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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #23,641
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:19pm Mar 12, 2009 6:19pm
Quoting goldbird22
Thanks Gorubin and Mike
BTW when you say times like this, are you refering to volatility?
I more meant the fact that we have similar signals across correlated pairs(ie xxx/jpy pairs)


Mike
  • #23,642
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:47pm Mar 12, 2009 6:47pm
I put an order in on the gbp/jpy...as i look at it more and more i dont feel as comfortable with it. I might cancel, I am feeling that forcing feeling too. A wise trader(on this forum) once told me to listen to these uncomfortable feelings. might have to cancel this one


Quoting ghous
I am not impressed with either...

Ej:

As i see it Ej's got more to it than just the 126 level, notice the 128 level and the ppz flip between them. scrolling back I can see that price did get trapped between this zone several times.

I won't recant my anticipation or weak yen crosses...

Gj:

Like Ej it's got some resistance around 137, you could place an order above this level but for me it would be more a trade forced.

In a nutshell...both these Like the Uj pin earlier that did'nt materialize much appear near swing highs with resistance...
  • #23,643
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:47pm Mar 12, 2009 6:47pm
Quoting gododdin

I'm in this for the long haul and hopefully I've already proved that I'm not afraid to put in the hours - I think I've been on the wrong road though, and you're right, it's time to step back and unlearn some stuff. I have ploughed my way through what for me were some incredibly complex and I think probably very scholarly books (anyone read Fibonacci Analysis by Constance Brown for example) but none of it seems to have helped.

"Tortured soul" is right...
J16 is a simple method, so I'm sure with time and practice you will succeed.
Below is a curve of pure j16 trades on one of my conservative accounts over 8 month period. Well, first 30 trades were pure 16 (pins, beovb, etc..) 31-70 are still J16 trades but traded only around good confluence or ppzs.

You're not alone here. Take time to digest this material and demo until you can trade bars with your eyes close. As someone already mentioned, it's well worth studying it.
I can assure you this curve had a different slope few years ago.., but I didn't know James then...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: j16methodcurve.jpg Size: 36 KB
  • #23,644
  • Edited 8:02pm Mar 12, 2009 7:14pm | Edited 8:02pm
On my feed there is a BUOB on the USD/CHF daily chart and a possible BUOB on the weekly chart (depending upon the close of the current week).

Pros:

  1. There appears to be a lot of space between PPZs near 1.19 and 1.22.
  2. The most recent daily bar seems to have broken above a weekly PPZ at around 1.19.
  3. The pair has been in a uptrend in 2009.
  4. On my weekly chart, the daily BUOB closed above the 200 EMA.
  5. The low of the most recent bar on my daily chart kissed the PPZ near 1.15 and penetrated two fibs. (Looks like good confluence, but I'm not too sure about my fibs.) Also, the daily chart has the 89 EMA near the 1.15 PPZ.
  6. If this pair continues upward, I do not see much resistance before 1.22.

Cons:

  1. I am seeing a daily PPZ near 1.2 that might cause some problems.
  2. The BUOB is huge. If I use the conventional stop loss/entry method that I am used to (entering the trade 10 pips above high of BUOB and setting stop loss 10 pips below the low), I would be risking almost 500 pips for a profit target of maybe 300 pips. Taking profit near 1.2 and moving to break-even would make the R:R for this trade poor in my opinion.

This is a very tempting setup for me. I see many reasons to take this trade. I know that risk/reward is not as important when you take high probability A+ trades, but I still do not know what an A+ trade is. Since I have been following this thread closely, I have always seen at least one reason to stay out of every trade, even the ones identified as A+ trades by some senior members. I suppose this will change with time and patience.

I don't think this one falls into the A+ category because the USD/CHF made its big move today based on news. Also, I feel that taking this trade might be bad money management. I think the move has run out of steam and I doubt that the high of the BUOB will be broken anytime soon.

I suppose I could find a much better R:R ration if I look at some lower time frames and try to find some price action above 1.19, but I am just a rookie trying to learn the basics and struggling to stick to the important rules provided for beginners.

Thanks to several senior members and even some rookies like Josh (Man, I wish I had your discipline this early in my trading), I am slowly learning to be patient and wait for the best setups.

What you you think about my analysis? Please feel free to provide constructive criticism.

Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: usdchfdaily2009-03-12.gif Size: 21 KB
  • #23,645
  • Edited 8:04pm Mar 12, 2009 7:46pm | Edited 8:04pm
It is confirmed that the Swiss intervened in their currency and may very well do it again. There is also speculation that the BOJ will intervene in the Yen market too. Of course, the SNB and BOJ simply talking about it could also have an effect.

http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2009/...wiss-Franc.php

Now that we know there was an intervention, does that negate the "signal" value of the the BUOB on the daily, and we should close the position, or should the position be treated like any other that has not hit its target, perhaps in hopes the intervention will continue tonight/tomorrow? Another consideration is the upcoming G20 meeting, where the Swiss will probably be taken to task for the intervention, so perhaps they will want to intervene again right away to get their licks in before they are berated at the G20 meeting.
  • #23,646
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:07pm Mar 12, 2009 9:07pm
very nice aa.

Quoting aarangio
[Thanks to James16 for starting this thread. Thanks to all the posters who have made it the textbook to learn, with thousands of examples, answers to every question, insight on money management and trading styles, and lots of encouragement along the way. I have learned so much about trading in the last 2 months, all from simply reading, studying, reviewing, and applying the principles in this thread. Keep it up everybody, we've really got something amazing here

Josh
Hi ya Josh..

Thanks muchly for all the time and effort you have put into this post I have just seen....you made life a lot easy for finding a lot of the good stuff in one spot directly ..

Adrian[/quote]
  • #23,647
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:08pm Mar 12, 2009 9:08pm
welcome home urch.


Quoting urchman
A follower of james 16 thread was lost but back and better. i missed not posting here for long time. hope there's room for a prodigal fellow like me?...jaroo hope u still remember me....dibs trader
  • #23,648
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:13pm Mar 12, 2009 9:13pm
thats cool rac. thanks for sharing that. maybe this is another one that needs to go to post 1.

Quoting raczekfx
J16 is a simple method, so I'm sure with time and practice you will succeed.
Below is a curve of pure j16 trades on one of my conservative accounts over 8 month period. Well, first 30 trades were pure 16 (pins, beovb, etc..) 31-70 are still J16 trades but traded only around good confluence or ppzs.

You're not alone here. Take time to digest this material and demo until you can trade bars with your eyes close. As someone already mentioned, it's well worth studying it.
I can assure you this curve had a different slope few years ago.., but I didn't...
  • #23,649
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:15pm Mar 12, 2009 9:15pm
if you guys/gals know of a good post that is pretty much lost in the thread let me know about it and i will put it in a list im compiling in post #1.

dont do it here. email me with the post number please.

thanks,

jim
  • #23,650
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:50pm Mar 12, 2009 9:50pm
Quoting james16
welcome home urch.
Respect a man, and he will do all the more.
  • #23,651
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:52pm Mar 12, 2009 9:52pm
John

Excuse my ignorance but why did u take this trade?

Thanks gerard
  • #23,652
  • Mar 12, 2009 10:23pm Mar 12, 2009 10:23pm
Quoting Gerard212
John

Excuse my ignorance but why did u take this trade?

Thanks gerard
HI JIM...

since i see ur name... just want to thank to all ur afford n all the members here...

I miss a lot pair yesterday... the only one I take it cadchf...

-daily double bar low higher close
-swing low
-61.8% fibo location
-ppz round number 0.8900...
-good PA... since last week daily candle stand there...

have prob attach chart... hope this help...
  • #23,653
  • Mar 12, 2009 10:37pm Mar 12, 2009 10:37pm
Quoting cappalz
HI JIM...
I vote your avatar best of the year!

Stick around in here and you can be sure that you'll be doing plenty of it while your platform rakes in the $$$
  • #23,654
  • Mar 12, 2009 10:45pm Mar 12, 2009 10:45pm
Quoting Gerard212
John

Excuse my ignorance but why did u take this trade?

Thanks gerard
You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? Then who the hell else are you talkin' to? You talkin' to me? Well I'm the only one here. Who the f%$& do you think you're talking to?

Sorry, couldn't help channeling Travis Bickle there. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgcVLOe9qFM&feature=related

So are you talking to me?
  • #23,655
  • Mar 12, 2009 11:09pm Mar 12, 2009 11:09pm
Anyone notice this PB developing on the monthly DOW JONES INDEX? It still has 2 weeks to complete the bar but might be worth keeping your eyes on. Could this be calling a bottom or just a short term reversal?

There is also confluence with a PPZ going back to '86 and the 61.8% FIB.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: DOW.jpg Size: 190 KB
It's all about cautious - and highly educated - wagering on probabilities.
  • #23,656
  • Edited 11:47pm Mar 12, 2009 11:22pm | Edited 11:47pm
Quoting Santana55
Anyone notice this PB developing on the monthly DOW JONES INDEX? It still has 2 weeks to complete the bar but might be worth keeping your eyes on. Could this be calling a bottom or just a short term reversal?

There is also confluence with a PPZ going back to '86 and the 61.8% FIB.
I've heard a lot of people predicting a bear market rally. Maybe it will be a long term H&S pattern.
  • #23,657
  • Mar 13, 2009 12:35am Mar 13, 2009 12:35am
eu/yen looks like it could continue its raleigh..??
buob breaking the ib (4h),a break above this could be the break out of its current range,targeting 128.5 - 131
does this look good to anyone else??
EDIE: just broke north
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 h.jpg Size: 144 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: 4 hour.jpg Size: 128 KB
PATIENCE... DISCIPLINE
  • #23,658
  • Mar 13, 2009 12:47am Mar 13, 2009 12:47am
Quoting g_j_hook@yah
eu/yen looks like it could continue its raleigh..??
buob breaking the ib (4h),a break above this could be the break out of its current range,targeting 128.5 - 131
does this look good to anyone else??
EDIE: just broke north
Pull up the macd on your 4H chart Bro, we broke 126 but may eventually have the daily bar being rejected off this level.

(Just putting my thoughts on the pair in words)

Regards,
Ghous.
I believe . . .
  • #23,659
  • Mar 13, 2009 12:50am Mar 13, 2009 12:50am
Quoting johnnyonspot
You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? You talkin' to me? Then who the hell else are you talkin' to? You talkin' to me? Well I'm the only one here. Who the f%$& do you think you're talking to?

Sorry, couldn't help channeling Travis Bickle there. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgcVLOe9qFM&feature=related

So are you talking to me?
This one literally had me rolling on the floor!

Thanks for the laugh Johnny,
I believe . . .
  • #23,660
  • Mar 13, 2009 12:52am Mar 13, 2009 12:52am
Quoting raczekfx
J16 is a simple method, so I'm sure with time and practice you will succeed.
Below is a curve of pure j16 trades on one of my conservative accounts over 8 month period. Well, first 30 trades were pure 16 (pins, beovb, etc..) 31-70 are still J16 trades but traded only around good confluence or ppzs.

You're not alone here. Take time to digest this material and demo until you can trade bars with your eyes close. As someone already mentioned, it's well worth studying it.
I can assure you this curve had a different slope few years ago.., but I didn't...
Very nice Mark.

Thnx for the encouragement
I believe . . .
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