/JPY: Price has fallen in between the 20 and 50, signalling indecision and lack of direction. With 2 hours left until close, this candle will most likely close as a hammer, or piercing line, or even a bullish engulfing, signalling bullish sentiment. Price was supported near the low of the 300 pip wick by the 50, and is also right on top of BOSS 20. Volume is already substantially higher than that of the last candle which means more traders stepped in with sufficient strength to put a stop to the bear raid. Fib retracements from the Feb 12th to...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: gbpjpy.gif Size: 24 KB
  • #363
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:18pm Mar 12, 2009 9:18pm
Ive had a little eye on the yens for some time and when to think about shorting them.Im gonna wait for the weekly close.If GJ closes as a pin the next daily bar gets it.That should see us past the chunky resis break the pivot and may the the begining of a new reality.When i view the yens i think "close but no banana".Same for aud and kiwi strong case for a new direction there too the bars are building.

I want more info,if im not fighting to fill in those tickets its because we got Hustons(problems).And to my little eye all pairs are at flip zones.Now i dont care which we it goes but i wanna be above it or below it not at it.

And we got some base emas around so thats interesting and as UJ leads the way on those and shes at the 150 in light of the killing we had im gonna have a nice cuppa tea and wait.Very dangerous calling a trend change.Later is always later than you think but dont worry she will give us the sign.....g
  • #364
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:21pm Mar 12, 2009 9:21pm
nice 4 hour set up,it didnt look like that on my feed...break even? i would free trade love em x
  • #365
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:36pm Mar 12, 2009 9:36pm
one more thing on the s/l take profit thing.Imagine you have about 3 or 4 standard lots on a ticket, how would you do things then?
  • #366
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:58pm Mar 12, 2009 9:58pm
Hello Strat:

My first post here. I have a daily, weekly and monthly chart of the USDJPY with the 20 period moving average as you suggested. I am looking for the HUGE PROBLEM.

http://i41.tinypic.com/205w7yf.gif

http://i42.tinypic.com/2wf7r86.gif

http://i41.tinypic.com/2jetuag.gif
TRO
  • #367
  • Mar 12, 2009 10:03pm Mar 12, 2009 10:03pm
Perhaps a new all time low will be made?

http://i44.tinypic.com/4u8bdi.gif
TRO
  • #368
  • Mar 13, 2009 12:05am Mar 13, 2009 12:05am
hmmmm, i can see a HUGE resistance coming from March, 08 & Oct. 08
that seems to be holding down USD/JPY... apparently, USD/JPY will
bounce south unless that resistance is taken....
There's a POT of GOLD at the END of the RAINBOW!!
  • #369
  • Mar 13, 2009 12:09am Mar 13, 2009 12:09am
i am already long on EUR/JPY @124.05 (SL=122, TP1=129.5),
There's a POT of GOLD at the END of the RAINBOW!!
  • #370
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:11am Mar 13, 2009 3:11am
Quoting Baba G
One more thing on the s/l take profit thing.Imagine you have about 3 or 4 standard lots on a ticket, how would you do things then?
Well if I had 3 or 4 standard lots on the GJ trade and I was up 300 pips I would have banked it and be in the pub (it is friday after all LOL)
You are right though. Bank some, move stop to BE and let the rest run ...

Thanks for your insight Baba G, very happy to be learning from guys like you and Strat.
N
  • #371
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:18am Mar 13, 2009 3:18am
Quoting haribon2008
i am already long on EUR/JPY @124.05 (SL=122, TP1=129.5),
set to auto mode, trailing stop = 250
There's a POT of GOLD at the END of the RAINBOW!!
  • #372
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:20am Mar 13, 2009 3:20am
Nice one Hari!

Quoting haribon2008
set to auto mode, trailing stop = 250
  • #373
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:29am Mar 13, 2009 3:29am
thanks

+320pips now, with +70 in the bag now... and counting

i will let the profit run on this one, maybe put one more std. lot
when it retrace
There's a POT of GOLD at the END of the RAINBOW!!
  • #374
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:36am Mar 13, 2009 3:36am
Quoting elitejets
Well if I had 3 or 4 standard lots on the GJ trade and I was up 300 pips I would have banked it and be in the pub (it is friday after all LOL)
You are right though. Bank some, move stop to BE and let the rest run ...

Thanks for your insight Baba G, very happy to be learning from guys like you and Strat.
N
Of course youd be havin a supple on the sipple......Now ask yourself this.If 4 stnd lots was your full line swing on a daily on trend ect ect what would you put on a 4 hour on bias?And how would you manage them?remeber its 20 gbp a pip.To put it in context youve just had a home run and done your month?

Mind games time G
  • #375
  • Mar 13, 2009 3:45am Mar 13, 2009 3:45am
Quoting strat
Glad you could join us - tell us about some of your struggles

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Strat,

my struggles arose from trading 1H/15M TF, shifting from time frames to time frames and experimenting with different indicators. and so it goes, was a huge tuition fee so far as per my case.

it always intrigued me when others tell to keep it simple, but i can't seem to find the "right key" to validate that statement...

and then you came! you're the man!!!
There's a POT of GOLD at the END of the RAINBOW!!
  • #376
  • Mar 13, 2009 4:08am Mar 13, 2009 4:08am
Well you just nailed my problem. I am a brave trader at low stakes but if there was that kind of money on the table I would trade like a gimp.
I am working on it, and this is helping!
Nic

Quoting Baba G
Of course youd be havin a supple on the sipple......Now ask yourself this.If 4 stnd lots was your full line swing on a daily on trend ect ect what would you put on a 4 hour on bias?And how would you manage them?remeber its 20 gbp a pip.To put it in context youve just had a home run and done your month?

Mind games time G
  • #377
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:20am Mar 13, 2009 5:20am
I had an overnight order on GBPJPY long but cancelled it when I got up. My SL was in no mans land so there was no point. And had my eye on EURJPY too, again SL was just too much. Sitting patient now.
  • #378
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:23am Mar 13, 2009 5:23am
I am trying a long CAD because I liked the price action on the hourly.
I am hoping to hold this one for a while ...
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cad daily.gif Size: 20 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: cad hrly.gif Size: 16 KB
  • #379
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:28am Mar 13, 2009 5:28am
Quoting elitejets
Well you just nailed my problem. I am a brave trader at low stakes but if there was that kind of money on the table I would trade like a gimp.
I am working on it, and this is helping!
Nic
Ok gimpy.Start trading in %.Then when the money gets big you will not notifce.Get some money management rules set up now start to find your yeild curve that will banish your gimpyness...G
  • #380
  • Mar 13, 2009 5:56am Mar 13, 2009 5:56am
Yes. I will make myself a little excel calculator this weekend ...
Thanks

Quoting Baba G
Ok gimpy.Start trading in %.Then when the money gets big you will not notifce.Get some money management rules set up now start to find your yeild curve that will banish your gimpyness...G
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