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  • #221
  • Edited 3:38pm Mar 10, 2009 3:28pm | Edited 3:38pm
Hi Strat,

Long time lurker, first time poster.

I'm a relative newbie having started trading in November last year. Recently i've spent some time in a live room and found it not to my personal taste with indicators up the 'wazoo' and short timeframes (please don't read this as a critisism of that method - quite the opposite, just not for me).

I've read James Price Action thread, Jacko's House of Pleasure and Pain and Peter's thread for newbies, which are all highly recommended for anyone who hasn't read them.

Followed you here from Forex TSD and am looking forward to your thread developing. I am loving longer timeframes (Daily)and am encountering a win/loss ratio of about 10/2 with less stress and more confidence, simply by following the longer term trend! Simple eh?

Am currently in Cable with a target of 1.3500 where i don't know what to expect next. Will it bounce back to 1.5000 (last major weekly resitance), or sink to new lows?

Maybe i'll just wait and see what Nicola does, always a winner!

Keep it up,
Dan
  • #222
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:53pm Mar 10, 2009 3:53pm
Hello Dan,
I'm short cable and GJ. I'm long USDCAD.
Not sure if they are ready to go yet but I do think they are going to go.
I'm learning though so we will see!
Nicola

Quoting AstonDan
Hi Strat,

Long time lurker, first time poster.

I'm a relative newbie having started trading in November last year. Recently i've spent some time in a live room and found it not to my personal taste with indicators up the 'wazoo' and short timeframes (please don't read this as a critisism of that method - quite the opposite, just not for me).

I've read James Price Action thread, Jacko's House of Pleasure and Pain and Peter's thread for newbies, which are all highly recommended for anyone who hasn't read them.

Followed you here from Forex...
  • #223
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:03pm Mar 10, 2009 4:03pm
Quoting elitejets
Hello Dan,
I'm short cable and GJ. I'm long USDCAD.
Not sure if they are ready to go yet but I do think they are going to go.
I'm learning though so we will see!
Nicola
Hi Nicola,
Looking at my analysis (amatuer though it is), I'm showing major support at 130 'ish'. I may look at placing an sell stop for 135 with stop at the top of today's candle, with a target of 130.

Are you still getting up/staying up for the London open?

Dan
  • #224
  • Edited 5:14pm Mar 10, 2009 5:02pm | Edited 5:14pm
Quoting elitejets
Hello Dan,
I'm short cable and GJ. I'm long USDCAD.
Not sure if they are ready to go yet but I do think they are going to go.
I'm learning though so we will see!
Nicola
Snap. Well except for USDCAD. I've a tight enough stop on though as I've let too many trades run against me recently. A sure sign of an amateur.

So is USDCHF a long setup? Pin Bar into confluence. I've an order on the break of Tuesday's high.

I've a feeling this strategy is going to have me trading with my beer goggles on a lot!

Cheers. A few beers deep after the Chelsea game.

Bloom
  • #225
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:01pm Mar 10, 2009 7:01pm
[quote=Baba G;2591690]
Quoting strat
I am very pleased that people are learning and making profits from this thread. That was my reason for starting it - to give back. Interestingly, and I never thought about it, it is making me remember so many things I had forgotten or taken for granted.

Now a personal request - please do not post how many pips you made on this thread. If you feel the need to brag (which is what I call it when I see posts with pips on), feel free to PM me.

The reason I don't like it is because I think it has more negative connotations than...
Our trading likeness and similarities are uncanny - I don't look at how many pips I make on a trade - I just like seeing it go to free and then I don't really care after that. I maybe just check the accounts once a month also but only to make sure the brokers are not screwing me.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #226
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:25pm Mar 10, 2009 7:25pm
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Strat,...
Thanks for the questions but unfortunately the answers are not so straightforward and require lots of study and years and years of practice. To answer these now would be putting the cart before the horse and would probably confuse you more than they would help you.

Have you read J16 yet on basic price action? Do you understand it? Have you looked at thousands of charts and applied what you know to them? Have you the confidence to read price action WITHOUT looking at indicators. Do you know and understand the fundamentals of what moves price? Do you understand Newton's Laws of Motion? Do you understand how the markets are traded?

There is no magic method or short cut to learning price action - you have to study and learn the basics (J16) and then apply it to thousands of charts until you are reading price action like you are reading a book.

See earlier posts for answers on Cycles and Momentum.

Sorry if this answer is vague but you have to learn how to drive a Toyota before you move up to a Ferrari.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #227
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:28pm Mar 10, 2009 7:28pm
Quoting Pirabuji
I will test it for you
And how would you do that? What parameters would you test it against? How would you know when you have a result? What would you do with the result?
What positive feedback could you provide?

Thank you but no thank you.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #228
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:37pm Mar 10, 2009 7:37pm
Quoting Bloom
Strat,

I understand some of the S/R on the USDJPY, but not all of them. How do you decide what is S/R?

Cheers

Bloom
Thanks for the question, Bloom. Ask and ye shall receive.

Before I answer, have you read about PPZ on J16? If you do that you will find the answer to your questions.

Sorry it's not the answer you were looking for but I said I would not spoon feed on here, you have to do some work on your own. Now if you have studied that and still have a dim light bulb, ask again.

If you have studied J16 PPZ, you will see that we (I) start to think differently with regard to support and resistance. When you recognise it let me know.

Don't let my response put you (or anyone) off asking questions - we are all here to learn (me included). You would be surprised how much I learn (or remember) from the questions asked.

PS don't be in a hurry to trade or learn, the markets will still be here long after you are being eaten by the worms!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #229
  • Edited Mar 11, 2009 2:33am Mar 10, 2009 9:07pm | Edited Mar 11, 2009 2:33am
Quoting reddog19
So when you are drawing S/R lines and trend lines you only use the CLOSE?

Also for Fibs?

What about setting your S/L? Do you set it above/below the CLOSE of a recent swing high/low?

Does it affect how you see price action?

Thanks Strat
Thanks for the questions.

I may have over simplified things with my comments about the close. The close, in my opinion, is the most important level on a candle. I do not use tails or wicks for trend lines or any of my analysis. So, on a down trend line, I draw the line through the open but again, that is over simplifying it.

Trend lines are NOT an exact science and there is no right way or wrong way to draw one. The trend lines that I draw work for me because it is part of my overall analysis. If you are just drawing trend lines in isolation, they may not be giving you the information you want.

In certain cases when there is lots of volatility, I will draw an "average" trend line just by eye balling the bars and drawing the line that has the most touches to it.

Although the close is the most important, the other 3 levels also have their use in telling us what went on in that 24 hour bar.

Fibs, like trend lines are very subjective with regard to where you take the swing from and whether to use the tails and wicks or not depends on the volatility of the pair being measured.

What you have to remember is that trend lines, fibs, support and resistance are not exact. That is why you will see us say 1.3650ish. There is no rule that says price has to be "spot on" with any of these - just pretty close will do the trick.

With regard to the points from where to draw your fibs, the general rule is from swing to swing. When that swing has produced it's retrace, rally or whatever the move, then move on to the next swing. Don't worry about getting the exact points right because what you will find is that if you draw your fib and it shows the retrace at 50%, then move your points and you will see that it is now at 38.2% or 61.8% - a level where you should be taking notice anyway.

Finally, as more and more traders are using fibs, they are becoming more and more self fulfilling.

Did you really ask this question "What about setting your S/L? Do you set it above/below the CLOSE of a recent swing high/low?"

If I am long, and identify a swing low to place my SL, why would I want to place it near the close? Think about it. On that bar that produced the swing low, what did the sellers do? Where did they take price? I want to place my SL away from the noise and action of that important turning point. Also, if that swing low bounced off support, I will put my SL below and away from the noise around that support. Does that answer your question? If not, ask again.

"Does it affect how you see price action?"

This is a "how long is a piece of string" question. Everything you see on the charts affects price action - not just pieces of it in isolation, but all of it lumped together. I'm not sure that is the answer you are looking for so if it isn't, please re-phrase the question.

Hope this helps.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #230
  • Edited Mar 11, 2009 1:51am Mar 10, 2009 10:13pm | Edited Mar 11, 2009 1:51am
Quoting AstonDan
Hi Strat,

Long time lurker, first time poster.

I'm a relative newbie having started trading in November last year. Recently i've spent some time in a live room and found it not to my personal taste with indicators up the 'wazoo' and short timeframes (please don't read this as a critisism of that method - quite the opposite, just not for me).

I've read James Price Action thread, Jacko's House of Pleasure and Pain and Peter's thread for newbies, which are all highly recommended for anyone who hasn't read them.

Followed you here from Forex TSD...
AstonDan,

Poster's handles intrigue me so I'm guessing that you are an AstonDan hoping to move up to an AstonMartin? Me too - watch out Bond - we are on our way!

Only 5 months in Forex and you are already well on your way, Dan, congratulations. The one most important thing that you have done is recognise what does NOT work for you and are now trying to find that style and time frame which DOES work for you. I see so many wannabe traders plugging away losing hundreds of pips doing something in a time frame that OBVIOUSLY doesn't work for them yet they persist in throwing their money away. I did it and it took me longer than 5 months to change.

It breaks my heart when I see people losing money as fast as it can be printed. There was one guy in a chat/live trading room with a young wife and family who was not only losing hundreds of pips but posting and telling everyone about it. Everyone but him could see that it wasn't working for him yet he blindly turned up day after day to throw his money away.

I was near to tears thinking of his situation and I couldn't take it anymore so I sent him a PM PLEADING with him to STOP everything. Finally, after a couple of PMs, he saw the light and stopped, much to my relief.

If this guy is up to it, I would like him to come on here and describe his emotions, what was going through his mind, what kept him doing something that everyone knew didn't work for him, why he did this etc. This will be so important for others in, and those who will be, in this position. If he doesn't want to do it under his own handle, he can send it to me and I will post it anonymously.

Although I don't understand it, it is something I did and had to work my way through it (over $200K lost later). This is the psychology aspect of trading controlling us. It is said that trading is 10% method and 90% psychology. Controlling your psychology aspect (or the man in the mirror in my case) is critical to your success as a trader. Although I thought I had mine tamed, it came back and let me know it was still there in my "quickie" USDJPY trade.

When something is not working for us after we have given it a good try, we need to stop and ask "WHY?" How many of us have traded with something that does not work and asked "WHY ISN'T IT WORKING?" We just keep plugging away and HOPE that our "LUCK" will change. Hope and luck are not included in the recipe for trading success.

I like to use a car analogy to describe this. When you start your car in a morning it usually starts on the first crank. What do you do when the day comes and it doesn't start on the first crank? You give it another crank and it still doesn't start. Since it has always started on the first crank, you should now be thinking "something is wrong with the engine". Well we give it a third crank and it still doesn't start and now it becomes a battle and you keep cranking away until you have a dead (flat) battery. So now you have two problems - the engine AND battery. This is exactly the trading scenario. Cranking away is each losing trade and the flat battery is an empty and lost account!

Now to your trades. First, nobody knows where a pair will go. There are lots of people who THINK they know but the market will do what IT wants to do regardless of what we THINK. Even trading the Daily you have to be on your toes and keep an OPEN MIND.

I think 1.3500 is ambitious, AT THIS TIME for GBUSD (but I'm no expert). Before it gets there it has to go through major support at 1.3650 and again at 1.3550. Yesterday's bar was rejected/bounced off by the 1.3650 - what is this telling us? Are there any sellers at 1.3650? What happens at support and resistance?

"Will it bounce back to 1.5000?"
Bloody hell, Dan, that is one hell of a bounce! I hope I never get caught in one of your bounces! Before it gets to 1.5000, there are several layers of resistance holding it down.

Then I get to your last sentence and I take back everything good I said about you!

"Maybe i'll just wait and see what Nicola does, always a winner!"

Dan, you will never, EVER, get your Aston Martin thinking like this! First of all Nicola (elitejets) is NOT ALWAYS a winner - NONE OF US ARE!

Have you asked her if she can be your signal service? If you do, I hope she says NO!

If you are on here, then you should be here to learn and understand and trade for yourself. Trading on someone else's beliefs is the ROAD TO RUIN!

If you are not sufficiently confident in placing trades based on your own analysis then DO NOT TRADE! Take your time and learn what you need to become a successful trader. The market will still be here when you are good and ready.

Think again about your chat/live trading room experience. Did it work for you then taking other people's trades?

I've fallen off my soap box again!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #231
  • Edited Mar 11, 2009 1:40am Mar 10, 2009 10:21pm | Edited Mar 11, 2009 1:40am
Quoting Bloom
Snap. Well except for USDCAD. I've a tight enough stop on though as I've let too many trades run against me recently. A sure sign of an amateur.

So is USDCHF a long setup? Pin Bar into confluence. I've an order on the break of Tuesday's high.

I've a feeling this strategy is going to have me trading with my beer goggles on a lot!

Cheers. A few beers deep after the Chelsea game.

Bloom
Bloom,

Thanks for coming out of your shell and asking questions.

A Chelsea supporter - so you're the one eh?

You might want to think of trading multiple lots so that you can take profit on one at say 50 pips, bring the others to break even, take profits again at 100 pips bring to break even and then trail the rest.

"So is USDCHF a long setup? Pin Bar into confluence. I've an order on the break of Tuesday's high."

Bloom everything is wrong and nothing is right with what you said. Why have you chosen to trade USDCHF? What is your reward to risk potential? What is price action telling you? What is the immediate trend?
Let's analyse where we are:
The BOSS has been in consolidation for 7 weeks - yes it has to break out at some point but do you really want to jump in and GUESS which way?
Hence the Daily is obviously in consolidation and yes you can trade the ranges but that is basically scalping the Daily which I'm not interested in. Too much stress for too little reward for me. Look at your 20 and 50 and where price is at - well and truly sandwiched between the two of them AND they are both horizontal telling you what you should already know - there is NO direction. In addition to being boxed in between the 20 and 50, price is also boxed in between several layers of support and resistance which is typical of a consolidation. The only thing going for it is that the BOSS trend is up and, SO FAR, the BOSS 20 is supporting prices.
Now look at what happened from Friday onwards. It threw out a hammer which bounced off the BOSS 20 telling us that the sellers are not down there. Then on Monday, it threw out an exactly opposite bar telling us there were no buyers up there either and to forget what it told us on Friday. Yesterday's bar went looking for sellers, couldn't find any and then found a few buyers but only up to major resistance at 1.1650. There were buyers at 1.1820ish but lately they have gone in hiding. Yes you can trade support to resistance from 1.1500 to 1.1900 which is 400 Gladys Knights but at what risk?

Also, always watch EURUSD when trading USDCHF as they trade opposite to each other. As with USDCHF, EURUSD is directionless and waiting for something to trigger a move. It looks like a big move will evolve out of these two once they get going.

Don't be in such a hurry to trade - let the market show it's hand and then jump on it's back. You do not have to get in at tops and bottoms on the Daily time frame.

Also in J16 terms, I don't see a pin bar on my data.

Also, I don't use the term "Pin Bar". That was coined by Martin Pring who likened it to Pinnochio's nose getting longer as he lied. I do not see the need for that description if you truly understand candles plus it is far too generic for me.

The price reversal bars I recognise are Shooting Stars at the top of a trend and Hammers at the bottom of the trend and they have to be at support/resistance with supporting volume. A Hanging Man is also a good reversal bar if all the other conditions are met.

I don't understand your beer goggles sentence. Are you saying you are trading while under the influence of alcohol? That is just as bad as driving under the influence. We need all our wits about us when we trade which cannot be said if our brain is numbed with alcohol.

Thanks again for the questions and don't be put off by my response - I'm only trying to help.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #232
  • Mar 11, 2009 2:08am Mar 11, 2009 2:08am
Quote
I don't understand your beer goggles sentence. Are you saying you are trading while under the influence of alcohol? That is just as bad as driving under the influence. We need all our wits about us when we trade which cannot be said if our brain is numbed with alcohol.
Just having a laugh. This method of trading will have me looking at the close of the daily candle, which is at about 10pm my time. I'm partial to the odd beer when watching the football so the two are bound to collide.

My question on USDCHF was more to see if I'm recognising the pattern, as I've never really paid much attention to PA. This style of trading is going to be learnt in layers.

Another thing, which will probably come down to personal opinion, but what time is the most accurate for a daily candle to close? I'd reckon after US close, before Asia open.

Does anyone know how (if) you can change the timezone in MetaTrader?
  • #233
  • Mar 11, 2009 2:20am Mar 11, 2009 2:20am
Tuesday produced a very interesting price bar - see attached chart.

Can you see intervention by the Market Makers? They drove price up through major resistance at 1.2700 to stop at minor resistance at 1.2830ish. This took out all the stops above the three previous price bars including all those resting above the swing high on March 6th and all those above the psycho 1.2700 number which was also major resistance!

How do we know it was intervention? We don't know 100% but it sure looks like it because they returned price back to almost where it started creating a neutral doji. They have to bring it back to where it started otherwise, if they had left it up at 1.2820, it would have produced a very bullish outlook which they obviously don't want to create.

Interestingly, that move created a lot of interest from buyers and sellers as can be seen by the volume with the sellers in control at the close. Since we have a couple of cycles topping, a sell stop below this bar would get us 100 Gladys Knights down to major support at 1.2500ish.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd.gif Size: 23 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #234
  • Mar 11, 2009 2:29am Mar 11, 2009 2:29am
Nicola,

I've just noticed your new description "Darksider Wannabe" - very strange - is there something you want to share with us?

Also what happened to your old avatar? I used to enjoy looking at your brains!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #235
  • Mar 11, 2009 2:56am Mar 11, 2009 2:56am
Quoting Bloom
Just having a laugh. This method of trading will have me looking at the close of the daily candle, which is at about 10pm my time. I'm partial to the odd beer when watching the football so the two are bound to collide.

My question on USDCHF was more to see if I'm recognising the pattern, as I've never really paid much attention to PA. This style of trading is going to be learnt in layers.

Another thing, which will probably come down to personal opinion, but what time is the most accurate for a daily candle to close? I'd reckon after US close,...
Good Bloom, I like a good laugh!

I thought you were in the UK? Doesn't your candle close at midnight GMT?
Well, you're on your way with the learning just by recognising that it has to be learned in layers. That's a very good observation. You have to crawl before you walk before you run etc.

Your candle close and the time a new candle prints is all governed by your broker and no, it can't be changed. If you are not sure when your new candle prints, just ask your broker.

My data feed is midnight NY time which means my new candle prints at 9pm my time (California is 3 hours behind EST).

I consider my candle closed after NY closes at 5pm their time (2pm my time). In recent months though, it hasn't really closed as Sydney, Tokyo and Hong Kong have become more active and not just on their pairs - they have been messing with EURUSD and GBPUSD.

Hope this helps.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #236
  • Mar 11, 2009 3:44am Mar 11, 2009 3:44am
The expected profit taking in early trading has started at around 0.9225ish. We need to watch closely as this progresses to see if it is just profit taking or a return to the short trend on the Daily. Since we only have data from December last year at these price levels, we don't have much history support and resistance wise but still enough to work with.

We have some minor support at 0.9120ish and again at 0.9050 which is the 38.2% fib retrace level so how price reacts at these levels in conjunction with volume will provide us with some clues as to what to do next.

The down trend line will also provide another clue as will the 20 and 50 which are now coming together at the 50% fib retrace level.

Of course, this thing could also continue north which would tell us something completely different.

Keep watching.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #237
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:17am Mar 11, 2009 4:17am
Quoting strat
I thought you were in the UK? Doesn't your candle close at midnight GMT?
I use WHC MetaTrader or ODL MetaTrader for my charting. WHC are Russian based so the candles close at 10pm UK time. ODL are UK based and the candles close at midnight.
  • #238
  • Mar 11, 2009 4:35am Mar 11, 2009 4:35am
Quoting strat
Then I get to your last sentence and I take back everything good I said about you!

"Maybe i'll just wait and see what Nicola does, always a winner!"

Dan, you will never, EVER, get your Aston Martin thinking like this! First of all Nicola (elitejets) is NOT ALWAYS a winner - NONE OF US ARE!

Have you asked her if she can be your signal service? If you do, I hope she says NO!

If you are on here, then you should be here to learn and understand and trade for yourself. Trading on someone else's beliefs is the [b]ROAD...
Hi Strat, thanks for your response. Just to clarify on the above, no, i have never asked and never will ask Nicola to be my 'signal service'. But what what i do like about her is (and i hope she doesn't mind me saying) she is also a relative newbie and has learnt things very quickly, applied them correctly and succeeded. Of course Nicola has lost as well, eveybody does and anyone who tells you otherwise is fibbing!

But i think Nicola is proof that the information is there in front of us if we can interpret it correctly - i look forward to her posts and i wish her all the success in the world.

Bounce to 1.5000! Ha, i suppose you are right, but when i look at Cable on a weekly chart it doesn't seem to far fetched, does it? Of course there is resistance bewteen here and there, but i am trying to learn to look at the bigger picture and on the weekly, 1.5000 is almost a blip!

With regards my forum name, AstonDan, you got it, i'm hoping it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy like Fib lines!

Thanks again Strat,

Dan
  • #239
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:54am Mar 11, 2009 5:54am
[quote=strat;2593832]
Quoting Baba G

Our trading likeness and similarities are uncanny - I don't look at how many pips I make on a trade - I just like seeing it go to free and then I don't really care after that. I maybe just check the accounts once a month also but only to make sure the brokers are not screwing me.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Well like i said to Elitejets thats one of the reasons i had to get away from the forum so i could get a bit of peace from the voices."All these pips everyone got" it would go " and i only got 10 but that ten felt like a million" "AAAAAHHHH".I understand that joyful glee which Elitejets wanted to share but on the whole its best to think in % unless like you say its for workin out an average.The other side of the coin is its better to talk about your losses in % too. "i made 500 pips" or "0.5% up" or "i lossed 750 pips" or "0.75% down".And the mind goes"well 0.5% up,0.75% down thats about even,new balls!"Theres an old saying"you only ever trade yourself,not the markets"...G
  • #240
  • Mar 11, 2009 5:57am Mar 11, 2009 5:57am
Quoting strat
Nicola,

I've just noticed your new description "Darksider Wannabe" - very strange - is there something you want to share with us?

Also what happened to your old avatar? I used to enjoy looking at your brains!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Yes now you have brought that to our attention i think an explination is in order young lady hey Strat!!
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