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  • #9,641
  • Mar 11, 2009 10:21am Mar 11, 2009 10:21am
Quoting sam0182
I took note of this level when reviewing the E/U to see where it may come back to after trying 1.282 but I would not personally take it. Looks pretty short term and while I would expect some bounce, it doesn't look like anything worthy.

I prefer bounces which have been demonstrated as S&R previously...this level was blown away after yesterdays run up to 1.28ish.

Nice to have the fib confluence though.

Price looks to be backing down now after another attempt at 1.282ish. You're going to take the long on 1.2733?
I thinkg im going to take it, in case the price returns, but Im have to see the way that the price returns
  • #9,642
  • Mar 11, 2009 2:20pm Mar 11, 2009 2:20pm
Upcoming levels on the GBP/USD...

First level being at the 38% of the recent decline, spike high on the 4hr & 1.39 round number.

Second and stronger level/range right before and at the 50% of the recent decline, previous spike lows/support @ 1.395-1.398.

Screenshot below...

http://img522.imageshack.us/img522/1126/34023909.png

Thoughts?
  • #9,643
  • Mar 11, 2009 2:21pm Mar 11, 2009 2:21pm
lafedgar,

Congrats on your first post in here, i think it was a good call. from my chart it was 10 pips away at swing low. was your trade triggered. Placing you entry is a art, sometimes its triggered sometimes its not.

Let us know how its going


warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,644
  • Mar 11, 2009 3:54pm Mar 11, 2009 3:54pm
1.3880 sell stop triggered gbp/usd
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,645
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:13pm Mar 11, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting bigwal
1.3880 sell stop triggered gbp/usd
Nicely done.

I was a little high in my levels and the time was off, being at the close of NYC session...but it looks to have paid off.

You're targeting 1.3845-40?
  • #9,646
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:16pm Mar 11, 2009 4:16pm
Quoting BenScoobert
AUDNZD sell, take a look for yourself and see why it is due a long way south
Thanks for this tip the other day, Ben. I shorted AUD/NZD from around 1.2800 and after hanging on through the retrenchment I'm gratified to see the huge dive the AUD just took.

Question - how long do you plan to hold on to your short?
  • #9,647
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:56pm Mar 11, 2009 5:56pm
Quoting bigwal
usd/jpy
gbp/jpy
nzd/usd

All above im watching , weekly.

Aud/nzd weekly, interesting ?
out of all of these aud/nzd 1.2830 sell stop was taken

1.2708 1st target
1.2487 2nd target

Are we looking at the 1.20xx area in the long run, i dont know but my stop will keep trailing down there.

and im in 98.00 sell usd/jpy looking for 95.xx area

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,648
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:05pm Mar 11, 2009 6:05pm
Any thoughts about the 1.3075 area?
I got lost in the analysis...
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #9,649
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:07pm Mar 11, 2009 6:07pm
Hi Sam,

im still hanging with that gbp/usd, for another challenge to the bottom.

But i know what you mean about 1.3845

warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,650
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:26pm Mar 11, 2009 6:26pm
Thexder,

1.307x area, hmmmmmm. You could play the bounce or wait for a pinbar off of it. either way its much better past page 14.

watch that 1.2888 area

warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,651
  • Mar 11, 2009 7:51pm Mar 11, 2009 7:51pm
Quoting Thexder
Any thoughts about the 1.3075 area?
I got lost in the analysis...


Threre should be more lines on that chart I need a clearer picture.

That level looks like the Mac Daddy of all Ressistance. If she gets there, eyes are glued.
  • #9,652
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:05pm Mar 11, 2009 8:05pm
Thanks for all the feedback. I know I should have fibbed the last major wave too but I was trying to see where it could move near term and I didn't want to over-do it.

I think I'll wait for 1.3277 unless there's some good daily price action in the shaded rectangle.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #9,653
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:22pm Mar 11, 2009 8:22pm
This is a recent example of a trade I didn't take because of the way price approached the top area of interest.
I previously mentioned it's better for me when I see a rush toward that area of interest for trading a bounce and the 45 degree gradual approach is something I avoid because that displays more of a satisfaction at that price level rather than an urgent disagreement and need to shoot back away after approaching suddenly.

On the 5 minute chart I saw how the approach to that upper red line was too gradual and sure enough it went higher after its initial touch, not lower.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #9,654
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:29pm Mar 11, 2009 8:29pm
Look at usd/jpy

First chart on the daily and the second chart right back in 1995 on the weekly.
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: sr53.gif Size: 30 KB
  • #9,655
  • Mar 11, 2009 10:25pm Mar 11, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting Thexder
This is a recent example of a trade I didn't take because of the way price approached the top area of interest.
I previously mentioned it's better for me when I see a rush toward that area of interest for trading a bounce and the 45 degree gradual approach is something I avoid because that displays more of a satisfaction at that price level rather than an urgent disagreement and need to shoot back away after approaching suddenly.

On the 5 minute chart I saw how the approach to that upper red line was too gradual and sure enough it went higher after...
This is very interesting to me because others have stated the same thing awhile back, but it's the opposite of what I've found. Looking back over my last 60 trades, of the 12 that I noted "strong price momentum approaching line", 10 blasted right through and never looked back. I'm still poring over the BRV posts, but he also mentions how he'll step aside if price is racing toward the line.
  • #9,656
  • Mar 11, 2009 10:37pm Mar 11, 2009 10:37pm
Quoting bigwal
Hi Sam,

im still hanging with that gbp/usd, for another challenge to the bottom.

But i know what you mean about 1.3845

warren
Looks like it made the run more to my actual resistance line and reversed again...were you able to close and get on another ride?

I'm watching to short it at 1.395-13985 as well.
  • #9,657
  • Mar 12, 2009 1:31am Mar 12, 2009 1:31am
Quoting Thexder
Any thoughts about the 1.3075 area?
I got lost in the analysis...
Hope you dont mind me saying, but I am glad I hadnt had a hard night on the town before seeing this chart. Talk about taking something simple and making it complicated.
  • #9,658
  • Mar 12, 2009 2:17am Mar 12, 2009 2:17am
  •  FxChi
  • | Joined Dec 2007 | Status: Cash Rules Everything Around Me | 749 Posts
This looks pretty nobrainer to me. Although not directly BRV style, more like Seiden.
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"Wishful thinking dies hard." Igor T.
  • #9,659
  • Edited 2:38am Mar 12, 2009 2:20am | Edited 2:38am
Quoting orcus
This is very interesting to me because others have stated the same thing awhile back, but it's the opposite of what I've found. Looking back over my last 60 trades, of the 12 that I noted "strong price momentum approaching line", 10 blasted right through and never looked back. I'm still poring over the BRV posts, but he also mentions how he'll step aside if price is racing toward the line.
It is not in the BRV pdf, but you can catch a fast moving pair at the candle close especially 4hr. It happens over and over again when price is breaking out of an existing trend due to extraordinary factors such as NFP or other major news. The amount of times that this happens before price retraces back to it's original trend is amazing.

N.B. Extremes of price apply here not usual levels.

NY and London 4hr closes are usually out of synch hence I watch the 1hr close an hour after my 4hr close (GMT). However this week and next London and NY 4hr closes are in synch so make the most of it!
  • #9,660
  • Mar 12, 2009 2:25am Mar 12, 2009 2:25am
Plan A worked last night and my nzlusd hit 131 where I was aiming. Did not take sell but am waiting for it to come down to 5070 for buy again.
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