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  • #341
  • Edited 12:11pm Mar 12, 2009 12:07pm | Edited 12:11pm
Quoting strat
Dan,

Are you a giant or something?

Huge bounces and now huge boxes

That's a 550 Gladys Knight box, Dan, so at least a couple of good Daily trades in there.

You're getting cold now

Rock n Roll,
Strat
It would be into/around a 50% Fib, and we'd be looking for a retracement long of that level, not a short?
  • #342
  • Edited 6:31pm Mar 12, 2009 12:21pm | Edited 6:31pm
Quoting AstonDan
It would be into/around a 50% Fib, and we'd be looking for a retracement long of that level, not a short?
You are pulling your fibs wrong if you get 50% retrace at that level

All these answers are telling me we have LOTS of work to do.

Come on you posters and lurkers, I'm not giving it to you that easy.

I will give you all a HUGE hint - the answer is printed in black and white on this thread.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #343
  • Edited 12:36pm Mar 12, 2009 12:26pm | Edited 12:36pm
I got stopped out yesterday for a much smaller profit than I had been hoping to get. When we had the second move that stretched out down to the 1.3660 level on Tuesday, I figured I would be safe moving up my S/L to protect at least 100 pips of profit. I didn't think price would spike back up 200+ pips but sure enough that's what happened and took me out.

I have to get used to the higher time frames and just how much it can retrace before continuing on. Tuesday's doji and Wednesday's hammer bars also got me thinking price might reverse and go higher. Save for spending a few hours down around the 3740 level today (which had me cursing my stop movement!), it seems like we're hanging out in the 38xx range with the possibility or revisiting 3900. At this point, I'm thinking we'll see little action tomorrow so that might be the jumping off point for a move lower to 3550 or so next week.

I haven't added the 20/50 SMAs to my charts. They may work for some, but I've never had good experiences when using those types of indicators. I can't see them as reliable predictors due to their very nature - they're past performance indicators. Not knocking them for those that do use them to success, just not my cup of tea.

edit: I'm prepping an AUD/USD trade long tonight. Yesterday's bar confirmed the breakout above the descending triangle price had formed and today has re-tested the .6450 area as support. This is a potential big one since we're near the pair's lowest since mid-2003.
  • #344
  • Mar 12, 2009 12:27pm Mar 12, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting Baba G
I thought that was gold i coulnd quite see and i dont do candles(sorry Strat) i do bars.Its just what your used to.

Im well aware im slightly different in my charting to Strat but all the roads lead to Rome..Please discard things i say in regards to MY take on things and price action.Strats got a killer system here.Its to late for me im all done but its important you stay with one thing.Guys i wouldnt know what to do with a 20 or 50 if it jumped up and slapped me on both cheeks....G

or a shooting bull pin star outside hammer?lol
Gianni,

Candles or OHLC bars - it doesn't matter as long as you know how to read them.

Your input here on price action is invaluable since it is still price action and as you say, we are all working towards the same goal. Please continue to enlighten us with your take on price action.

Arrivederci,

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #345
  • Mar 12, 2009 12:40pm Mar 12, 2009 12:40pm
Quoting strat

All these answers are telling me have LOTS of work to do.


Rock n Roll,
Strat
Last go by me:

There’s a major support level around 97?
  • #346
  • Mar 12, 2009 1:47pm Mar 12, 2009 1:47pm
great great posts here!!!

after 2 years of struggles, now it finally makes sense to me...
i finally found the missing link!!

many many thanks
There's a POT of GOLD at the END of the RAINBOW!!
  • #347
  • Mar 12, 2009 1:54pm Mar 12, 2009 1:54pm
USD/JPY just went through a Moving Averages crossover. The daily 50 just crossed up over the BOSS 20. This puts both the 20 and the 50 up and over BOSS 20 with the differential between them increasing. Volume is already higher for this candle, and price has been rejected by the 20 with only 2 hours until closing. The candle looks like it will close a hammer, or pin, with a fairly long wick suggesting a long order should be in place above the high. The first target would be the 99.30 area, where price ran into resistance a week ago.

Correct me please if I am wrong, but from reading the thread it sounds like a short at 97.25 would have been ignorant, as a vast majority of signs point bullish.
Bang.
  • #348
  • Mar 12, 2009 1:58pm Mar 12, 2009 1:58pm
i'll say USD/JPY had been bullish since early feb, it's just retracing and seem to continue with the main trend now...

checked EUR/USD as well... seems reversing now ?!

as per last years "funny mental", eur is rising in tandem with oil....
There's a POT of GOLD at the END of the RAINBOW!!
  • #349
  • Edited 2:45pm Mar 12, 2009 2:22pm | Edited 2:45pm
GBP/JPY: Price has fallen in between the 20 and 50, signalling indecision and lack of direction. With 2 hours left until close, this candle will most likely close as a hammer, or piercing line, or even a bullish engulfing, signalling bullish sentiment. Price was supported near the low of the 300 pip wick by the 50, and is also right on top of BOSS 20. Volume is already substantially higher than that of the last candle which means more traders stepped in with sufficient strength to put a stop to the bear raid. Fib retracements from the Feb 12th to Feb 25th move show price has also been supported almost exactly by the 50% fibonacci. The long entry order would be placed above 136.60. In my mind, this long setup was easier to hit than AstonDan's parked Aston Martin. Here is a chart to illustrate:

http://img261.imageshack.us/img261/8...longsetupm.gif

A good target for starters would be resistance at 137.40. By extension, look toward resistance around the 141.00 area. A stoploss could be placed right below that 50% fibonacci at 133.70, if you don't want to put it at the bottom of that 300 pip wick!

Please correct me if this analysis was way out of the ballpark.
Bang.
  • #350
  • Mar 12, 2009 3:07pm Mar 12, 2009 3:07pm
Quoting AminAS
In my mind, this long setup was easier to hit than AstonDan's parked Aston Martin.
Attached Image


[Gulp]
  • #351
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:39pm Mar 12, 2009 5:39pm
Quoting AstonDan
Last go by me:

There’s a major support level around 97?
No, but thanks ever so much for giving it a shot.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #352
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:40pm Mar 12, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting haribon2008
great great posts here!!!

after 2 years of struggles, now it finally makes sense to me...
i finally found the missing link!!

many many thanks
Glad you could join us - tell us about some of your struggles

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #353
  • Mar 12, 2009 5:59pm Mar 12, 2009 5:59pm
Quoting AminAS
USD/JPY just went through a Moving Averages crossover. The daily 50 just crossed up over the BOSS 20. This puts both the 20 and the 50 up and over BOSS 20 with the differential between them increasing. Volume is already higher for this candle, and price has been rejected by the 20 with only 2 hours until closing. The candle looks like it will close a hammer, or pin, with a fairly long wick suggesting a long order should be in place above the high. The first target would be the 99.30 area, where price ran into resistance a week ago.

Correct me...
Great thought process - well done - your light is beginning to shine!
Now for specifics:
You've got your moving averages screwed up somehow. The 20 and 50 (Daily) crossed on Feb 8. The 20 crossed the BOSS 20 on Feb 26 but has no importance or significance as you're mixing up two different time frames.
The BOSS 20 and 50 are on there to tell us what the Weekly is doing without having to toggle backwards and forwards. Only the 20/50 in each time frame have real meaning. The differential between the 20 and 50 is increasing suggesting higher prices.

The March 11 bar was a huge volatile bar on less volume than the little bar the day before on higher volume (on my data). That in itself told us that it was unlikely the down move could be sustained. The March 12 bar is on higher volume though BUT look what happened to it. Where did it close? Where did it go to? What really happened within that 24 hour bar? Can you see the struggle that took place between the buyers and sellers? And who won in that bar? Will whoever won when that bar closed continue their way tomorrow?

Good technical analysis though - you are on your way!

Rock n Roll,
Strat

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #354
  • Edited 6:36pm Mar 12, 2009 6:16pm | Edited 6:36pm
After Cable closed at support yesterday following a neutral doji (my data), todays bar looks like closing above previous resistance (yellow dotted line). This to me would suggest a long play up to the 20EMA, which also happens to be at weekly pivot level.

However, we have had 4 days of increasing volume and i doubt we will see a further increase tomorrow (looking back through volume data - 5 days of increasing volume seems very rare).

Will it take a lot of volume to take price upto this level? Maybe not. Or is it better to SIT AND WAIT, see if it makes the 20 or weekly pivot, and short price back down to support (red dotted line)?

I don't know but would appreciate constructive feedback on my interpretation.

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: cable12march.gif Size: 29 KB
  • #355
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:24pm Mar 12, 2009 6:24pm
Quoting Baba G
I thought that was gold i coulnd quite see and i dont do candles(sorry Strat) i do bars.Its just what your used to.

Im well aware im slightly different in my charting to Strat but all the roads lead to Rome..Please discard things i say in regards to MY take on things and price action.Strats got a killer system here.Its to late for me im all done but its important you stay with one thing.Guys i wouldnt know what to do with a 20 or 50 if it jumped up and slapped me on both cheeks....G

or a shooting bull pin star outside hammer?lol
Why couldn't you see it - is your eyesight going? Are you doing something that affects your eyesight? Hmmm

or maybe Blinded by the Light - now who did that song?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #356
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:31pm Mar 12, 2009 6:31pm
Quoting strat
Why couldn't you see it - is your eyesight going? Are you doing something that affects your eyesight? Hmmm

or maybe Blinded by the Light - now who did that song?

Rock n Roll,
Strat

I do believe manfred Manns Earth Band!!!!
  • #357
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:48pm Mar 12, 2009 6:48pm
I find it interesting that todays price (on my feed) has closed almost to the pip at your 87.52 level!
Make that one more hit ...
  • #358
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:55pm Mar 12, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting thegunslinger
I got stopped out yesterday for a much smaller profit than I had been hoping to get....
tgs, I still get caught out in the same dilemma HOPING it is going to turn into a big trend. Did I write in an earlier post that "HOPE" was not an ingredient in the traders' success recipe? If I am "hoping" for more that means GREED has raised it's ugly head again. Another session in front of the mirror for me and Mark Douglas's book.

You, as are everyone else on here, are entitled to your opinions as long as they are positive and constructive so no problem on the MAs. Before you continue with their rejection though, watch how we use them, what they tell us and the benefits they give us. I have had them on my charts since the first chart I looked at in 1982.

Yes, they lag and yes they are indicators of price history BUT we are not using them in any way shape or form to generate signals as you are probably more familiar with. I have some pretty good MA systems which are very profitable UNTIL they hit the dreaded consolidation and just like everything else in consolidation, (in my opinion), are useles. We also never use them in isolation. They are used as part of our total package in our decision making process.

Again they are almost self fulfilling because just about every bank, institution, trading house, fund uses them to generate ORDERS especially the 20. Get your charts out, put on a 20 and you can see support and resistance but not only that, the elastic band strategy coming in to play. There is a guy on a Forum somewhere that I read, that trades on nothing but how price is attracted to and rejected by the 20.

Also, you would be AMAZED at how LITTLE traders at these places know. They are basically clerks that place orders (HUGE orders) when an alarm comes on telling them an MA has been hit or crossed or whatever but they have the prestige of being called Merchant Wankers.

Spot on analysis with OZ, I agree on an upcoming trend change and was waiting to announce it in my End of Week analysis.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #359
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:57pm Mar 12, 2009 6:57pm
Quoting AminAS
USD/JPY just went through a Moving Averages crossover. The daily 50 just crossed up over the BOSS 20. This puts both the 20 and the 50 up and over BOSS 20 with the differential between them increasing. Volume is already higher for this candle, and price has been rejected by the 20 with only 2 hours until closing. The candle looks like it will close a hammer, or pin, with a fairly long wick suggesting a long order should be in place above the high. The first target would be the 99.30 area, where price ran into resistance a week ago.

Correct me...
All good but nowhere close to the HUGE problem

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #360
  • Mar 12, 2009 6:59pm Mar 12, 2009 6:59pm
Quoting haribon2008
i'll say USD/JPY had been bullish since early feb, it's just retracing and seem to continue with the main trend now...

checked EUR/USD as well... seems reversing now ?!

as per last years "funny mental", eur is rising in tandem with oil....
Good but not even close to the HUGE problem

Surely someone can see it besides me and yes, it is REAL and it is a HUGE problem and not just a figment of my imagination

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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