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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,061
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:21pm Mar 10, 2009 1:21pm
Quoting ForexTrader
USDJPY was in great rhythm until it lost steam on news last week, now the 5 & 8 MA's are very close.

EURJPY seems to be in a funk since the 2/26 peak. Price has pulled well below the 5 & 8 a couple times, which has kept me out of it.

Is any pair in rhythm right now? If so, I don't see it.
ForexTrader...
5MA? Never see that mentioned in this method
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  • #19,062
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:29pm Mar 10, 2009 1:29pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
ForexTrader...
5MA? Never see that mentioned in this method
USD/CHF back to 21 again. Great. How to deal with the SL. The long tails are killing people.
  • #19,063
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:51pm Mar 10, 2009 1:51pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
ForexTrader...
5MA? Never see that mentioned in this method
I meant 8 & 21. I was thinking of another system that uses 5 & 8.

My bad.
  • #19,064
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:56pm Mar 10, 2009 1:56pm
Quoting fishmen
USD/CHF back to 21 again. Great. How to deal with the SL. The long tails are killing people.
hi fishmen...
use 3 stages entry if you LONG USDchf.

BUT....

Maybe you want to look at USDjpy. I am waiting for the right timing for this pair. Found long tail doji @ h4 with price currently developing 3 OUTSIDE UP pattern.

Will use h1 aggressive entry if 8 greater than 21 and all indicators are green.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,065
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:57pm Mar 10, 2009 1:57pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
hi fishmen...
use 3 stages entry if you LONG USDchf.

BUT....

Maybe you want to look at USDjpy. I am waiting for the right timing for this pair. Found long tail doji @ h4 with price currently developing 3 OUTSIDE UP pattern.

Will use h1 aggressive entry if 8 greater than 21 and all indicators are green.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
SORRY...this is my h1
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  • #19,066
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:00pm Mar 10, 2009 2:00pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
ForexTrader...
5MA? Never see that mentioned in this method
Hmmm.. I never really considered USDCHF in rhythm right now. It doesn't look much like the examples Philip posted or have been discussed on the thread. The price has gone above the 21 three times on my chart. In my opinion it doesn't look like good rhythm... but I've not had much experience with the method. Still papertrading unless I'm really comfortable with the rhythm. Right now, price is above the 8, 21, and 200. Are you taking on trades with this pair?

Tks.
  • #19,067
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:07pm Mar 10, 2009 2:07pm
Quoting ForexTrader
Hmmm.. I never really considered USDCHF in rhythm right now. It doesn't look much like the examples Philip posted or have been discussed on the thread. The price has gone above the 21 three times on my chart. In my opinion it doesn't look like good rhythm... but I've not had much experience with the method. Still papertrading unless I'm really comfortable with the rhythm. Right now, price is above the 8, 21, and 200. Are you taking on trades with this pair?

Tks.
It depends on different broker. It is not above 21 on my chart.
  • #19,068
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:08pm Mar 10, 2009 2:08pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
hi fishmen...
use 3 stages entry if you LONG USDchf.

BUT....

Maybe you want to look at USDjpy. I am waiting for the right timing for this pair. Found long tail doji @ h4 with price currently developing 3 OUTSIDE UP pattern.

Will use h1 aggressive entry if 8 greater than 21 and all indicators are green.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
I am actually looking to short USD/CHF.
  • #19,069
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:17pm Mar 10, 2009 2:17pm
Quoting fishmen
I am actually looking to short USD/CHF.
Are you looking for a BOZ with TP at the 8 & 21? I was considering shorting it also.
  • #19,070
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:17pm Mar 10, 2009 2:17pm
Hi all...

I give this one a try...(50) RISK:reward (50)...

MACD @ h4 bouncing off Zero Line. Using h1 aggressive entry after the 3 OUTSIDE UP pattern confirmed.

Hopefully can gain some pips when I wake up later today...

Wanna sleep now...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,071
  • Edited 2:54pm Mar 10, 2009 2:35pm | Edited 2:54pm
Quoting ForexTrader
Are you looking for a BOZ with TP at the 8 & 21? I was considering shorting it also.
yeah. but if price close above 21. then it is different. there is a divergence on MACD. the rule say when it close above 21, it tends to back to 21, then go to 89. But if the move is very strong, then it might go direct to 89. we are not counter trend, so if it come down, the TP will be previous low. I am not sure what it would be. Patience.
  • #19,072
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:38pm Mar 10, 2009 2:38pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...

I give this one a try...(50) RISK:reward (50)...

MACD @ h4 bouncing off Zero Line. Using h1 aggressive entry after the 3 OUTSIDE UP pattern confirmed.

Hopefully can gain some pips when I wake up later today...

Wanna sleep now...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Morning star on H4. Bu price above 99 is a bit unsustainable.
  • #19,073
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:59pm Mar 10, 2009 2:59pm
Quoting fishmen
yeah. but if price close above 21. then it is different. there is a divergence on MACD. the rule say when it close above 21, it tends to back to 21, then go to 89. But if the move is very strong, then it might go direct to 89. we are not counter trend, so if it come down, the TP will be previous low. I am not sure what it would be. Patience.
I like that divergence... I might take it on with small capital risk... once I get a MACD signal, of course.

Yes, it's a waiting game, which I'm trying to get better.

Tks.
  • #19,074
  • Mar 10, 2009 5:06pm Mar 10, 2009 5:06pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...

I give this one a try...(50) RISK:reward (50)...

MACD @ h4 bouncing off Zero Line. Using h1 aggressive entry after the 3 OUTSIDE UP pattern confirmed.

Hopefully can gain some pips when I wake up later today...

Wanna sleep now...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Seems like USD/JPY is making a head shoulder.
  • #19,075
  • Mar 10, 2009 5:48pm Mar 10, 2009 5:48pm
Good afternoon all,

I have been busy to post anything in the past few days and will probably pop in and out this week my week is just filled up. I just wanted to add my 2 cents on what is going on and as everyone can see, the price action is just all over the place in the past few days and with the uncertainty with the markets, it is having an effect on the price action or the currencies. The eur seemed to be on its way to the upside but there have been many big swings in the past few days taking people out of their positions. My bias is still to the upside with the Eur as well and price went above the 89sma and made a big dip below it again, probably taking a lot of people out and then closed above the 21ema so price here might be wanting to establish a trend back up to the 1.3000 price point.

the Usd/Jpy was very good to me and anyone that traded it in the last 2 weeks or so. This was a perfect example of what patience can do when you wait for these type of setups to arrive for you to take advantage of.

As for the GBP, I don't usually trade this pair but a great spike down and I some of you managed to bank a great amount of pips on this one.

I wanted to add that, sometimes it pays off to just sit and watch the markets when your gut just knows something is not right and there need to be more flow before you enter. I used to not be able to sit and wait and had to be in the market all the time but I have since realized the importance of watching from the sidelines until they rhythm is back and what you are looking for is presented to you on the charts.

One more thing before I go, I know most of us have our charts zoomed in so we can clearly see the MACD and the candles, but what I have noticed is that once in a while it does not hurt to zoom out and see the big picture as there might be rhythms or formations where you would not have been able to see clearly when you had the charts zoomed in.

Some mentioned the three sisters and the head and shoulders on the USD/JPY..........all very legit observations but you can only really see the formations clearly when you zoom out and observe from the clouds once in a while.

Thanks to everyone for keeping this thread alive and well and I am sure Mr. Phillip Nel is and should be very proud of such interest on this thread after this departure from this thread. I hope we can keep it going for Phillip and also to all newcomers to learn this great method that can be utilized in many trading environments and characters.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,076
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:34pm Mar 10, 2009 7:34pm
Quoting LAO
huh... i'm closed for 312 pips. i wish there were more such good trade oportunities.
THE QUESTION TO THE THREAD FOLLOWERS:
How many trades a month do you have?
in this period of time i can't find more than 4 trades a month(((
W

I've got a few minutes here...still on travel for work.

LAO:

The number of trades per month depends on the number of pairs you follow and the rhythm of those pairs. I pretty much just follow the EURUSD and the USDJPY. There are times when a few weeks can go by where the 4hr charts are just not setting up or are congested. When Phillip was still 'here' I think he jsut followed the EURUSD and the GBPUSD. His monthly review trades had about 10 or so trades for the month for those two pairs. There is a lot of patience involved becuase this is a longer timeframe vs. a 5 or 15min chart.

Patience does pay off though. But, if you have the time available and have a reliable shorter timeframe method, the 4hr can still be used as a guide for those lower timeframe trades. This takes a lot of 'study time' with the 4hr charts to be able to see what is going on and take advantage of that 4hr lull.

I had a brief window today and this is how I played the EURUSD as it was going up...I was looking for a short because of price hitting an upper trendline and the Gap that was occuring with the 8EMA and the low of that price bar...see the yellow bar in the lower indicator window. I used a lower timeframe entry to wait for a short entry signal on that timeframe that might be the entry that fills the Gap on the 4hr chart. This might be confusing the hell out of some people but check the website at http://www.fxtradeblog.com and click on the Plan 415 link. This explains the Gap indicator and some more info for trading the 4hr method.

NOTE: Don't skip ahead to the lower timeframes until you have a full understanding of the 4hr charts and how to read them = see the rhythm. That being said, even though the 4hr charts might only give up a handful of trades per month, being able to read the 4hr rhythm and having a lower timeframe method in your aresenal, the 4hr can serve as a map for those lower timeframe trades.

All that we 'ask' is to please keep the posts in this thread as close to the original 4hr method as possible to keep the integrity of this thread in tact. I'll drop some tidbits in here every once in a while, such as this one, but for the new faces showing up, it makes it a lot easier for them to learn the original method if the posts are kept to that theme....

Here's the chart from earlier where I got in. This fell like a rock and it worked out well...
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  • #19,077
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:53pm Mar 10, 2009 7:53pm
Hi I'm new at forex and this was my first trade with MACD 4H, I lost but please say me if it was my problem or its just bad luck, I entered it in the yellow circle. thanks.
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  • #19,078
  • Mar 10, 2009 8:28pm Mar 10, 2009 8:28pm
Hi Monomonono,

Can I ask you a couple of questions about your trade...maybe it will help give you some ideas.

-Have you got any trendlines or areas that you consider might be support or resistance? It always adds weight to your trade if you can identify a reason why price might be moving a certain way. The greater confluence of factors that confirm the trade, the more chance its going to have of working out.
-Have you identified where your target is and why? If so, this can help decide if the Risk:Reward is suitable.
-Have you zoomed out a bit to see whats happening with the bigger picture?

I think it always pays to be careful with CT trades after a sharp move or breakout (unless you have a confluence of tested / proven factors that say to take the trade), especially if you are just trading the MACD (very dangerous to just trade macd signals). For me, a confluence of factors might be support / resistance area, maybe divergence, and Price action (PA) confirming. I also really like it when the daily charts are hinting something also.

Back to your trade, initially its going to be safer for you if there is a reasonable R:R to the 8EMA as first target. This was hit with your trade, but unfortunately your SL was a bit tight (R:R was not that great either).

I would say that right now (11 March) there are a few more things suggesting a CT trade may now work out better, just based on confluence of factors again:
1)H4 now divergent, so momentum is decreasing.
2)Daily chart shows doji (indecision, or maybe just a quick rest?) yesterday
3)Price is at a potential support level for me at moment @ 1.3700
Having said this, PA has still to confirm for me, so I’m still waiting. If I do get a long setup, target for me is slightly bigger (maybe 21ema on daily as initial target) as daily would be in some agreement with H4.

Sorry this is a bit long. This is just the way I’m learning to trade better and it has definitely improved my results big time. Hope it helps you somehow.


Quoting monomonono
Hi I'm new at forex and this was my first trade with MACD 4H, I lost but please say me if it was my problem or its just bad luck, I entered it in the yellow circle. thanks.
  • #19,079
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:05pm Mar 10, 2009 9:05pm
Thank ben Stevo I liked your explanation, like I sayd before Im just starting so any long explanation its very grateful.
  • #19,080
  • Mar 11, 2009 12:22am Mar 11, 2009 12:22am
Get stopped out on USDjpy last night.

Market has not been so "friendly" lately. One of unlucky time with this pair.
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