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Hedge trading spieler system derived from futures spread trading

  • #2,421
  • Mar 3, 2009 8:34am Mar 3, 2009 8:34am
Spiler EA work very well in live accont and in demo accont
But have a trouble
Same times this expert open the same lot when repeat the Range
If the range is 0.25 and open 0.10 lot for example
After that go up 0.28 and go dow to 0.25 again it open again the same lot 0.10
I saw it happend three times in the same day
So I have 0.10 lot price x
After that 0.10 lot price x again when repeat de range
After that 0.10 lot price x again when repeat the range again
This expert I think is better he do not it because is dangerous
Can anybore fix this truble?
  • #2,422
  • Mar 5, 2009 6:24am Mar 5, 2009 6:24am
Quoting SwingMan
If you will to check Spielers trading divergence ratios, I can tell you they are OK!

I have programmed a new indicator: "SpielerHedge DivergenceStdDev_v1". It draws the mean of deviations, plus one and two standard deviations.

As you can see, Spielers figures (0.20% and 0.40%) correspond to the mean and to the second standard deviation.

Mathematically we can also trade the first standard deviation!
.

Can I left this way?
double pullbacks[] = {0, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.50, 0.50, 1, 1, 2};
I delete and I left down
double pullbacks[] = {0};
In this way will not repeat the same pullback?
I want this expert open only a one order for each Range
If is 0,25 open only 0,25
If have a pullback I do not want that open other order
Is it correct?
  • #2,423
  • Mar 5, 2009 6:25am Mar 5, 2009 6:25am
Quoting snchan
Hi Archie,

Are you still testing on this EA? I have been testing it since 5 Feb 09. Most of the time profit but the problem arise when there is offquote from broker when the EA only open 1 currency and the other one not opened due to offquote.
Can I left this way?
double pullbacks[] = {0, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.50, 0.50, 1, 1, 2};
I delete and I left down
double pullbacks[] = {0};
In this way will not repeat the same pullback?
I want this expert open only a one order for each Range
If is 0,25 open only 0,25
If have a pullback I do not want that open other order
Is it correct?
  • #2,424
  • Mar 5, 2009 7:52am Mar 5, 2009 7:52am
Quoting daceterito
Can I left this way?
double pullbacks[] = {0, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.25, 0.50, 0.50, 1, 1, 2};
I delete and I left down
double pullbacks[] = {0};
In this way will not repeat the same pullback?
I want this expert open only a one order for each Range
If is 0,25 open only 0,25
If have a pullback I do not want that open other order
Is it correct?
Version 2.8.1 only open 1 set of order at a time when it reaches the divergence limit until the orders are closed. Then it will wait for the next entry signal. The only problem is offquote from brokers.
  • #2,425
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:56pm Mar 5, 2009 3:56pm
Does anyone have an excel template to measure the deviation of USDCHF as per Spieler's system? My trading platform is the standard FXCM platform and I don't think I can download the EA that is being shared on this thread.

What formula do I use to measure whether USDCHF or EURUSD is -25%-+25% etc.?

Thanks!
  • #2,426
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:01am Mar 6, 2009 6:01am
Quoting karlmonte
Does anyone have an excel template to measure the deviation of USDCHF as per Spieler's system? My trading platform is the standard FXCM platform and I don't think I can download the EA that is being shared on this thread.

What formula do I use to measure whether USDCHF or EURUSD is -25%-+25% etc.?

Thanks!
As I understand it you aren't looking for whether or not the USDCHF or EURUSD are +/- .25%. Rather you are looking at whether or not the EURCHF is +/- .25%. An easy way to track this is as I write the EURCHF is trading at 1.4664 so .25% of that would be about 37 pips. Just set alerts to sound or whatever when the EURCHF moves +/- 37 pips from your starting point. Then you manually enter trades on the EURUSD and USDCHF.
  • #2,427
  • Mar 8, 2009 7:32pm Mar 8, 2009 7:32pm
Quoting karlmonte
Does anyone have an excel template to measure the deviation of USDCHF as per Spieler's system? My trading platform is the standard FXCM platform and I don't think I can download the EA that is being shared on this thread.

What formula do I use to measure whether USDCHF or EURUSD is -25%-+25% etc.?

Thanks!
Search the attachments. It was posted as CrossHedgeCalc.xls
  • #2,428
  • Mar 12, 2009 3:18am Mar 12, 2009 3:18am
spieler seem to have gone quiet but I must say this is one of the most valuable thread that that really changed and took my trading to a higher level.

Thanks spieler for your contribution.
  • #2,429
  • Mar 12, 2009 10:24am Mar 12, 2009 10:24am
Quoting dragosd1
Is going DOWN!
That is how the game starts
  • #2,430
  • Edited 3:16pm Mar 12, 2009 11:09am | Edited 3:16pm
I wonder how you managed a move like today. Eur/Chf move to aprox +3.60%. If somebody trade today i would be very grateful if he post his entries.
Thank you in advance and sorry for my bad english!
  • #2,431
  • Mar 16, 2009 3:20pm Mar 16, 2009 3:20pm
Quoting raad
I wonder how you managed a move like today. Eur/Chf move to aprox +3.60%. If somebody trade today i would be very grateful if he post his entries.
Thank you in advance and sorry for my bad english!
Started my live account last Monday, just in time to be on the wrong side of that EUR/CHF, or USD/CHF to be accurate, move on Thursday. Lesson learned, when the price is moving violently I need to make sure I know why before I add positions. Was trading on my phone so didn't realize all that was going on. I'm still holding my shorts, trimming when the opportunity presents itself. More importantly I started trading per the system again on Friday. Still booking profitable trades, just not as much wiggle room as I'd like. Seems to me that Thursday was an example of what can happen the 3% of the time that the two pairs aren't negatively correlated, if the EUR/USD would have traded the opposite way like usuall when there's a big move then this would be a non-event.
  • #2,432
  • Mar 17, 2009 1:41am Mar 17, 2009 1:41am
well i got caught in the same strong movement last week.

i read the thread over and over and understand that in these strong trending times in order to survive we have:

- to externalize some profit as we might never come back at the 0% point from last week ( i missed several moves sadly - but i am still learning )

- be ready for a recorellation (actually i am hoping for recorellation...)

- trade according to plan...

if any of you have other ideas...

Please feel free to contribute.

I wish Spieler could be around to shed some light and guide us...

SPIELER IF YOU READ THIS PLEASE COME, WE NEED YOUR WISDOM

Cheers
P.
  • #2,433
  • Mar 17, 2009 4:19am Mar 17, 2009 4:19am
hi guys

This chf moove was the widest ever since euro exists.
When you see that kind of moove better to do nothing before knowing what s happening so need real time news.

Dont have to add to position , i dont think you had time to do that
  • #2,434
  • Mar 17, 2009 4:24am Mar 17, 2009 4:24am
Good to hear from you spieler!!
Vincit qui se vincit.
  • #2,435
  • Mar 17, 2009 7:37am Mar 17, 2009 7:37am
hi,

I would like to learn this system fully and dedicate my trading career to
only this one.

Can anybody help me figure out position sizing?

I have an account with $600.

It's a mini account with 200:1 leverage.

also, I've read the first post many times.

when do we get out? when we have some profit? or when the
eur/chf divergence is back to zero?

thanx, and sorry if you've answered these questions somewhere else
on the forum.

wishing you a happier, healthier, and longer life,

PanguFX
  • #2,436
  • Mar 17, 2009 8:39am Mar 17, 2009 8:39am
Spieler,

It is so good to have you back. I learned so much about trading FX thanks to you. We all know here (at least for those following this thread since the begginning) that you are a very wise and knowledgeable trader... Learning from you and also from some other contributors to this thread has been a blessing.

I hope you can share some of your wisdom again. May I ask you, how have you been trading these last weeks your system:

- have you been profitable lately, with all the volatility since Sept/Oct 08?

- how wide are each of your levels theses days? standard 0.25% (as at the beginning of this thread) or wider due to increase volatility? (I am using 0.4% levels after fine tuning, my levels are lot1:0.4% lot2:0.8% lot3:1.2% lot4:2% etc...)

- also I had another question, when you use wider levels (due to increase volatility) do you also increase the 'take profit' levels. Example: if you had 1 lot at 0.4% another lot at 0.8% do you exit that 2nd lot at a pullback of 0.4% or do you exit at the usual 0.25% pullback?

- do you see when we will be back to normal levels (0.25%), are you using any indicator to measure this ? I know you said at the beginning of this thread that you dont use any indicators...

In my case I can say I have been trading your system sucessfully in 'normal' markets: trading in range or trending slowly (not like last week)...

Nice to see you back spieler,

Cheers,
BD
  • #2,437
  • Mar 17, 2009 8:48am Mar 17, 2009 8:48am
pangu fx:

mate you will have to do your part of the job if you want to understand this system. First you should try to read the first 100 pages of this thread....


then for a quick reference i wrote a little summary about this system, you can find it under the following link:

http://www.forexfactory.com/attachme...02008%207:31pm

hope it helps,
BD
  • #2,438
  • Mar 17, 2009 10:37am Mar 17, 2009 10:37am
I have continued to trade my system with good profits on the last months making some adjustments just to take into account the increase in volatility.

I will be back to normal when eur/usd ATR will be back in the 100pips per day moove zone and stop to be in the 200 one
I am waiting now double than before meaning 0,50 instead of 0,25 to start building a position and so on . All the rest remains same ( conditions of exit idem but sometimes when working a loosing position i can close earlier always the safety reason).
Will develop later
  • #2,439
  • Mar 17, 2009 3:00pm Mar 17, 2009 3:00pm
Welcome back spieler!

glad do read your posts again and your advices.

Best Regards
  • #2,440
  • Mar 18, 2009 3:05am Mar 18, 2009 3:05am
Hello, Spieler! Welcome back.One thing I'd like to know is the .25%, is that based off the % daily move in EURCHF or the % weekly move in EURCHF? I ask because if volatilities have spiked, you will want to up that .25% to .4% perhaps or even higher. But to determine to what level you will move that .25%, you need to know to what is it compared. For example, the 100 period ATR on a daily EURCHF right now is 154 while the 10 ATR is 161; on a weekly, the 100 period is 214 and the 10 period is 340. So if you take the 100 period ATR to be what's "normal", you see that the short term volatility as measured by the 10 ATR vs. the 100 ATR is elevated. So, if you say that .25% is to 214 (the weekly 100 period ATR) as X is to 340 (the elevated weekly volatility as measured by the 10 period ATR), and you solve for X, so X will equal .397%, i.e. .40%. But if you solve for X on the daily, so X will equal .26%. And if you solve for X on a monthly level, X will equal .43%. So, which do you use?
Nextly, I wonder whether it wouldn't be better to take the hit after a certain amount of range rather than trading without stops; but that approach has its own difficult questions to answer: how much range, how much $ risk, etc. Your thoughts, as always, are most welcome.

My best to you and yours,

Lenoxer
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