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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #23,441
  • Mar 10, 2009 8:30pm Mar 10, 2009 8:30pm
Quote
The only way to do that is to find a broker witch offers more markets to trade. Available markets are not about the platform, Its about the broker.

av_fx,
in addition to what datogio has said, maybe u can state here w/c specific currency pair, index etc u are looking for, so people here can direct u to a particular broker offering your preferences. There are many brokers, for sure 1 or 2 of them can indulge u.
  • #23,442
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:58pm Mar 10, 2009 9:58pm
I always put SL and TP in a R:R ratio of 1:1. In this case SL and TP were 60 pips. When price reaches at least 50% of my TP then I am willing to close the position.

Otherwise R:R would become very nasty like 3:1, but 2:1 in some cases is acceptable.

Look at the the other trade I made today (usd/jpy 4hr). I closed it at about 50% of my original TP which was 60 pips. Eventually it went to apx 65-70% of my TP and reversed. That's why it's IMHO important to stay alert and not get too greedy.

Eventually the usd/cad trade could have made even more than my original TP target lol. But I guess that's what they call FOREX

Quoting Tjpld
In that case I would have set the Stoploss to break even.
If you keep going for only 30 Pips but Risk 100 this will not work out
in the long run.
  • #23,443
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:57pm Mar 10, 2009 10:57pm
Quoting Tjpld
In that case I would have set the Stoploss to break even.
If you keep going for only 30 Pips but Risk 100 this will not work out
in the long run.
Not necessarily true. Depends on your success ratio. Not a style I would be comfortable with, but it could work out.
  • #23,444
  • Mar 11, 2009 3:34am Mar 11, 2009 3:34am
I agree, your risk reward ratio has to account for probability, not just tick risk:tick reward.

Something most new traders don't understand.
  • #23,445
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:49am Mar 11, 2009 4:49am
Quoting enculée
I agree, your risk reward ratio has to account for probability, not just tick risk:tick reward.

Something most new traders don't understand.
That is not true. Risk/Reward is just this. You risk 100$ to get 50$ in a single trade, your risk/reward then sucks and is 2:1.

Now over the long term you might win 7 of 10 of that kind of trades with a risk/reward-ratio of 2:1, this means:

7 x 1 = 7
3 x 2 = 6

So you make 1 time the initial risk over 10 trades, means if it will be like that give you 0.1 time what you risk for each trade. So this involves probability, but for a single trade there's just the risk/reward, you can't take probability into that one or you're just cheating yourself.

Now let's say you win 8/10:


8 x 1 = 8
2 x 2 = 4

Gives you 4 times the inital risk, makes 0.4 for each of those 10 trades. But if you trade like this you really have to hope that you don't have a bad start and get 3 losers in a row, which is quite possible. Now you have to win 6 times in a row to just get to breakeven! Hell! ;-)

Hope this clears things up. Don't confuse risk/reward of a SINGLE trade and expectancy of your trades over a NUMBER of trades.
  • #23,446
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:51am Mar 11, 2009 4:51am
Anyone like the H4 pin on EJ ?
  • #23,447
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:11am Mar 11, 2009 5:11am
Quoting pipmyride
Anyone like the H4 pin on EJ ?
Is this what you are referring to? I wasn't sure, since you didn't post a chart . This is an inside bar. I"m not trading 4 hour yet.

I don't see a good reason to take it.

Josh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #23,448
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:11am Mar 11, 2009 5:11am
Quoting pipmyride
Anyone like the H4 pin on EJ ?
I don't.

Too small in relation to the bars around it.

I want to see what happens in 125.20-125.40 area

Looking for more certain opportunities. ...As always.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #23,449
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:25am Mar 11, 2009 5:25am
Dont mind it at 50% fib of previous rally and a decent SR zone ..

Add the bull outside line forming now ...
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  • #23,450
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:32am Mar 11, 2009 5:32am
EURUSD
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{Promotion Removed}
  • #23,451
  • Edited 6:02am Mar 11, 2009 5:42am | Edited 6:02am
I don't know how many of you guys remember daily set up for EUR/CHF it was pin bar. Then PA went down, almost to negate the pin bar. The pin wasn't very long, location maybe B trade (it was off some weekly S/R line) but lower down was more significant weekly S/R at 1.4600.Then this PA lack any follow up. Then BUOB.
I went in on the retracement and second lot on the breakout of the BUOB (total risk for this 2 lots is 1.5%). There is daily S/R to overcome (yellow doted line) to the nearest weekly S/R for T/P.
I've taken 100pips of profit on fthe irst lot, time to move S/L to BE and and .
I wonder what is the opinion of seniors.
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  • #23,452
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:50am Mar 11, 2009 5:50am
Quoting pipmyride
Dont mind it at 50% fib of previous rally and a decent SR zone ..

Add the bull outside line forming now ...
Nothing would persuade me to go long unless we see a break of the 126 level. I'll be more than willing to trigger shorts at this lovely price flip at 125 - 126.

Regards,
Ghous.
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I believe . . .
  • #23,453
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:52am Mar 11, 2009 5:52am
Quoting Marco
Now over the long term you might win 7 of 10 of that kind of trades with a risk/reward-ratio of 2:1, this means:
7 x 1 = 7
3 x 2 = 6
So you make 1 time the initial risk over 10 trades, means if it will be like that give you 0.1 time what you risk for each trade.
It depends how you calculate the size of your positions. If you use say 1% of the REMAINING (i.e. current) balance, and if those losses happen first, then 7 wins will not break even (let alone make profit).

Since distribution of wins and losses is random, you cannot take liniar calculations. This tools could help to visualise the scenarios: http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #23,454
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:58am Mar 11, 2009 5:58am
Quoting pakiestra
I don't know how many of you guys remember daily set up for EUR/CHF it was pin bar. Then PA went down, almost to negate the pin bar. Wasn't very long, location maybe B trade (it was off some weekly S/R line) but lowe down was more significant weekly S/R at 1.4600.
I went in on the breakout, there is daily S/R to overcome (yellow doted line) to the nearest weekly for T/P. 100pips of profit on first lot, time to move S/L to BE and and .
I wonder what is the opinion of seniors.
Attachment

The EUr/Chf BUOB was sitting just before a responsive ppz zone between 1.47 and 1.48 which made it extremely easy for me to pass it...

But anyways nice to see it work out, congrats on the profits

Regards,
Ghous.
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I believe . . .
  • #23,455
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:01am Mar 11, 2009 6:01am
Quoting pipmyride
Dont mind it at 50% fib of previous rally and a decent SR zone ..

Add the bull outside line forming now ...
Ghous uncovered the major plan. ...No going long until we get over that resistance. At least on that time frame. Which is looking 'tight'

Here's another reason... (Even if temporary. There will be better trades.)
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Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #23,456
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:11am Mar 11, 2009 6:11am
Quoting ghous
Nothing would persuade me to go long unless we see a break of the 126 level. I'll be more than willing to trigger shorts at this lovely price flip at 125 - 126.

Regards,
Ghous.
Yep - i see that, thx.

I guess i'm hoping that 3 strikes and youuuurrr outt !

Or i'll definately be ready to short ...
  • #23,457
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:15am Mar 11, 2009 6:15am
Quoting ghous
The EUr/Chf BUOB was sitting just before a responsive ppz zone between 1.47 and 1.48 which made it extremely easy for me to pass it...

But anyways nice to see it work out, congrats on the profits

Regards,
Ghous.
I was hesitating quite a while (as overall PA was confusing at the best) plus this PPZ above. I realise that sudden shift in sentiment will cause the price to melt down and hit BE point.
I know it's PA thread, so fundamentals are less important. I want to share some observation: recently any slight positive news are causing quite a good rally in stocks and bad news are leading only to some retracement. Like a bad NFP and a subsequent action on USD/JPY from last week which has seen only temporary slide and then PA went up closing with a "hanging man" pattern.
Maybe some experienced traders can put some light on it.
There is something fishy in PA in USD, Gold, Stocks as known correlations are breaking down recently.
I hope it's not off topic to much.
Thank you ghous for a kind words
  • #23,458
  • Mar 11, 2009 6:22am Mar 11, 2009 6:22am
Quoting Forex007
It depends how you calculate the size of your positions. If you use say 1% of the REMAINING (i.e. current) balance, and if those losses happen first, then 7 wins will not break even (let alone make profit).

Since distribution of wins and losses is random, you cannot take liniar calculations. This tools could help to visualise the scenarios: http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html
Sure, in the example I assumed using the same risk for each trade.
  • #23,459
  • Mar 11, 2009 8:54am Mar 11, 2009 8:54am
Quoting bundyraider
I want to see what happens in 125.20-125.40 area
LOL ...There's our answer ....Stuck like an ant in honey.

I'd say long eventually by the way it's trapped.
Bundy's status today: "Waiting..."
  • #23,460
  • Mar 11, 2009 9:14am Mar 11, 2009 9:14am
Hi traders!

Is anybody watching this pin bar on GU 4h?

Chart:

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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Jhon
"THE ALL is Mind; the Universe is Mental--held in the mind of THE ALL."
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