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  • #9,601
  • Mar 10, 2009 7:24am Mar 10, 2009 7:24am
Quoting LeveragedJoe
The BillyRay rules say that you shouldn't fade this level as the price retraced <20 pips off of it.

That doesn't mean that the level is not gonna work, it just isn't in line with the original strategy.

For more on this subject:
http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/...n-to-fade.html
Burst through it without a doubt. Now en route to 1.2787, but big momentum and BB to speak in 5min.. beware, vol is lurking Id say.
Omnia Vanitas
  • #9,602
  • Mar 10, 2009 8:29am Mar 10, 2009 8:29am
Quoting Thexder
When it reached this low I watched and decided it was ok to take it back up and it didn't look back at my break even stop. I'm up around +100
What was I observing to take it?
I like to see the marked target levels reached as close as possible without going too far past that level. This one went 11 past the target low so I was ok with that.
Then I wanted to make note of the momentum on the way to that point and what was going on while it was there.
Just before reaching this target low it started to make a run for that low from somewhere higher up,...
Excellent trade but my concern was that price would bypass this shorter term bounce point (your 1.1485ish) for the 1.1465 daily level, perhaps go a little past that and all of the sudden you're stuck with a larger stop/reduced lot size to allow for proper risk management.

Zooming into the 5m for a peak at the price action, I can see that there was a good 20 minutes of consolidation before price jumped upwards. Based on that, I suppose one could entered at market...

What are your thoughts on the above?

I can easily see the proper bounce levels but can just as easily talk myself out of a level because of this or that. 1.1465 was my concern in this case.

Great trade on your part. Thanks Thexder
  • #9,603
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:05am Mar 10, 2009 9:05am
Quoting TheArtist
Burst through it without a doubt. Now en route to 1.2787, but big momentum and BB to speak in 5min.. beware, vol is lurking Id say.
Yep, pretty cool, apparently Billy Ray knows what he's talking about:
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1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #9,604
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:28am Mar 10, 2009 9:28am
Quoting sam0182
Excellent trade but my concern was that price would bypass this shorter term bounce point (your 1.1485ish) for the 1.1465 daily level, perhaps go a little past that and all of the sudden you're stuck with a larger stop/reduced lot size to allow for proper risk management.
That was the next area I had marked, and that's where sitting and watching it as I described comes into play (whether I had another nearby level or not) to make sure it doesn't blow through whatever my first watch point is. So when I watched it go below 85 quickly, it didn't make it to 65,about half way instead and then it sprung back up (sprung or sprang? is sprang a word?) and consolidated a while. So I thought it had a chance to go up instead of immediately lower, the big drop for now was likely done. I've just been trying to pay attention to the momentum around these areas and I'm getting a feel for what it might do in the near future.

If it only gradually approached either of those levels like the 45 degree lower time frame stair case, I probably wouldn't trade it. I have to see it rush there but then take control near that area (not blast through). So I have to go in at market with this discretional analysis of mine when I think it's time.

Now it's gone down below 65 but it blew past it by 30 something, which for me is a bit too far (the train I don't want to step in front of) so I passed on that, but if it had stopped maybe around 50 or higher I'd have watched for a while and considered getting in if it looked stable.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #9,605
  • Mar 10, 2009 9:45am Mar 10, 2009 9:45am
Quoting Thexder
That was the next area I had marked, and that's where sitting and watching it as I described comes into play (whether I had another nearby level or not) to make sure it doesn't blow through whatever my first watch point is. So when I watched it go below 85 quickly, it didn't make it to 65,about half way instead and then it sprung back up (sprung or sprang? is sprang a word?) and consolidated a while. So I thought it had a chance to go up instead of immediately lower, the big drop for now was likely done. I've just been trying to pay attention to...
Sounds good, thanks for the breakdown.

Yeah, it blowing past 65 was discouraging but that being said, we just had the bounce at 85 which was close enough to the 1.1465 level to virtually negate it as a "no brainer" type, I believe? So, both levels should have been watched and traded accordingly, which is what you did. I expected the more dominate level of 1.1465 to be the one tested but that was not the case.

Awesome, thanks Thex for the explanation, it helps. Eyes on 1.14 now.
  • #9,606
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:08am Mar 10, 2009 10:08am
What a crap day for set ups so far.
  • #9,607
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:15am Mar 10, 2009 10:15am
Quoting RedCabbage
What a crap day for set ups so far.
i second that!!!
slow market...
  • #9,608
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:24am Mar 10, 2009 10:24am
Quoting RedCabbage
What a crap day for set ups so far.
How about a short at 6509?
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  • #9,609
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:30am Mar 10, 2009 10:30am
Quoting Grath
How about a short at 6509?
Better chart than MT4 produced.....
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  • #9,610
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:54am Mar 10, 2009 10:54am
Quoting Grath
Better chart than MT4 produced.....
I'll wait for 6540...but may miss it then.
  • #9,611
  • Mar 10, 2009 10:55am Mar 10, 2009 10:55am
AUDUSD anywhere above 6500 is worth a look.

Only USDCHF and USDCAD have given anything interesting today which is unusual.
  • #9,612
  • Mar 10, 2009 11:50am Mar 10, 2009 11:50am
Continuing my role of posting examples of what not to do:

Short NZ @ .5000; repeat SR, possible trendline confluence (chart attached).

Hit the line and blew right through and stopped me out this morning.

On the plus side, my U/J trade from yesterday, after hanging around for 24 hours in the negative, finally dropped and hit my +80 TP. Hard to get too excited about that one as that kind of response seems more like luck rather than a real reaction from the line.
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  • #9,613
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:02pm Mar 10, 2009 12:02pm
Quoting orcus
Continuing my role of posting examples of what not to do:

Short NZ @ .5000; repeat SR, possible trendline confluence (chart attached).

Hit the line and blew right through and stopped me out this morning.

On the plus side, my U/J trade from yesterday, after hanging around for 24 hours in the negative, finally dropped and hit my +80 TP. Hard to get too excited about that one as that kind of response seems more like luck rather than a real reaction from the line.
No, that USDJPY is a great result. It may have taken an age to do it but the rejection of any price above 9900 was what we were looking for.

I closed mine at b/e out of boredom, that's what not to do.

http://www.jonrb.com/emoticons/getmecoat.gif
  • #9,614
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:20pm Mar 10, 2009 12:20pm
Quoting orcus
On the plus side, my U/J trade from yesterday, after hanging around for 24 hours in the negative, finally dropped and hit my +80 TP. Hard to get too excited about that one as that kind of response seems more like luck rather than a real reaction from the line.
I agree, that was a good one, price responded to that level, not right away, but the wicks to the top showed great indecision. I put in a sell stop below the range for this setup, but got stopped out at BE.
  • #9,615
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:22pm Mar 10, 2009 12:22pm
Quoting orcus
Continuing my role of posting examples of what not to do:

Short NZ @ .5000; repeat SR, possible trendline confluence (chart attached).

Hit the line and blew right through and stopped me out this morning.

On the plus side, my U/J trade from yesterday, after hanging around for 24 hours in the negative, finally dropped and hit my +80 TP. Hard to get too excited about that one as that kind of response seems more like luck rather than a real reaction from the line.
Orcus,

Your trade triggered at .5000 or on the initial "almost" price action to .4997?

Good work on the U/J trade, I saw that it had dumped and was hoping you had kept it on.
  • #9,616
  • Mar 10, 2009 12:45pm Mar 10, 2009 12:45pm
Sam - my NZ sell was at .5000 exactly. My chart shows a bit of a reaction at .4993 at 4am EST, but it only moved away for around 20 pips so I left the order on.
  • #9,617
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:50pm Mar 10, 2009 1:50pm
USD/CHF looks like a sell if we can reach 1.1675-1.1685.
  • #9,618
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:50pm Mar 10, 2009 2:50pm
Quoting sam0182
USD/CHF looks like a sell if we can reach 1.1675-1.1685.
Meh, I don't want it to react too harshly to this 1.1647 line...
  • #9,619
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:25pm Mar 10, 2009 3:25pm
Quoting sam0182
Meh, I don't want it to react too harshly to this 1.1647 line...
hey guys, mind me asking what too harshly could be defined as?

thanks
The way is narrow
  • #9,620
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:05pm Mar 10, 2009 4:05pm
Quoting Sainz4Pips
hey guys, mind me asking what too harshly could be defined as?

thanks
I was looking for it to muck around within a 10-15 point range and then continue upwards to what I consider a more reliable reisistance (more sell orders waiting) @ 1.1675-85
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