also another thing I always like to do personally is keep my charts a bit more zoomed out. Notice how small this pin looks now compared to being zoomed in. Then it looks like a super big pin.
Mike
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
james16 Chart Thread
- #23,405
- Mar 10, 2009 11:09am Mar 10, 2009 11:09am
Hi Marco,
I have traded the J16 method live on DAILY charts since 1/20/09 looking at over 20 pairs - I know it's less than 3 months but I think it's still significant. When I first started reading this thread I was looking for the same statistics that you are...however you will learn that with such a discretionary system these statistics will not mean that much to you. Because we all use different exit strategies a lot of people could take the same pin but some exit with a loss, some breakeven and some with a profit. Also some would take a pin that someone else wouldn't even consider (case in point ME, I know I'm not as picky as I should be....but at least I try to exit quickly
)
1 - There were trades where I risked 150 pips and I made 150 or 85 pips or 8 pips. I think if you averaged them it would be around 70% -80% of the risk taken.
2- Out of 20 trades since Jan 20 I only had 3 complete losers.
3 - On the losers I lost the maximum $ amount that I planned for before taking the trade. For me that is around 2%-3% of the account.
4- The % win rate is 17/20 is 85%. However some trades were only breakeven trades like +5 or +2 so those are included in the win rate.
5- Biggest drawdown was 1 losing trade. No two losing trades were consecutive.
6 - I am trying to stick to risking 2% max on a trade. That might be too much...I know some people recommend 1%.
7- Sorry I don't have an equity curve.
Also another thing to keep in mind is that the win rate is really high but what it hides is that my complete losers were bigger than most of my winners....So in order to make up for 1 loser I would need 1 winner and 1/2 or maybe even 2. Still even taking that into account, the results of my trading in Net $ have been positive in these 2 months and I am very excited to continue to refine my trading style with the J16 method, to be pickier about my entries and exit quickly and move to Breakeven fast.
I have to thank Jim, Mike and all the other long time members here for the invaluable lessons they have shared in this FREE thread.
I have traded the J16 method live on DAILY charts since 1/20/09 looking at over 20 pairs - I know it's less than 3 months but I think it's still significant. When I first started reading this thread I was looking for the same statistics that you are...however you will learn that with such a discretionary system these statistics will not mean that much to you. Because we all use different exit strategies a lot of people could take the same pin but some exit with a loss, some breakeven and some with a profit. Also some would take a pin that someone else wouldn't even consider (case in point ME, I know I'm not as picky as I should be....but at least I try to exit quickly
)1 - There were trades where I risked 150 pips and I made 150 or 85 pips or 8 pips. I think if you averaged them it would be around 70% -80% of the risk taken.
2- Out of 20 trades since Jan 20 I only had 3 complete losers.
3 - On the losers I lost the maximum $ amount that I planned for before taking the trade. For me that is around 2%-3% of the account.
4- The % win rate is 17/20 is 85%. However some trades were only breakeven trades like +5 or +2 so those are included in the win rate.
5- Biggest drawdown was 1 losing trade. No two losing trades were consecutive.
6 - I am trying to stick to risking 2% max on a trade. That might be too much...I know some people recommend 1%.
7- Sorry I don't have an equity curve.
Also another thing to keep in mind is that the win rate is really high but what it hides is that my complete losers were bigger than most of my winners....So in order to make up for 1 loser I would need 1 winner and 1/2 or maybe even 2. Still even taking that into account, the results of my trading in Net $ have been positive in these 2 months and I am very excited to continue to refine my trading style with the J16 method, to be pickier about my entries and exit quickly and move to Breakeven fast.
I have to thank Jim, Mike and all the other long time members here for the invaluable lessons they have shared in this FREE thread.
Hi there,
I didn't post here but I'm a follower of the thread for a while now, trading daily pins.
I got some tough questions here, not expecting to get a lot of answers, but I'll try anyway.
I'd like to know from those of you who trade mostly daily pins for at least 3 months profitably:
- Looking at your trades, on winning trades, how much % do you make of what you risk on average? (Say you risk 100 pips and make 10 pips that would be 10%)
- How many complete losers did you have (initial stop hit)
- Of the other losers, how much % did you lose...
- #23,411
- Mar 10, 2009 1:08pm Mar 10, 2009 1:08pm
I don't trade the 1 hr, but here is a nice looking PB with strong divergence on ucad 1 hr. Let's see how she does.
Low came out to be 1.26770 on the next bar, therefore my limit buy was never filled... can't be mad for trying to be disciplined though.
Omnia Vanitas
- #23,412
- Mar 10, 2009 1:15pm Mar 10, 2009 1:15pm
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: "The Dude abides" | 160 Posts
Hmm.. decided to play it as the 38.2% ret of the PB was at 1.2768 for me, which, with last Friday's low at 1.2766, seemed significant enough.
Low came out to be 1.26770 on the next bar, therefore my limit buy was never filled... can't be mad for trying to be disciplined though.
Looks like E/J is finally going down. Can I get out at BE or should I hold for profits?
DJI also looks like its rally may be exhausted.
- #23,415
- Mar 10, 2009 1:38pm Mar 10, 2009 1:38pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Inertial Member | 2,297 Posts
- #23,419
- Mar 10, 2009 2:13pm Mar 10, 2009 2:13pm
- | Joined Nov 2008 | Status: "The Dude abides" | 160 Posts
It came exactly to 50% of my original TP. I like to take quick profits.
Also another thing is, don't let a winner turn into a loser. James16 mantra.
