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My thoughts

  • #21
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:12pm Mar 10, 2009 9:12pm
The Market is not random. It just acts in a formula that you and I cannot see. Embracing the fact that you do not KNOW the formula is a good step in the right direction as a small player in a big game.

The issue with other peoples cynacism on this forum is that they are not surrendering to anything, they are pushing a point. You so blissfully stated all cases, and i found your post very well written and easy to understand. You are clearly a very well educated guy.

Theory of randomness itself, is a definition of something that isn't random, because if you can theorise about something, then you know its there. Randomness is something that you don't know is there, or never will know.

To put it bluntly, the markets aren't random if you think you know they are.
Supply demand formula is a good basis for the markets. However only the big 4 can actually see the TRUE supply/demand numbers in the markets.

Things exist, you just can't see them. Thats why its always easier to act upon randomness as a small timer, rather than believing you are 'one' with the market.

You and I both, will never be in a position to witness the true formula of the market. Acting upon educated bets is the best we can come up with, and it all comes down to capital preservation.

Good day, and again.. very nice post.
  • #22
  • Mar 10, 2009 11:29pm Mar 10, 2009 11:29pm
In relation to market randomness,theres only one major factor contributing to the oversold/overbought condition & that is volume..if majority of trader believe that the price is so high for present situation..it will break the support rippin downwards until equilibrium reach and price range bound..& also vice versa..if anybody would ever realize,this phenomenon do occur few times a day(specific timeframe) when major market open & timing overlapse..& also,theres significant sign in terms of bar/candlestick shape/formation b4 this big move occur.
If anybody would really encompass on this behaviour,one will realize that no matter how much drawdawn u put..the pips really goes to that only one direction..it doesnt matter if u put down only 2% or 20-30% for that particular moment call breakout..
& do u think u can make money if while putting only 1% stake your open posn becomes minus? the answer is of course your account will be swallowed but slower rate,thats all.see,what i mean is whatever your drawdown doesnt really matter,what really matter is u really now the price headed to either up/down for another 15mins-1hr & how far it will go depending upon the bar/candlestick shape combine to volume & shape of current formation..
  • #23
  • Mar 11, 2009 12:07am Mar 11, 2009 12:07am
The opening paragraph of this thread is one of the best on FF in my opinion.

The best first step towards making money in Forex is giving up trying to predict where anything will go.

But as long as those forecasters are out there I'll keep making money.
  • #24
  • Feb 16, 2010 2:02am Feb 16, 2010 2:02am
This needs to be bumped. Topher's post is one of the few things I've printed out and read on a regular basis, even after all this time. It helps me keep things in perspective because I can let things get out of control if I don't have constant reminders.

This thread should be a sticky...Twee?
  • #25
  • Feb 16, 2010 2:59pm Feb 16, 2010 2:59pm
Great thread, unfortunately we don't see too many of these threads anymore.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #26
  • Feb 16, 2010 4:47pm Feb 16, 2010 4:47pm
Quoting aediaz1
Great thread, unfortunately we don't see too many of these threads anymore.
Sadly, true.

On the bright side, there are many quality older threads to 'bump'.

I did bemoan the quality of posting recently but it does give an opportunity to go back through the archive a little and find posts like this by members like topherhk88.

The drudge that's floating about with recent activity has forced me into FF history, so i guess i should be a little thankful.
  • #27
  • Feb 16, 2010 6:07pm Feb 16, 2010 6:07pm
Quoting Dopey
This thread should be a sticky...Twee?
Definitely!

CC: Tweeman
  • #28
  • Feb 17, 2010 4:26am Feb 17, 2010 4:26am
Quoting AstonDan
(..) so i guess i should be a little thankful.
Thats a very good point we should not forget. I wouldn't be this far in my learning-curve if it wasn't for FF and I bet there are some others too. FF contains loads of good trading experience and knowledge, it just require some research where to find it :=)

Great threads are seen less frequently but lets hope its only a cycle like everything else in this world runs in cycles.
Measure twice, cut once
  • #29
  • Mar 4, 2010 7:15pm Mar 4, 2010 7:15pm
Quoting topherhk88
Hi all,

This is my first post, and I don't foresee myself becoming a regular poster (although I wouldn't bet against it either). That said, I have learned a great deal from this place and the realizations that it has helped elucidate, that I felt it incumbent upon myself to share some of the some of my conceptual beliefs.

As with any good disclaimer, please note that these are only my views, and that many may find success or failure doing drastically different things. I am by no means making categorical statements, but merely expounding on...


I happen to search and stumble on this post and I am completely blown away not only with the Author's trading insight but also its perfect articulation of expressive skill. I feel helpless but exhilarated by the common mindset I happen to share with him.

I can only wish him abundance and peace in wherever he is and whatever he is doing.......

Kudos and shalom........
  • #30
  • Mar 4, 2010 11:07pm Mar 4, 2010 11:07pm
Wow,

Yesterday I made about 80 pips and the lost it all again.

The loss happens like this, I went long on GU thinking it would go some distance up at around the early hours of NY session. The reason being GU has been slowly going up for the last couple of days. But then it failed to go through the previous swing high in the hourly. I was slow to take loss, thinking it would swing up with some strength. At last, I took loss after being down for about 80 pips. I was so pissed off. Then today, I chanced upon this thread. And strangely this thread soothes me, calm me.

It is not what happen in the past but what lies ahead in the future that determines success for a forex trader. For whatever this statement of mine worths.

Thanks, I hope you come every now and then to share your thoughts.
  • #31
  • Mar 8, 2010 2:55pm Mar 8, 2010 2:55pm
Quoting topherhk88
I think that it is impossible to ever 'predict' the movements of the market.
I heard 1 trader said that
if you go against trend, the trend will continue and
if you go with trend, the trend will end.
LOL.

What about 2-5% of winners?
If they win, it means they predict movements...just my thoughts too
  • #32
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:18pm Mar 8, 2010 3:18pm
Quoting MarketPips
What about 2-5% of winners?
If they win, it means they predict movements...just my thoughts too
I don't think so.

It means that they've positioned themselves correctly within the current market structure.
  • #33
  • Mar 8, 2010 3:23pm Mar 8, 2010 3:23pm
The market is not random.
The market is simply a culmination of decisions made by people, and people do not make random decisions.
In reality, it is distinctively not random, it is deterministic. ie. cause and effect determine price.

The problem lies in a lack of information (specially for retail), which leads observers to assume randomness.

But of course, if you feel interpreting the market as random increases your bottom line, then by all means continue to do so.
  • #34
  • Mar 9, 2010 11:19pm Mar 9, 2010 11:19pm
If you are looking for a buy, imagine yourself in
long and short term of sell position. This will help also.
  • #35
  • Apr 10, 2010 9:25pm Apr 10, 2010 9:25pm
Quoting topherhk88
Thank you everyone for your comments! I wrote this some time ago in an attempt to condense the mentality of a successful trader, so I am certainly glad that it is resonating with some of you.

As mtcdavs mentioned, trading forums can be a mixed blessing. They are full of misleading information, propagated either mainly by those who are new to trading or those who have been trading for some time but have failed to consistently profit. This, of course, is only natural, considering that trading for such people...


The wise man heart guides his mouth and his words not only promote instruction but its also refreshes and enlightens like a bubbling brook.....Quote from the Book...

Looking ahead of the coming weeks for E/U Pairs, I will be buying(long) all dips for profit targetting 13590/13630 levels after which I will take profit and flip my trade for a short trade with ISL@13660 and profit target still to be determined later. (BTW, The m/t Trend Change Trigger level is currently @ 13690 which can also be used as a hard resistant level for all short trades. The Prevailing Trend is still bearish in this current retracement mode and/unless until this level is taken out and we can bid our farewell to 13500 handle. This scenario IMHO is unlikely on this turn but mabbe the next subsequent one) PA looks like its morphing into a horizontal rangey/consolidated mode in the coming weeks and next.

I am seeking neither acceptance nor approval of my above trade calls but just sharing my trading thoughts occasionally if I am up to it and which is not to be taken seriously unless you are trading like me.....


GL to all and may wisdom and understanding remains with you all always...........



The Only thing that is ahead of Godliness and Wisdom is HUMILITY......


Cheers
  • #36
  • Edited Apr 13, 2010 1:27am Apr 12, 2010 10:46pm | Edited Apr 13, 2010 1:27am
Quoting 99vt66
The wise man heart guides his mouth and his words not only promote instruction but its also refreshes and enlightens like a bubbling brook.....Quote from the Book...

Looking ahead of the coming weeks for E/U Pairs, I will be buying(long) all dips for profit targetting 13590/13630 levels after which I will take profit and flip my trade for a short trade with ISL@13660 and profit target still to be determined later. (BTW, The m/t Trend Change Trigger level is currently @ 13690 which can also be used as a hard resistant...


Well now that the E/U PA have breached the m/t T/C Trigger level @13690 by 2pips, the whole perspective of this pair have changed. There are 2 scenarios which will likely to happen,

1. That PA stays above the consolidated level @13550 and continue the new Trend upmove OR
2. That PA decides to consolidate by breaching the consolidated level@13550 and morph into a extended and highly volatile rangey market conditions before its final assault on the bullish ascension.

Current PA is in a PB mode and if and when the continuation level of 13605 is taken out in the next 2-8 hrs, we will be likely to see PA morph ing into a consolidated/rangey mode for the coming week. BTW all levels, mentioned are dynamical in line with time period momentum of 4 quarterly 24 hrs mode.

I dont know whether I will be accused of hijacking this thread but I just feel that it is a great pity if such a brilliant trading thread is to be ignored/discarded. However I will stop if the original writer say so.

Until such time I will continue to share my trading thoughts in this thread so long if its ok with the original writer and if I am up to it physically.

GL and cheers............
  • #37
  • Apr 13, 2010 1:06am Apr 13, 2010 1:06am
Quoting 99vt66

I dont know whether I will be accused of hijacking this thread but I just feel that it is a great pity if such a brilliant trading thread is to be ignored/discarded. However I will stop if the original writer say so.
I'm baffled by your cluelessness. The OP made a brilliant post about trading. You are putting up trading calls and then making the asinine statement above. You have nothing to contribute to this thread, you're just putting your own shit onto it. Why don't you start your own thread.

Really, I'm totally baffled by how stupid some people can be.
  • #38
  • Apr 13, 2010 4:49am Apr 13, 2010 4:49am
Quoting 99vt66
Well now that the E/U PA have breached the m/t T/C Trigger level @13690 by 2pips, the whole perspective of this pair have changed. There are 2 scenarios which will likely to happen,

1. That PA stays above the consolidated level @13550 and continue the new Trend upmove OR
2. That PA decides to consolidate by breaching the consolidated level@13550 and morph into a extended and highly volatile rangey market conditions before its final assault on the bullish ascension.

Current PA is in a PB mode and if and when the...


I wish to apologise to the original thread starter for the unintended blemish which I may have caused with my posts and I will not post here again.


Sorry and Cheers......
  • #39
  • Jul 11, 2010 7:16am Jul 11, 2010 7:16am
Quoting FXSurfer
I don't think so.

It means that they've positioned themselves correctly within the current market structure.
no, there is another definition - just lucky at mean time till changes... only if we talk about THOSE who got their fortunes and advert that. The rest of 20% traders who are profitable at different levels just do not talk to much about that - they doing their job silently, usually like usual work. Is similar to situation of working on yogurt factory - you do your work and live your life - get your salary, the rest is advertisement. Every day you wake up, look at your plan, trade according to rules... - few steps forward, one step back - is a way to survive and be consistently profitable (not meaning all stake betting once at time).

Never seen this thread before, but used that way of understanding as lifestyle, it MUST BE a GOLDEN UNDERSTANDING RULE.

Forum... depends on, for someone is fun, for other - socialization, may be a way to have conversation, some feel here themselves as teachers, some things they do charity, some feels learning here, many is for abusing others, etc etc etc - is a big place similar to usual life, need a lot of filtration.

Read first post of that thread again and again, print it - Golden words from topherhk88.
No crystal ball. I read the cards.
  • #40
  • Apr 28, 2012 8:34pm Apr 28, 2012 8:34pm
Quoting jebon2288
In relation to market randomness,theres only one major factor contributing to the oversold/overbought condition & that is volume..if majority of trader believe that the price is so high for present situation..it will break the support rippin downwards until equilibrium reach and price range bound..& also vice versa..if anybody would ever realize,this phenomenon do occur few times a day(specific timeframe) when major market open & timing overlapse..& also,theres significant sign in terms of bar/candlestick shape/formation b4 this big move...

Member Since Nov 2008 !
No wonder why you don't have any vouch yet.
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