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We all need pivots to win..yes or not? 13 replies

The System (Irony included) 1,175 replies

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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #1,001
  • Mar 10, 2009 6:13am Mar 10, 2009 6:13am
Hi FEB,

I realize from this post that you are not that keen on the logical levels (00-50), or sweet spots as they are sometimes called, but I have noticed that @ times the S&R Levels can be found near the 00-50 levels. Now when this is seen (the S&R Levels nearby logical levels) would this not have some significance? There are times I have seen PRICE stall & reverse @ the logical levels, but I do see S&R Levels as being the way to go without the Logical Levels. S&R can stand alone & works well.

Do you see any value in the logical levels @ all. Your views on this would be most appreciated.
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  • #1,002
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:21am Mar 10, 2009 7:21am
Quoting acetrader
Hi FEB,

I realize from this post that you are not that keen on the logical levels (00-50), or sweet spots as they are sometimes called, but I have noticed that @ times the S&R Levels can be found near the 00-50 levels. Now when this is seen (the S&R Levels nearby logical levels) would this not have some significance? There are times I have seen PRICE stall & reverse @ the logical levels, but I do see S&R Levels as being the way to go without the Logical Levels. S&R can stand alone & works well.

Do you see any value in the logical...
When I got into be an independent floor trader, my "strategy" was very simple - to follow the leader. It was not use to compete against the Morgan's and the Merill's . No Way. But I had a big problem - I became too technical. I began to analyze too much. In the process, I was inconsistent in my trading.

It's unexcusable as I've been in both sides of the fence. So I decided to strip my head off this crap and simply trade as if I was still working with them.

Despite their current liquid situations, banks still comprises a huge chunk of the trading activities across the board. Futures, bonds, stocks, forex, etc. They're everywhere. I assure you, they're watching these levels like a hawk. If you could only see the huge volume formed on these levels, you will probably have a better idea. Of course, that's never going to happen. The interbank market will always keep this card hidding from the rest of us.

Sweetspots in my opinion have been a little bit worshiped among traders. I don't like to worship or double check or comfirm stuff, it takes me to second guessing on my trading. . Besides, I like my trading as simple as possible.

I don't see the interbank giving a lot of weigth on sweetspots, at least in forex . In my opinion will be nice to use certain number as a reference.

In my opinion, sweetspots do work very often in the stock market.


BUT


If you find out sweespots works for you consistenly, by all means, go for it.
Maybe down the road , sweetspots are the way to go, everything can change.


This is a definition of pivotal points (not to be confused with pivot points) from the great Jesse Livermore.

"in a market or a stock. Basically, they were: (1) Price levels at which the stock or market reversed course previously--in other words, previous major tops or bottoms"
Peace
  • #1,003
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:33am Mar 10, 2009 9:33am
Quoting feb2865
When I got into be an independent floor trader, my "strategy" was very simple - to follow the leader. It was not use to compete against the Morgan's and the Merill's . No Way. But I had a big problem - I became too technical. I began to analyze too much. In the process, I was inconsistent in my trading.

It's unexcusable as I've been in both sides of the fence. So I decided to strip my head off this crap and simply trade as if I was still working with them.

Despite their current liquid situations, banks still comprises a huge chunk of the...
Hi, Feb:

I think now it is a good time to buy Bank of America and Citi Corp's stocks for long term investment.

My humble opinion is these two banks have good intangible values (brand name and network).The crisis will end finally, isn't it? Anyway life has to go on.

I remember in 2002 Autumn, the stock prices of Sina and Netease (two Chinese website companies like Yahoo, listed in Nastaq) went down to 1 dollar. And in 2 years it increased to 30~40 dollars. Now Sina is 20.1 dollars per share and Netease 21.4 dollars.

Just my opinion, no suggestion.

*Edit: You know people tend to be over-reactive and herd-like, which lead to prices over-shooting, in both ways.
  • #1,004
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:53am Mar 10, 2009 9:53am
Hello Feb,

I am soooo glad to see that you are doing better on your way to full recovery. I am always lurking around this thread waiting for some fresh perspective from you. Did you sell that old clunker or are you still playing mechanic with it? I came pretty close to jumping on a plane to P.R with a friend who was visiting us but $$$ and circumstances held me back. One of these days I would love to eat some tostones and a cold one with you.

Here is a trade that I made today.

Thanks again for your generosity and mucha salud for u.

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Unus pro omnibus, omnes pro uno
  • #1,005
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:55am Mar 10, 2009 9:55am
Hi Feb,
based on your experice what is the wining percentage on high probability trade (break of h/h) number wise what are we looking at?
thx.
  • #1,006
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:17am Mar 10, 2009 10:17am
Quoting moneda
Hello Feb,

I am soooo glad to see that you are doing better on your way to full recovery. I am always lurking around this thread waiting for some fresh perspective from you. Did you sell that old clunker or are you still playing mechanic with it? I came pretty close to jumping on a plane to P.R with a friend who was visiting us but $$$ and circumstances held me back. One of these days I would love to eat some tostones and a cold one with you.

Here is a trade that I made today.

Thanks again for your generosity and mucha salud for u.

...
Hahahaha You're always welcome!

I think is going to go down slowly testing our level of patience.!! No I didn't trade today, Doc's appointment. But I had a good day yesterday so no biggie! Still scalping you know. Can't kick the habbit!!
Peace
  • #1,007
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:30am Mar 10, 2009 10:30am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, Feb:

I think now it is a good time to buy Bank of America and Citi Corp's stocks for long term investment.

My humble opinion is these two banks have good intangible values (brand name and network).The crisis will end finally, isn't it? Anyway life has to go on.

I remember in 2002 Autumn, the stock prices of Sina and Netease (two Chinese website companies like Yahoo, listed in Nastaq) went down to 1 dollar. And in 2 years it increased to 30~40 dollars. Now Sina is 20.1 dollars per share and Netease 21.4 dollars.

Just my opinion, no suggestion....

Buying Citi and BoA really comes down on two things: Capital and risk tolerance.

The whole world economy is slaved by the dollar. I mean, Nixon call out the rigth for the dollar to be a counterfeit currency in 1971 and the whole world accepted. So, there you have it. The situation must be resolved pronto or we will be back to living in caves and using torches. As to when, that's hard to predict, unfortunately.
Peace
  • #1,008
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:45am Mar 10, 2009 10:45am
Quoting fxachilies
Hi Feb,
based on your experice what is the wining percentage on high probability trade (break of h/h) number wise what are we looking at?
thx.
Honestly, I don't have statistics for that. But I'll give you my humble advice - don't dwell too much on statistics. Think about this: Whenever you trade, your profit must always be higher than your risk. I should say the least you should be willing to accept is 1:1, under very specific circuntances.

I test the market many times, meaning - during the course of a trading day I place many trades, trying to catch up a runner. If you see my P/L I lose probably 6 out of 10 trades, sometimes more. But when I get the runner, it usually offsets the loses.

Losing is part of my secret agenda. But keep my secret safe please, don't tell anyone. LOL.
Peace
  • #1,009
  • Mar 10, 2009 11:49am Mar 10, 2009 11:49am
Feb,
well said and apperciate your advise.
I have always been dulling on securing the profit let the target to be hit or play the runner game, thats the reason i look for satistics, if it is a favarable one then i can let my sl and tp be untouched and let the probability game play its roll out and go for 7 out of 10 end up winning.( i keep my risk 1:1, 30/30 rule)
i know you have already given me an answer but i'll apperciate alittle more input and word of wisdom from your well apperciated market experince, so i can be clear once for all and choose my style.
thx.
  • #1,010
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:26pm Mar 10, 2009 1:26pm
Hi feb,
I have the following question: are support or resistance levels we used yesterday still actual, when the price passed through all today's levels, should we take into considaration yesterday's levels?

Thanks.
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  • #1,011
  • Edited 1:37pm Mar 10, 2009 1:36pm | Edited 1:37pm
Quoting pwrlexus
Hi feb,
I have the following question: are support or resistance levels we used yesterday still actual, when the price passed through all today's levels, should we take into considaration yesterday's levels?

Thanks.
I like to use London's session levels and drag them onto NY session. Also I'm watchful with new levels formed during NY session. After NY session, I like to re-calculate, unless you trade on Asia session, you migth use the levels form the past session.
Peace
  • #1,012
  • Edited 1:54pm Mar 10, 2009 1:41pm | Edited 1:54pm
Quoting fxachilies
Feb,
well said and apperciate your advise.
I have always been dulling on securing the profit let the target to be hit or play the runner game, thats the reason i look for satistics, if it is a favarable one then i can let my sl and tp be untouched and let the probability game play its roll out and go for 7 out of 10 end up winning.( i keep my risk 1:1, 30/30 rule)
i know you have already given me an answer but i'll apperciate alittle more input and word of wisdom from your well apperciated market experince, so i can be clear once for all and choose...
I strongly suggest you re-evaulate that. In my humble opinion, you must have some sort of trade management in place to stack odds better. If you let the market call the shots for you then you're going to have dificulties on your bottom line. I am very aggresive with my stops. But for the idea of this thread, you must have some sort of balance - read post#974.
Peace
  • #1,013
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:13pm Mar 10, 2009 3:13pm
Quoting feb2865
I strongly suggest you re-evaulate that. In my humble opinion, you must have some sort of trade management in place to stack odds better. If you let the market call the shots for you then you're going to have dificulties on your bottom line. I am very aggresive with my stops. But for the idea of this thread, you must have some sort of balance - read post#974.
Feb,
i will do that. Thank you verymuch for all your help and advise.
  • #1,014
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:16pm Mar 10, 2009 3:16pm
+15 pips after breaking the resistance. Moved SL to BE after +10 pips. Took profit on the next level.
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  • #1,015
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:48pm Mar 10, 2009 4:48pm
Quoting pwrlexus
+15 pips after breaking the resistance. Moved SL to BE after +10 pips. Took profit on the next level.

There you go.
Peace
  • #1,016
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:58pm Mar 10, 2009 4:58pm
FEB,

I too was Dr visting today for a checkup & all is well as I hope it is with you.

I want to say thanks for your views on the sweepspots & I do respect your views on this & all matters of trading. You are correct that we need to keep trading simple & I don't try to clutter my charts or my mine with too many unneeded lines or indicators. I guess what peaked my interest in the sweetspots is there are times they just seem to be near S&R, but I do consider S&R more important for my trading style.

Yes, if we could only see that VOLUME @ those levels, what an eye opener it would be.

Over the yrs I've traded this is the best short term way of trading I have found & believe me I have tried many methods & systems. This is a definite get in, get it & get out approach on a short term basis.

After returning from the Dr the morning move up was over & the down run was about over, but I did enter short @ 1.2722 & tp @ 1.2642. No indicators & only S&R levels works for me & the chart allows you to actually see the PRICE ACTION along the way.

Tks again for your most respected view. Good trades.
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  • #1,017
  • Edited 6:31pm Mar 10, 2009 5:02pm | Edited 6:31pm
EDITED
Peace
  • #1,018
  • Mar 10, 2009 6:55pm Mar 10, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting feb2865
EDITED
Hi Feb,
I would be more than interested if you kept posting on this thread for us to see, i am only up to page 20 in thethread at the moment, but am getting thru it.
i wish to post a pdf that shows a chart of mine, if it is in someway irrelivent now i appologise.
cheers and good health to you.
geoff
Attached File(s)
File Type: pdf gbpJPY - 5 min.04032009.pdf   43 KB | 952 downloads
  • #1,019
  • Mar 11, 2009 1:51am Mar 11, 2009 1:51am
Hi Feb,
I hope your doing great, Thank you so much for all your help and generosity.
I have couple of a questions if you don't mind.
when we have a clear swing and a pullback (shallow) then its easy to see it and trade on break of H/H. but when pullback goes into price stall, forms couple of V shapes, looks like a chop then we set up levels (correct me if i am wrong).
My question is do you trade of off the break of either side or only towards the intial swing? If you do trade the opposite side what do you based on since we did not have a reall clear swing?
Thx.
  • #1,020
  • Mar 11, 2009 3:55am Mar 11, 2009 3:55am
Hi there,

I was very busy the last weeks and i didn`t have time to post more trades here.

Well, i took a long on GU a few minutes ago.

Here it is...

Best of pips 2 all.

Necre
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