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  • #9,621
  • Mar 10, 2009 6:50pm Mar 10, 2009 6:50pm
hi guys and girls,

You know, i have been trading for 2 years now, not posted much on here.

But between James16 group and no brainer trades, it has happened.

i have been going nut these past few days, the penny has dropped.

Everything we set ourselves to learn, takes time and lots of practice, but you get to a point when everything falls into place, its like a "ahhhh moment"

I remember not knowing how to place a order 2 years ago, going through all the lagging order set ups and auto trade robots.I have spent so much screen time , i think i earn a divorce !

The last few months i have come back to basics thanks to james and this thread.

For me i work on weekly/daily charts only. i want clear, smack you in the face signals to enter. Why settle for anything less.

When you understand what moves the market then you can place yourself in a prime position, even before it has happened.

To be really sure how price will react at a level before it has happened, this is what this thread is about.

Its not about market orders, its about "buy stops / sell stops"

Blimey i need to take a cold shower

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,622
  • Edited 7:05pm Mar 10, 2009 7:04pm | Edited 7:05pm
i think you guys with this thread really have something here.

Its with the daily and weekly that it really jumps out at ya.

more to follow real soon.

I dont want to hijack the thread but i think we have stumbled on something.

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,623
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:02am Mar 11, 2009 4:02am
Morning all,

This thread has been the awakening for me, along with Billy Ray's blog.

Have you been there?, there is buckets of good info.

I have a series of questions for you to ponder, i know the answers, but if you know the answers this will help you understand the markets.

1) What actually moves the markets ? without these the market would simply flatline.

2) what areas on your chart do you consider to be most important ?

3) where do thnk the big orders are placed ?


Some of you will know the answers to these questions and more, this is for the benefit of people who are trying to understand.

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,624
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:43am Mar 11, 2009 5:43am
Shorted @ 0.5053 .... anyone on this pair...?
STRENGHT IS LIFE ,WEAKNESS IS DEATH - SWAMI VIVEKANANDA
  • #9,625
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:44am Mar 11, 2009 5:44am
Quoting bigwal
i think you guys with this thread really have something here.

Its with the daily and weekly that it really jumps out at ya.

more to follow real soon.

I dont want to hijack the thread but i think we have stumbled on something.

Warren
Congratulations! I'm looking forward to see some of your trading-ideas, especially on daily-charts...
  • #9,626
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:05am Mar 11, 2009 6:05am
Quoting sivaji
Shorted @ 0.5053 .... anyone on this pair...?

Whats the reason for shorting here Sivaji?
  • #9,627
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:08am Mar 11, 2009 6:08am
I Am Also Short On This One,
  • #9,628
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:31am Mar 11, 2009 6:31am
im not in that trade myself, i can see why you guys have. Let me put my reasons i didnt below.

0.5053 is a area of s&r, and it has held, we have had some 100+ bounces off there.

I dont know what time frame your looking at, on the 1 hr it looks like sexy bounces off of 0.5053.

But, on the daily chart, that area looks like its being abused, it will break at some point. though You could be right and it has another fall.

There has been no reaction off the line this time round, which equals no sellers at this area.

Looking at Billy Rays information, it is quite simple, prehaps to simple.


This may help, lets say your front door at home is our s&r area, if you take a long run at it to kick it down you will more then likely bounce off. but if you continually kick the door by standing close to it, sooner or later the door (s&r) gives way.

Is price running at or knocking 0.5053

Regards

warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,629
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:42am Mar 11, 2009 6:42am
Almost looks like it wants to go higher. Guess it just depends where your orders are and how much you plan to go for. Definitely a short term point of contention though. On the weekly/monthly it looks like this pair just got halted in it's tracks by .5000 on the way down.
  • #9,630
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:52am Mar 11, 2009 6:52am
Quoting bigwal
im not in that trade myself, i can see why you guys have. Let me put my reasons i didnt below.

0.5053 is a area of s&r, and it has held, we have had some 100+ bounces off there.

I dont know what time frame your looking at, on the 1 hr it looks like sexy bounces off of 0.5053.

But, on the daily chart, that area looks like its being abused, it will break at some point. though You could be right and it has another fall.

There has been no reaction off the line this time round, which equals no sellers at this area.

Looking at Billy Rays...
Thanks for such a visually precise explanation of your thoughts for not touching this trade. If you look at the weekly it has been down there for a while that is for sure, and could well be looking to turn. I wouldnt mind betting it goes up to 5191 before selling off again as there is a lot of history there.
  • #9,631
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:53am Mar 11, 2009 6:53am
Quoting bigwal
im not in that trade myself, i can see why you guys have. Let me put my reasons i didnt below.

0.5053 is a area of s&r, and it has held, we have had some 100+ bounces off there.

I dont know what time frame your looking at, on the 1 hr it looks like sexy bounces off of 0.5053.

But, on the daily chart, that area looks like its being abused, it will break at some point. though You could be right and it has another fall.

There has been no reaction off the line this time round, which equals no sellers at this area.

Looking at Billy Rays...
thanks for ur comments.. actually the s/r is around 0.5053 to 0.5081 anyway i have closed my trade for small +pips coz the PA... and still looking for short around this area....
STRENGHT IS LIFE ,WEAKNESS IS DEATH - SWAMI VIVEKANANDA
  • #9,632
  • Edited 7:21am Mar 11, 2009 7:19am | Edited 7:21am
hi guys,

Here is a quick chart to show you what i look for, they stand out a mile

Also you can see where we are now present week, look how price is lingering.

Look at the first bounce high, now why did that happen? pull up the monthly!

Any questions or anybody want to add to this, chime in

Warren
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I need to finish something i started
  • #9,633
  • Mar 11, 2009 7:35am Mar 11, 2009 7:35am
Sivaji and Tori,

If i can help out then that great, i think you are both right with your recent views. That it could go up, so a sell order from 5191 area might be something to eyeball. if you did place a sell order there, where would be your first target area ?

This pair is sideways at the moment, but the great thing about billy rays approach is it still works in sideways markets to a very good %

I have trades that i get into, the price action after entry is all wrong, i call these trades " a dead fish", why, because the longer you hold them the more they stink.

warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,634
  • Mar 11, 2009 7:45am Mar 11, 2009 7:45am
Quoting bigwal
Sivaji and Tori,

If i can help out then that great, i think you are both right with your recent views. That it could go up, so a sell order from 5191 area might be something to eyeball. if you did place a sell order there, where would be your first target area ?

This pair is sideways at the moment, but the great thing about billy rays approach is it still works in sideways markets to a very good %

I have trades that i get into, the price action after entry is all wrong, i call these trades " a dead fish", why, because the longer you hold...
Agree with you... thanks for ur time and effort. Nice explaination !!!
STRENGHT IS LIFE ,WEAKNESS IS DEATH - SWAMI VIVEKANANDA
  • #9,635
  • Mar 11, 2009 7:49am Mar 11, 2009 7:49am
Quoting bigwal
Sivaji and Tori,

If i can help out then that great, i think you are both right with your recent views. That it could go up, so a sell order from 5191 area might be something to eyeball. if you did place a sell order there, where would be your first target area ?

This pair is sideways at the moment, but the great thing about billy rays approach is it still works in sideways markets to a very good %

I have trades that i get into, the price action after entry is all wrong, i call these trades " a dead fish", why, because the longer you hold...
I am now, as we speak looking at a target of 5131. take profit there because it may stall, if it continues I think 5191 is the stopper. But I would not take a sell there as I would be watching to see if it breaks this area to continue up. If it looks like falling again, I would be waiting till it came back down to 5131 area again. That is what I am watching for. If I am wrong in any of those steps then I consider the whole lot wrongly assumed and would not trade this currency. I will look for one I feel as strongly about. Great to lay it on the line. That is how we all learn.
  • #9,636
  • Mar 11, 2009 7:52am Mar 11, 2009 7:52am
Anyone thinking of taking a short AUD ride around 0.6527? Or 0.6558 perhaps if broken?
Omnia Vanitas
  • #9,637
  • Edited 8:24am Mar 11, 2009 8:07am | Edited 8:24am
Tori,

I like what you say 0.5191 on the daily sticks out for a target.

Agreed to stall on 0.5130 ish, that stands out on the 4 hr.

Indeed we have to try out our methods, the only way in the begining is with acres of screen time. If this trade doesnt work out as intended we can reflect on our reasons for entering. we may see something we missed, but on some occasions it is just not to be.

What time frame do you use?


ok, now scanning AUD as someone mentioned

Warren
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,638
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:33am Mar 11, 2009 8:33am
usd/jpy
gbp/jpy
nzd/usd

All above im watching , weekly.

Aud/nzd weekly, interesting ?
I need to finish something i started
  • #9,639
  • Mar 11, 2009 9:02am Mar 11, 2009 9:02am
this is my first post in here, what do you tihing about this entry. Buy EUR/USD at 1.2733
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  • #9,640
  • Mar 11, 2009 10:09am Mar 11, 2009 10:09am
Quoting lafedgar
this is my first post in here, what do you tihing about this entry. Buy EUR/USD at 1.2733
I took note of this level when reviewing the E/U to see where it may come back to after trying 1.282 but I would not personally take it. Looks pretty short term and while I would expect some bounce, it doesn't look like anything worthy.

I prefer bounces which have been demonstrated as S&R previously...this level was blown away after yesterdays run up to 1.28ish.

Nice to have the fib confluence though.

Price looks to be backing down now after another attempt at 1.282ish. You're going to take the long on 1.2733?
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