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  • #201
  • Mar 9, 2009 7:47pm Mar 9, 2009 7:47pm
Quoting reddog19
Strat,
I'm finding your thread immensely rewarding!
You often refer to "momentum" being up, down etc.
What do you use to determine momentum?
RD
Again, it is something experimental that I have cobbled together in the absence of something already available. So far, it is pretty accurate but I have yet to use it "live" at trend changes and major swings to fully see the benefit (and if it really does "work").

It has changed to DOWN on USDCHF but I'm waiting to see if USDCHF prices follow it - this will be the first big test.

Looking back in history it works very well but there again I can program anything to look good in history.

It isn't any Meta 4 indicator or the usual "momentum" history indicators such as CCI, MACD, RSI, Momentum etc., - I think my opinions on those and others like them are pretty clear now - if not, let me know - I love telling my horror stories.

I have also developed a Momentum Trading System which is so simple and profitable it is almost unbelieveable - that really does make trading boring! I'm waiting for a certain person to test it on shorter time frames for me - I can't do it because I get screwed up on anything less than the Daily.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #202
  • Mar 9, 2009 9:35pm Mar 9, 2009 9:35pm
I am very pleased that people are learning and making profits from this thread. That was my reason for starting it - to give back. Interestingly, and I never thought about it, it is making me remember so many things I had forgotten or taken for granted.

Now a personal request - please do not post how many pips you made on this thread. If you feel the need to brag (which is what I call it when I see posts with pips on), feel free to PM me.

The reason I don't like it is because I think it has more negative connotations than it has positives. For example, someone may post he made 900 pips on such and such a move whereas another trader may have only made 700 pips and thought he was doing really well until he read about the 900 pips. Also, there will be new traders and losing traders on this thread and pips made by the successful traders could force these new and losing guys to make trades that are not there.

Thank you.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #203
  • Edited Mar 10, 2009 8:49am Mar 9, 2009 9:37pm | Edited Mar 10, 2009 8:49am
Hey Strat
I know you are in China but I hope you check in and see this. Thanks to your analysis I had my plan all ready for 6Am London time this morning and thanks to your analysis I had the following amazing day:

Shorted GBPCHF from break of trendline at 16335 (prolly got out too early but did not want to screw up)
Shorted GBPUSD on break of 4hrly trendline at 1.4040
Shorted GBPJPY off 4hr20MA from 138.66
Went long USDCAD on first dip I liked
Long EURGBP on breakout of upper trendline on daily.

Having the support and resistance lines on the higher timeframe charts really helps me have real targets, loads more patience and less panic.

I did start the day with one loser, I shorted EURGBP from an hourly pin bar on Friday afternoon and left the trade on. Still if I had read your analysis first I would have known I was going the wrong way!!

My orders are waiting for Aussie and Euro ... but a great day and a bunch of pips and if no other setups come my way all week I'm still thrilled.
THANK YOU!!

Nicola
PS - Still only trading $1 a pip but confidence is returning!!
  • #204
  • Mar 9, 2009 10:26pm Mar 9, 2009 10:26pm
Anyone that knows me knows that I am a rebel, non-conformist and a non conventionalist (among many other derogatory words the trouble and strife calls me).

That being the case, I will probably stir up a can of worms, open pandora's box (anyone seen inside pandora's box?) etc., by saying:

I am only interested in the CLOSE of a candle. I do not care where it started, where it's been, how far it's gone or why it went there, only where it ended up.

I do not use highs and lows for any of my analysis - not even for trend lines.

Feel free to disagree with me - I don't care! If you saw my charts you would see that prices stop on, or very near, my support and resistance lines as if they had run into The Great Wall of China. That is why I don't care if the rest of the trading world disagrees with me.

My method for determining support and resistance also takes the time element out of the equation. This means that I can accurately predict the price, at some point in time, within a small percent, at which buyers will buy and sellers will sell.

For those getting ready to ask which indicator do I use to do this, it is the one between my ears.

For those who think I am full of the proverbial horse manure, and again, I don't care if you do, let me show you an example using USDJPY.

If my light had gone in 1995, I would have known that the price of 94.21 would act as support and resistance in October 2008 through February 2009.

See attached Weekly and Daily charts.

I have not shown how I identified 94.21 but all will be revealed in good time. Suffice it to say, everything you need is staring at you on that Weekly chart.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy weely to 1993.gif Size: 23 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy daily march 10 09.gif Size: 28 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #205
  • Mar 9, 2009 10:53pm Mar 9, 2009 10:53pm
EURGBP closed above two levels of minor resistance and one level of major resistance AND the down trend line of the triangle.

However, all 4 cycles are topping and for such a strong up move, volume is pretty anemic suggesting it may not be able to sustain these lofty levels.

The next minor resistance is at 0.9300 with major resistance at 0.9450.

If it can hold that down trend line on the highs it will pretty much confirm the trend change and the charge to parity.

Apart from the December 2008 highs, we are fast approaching historical highs which reduces the accuracy of my support and resistance (to a certain point).

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #206
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:16am Mar 10, 2009 2:16am
We did it bro,thank the trading gods i had monthly and weeklys on each pair and the daily nice nice nice.

I have really loved our communications we are singing the same song and i look forward to continuing the rock n roll.Right now its "Exodus" as i take a little shore leave.And elitejet hit a home run too will she ever look at a 5 min again?some how i doubt it lol.

Im crankin up the ACDC and hitting that highway of hell as nothing else matters apart from i was born to be wild..

F.X. I laugh in the face of the world most competitive market....for now eeek
  • #207
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:19am Mar 10, 2009 2:19am
Any one for tennis?
  • #208
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:41am Mar 10, 2009 2:41am
nice going baba and elite...

gbp crosses were definitely the place to be yesterday....
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #209
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:41am Mar 10, 2009 2:41am
Quoting Baba G
We did it bro,thank the trading gods i had monthly and weeklys on each pair and the daily nice nice nice.

I have really loved our communications we are singing the same song and i look forward to continuing the rock n roll.Right now its "Exodus" as i take a little shore leave.And elitejet hit a home run too will she ever look at a 5 min again?some how i doubt it lol.

Im crankin up the ACDC and hitting that highway of hell as nothing else matters apart from i was born to be wild..

F.X. I laugh in the face of the world most competitive market....for...
Hasta la pasta then. How long are you gone for? Are you flat or still trading while you're gone? Which highway are you taking - the M25?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #210
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:42am Mar 10, 2009 2:42am
Quoting Baba G
Any one for tennis?
Have you got the balls?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #211
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:01am Mar 10, 2009 3:01am
lol The M25!!!!

Im all locked off with free trades ridin dont need to be here for that.Are you a Blighter? i sense that monty python in you.In fact we should run a Spanish inquisition trading educational thread:

There are 3 things vital to trading

1.Entry
2,Management
3.Exit
4.Money management
oh damn out out out lets start again xx
  • #212
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:26am Mar 10, 2009 3:26am
Quoting Baba G
lol The M25!!!!

Im all locked off with free trades ridin dont need to be here for that.Are you a Blighter? i sense that monty python in you.In fact we should run a Spanish inquisition trading educational thread:

There are 3 things vital to trading

1.Entry
2,Management
3.Exit
4.Money management
oh damn out out out lets start again xx
Are you related to George W. Bush?

3 things:
1.Entry
2,Management
3.Exit
4.Money management

Yorkshire born and bred

Yes, a big John Cleese fan - he lives in Santa Barbara, CA where our daughter used to live. We saw him in the mall there - he looked like a long streak of misery well and truly hen pecked!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #213
  • Mar 10, 2009 3:51am Mar 10, 2009 3:51am
[quote=strat;2591088]I am very pleased that people are learning and making profits from this thread. That was my reason for starting it - to give back. Interestingly, and I never thought about it, it is making me remember so many things I had forgotten or taken for granted.

Now a personal request - please do not post how many pips you made on this thread. If you feel the need to brag (which is what I call it when I see posts with pips on), feel free to PM me.

The reason I don't like it is because I think it has more negative connotations than it has positives. For example, someone may post he made 900 pips on such and such a move whereas another trader may have only made 700 pips and thought he was doing really well until he read about the 900 pips. Also, there will be new traders and losing traders on this thread and pips made by the successful traders could force these new and losing guys to make trades that are not there.
Baba G says;
Three huzzars to that,its not good even for the individual i have no idea how many pips i get who cares? it dosent really matter.Its all about the plan.well i think its time for a nice bath lol
  • #214
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:05am Mar 10, 2009 4:05am
Watch as price bounces off and around these lines.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: usdjpy s&r march 10 09.gif Size: 29 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #215
  • Mar 10, 2009 4:14am Mar 10, 2009 4:14am
Hi Strat,

Thank you for your response.

Please can you explain more:

The Friday price bar itself and the two before it told me so many things – How do you read these bars?
The volume on that bar and the two before it told me so many things – How do you analyze volume?
Three out of four cycles were in correct alignment – You keep referring to these cycles, where can I get more information on these?
Downward momentum is accelerating – how did you work this out?

Thanks,



Quoting strat
No, but you are thinking along the right lines. I don't trade pin bars, in fact, I don't recognise pin bars but I do trade shooting stars, hammers and hanging men.

There were so many reasons all coming together in my method:

Continuation of downtrend
Strong rejection by the 20
Strong rejection by minor resistance at 1.4220
The Friday price bar itself and the two before it told me so many things (and no, it's not a J16 pin bar or any of their other descriptions).
I anticipated it being a swing top
The volume on that bar and the two before it told...
  • #216
  • Mar 10, 2009 8:01am Mar 10, 2009 8:01am
I will test it for you

Quoting strat
Again, it is something experimental that I have cobbled together in the absence of something already available. So far, it is pretty accurate but I have yet to use it "live" at trend changes and major swings to fully see the benefit (and if it really does "work").

It has changed to DOWN on USDCHF but I'm waiting to see if USDCHF prices follow it - this will be the first big test.

Looking back in history it works very well but there again I can program anything to look good in history.

It isn't any Meta 4 indicator or the usual "momentum"...
  • #217
  • Mar 10, 2009 11:20am Mar 10, 2009 11:20am
Strat,

I understand some of the S/R on the USDJPY, but not all of them. How do you decide what is S/R?

Cheers

Bloom
  • #218
  • Mar 10, 2009 11:30am Mar 10, 2009 11:30am
Zoom out on your time frame and see how many times price has been there and pop a line in.Practice for ages.......G
  • #219
  • Mar 10, 2009 11:32am Mar 10, 2009 11:32am
Quoting strat
Watch as price bounces off and around these lines.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
nice chart.
  • #220
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:35pm Mar 10, 2009 1:35pm
Quoting strat
Anyone that knows me knows that I am a rebel, non-conformist and a non conventionalist...................

.............I am only interested in the CLOSE of a candle...........
So when you are drawing S/R lines and trend lines you only use the CLOSE?

Also for Fibs?

What about setting your S/L? Do you set it above/below the CLOSE of a recent swing high/low?

Does it affect how you see price action?

Thanks Strat
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