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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,101
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:02am Mar 12, 2009 5:02am
Quoting saka
hi, friends

It seems that I have a long time not to post at thread because of busy work. This session is a tough area where 4h thythm is not very clear. Please switch to daily chart, you will see clear pictures at know which strategy at this case we should use.

Hi.
Your charts opened to me eyes. I believe mistakenly this period was bad, but now I believe the contrary. Thanks.
I am learning English, but still cannot speak well.
  • #19,102
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:10am Mar 12, 2009 5:10am
Quoting orangeRANGE
So, I need a vote here.
Do go on, I am listening. Your messages are useful to me.
I am learning English, but still cannot speak well.
  • #19,103
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:50am Mar 12, 2009 6:50am

The Euro’s Impact On GDP Growth

By John R. Taylor

The European currency picture has been dominated by the euro for about 20 years. First, it was a dream, and then after the cataclysmic currency crisis
in late 1992 the movement toward reality began. Those who chose the euro welcomed it with open arms at the beginning of 1999 and through the last
decade it has proven a great success.
We have been as impressed as the next guy, but over the years we have commented that the euro could not be classified as a “real” currency until it had survived a significant recession. We are now in that recession and it is a rip-snorter.What happens now?

Because the euro is made up of countries that are at different stages of economic development with different labor markets and that had been operating at very different interest rates for many years prior to joining, there was always risk. The first years of the euro were easy. As Germany and the Benelux countries had been operating for many years with low interest rates and inflation within a tight monetary regime, there was very
little change when the “hard money” euro became reality. For some of the others the impact was dramatic. Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain (the PIIGS) had operated within a looser monetary structure with much higher interest rates and inflation
to match. As the euro came closer to reality, interest rates in the PIIGS began to drop, making it less costly to buy a house or finance a business project. The governments themselves saw their financing costs drop, so public construction boomed.
With theeconomies benefiting from lower interest rates, everything looked rosy, jobs were plentiful and asset prices climbed. Leverage went way up and relative wages climbed in
the PIIGS, but Germany and the Benelux operated just as they had before. Although the PIIGS rate of GDP growth accelerated dramatically, Germany grew just as slowly as before. The five-year averages in the chart above should smooth out recessions, but the PIIGS took off even through the recession of 2001-02.
Now with wages too high and more leverage than Germany, the PIIGS are suffering from their boom. There is a very long cycle at play here. Joining the euro leads to a long multi-year upmove and then a shorter sharp downmove. We would project the cycles to be around 18 years, very similar to the housing and construction cycles, which are closely tied to funding costs – the primary impact of the euro. If the last low was in 1992, the next one should be in 2010, and the low could be as dramatic.
  • #19,104
  • Mar 12, 2009 7:47am Mar 12, 2009 7:47am
Quoting orangeRANGE
hammerhead...I am truly based on Phillip's teaching...
Let me tell you and the others about my h1 agrressive entry :-

1) I am trying to be creative...and looking out for a new formula...on how we can benefit from h1 entry strategies...in all market conditions (ranging/trending/ consolidating/extremely volatile). BUT, I ALWAYS REMINDED MYSELF AND ALL OF US HERE THAT THIS STRATEGIES MUST ALWAYS AGREE WITH 4 HOUR RHTYM AND RULES;
don't quit! Keep going. your chart is very helpful.
  • #19,105
  • Mar 12, 2009 8:38am Mar 12, 2009 8:38am
Quoting fishmen
don't quit! Keep going. your chart is very helpful.
Hello all...
I am sorry but I am posting this because I don't want to let these 2 guys down...

So fishmen and Keus...

I see that MAYBE we can be in a good LONG position for this pair sometime around next week onwards. Please look your h4 carefully. See how the MAs "behaviours" around the price. And also look at the strength of the res TL as well.

Question:-
Look at aqua vertical line marked with X in h1 below. Would you consider to make SHORT entry @ the opening of the next candle (pointed in black arrow) to bag some pips? Take note that the MACD, ADX and GAP indicators are all in agreement (red)? If you are only refering this point in h4 during that time...maybe you are in 50:50 decision...

If you ask me...hell yeah...I will do that...because I am AGGRESSIVE TRADER with h4 rhythm and rules in mind...always...!!!

P/S-just e-mail me through FF site if you want to ask more about this.

Best regards....

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,106
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:24am Mar 12, 2009 9:24am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hello all...
I am sorry but I am posting this because I don't want to let these 2 guys down...

So fishmen and Keus...

I see that MAYBE we can be in a good LONG position for this pair sometime around next week onwards. Please look your h4 carefully. See how the MAs "behaviours" around the price. And also look at the strength of the res TL as well.

Question:-
Look at aqua vertical line marked with X [color=black]in h1 below. Would you consider to make SHORT entry @ the...
Currently the 89 is quite flat. It is quite difficult for this pair at this moment.
  • #19,107
  • Mar 12, 2009 10:34am Mar 12, 2009 10:34am
Hello orangeRANGE; I know you're being upset by some responses to your posts and some are saying they're confused. P-L-E-A-S-E!!!!!!!!!! DON'T BE DISCOURAGED. Likely that their response to your mail was not intended to get you upset or discourage you. MAYBE they didn't just deliver their responses appropriately and I think they are not pleased also with the way everything is turning out. PLEASE, just keep on doing the good work. Though I'm not really into the one-hour chart yet, but some of your posts and your response to one one or two of my posts have been helpful. Maybe few are confused, but I think many more look forward to having your posts on board. Know in life, you'll meet some of these things and few responses to your post in a manner which you do not like should not get you off. Quite a number of forum members, previously, might have gone through this, but their perseverance has made and is still making others and newcomers learn a great deal. I believe your posts have been helpful to you also. Let the patience that see you through your trades see you through your posts also. Always remember, QUITTERS NEVER WIN, AND WINNERS NEVER QUIT. KEEP DOING THE GOOD WORK. CHEERS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! -------------------------------------------- GOD, the author of all knowledge and wisdom.
  • #19,108
  • Mar 12, 2009 11:25am Mar 12, 2009 11:25am
Quoting saka
Differnt session use differnt strategy. Evern for Phillip's strategy, we still have many sub-strategies, at strong bullish/bearish trend we can use 1h even 5min to enter. at consolidation we can do CT and 1h.

Any way, a long term view must be in our mind
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Wow Saka. It has been a few months since i last visited this thread. Good to see you around. I have had success with 4HR macd but due to some reasons I couldnt trade Forex for a while (that sucks). I'll be back in full force soon!

Happy Pippin!
  • #19,109
  • Mar 12, 2009 1:05pm Mar 12, 2009 1:05pm
Quick post here before I get going,

The Eur seems to be establishing a trend to the upside, at least maybe to the 89sma on the Daily chart. Price had broken the 89sma came back to it and has been riding the 21ema. I did not enter as I saw the 200sma and wanted to see how price reacts around it and price broke above it came back retested it and moved away and that is where I made my entry. You can see on the 4H, the upward arrow shows the candle I entered within. I switched to the 1H to get in early on the 4H candle and you can see my entry after the dotted purple line.
Before I could put in my order, price had shot up and I managed to close 2 of my lots manually as I had a mental target and then my third lot hit my initial target of just under 1.2900 and I have my last lot at BE and will let this one run.

Edit:
So far over 100 pips banked and letting the rest run.

I wanted to emphasize the rules of entry and that the MACD signal was basically non existent when making my decision, it is only used to pull the trigger after all other research is done and your research leads to a high probability trade and then and only then you may take a look at the MACD to pull the trigger. As Phillip has stated, taking the high probability trades, you will have a very good chance of growing your account over time. I would like to point out that it is not bad to take counter trend trades but you must be very careful and wait for the high probability ones. In the Last 3 months, I have only done 2 counter trend trades with the last one being the Usd/Jpy trade that I posted yesterday.

Have a great day everyone
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,110
  • Mar 12, 2009 2:05pm Mar 12, 2009 2:05pm
Good evening everyone!

It's seems to me that the 1 hour entries OrangeRange does is the kind of adjustment the original system to this high volatile times. Everyone sees that EURO is not the as it was in 2007 or any previous year. I'm not good at fundametals but it might be for the reason of a issuance a lot of new cash money by central banks or smth like this.
Before the crysis i used used to take small TC signal 4 hour candles that were made of 15 - 40 pips. Nowadays 4 hour signal candles that consist of hundreds of pips scare me. Probably we must adjust to more aggresive trading using the 1 hour based on 4 hour rhytm.
BE CAREFUL with this new EURO "uptrend". Because I think the daily charts are still not BULLISH ones. I decided to close my EURO long starting from 2500 not waiting for the 1.3000 level.

Good luck!
  • #19,111
  • Mar 12, 2009 3:28pm Mar 12, 2009 3:28pm
Quoting time1300
Quick post here before I get going,

The Eur seems to be establishing a trend to the upside, at least maybe to the 89sma on the Daily chart....
Congrats time for your pips... I was still sleeping during that time, and couldn't manage into the trade... well, maybe some other time...
  • #19,112
  • Mar 12, 2009 3:31pm Mar 12, 2009 3:31pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hello all...
I am sorry but I am posting this because I don't want to let these 2 guys down...

So fishmen and Keus...

I see that MAYBE we can be in a good LONG position for this pair sometime around next week onwards. Please look your h4 carefully. See how the MAs "behaviours" around the price. And also look at the strength of the res TL as well.

Question:-
Look at aqua vertical line marked with X [color=black]in h1 below. Would you consider to make SHORT entry @ the...
Orange, nobody is asking you, or wants you, to quit posting. Many people, including myself, learn from your posts. WG's intent was to keep this thread as closely related to 4HR system as possible. That's not an indictment of you or your trading. As I was going through the thread learning the system (still am) I couldn't figure out your entry as it didn't appear to be based on the 4HR system as I currently understand it.

As a relative newcomer to this thread, I think it would be good for other newcomers if you, and anyone else not strictly following the method, to write that when you describe the entry. Maybe something like "not trending but am still taking trade because......". Just a suggestion.
  • #19,113
  • Mar 12, 2009 3:43pm Mar 12, 2009 3:43pm
I wanted to give another example of counter trend trades that might be in the making. This is on the GBP/USD which I do not regularly trade. I wanted to show you guys the inverse head and shoulders I have noticed at the lows and price has closed above the 21sma and broken that daily bottom channel line and is trying to retest it again where the 21ema also sits.

According to the rules of our method, when price closes beyond the 21ema after an established trend, price usually retests it before moving away and sometimes it could be a fake out. But as our rules, when price closes beyond the 21ema which in this case it has, then price retests it which again it seems to be doing and then moves away from it to and trys for the 89sma.

In my opinion, this would be a high probability trade as there are many confluences of events to justify our counter trend trade. Also the head and shoulder formation and our price rules.

Notice that I never mentioned the MACD signal in my approach to analyze the trade. I will however when ready to pull the trigger, confirm with the MACD as that is my final checklist that I check before my entry.

I am not suggesting anyone trade scenerio but I wanted to use a formation in the making where we all can follow it. There might be a chance of price coming back down again and so nothing is for certain but with practice, patience and proper money management, one can detect and manage their trade accordingly.
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,114
  • Mar 12, 2009 4:28pm Mar 12, 2009 4:28pm
I expect this pair will come down. Yesterday. there is a breakout of the head shoulder, descending triangle (light blue shadow) as well. Moved downward strongly breaking 89. I measured the high of the sHs, expecting it to come down to around 95, but finally it stopped at 95.77. As rule say, when price break through 89, it will tend to come back to 21 then move on in that direction. The price did moved back to 21 and test a TL. Now again it closed below 21, going to show a TC pattern. I am preparing to trigger a short on H1 when ADX cross and show red.

Am I right? I am new. Any comments are welcome. Thanks
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  • #19,115
  • Mar 12, 2009 4:32pm Mar 12, 2009 4:32pm
Quoting time1300
I wanted to give another example of counter trend trades that might be in the making....
So exciting. How to prepare for this breakout? As I learned somewhere, we should position ourselves above the neckline. Is it correct?
  • #19,116
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:16pm Mar 12, 2009 5:16pm
Best way in my opinion is to watch for a TC on H4 or suitable similar entry on H1. If it sets itself up, it's quite possible that you will also see a 3 Sisters setup / pattern at the same time, which can give you some more confidence in the trade (2 of the sisters are already formed from the last 2 swing lows). If you have a look back through history, the 3 Sisters pattern is very reliable.

Good first target is 89, so make sure R:R is suitable. That also corresponds with 21 on daily.


Quoting fishmen
So exciting. How to prepare for this breakout? As I learned somewhere, we should position ourselves above the neckline. Is it correct?
  • #19,117
  • Mar 12, 2009 7:59pm Mar 12, 2009 7:59pm
As it broke SMA200 yesterday night with retracing to EMA21, today EU has the very important position. as descripted on the chart. above is EMA365, and below is EMA8. if it goes up to EMA365 then we could short it and set EMA8 as the first target. Vice versa if it finds supports on EMA8 at the Euro time, we could try to long it.
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  • #19,118
  • Mar 12, 2009 9:20pm Mar 12, 2009 9:20pm
Hi all...
Nobody talks about this pair. But I am still taking this one using h1 entry. And here are my typical simple explaination.

This is my first entry @ 0.6544.
SL = 74pips (3pips below 200sma and 21ema). Very large to risk. Will have to use 2 or 3 stage entries strategy this time....of trailing stops strategy.

No TP decided yet. Still in open position.

REASON FOR LONG:
1)Price already beyond TL and fib 61.8%; and
2)Price > 8 > 21 > 89

Not a good entry but I am comfort with this position for now....

Question: Did I break the rules?

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,119
  • Mar 12, 2009 10:18pm Mar 12, 2009 10:18pm
Hi Orange,

Hope you don't mind me posting a quick comment here.
I definitely don't want to put you off your trade, as we all need to trade our own plans... but wanted to point out some things to be wary of.

I have a pin bar on my H4 at upper end of what I would consider to be a range (see multiple tests of resistance)..suggests to me to be looking / taking shorts rather than longs.

Please be wary. And interested to hear your thoughts.

Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...
Nobody talks about this pair. But I am still taking this one using h1 entry. And here are my typical simple explaination.

This is my first entry @ 0.6544.
SL = 74pips (3pips below 200sma and 21ema). Very large to risk. Will have to use 2 or 3 stage entries strategy this time....of trailing stops strategy.

No TP decided yet. Still in open position.

REASON FOR LONG:
1)Price already beyond TL and fib 61.8%; and
2)Price > 8 > 21 > 89

Not a good entry but I am comfort with this position for now....

[b][size=3]Question: Did...
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  • #19,120
  • Mar 12, 2009 10:27pm Mar 12, 2009 10:27pm
My 2nd entry details:-

LONG for the 2nd lot @ 0.6524
(40% retracement from First Entry @ 0.6544)

SL @ 0.6470 = SL from First Entry (54pips risk)

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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