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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,081
  • Mar 11, 2009 12:55am Mar 11, 2009 12:55am
I give it a try again for this one...this pair found res @ 89SMA. Anticipated continues it path downside after a strong rhythm yesterday.

1 lot entry @ 1.1624
SL @ 1.1691 (68pips from entry @ fib 23.6%)
TP @ 1.1557 (67pips entry)
R:r=1:0.92

p/s-My trading perfomance is sucks this week. Wrong timing...most of the time. Busy like hell with work....

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,082
  • Mar 11, 2009 3:09am Mar 11, 2009 3:09am
The medium term cycles are not as clear as we prefer, but appear to call for the European currencies to trend lower during the next two weeks. Since GBP
fell to a new low for the past six weeks on Tuesday, this increases our confidence that
the negative outlook remains intact. In addition, the late weakness in the other
European currencies warn us not to get too excited about buying yet.

Our most likely outlook is that the European currencies will continue lower for another
two weeks. If this negative outlook is correct then they will decline into Thursday when a minor low is due and should fall to as low as EUR/USD – 1.2500 and GBP/USD – 1.3590. Provided these currencies see the weakness the cycles expect they will only recover weakly for a few days before the downtrend resumes. The most likely time for a medium term low is the week of March 23 and our targets are 1.2330 and 1.3300. It is only following this low the currencies should strengthen into the middle of April.

If the next two days lack much weakness, or if the currencies close above resistances at 1.2830 and 1.3950, the outlook will turn positive. Our initial targets will then become 1.3000 and 1.4100 areas and can be reached by early next week. If the currencies prove that strong then they are headed directly higher into the middle of April and ourfurther objectives will become the 1.3300 and 1.4300 areas. It is more likely that any aggressive strength in these currencies will be postponed for two weeks.
  • #19,083
  • Mar 11, 2009 7:18am Mar 11, 2009 7:18am
Quoting orangeRANGE
I give it a try again for this one...this pair found res @ 89SMA. Anticipated continues it path downside after a strong rhythm yesterday.

1 lot entry @ 1.1624
SL @ 1.1691 (68pips from entry @ fib 23.6%)
TP @ 1.1557 (67pips entry)
R:r=1:0.92

p/s-My trading perfomance is sucks this week. Wrong timing...most of the time. Busy like hell with work....

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Trailing stops @ my 1st entry for a free ride. Already bag 51pips with re-entry (2nd entry) @ 1.1640 with same SL with the 1st entry. Set TP @ 1.589 for 2nd entry today.

p/s-sorry I didn't have time to post my 2nd lot (2nd entry) entry today. Busy busy busy with work.... Now I am a happy trader.....

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,084
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:08am Mar 11, 2009 8:08am
Quoting monomonono
Thank ben Stevo I liked your explanation, like I sayd before Im just starting so any long explanation its very grateful.
It's a lengthy system to go through, compared to many others, but don't skip anything in the lessons. Many people have a tendency to read it and not do the setups/exercises..... bad idea.

Study, study, study and you'll make pips.
  • #19,085
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:15am Mar 11, 2009 8:15am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Trailing stops @ my 1st entry for a free ride. Already bag 51pips with re-entry (2nd entry) @ 1.1640 with same SL with the 1st entry. Set TP @ 1.589 for 2nd entry today.

p/s-sorry I didn't have time to post my 2nd lot (2nd entry) entry today. Busy busy busy with work.... Now I am a happy trader.....

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT

Excellent trade orange. One question. I don't see a MACD confirmation for a short. Am I missing something or was this trade not entirely according to the rules? I was going to take that trade but I didn't like the MACD.... now I'm regretting it after seeing your pips!

Just curious, are you trading live or demo?


Thanks
  • #19,086
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:28am Mar 11, 2009 8:28am
Good day everyone...

I see this pair is currently have its path like this. 200sma is somehow a strong res.

Please add you comments/ideas here.

Thank you.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,087
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:45am Mar 11, 2009 8:45am
Quoting ForexTrader
Excellent trade orange. One question. I don't see a MACD confirmation for a short. Am I missing something or was this trade not entirely according to the rules? I was going to take that trade but I didn't like the MACD.... now I'm regretting it after seeing your pips!

Just curious, are you trading live or demo?


Thanks
Hi ForexTrader...

Here are my answers:-

H4 CHART
I found long sting-tail doji (see red arrow) closed below 89sma. If Phillip Nel see this, he would say "somebody is selling from above". And to be honest with you, I always see the most important thing in a chart, that is price action (candlestick pattern) before I consider the MAs and other indicators. I don't really pay too much attention to the MACD behaviour at this trade. It will only make me feel "just wait and see"...duhhhh....I don't do that.

H1 CHART
I make my 1st entry @ aqua vertical line using this time frame...somewhere around the opening of the candle (which is the next opening candle @ h4 after the DOJI).

I made my 2nd entry after I feel good about this SHORT entry but I didn't have time to post it previously. Sorry about that...I bag 51pips in that 2nd lot.

I am trading live and real money...mate...

Hope this answer your questions...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,088
  • Mar 11, 2009 10:04am Mar 11, 2009 10:04am
Hi all...

I'm closing out my 1st trade @ 1.1570 for another 54pips.

Re-enter @ 1.1564 with the same SL with 1st trade (1.1624). Will leave this 3rd entry in open position.

Total pips gain for 1st and 2nd trade = 54+51 = 105pips...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,089
  • Mar 11, 2009 11:35am Mar 11, 2009 11:35am
Quoting LAO
It's definetely hard times for the 4 hour macd system. I don't have enough nerves to trade in such an aggressive way as orangeRANGE does.
But i sincerely believe in the upcoming EURO uptrend that will bring pips to us. my long is from 2530 targeting at least 1.3000(trade doesn't relate to this system!!!)
Lao,

you are completely right to wait for a the right signals, the big part about this system is knowing when to trade & to only take the high probability ones on - this is how the system works.

Orange: I hate to say this & please don't it the wrong way as I think a lot of people find your work very useful, however I do feel that you are confusing people here with your 1H entries. This is after all a 4H system which has been tried and tested over the past 2 years. Maybe we should look at starting another thread for 1H entries? What do you and others think?

What I do know is people trying to pick up the system are finding it hard to get to grips with things. The 1H entries should only be taken on when the 4H is not precise enough - This is the case in a really fast TRENDING market! The 1H shouldn't be used in consolidation periods like now!!

What are everyones thoughts these posts? Are they helping or confusing you? Please be honest as we are all here to help each other & teach the system to others.

Cheers WG
  • #19,090
  • Mar 11, 2009 1:21pm Mar 11, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Lao,

you are completely right to wait for a the right signals, the big part about this system is knowing when to trade & to only take the high probability ones on - this is how the system works.

Orange: I hate to say this & please don't it the wrong way as I think a lot of people find your work very useful, however I do feel that you are confusing people here with your 1H entries. This is after all a 4H system which has been tried and tested over the past 2 years. Maybe we should look at starting another thread for 1H entries? What do you and...

In my opinion, they both help and confuse. I'm confused when I try to see how the trade met the criteria of the 4hr system. I'm helped when I learn from his explanation. I think the one hour entries can stay, if the posters mentions it's a one hour entry. Otherwise, yes, it's very confusing.

Just my 2 cents.
  • #19,091
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:23pm Mar 11, 2009 4:23pm
A quick post from me before I have to go,

I am posting a trade I did on the USD/JPY, sorry i did not have time to post it earlier. This trade would be considered counter trend trade as the steam on the Usd/Jpy has slowed down quite a bit. As you can see on my chart, there is a head and shoulder formation forming on the 4H. Also there is a trend line that price has bounced off of a few times. The last time it tested it, my red flags went up as I knew the trend might be coming to an end for a few days at least or slowing down. And our rules state that when price closes outside of the 21ema, it tends to come back to it before going back to test the 89sma. So here price did close outside of the 21ema went back to it and for a while it seemed like it might continue on its upward momentum but there were few things in its way. One was the major price point of 100.00. Also on the Daily the 200sma was in its way that I anticipated that it might act as a resitance. And finally i saw the head and shoulders formation with lots of emotion around the last few candles. Also as you can see there is a nice divergence on the MACD making new lower highs and so I decided that this was a good high probability counter trend trade to the 89sma.

All my semi targets have been filled and my last target at teh 89sma got filled a few hours ago and so this trade worked out picture perfect as per the rules.

Now we must wait and see whether it will bounce off the 89 and keep going up or go all the way down for a new trend to the short side.

As you can see my decision to enter was no where based on the MACD but on many other factors before I would even consider looking at the MACD signal. Once all those factors lined up then looking at the MACD just confirms to me when to pull the trigger.

Total of about 270 pips banked on this trade. Again I would like to emphasize the importance of patience and taking the high probability trades. I do not take a lot of counter trend trades but when there are high probability ones, they are as good as the ones within the trend.
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,092
  • Mar 11, 2009 7:47pm Mar 11, 2009 7:47pm
Quoting time1300
A quick post from me before I have to go,

I am posting a trade I did on the USD/JPY, sorry i did not have time to post it earlier....
Very nice Aidin! Analysis, interpretation...everything. You hit the nail on the head with the patience factor. One single trade can be a whole months worth of pips. It's just a matter of waiting for the chart to line up for you....

I'm heading back home tomorrow but might have to be on travel again next week with a sporadic internet connection...not sure yet but it's looking that way. I'll know more over the weekend...
  • #19,093
  • Edited 9:39pm Mar 11, 2009 9:19pm | Edited 9:39pm
Quoting time1300
A quick post from me before I have to go,

I am posting a trade I did on the USD/JPY, sorry i did not have time to post it earlier....
Hello time1300,

Thanks for the post... but i just wondering if you could also help me to be more specific with the USD/JPY that brings you 270 pips, could you show me where your entry and your S/L is? I was live but didn't take the chance as I've seen too many TLs involved. Thanks a lot in advance...

PS: Sorry, I didn't notice your entry before I zoom in your chart, I suppose your entry is right after the signal red candle, where you put the down arrow...
  • #19,094
  • Mar 11, 2009 10:00pm Mar 11, 2009 10:00pm
Quoting hammerhead
Hello time1300,

Thanks for the post... but i just wondering if you could also help me to be more specific with the USD/JPY that brings you 270 pips, could you show me where your entry and your S/L is? I was live but didn't take the chance as I've seen too many TLs involved. Thanks a lot in advance...

PS: Sorry, I didn't notice your entry before I zoom in your chart, I suppose your entry is right after the signal red candle, where you put the down arrow...
Hello hammerhead,
Yes you are right, my entry was based where you see that arrow and my final target was the 89sma. I hope that helps
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,095
  • Mar 11, 2009 10:54pm Mar 11, 2009 10:54pm
hi, friends

It seems that I have a long time not to post at thread because of busy work. This session is a tough area where 4h thythm is not very clear. Please switch to daily chart, you will see clear pictures at know which strategy at this case we should use.

Daily chart
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4h chart
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1h chart
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #19,096
  • Mar 11, 2009 11:02pm Mar 11, 2009 11:02pm
Quoting welshguy2000
Lao,

you are completely right to wait for a the right signals, the big part about this system is knowing when to trade & to only take the high probability ones on - this is how the system works.

Orange: I hate to say this & please don't it the wrong way as I think a lot of people find your work very useful, however I do feel that you are confusing people here with your 1H entries. This is after all a 4H system which has been tried and tested over the past 2 years. Maybe we should look at starting another thread for 1H entries? What do you and...
WG : My h1 entries are based on h4. I am an aggressive trader and that's why I post my h1 entry here. Please don't look it in the wrong way because I never forget the original idea of the h1 entry itself is come from the h4 rhythm and rules.

ForexTrader : If you find my h1 entry is confusing you, stick with the h4 only. Afterall, all of us here have different personalities and trading strategies.

To the others : I will not posting here again if there is no need for my contribution or the senior members of this thread are not pleasent with my "aggressive" style.

So, I need a vote here.
  • #19,097
  • Edited 11:33pm Mar 11, 2009 11:13pm | Edited 11:33pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...

I'm closing out my 1st trade @ 1.1570 for another 54pips.

Re-enter @ 1.1564 with the same SL with 1st trade (1.1624). Will leave this 3rd entry in open position.

Total pips gain for 1st and 2nd trade = 54+51 = 105pips...
I just think that USDchf is now in a strong downtrend mode based on d1 and h4. So I will go for another free ride here...

Trailing stops @ 3rd entry (1.1564). Previous SL is 1.1624.

I will say no more about how I made my entry/strategy. PEOPLE might get confused. And maybe this will be my last post here...if things look so hard for them to digest...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,098
  • Mar 12, 2009 12:05am Mar 12, 2009 12:05am
Differnt session use differnt strategy. Evern for Phillip's strategy, we still have many sub-strategies, at strong bullish/bearish trend we can use 1h even 5min to enter. at consolidation we can do CT and 1h.

Any way, a long term view must be in our mind
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Plan your trades and trade your plans
  • #19,099
  • Mar 12, 2009 4:37am Mar 12, 2009 4:37am
Quoting orangeRANGE
WG : My h1 entries are based on h4. I am an aggressive trader and that's why I post my h1 entry here. Please don't look it in the wrong way because I never forget the original idea of the h1 entry itself is come from the h4 rhythm and rules.

ForexTrader : If you find my h1 entry is confusing you, stick with the h4 only. Afterall, all of us here have different personalities and trading strategies.

To the others : I will not posting here again if there is no need for my contribution or the senior members of this thread are not pleasent with my...
Hello all,

I'm new here, so please pardon me if i may make a wrong statement here. I may also not in the capacity to comment OrangeRange decision whether to or not to post here, as I myself still learning and still can't contribute anything to this thread. It's just that I feel that I have a sense of belonging to this thread. So once again, please pardon me if I may offense other's feeling in this thread.

According to my opinion, and this is again my opinion only, I feel that OrangeRange analysis is a bit aggressive than what I've learned from Master Phillip's teachings. Honestly, I myself doesn't fit to his trading style. I also feel that sometimes OrangeRange goes beyond bounderies by doing counter-trend in different pairs and different time frame. Phillip has stressed out many times that we shouldn't jumping around between pairs, instead focusing on the pairs that we are really familiar with. This becomes my attitude that I myself still try to develop. I used to have 6 major currencies pairs to trade and I was always looking for an opportunity. I couldn't let myself sitting without trading, and finally it all ended up with losses and losses, till Phillip told me not to trade that way.

Doing couter-trend is always risky, and Phillip has stressed out also that we should do countertrend ONLY when we're right on the edge of TLs and not just by MACD, also probably much better if we've made some pips before.

Getting an entry on H1 doesn't mean that we're on the wrong path nor aggressive. I myself like to get an entry on H1, but of course ALWAYS based on H4 as my roadmap. But getting an entry when there is no rhythm on H1, I would say it will become very very serious.

I, myself wouldn't dare of doing that. I also not jealous if OrangeRange made lots of pips by doing that. What most important to me is that I want to discipline myself with only taking high probability trades with currency that I really familiar with. If there is no opportunity for high prob trades, then simply i just don't trade.

OrangeRange however is contributing to the thread, I also feel helped when he posted his charts. Sometimes, I just couldn't notice the TLs till he posted his charts. I think OrangeRange has good eyes in drawing TLs.

So OrangeRange, please don't get upset. After all, we all here to help each other and make this thread better and better so that Phillips' goal of teaching people is accomplished. I think you should make an adjustment on posting your charts. There is nothing wrong with your trading style if you do it aggresively, but I also agree to Welshguy not to confuse others with your trading style.

So, if I allowed to make a suggestion then it would be much wiser if OrangeRange could still post his charts but truly based on Phillip's teachings.

After all, I'm new here so please forgive me if I may offense others' feeling...
  • #19,100
  • Edited 6:06am Mar 12, 2009 5:40am | Edited 6:06am
Quoting hammerhead
Hello all,

I'm new here, so please pardon me if i may make a wrong statement here. I may also not in the capacity to comment OrangeRange decision whether to or not to post here, as I myself still learning and still can't contribute anything to this thread. It's just that I feel that I have a sense of belonging to this thread. So once again, please pardon me if I may offense other's feeling in this thread.

According to my opinion, and this is again my opinion only, I feel that OrangeRange analysis is a bit aggressive than what I've learned from...
hammerhead...I am truly based on Phillip's teaching...
Let me tell you and the others about my h1 agrressive entry :-

1) I am trying to be creative...and looking out for a new formula...on how we can benefit from h1 entry strategies...in all market conditions (ranging/trending/ consolidating/extremely volatile). BUT, I ALWAYS REMINDED MYSELF AND ALL OF US HERE THAT THIS STRATEGIES MUST ALWAYS AGREE WITH 4 HOUR RHTYM AND RULES;

2) As my h1 entry is AGRRESSIVE, so I guess not all of us here have the same personality like myself. But, there could be a few also does not have the patience to wait for a clear trend in the market. That person could be an aggresive trader as well and he wanted to trade so bad. So, I am not the only one who is being aggressive with FX Market. That is one of my purpose of posting this kind of strategies. There will be many out there like myself;

3) I always reminded that my h1 aggressive entry is only suits for those who DARE TO FAIL, DARE TO LOOSE MONEY, DARE TO LEARN FROM THE LOST. Meanwhile, for those who have enough patience to wait for a clear trending market, you all can learn and see what are the advantages and disadvantages of this h1 aggressive entry. Does it suits you? If not, just ignore it;

4) This h1 aggressive entry strategies is however still under "TRIAL". Between that period, I LOST IN MY FIRST 3 TRIAL, and then I MANAGED TO COVER THAT LOST AND KEEP WINNING UNTIL NOW because I already ADAPT MY AGGRESSIVE STYLE WITH 4 HOUR RULES. And I wanted to share this with all of you but some of you seems "uncomfort" with my post;

5) As per WG comment, I will not looking for a new thread for h1 entry because all of these methods in here (including 5m entry) is came from Master Phillip himself. Since he is no longer in FF, it would be unfair for us to abandoned this thread and creating the h1 thread without his blessing; &

LASTLY...THE MOST IMPORTANT MATTER...

6) At the same time, as many of you (including myself) wanted to keep this thread's intergrity as it was in Page 1, I would then reconsider not to post anything regarding my H1 AGGRESSIVE ENTRY anymore. Many of you here would think my style is already went too far away from the basic rules taught by Phillip, but you are wrong...because everytime I break the rules...I lost. This should be a good example for all of us here learning from my mistakes by using this h1 aggressive entry without considering the 4 hour rules and rhythm...and that would be the case if you are looking at my style in the bright sight. Sadly enough, I think some of you did not see the benefit behind all of these matters. I NEVER ABANDONED THE 4 HOUR RHYTHM AND RULES. I AM LOOKING FOR IMPROVEMENT IN THIS GREAT THREAD. If that is wrong, and if my aggressive entry posts in this thread are technically too confusing, then I think I am done for now. I don't want Palmer, WG, time1300, or whoever is following this thread progress, stop posting here just because my h1 aggressive entry introduction. NO...I DON'T WANT THAT HAPPENED.

However, I'm still watching this thread silently and closely now. Maybe it is the best decision if I quit posting my entry strategy / market view in here. I just believe that my h1 aggressive entry still can benefit and suit my style.

Afterall, I don't want to own this thread...I'm just contributing my ideas...

Please let me know if you guys need my opinions...maybe sometime I can help...because we are always learning from each other. Many thanks to you guys...always.........

All the best...!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
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