Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

EU: Already down about 235 pips for the session, it has the look of preparing for the multi-hundred pip drop to complete this H&S formation. The rest of this week, what is left of it, promises to be interesting. If such a drop is in the works, some major consolidation time to prepare positions is required. And that means some crafty PA/volume manipulations, up and down in a manageable range, to coax the herd into buying what the professional traders/market movers want to sell.....

Those are not actual entries, but zones where to pay attention, and what to expect there.
I use BBs for two reasons: one because I only feel safe if I have boundaries (channels are good but sometimes they aren't immediately apparent), the other reason is to be able to pay attention to the charts only when it might be needed (I use Bollitoucher indicator to alert me when BB20-2,5 are touched and so I can be doing other things instead of being glued to the charts). In fact, I trade off 1m charts from 5m trend and 30m overall trend, paying attention to price behaviour at "critical" levels ("sweet-spots" already mentioned earlier on the thread, and more recently the proportional TF grid. On one platform I can use 5 seconds chart to gauge the "feeling" of the market at the moment. MT4 platform (at least mine) has way much less ticks per minute.

Now with AUD/USD which is much trendier, I have to use H1 as main trend along with the other three for "bouncy" levels (median line, SMA34, return from outer BBs-1,5 dev PLUS the critical levels). This pair has an amazing accuracy in respecting the grid in every timeframe. The result of using a slightly higher timeframe has reflected upon my average pip-per-trade (doubled from 5-6 to 12-13).

I hadn't noticed that BBs repainted, I will check but it is not important as my entries are determined by the confluence of the price action in the now, candle patterns (Heiken Ashi give a better feeling), the probability of a return to the mean price (Euro is much better at that, I'm now adjusting to Aud which has a much different behaviour) and what happens near the critical levels (were they touched, crossed, or avoided).

Seems complicated but it is quite simple. Hard to explain though, as I will not take the same action on an apparently similar pattern automatically, but reassess the whole in the now. And of course, I also have my losing streaks when I am not fully focused and fail to interpret the main trend, or the market decides to change its behaviour so I have to re-learn what is happening from now on for a while. But the smallest typical behaviour is always the same (80%) so it's a good ratio IMO. I am yet to test if my extreme short-term approach works the same way on higher TFs. Have to build my account first to assume much higher risks (it's the same percentage, similar to your MM approach, but can't be done with the minimum position size allowed in one of my accounts).

BTW, the Todd Krueger article quoted a few posts behind sums up most of my views (except for the volume thing, though I guess volume can be measured through impulse so it would be equivalent).

Give me time to formulate my answer, I'm home alone with the little ones so it is not the right time for me at the moment. Putting this into words {in a neat little package} is difficult, for me anyway. It's like trying to put my mere 6+ years of experience into a few paragraphs {hate to think how 20+ years would be to articulate}. One could write 10 pages of what goes through their mind in a minute.

Market movers cannot and I repeat cannot, manipulate every single time frame. The larger the time frame, the harder it is to manipulate. The smaller time frames, any Joe Blow with a few mill and a bit of leverage can shunt the price on low liquidity.

It is why trading smaller time frames is much more difficult and why perhaps you think this way, because they are much easier to manipulate and catch you out. Trading off daily timeframes do not see reversals in the matter of seconds. Not in my short history anyway. To me, it's like watching paint dry.

I don't use volume too often either, I do however use it at times. Metatrader volume is unreliable as it is only broker tick volume, not that of the major players....

I have yet to see a reversal occur without PA behind it {excluding news time}. Many I have overseen, but on reflection, it was always clear. Even if it is the tick chart that signalled it.

EJ two part scalp trade closed.

If you use open values (as I do) they don't repaint.

The formula is actually really simple - just one moving average and bands are it's standard deviations. Just programmed my BB indicator again yesterday to remove sunday bars from calculation (did this for MANY indicators, still few to go) - now my methods work as well on those brokers with sunday bar as those without.

Closed partial profit at +100 and leaving the rest to run untill the bottom of the channel or my stop at b/e+2 will be reached.

The banks will (almost) always win.

But... the risk of a greater participation of retail traders in the overall daily turnover is that they are gradually becoming smarter and able to detect what lies behind the apparently random behaviour of prices. And the power of leverage in the hands of smarter retail traders puts them at the same level or maybe better (I don't think that banks can leverage above 20 or 30:1, mostly because they are working with customers' funds...). Banks are very similar to Ponzi schemes, BTW. One dollar that you deposit increases their credit capacity tenfold. Or higher (a more accurate description can be found here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVkFb26u9g8 ) As an example, not the exact figures but you get the idea, you deposit one dollar, then they are able to make a 10 dollars loan to your neighbour , earning an additional 2,5 dollars because of the interest paid (roughly 25% yearly here in Venezuela). That's a 11.5:1 ratio, 11.5 dollars benefit on your money, they give you back 1.5 dollars (passive interest, around 15% yearly) and they get to keep 10 times what you deposited (minus operation expenses, plus profits on speculation, minus losses on speculation).
Interesting indeed.

Big Boys play one with the other (one turn for you, one turn for me, let's switch places, now we go again... etc.) as they have common interests in that everyone wins a little, loses a little, mostly breaking even in the end.

Apparently the proportion of retail traders accounts for very little (can't find an accurate actual figure but I have read it's around 20% of turnover?) but what happens if the other participants are mostly even? Commercials are balanced, as there is a needed equilibrium in supply and demand, and there is no interest in speculation: currencies are bought when needed to perform transactions, at any given price at the moment. Maybe there are some speculators among them, but mostly it is a neutral ground, IMO.

Banks and Big Boys are a moving neutral ground, in that they will push the balance in one side just to revert back after a while to the opposite side. They have to make their daily profits, so they move the market around.

Bill Williams in his Trading Chaos mentioned that barely a very tiny dominance of one side (like 0.01%, I don't remember the exact figure he used) will initiate a trend reversal.

Have we, the little guys, really such a small influence in how the prices will behave? Banks can see where all orders are sitting. They can precisely time and measure the wavelength and scope of a move.

Sorry, I was interrupted and lost the course of my thought process. Will continue later on. Food for thought...

Disclaimer: The above only reflects my limited point of view about how the markets behave and is in no way a definite statement of reality. If anyone has a more accurate source of information about this, I will be very eager to correct any mistakes.

Dear ak4x,

is now more clear the chart of yesterday?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost.php?p=2595374&postcount=289

Great trade D

Thankyou Cobra

G' morning traders... I see we're still hanging a'rd the Daily Pivot (2771ish).

As I ponder what the end of week may bring, in light of all that Hasn't happened... no breakout North or South yet, I can't help but remember a comment Acumen made last week...

"I think Thursdays are the new Fridays..." Ponder and adjust Outlook as you see fit.

I have errands and stuff to deal with and one small long from just above the 2748 Quarter Pivot... It's a small one with stop just below M2 at 2725. Smaller order, wider stop. BTW, totally enjoying the discussion and insights, and Clearly, Driver has been tearing it up...

I'm off for coffee, cheese danish and my Honey-do's. Trade careful.

Typing a'rd the cheese danish crumbs on my keyboard...

New 1hr chart as of Noon CST...

I may be out on a limb here, but I've got 3 longs running in the green, first cut taken off to pay for the trade, and only one tp of the central at 2834 set, the other 2 to run hopefuly up to the fibs and/or pivots. I'd REALLY like to see R1 at 2926 tested at minimum, break and clear at best, to help confirm this move up at least for this week, but we're going into the final session per market as of this evening US time.

That would go along ways towards establishing it imo. Failure to break M3 at 2850ish (sometime this week) will keep me pretty spooked at least for the timing of this surge up.

We might need to go into next week for more clarity. And we've all said that for how many weeks now??

Well some profits locked and I'm ready for this week to end...

Target hit, had an add-on long from a retrace to 2805 on my curent 5m ascending TL at that I entered after the xx00 figure and the TL held... also with a TP of the Central.

So 2 longs running from 2758 and 2786... profits taken and +pips locked. One TP for the higher trade set at 2986 for an even 100 pips if hit.

Why that number? It's in the middle of a S/R zone roughly the QP between M4 and R2 ((2972/3017)) and more importantly it's a pretty decent Hzl (horizontal) S/R level from some time back.

It's also the exact 150% extension of my current 1hr swing fib shown on the chart below. Hopefully, we'll see if this thing has the gas to go the distance this week or no

Chart is 1hr

2886 Target essentially reached... ((give it a moment))

Breach of this green TL and the circled R1 gets the Hairy Eyeball next... after fighting the xx00 figure of course... the most dangerous time of the day.

Just when you think it won't it will, and just when you think... well time out the brain, and watch the PA...

Note the measly 10 pip difference between the 1hr swing (2886)and the much larger 2hr swing (2896). Anchors for that one are 2455/2750. THAT could be a tuff nut...

Note: target reset to 2896

And done...

Bumping a serious TL atm and holding two longs... original 2758 and 2817 add-on.

Target for the add-on is R1 at 2926

And you can't see any of them, just where they were...

This is a week to re-evaluate everthing we know or think we know, and at some point in the process, actually decide Just How Nimble we really are.

We ain't seen nuthin yet.

NY closes and this Bull run is in the books with one hour left on my Daily candle..

I am out for the week except for managing 40% of a remaining short from 2758... with 60% taken off at R1 for 168 pips. A very good day full of short term Longs and only a few small stop outs, that more than compensated for the Hard Labor of yesterday and last night. Bruises and cuts are healing nicely...

I will be nursing a good Merlot and having dinner with "The One" tonite during Asia ((Thanks for that wonderful term Bemac))

Catch you guys later this evening.

Hey AK, Hopefully this s#it is getting easier but Never forget why you are doing it.

Nope. Did not happen. Ran down on volume higher than relative average, but then stopped cold and on decreasing volume began the trek up again. As neared the highs, high volume came in once more. This smacks of large scale selling, which at times drives the price down until it gets too low and the sellers back off, and at times comes back as the PA makes final push towards what later turns out to me a "high" area in the price. Could it be that a very large shifting of positions to shorts is being enacted, spread well out over much time (days, weeks) here?

Same situation here as with EU.....poised for a drop, but then suddenly reversed. Here I clearly see on the H4 chart that during the reversal back up, a tremendous relative volume spike occurs in the top half of the trek up! Are we to believe the greatest amount of buying was at the topside, or that the price was pumped up so the market movers could start huge shorting again once the price and momentum got up to where they wanted it? As with my comment on EU, could there be a massive campaign by marker movers to shift positions to shorts, spread out over much time....days, weeks. And these moves are manipulated by them to keep the PA action up while they do so?