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  • #181
  • Mar 9, 2009 6:24am Mar 9, 2009 6:24am
I believe Strat said early in the thread that the 20's are ema and the 50's are sma.

The BOSS's are the weekly's

Have a re-read to check it out

TonyH
  • #182
  • Mar 9, 2009 7:16am Mar 9, 2009 7:16am
The pairs break out of those god awful ranges we were stuck in all last week, and pretty much in the directions we thought they would! GBP/USD sell stop triggered at 1.4035 (moved it up to Friday's low) and sitting on nice profits already. I'm targeting down to 1.3600 for this move.
  • #183
  • Mar 9, 2009 8:13am Mar 9, 2009 8:13am
nice one tgs..i was watching it around 14000 and expected a pullback so I didn't get in...then of course other stuff came up..oh well..move on..however I would have expected some kind of pullback instead it just kept on going...and going and going...

new ad for energizer?
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #184
  • Edited 9:03am Mar 9, 2009 8:36am | Edited 9:03am
Quoting coscorp
however I would have expected some kind of pullback instead it just kept on going...and going and going...

new ad for energizer?
Thanks coscorp. As for the going and going (down) part - I was expecting it. The previous move down past 1.3900 didn't stop until it bottomed out at 1.3550 or so. There's very little support between those two levels. We're currently at a minor support level of 1.3760 which might be enough to hold us for the rest of the day, considering we've also moved nearly 400 pips. But I fully expect the trend to resume down to 1.3550.

I'm also planning to leave the trade open when it does get down there.

edit: A retrace here will be a good place for an additional entry. Will have to wait until I get in front of charts to comment on where exactly I'd plan to add.
  • #185
  • Mar 9, 2009 10:21am Mar 9, 2009 10:21am
This pair is down 550 pips today!!
Nice Calls Strat and BabaG
  • #186
  • Mar 9, 2009 10:45am Mar 9, 2009 10:45am
yummy yummy lol
  • #187
  • Mar 9, 2009 2:09pm Mar 9, 2009 2:09pm
Hi Strat,

Why would you put a sell stop below the low of the GBPUSD? are you trying to play it as a pin bar? or is it because price closed below the 1.41 resistance level?

Thanks,

Quoting strat
I had my SL still above the swing high.
You'll probably get your IB on Sunday if you want to count that - I have used them many times but they have to be at the right location at the right time.

A sell stop under Friday's low on GBPUSD will do the trick - volume supports the move down but the shorter cycle has still to top while the others are down so there may just be a wobble before it makes it's merry way down.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
  • #188
  • Edited 9:05pm Mar 9, 2009 3:34pm | Edited 9:05pm
Quoting Jeev121
Hi Strat

Thanks for the links to J16 thread and summary...not had a chance to look over it yet...with two small girls my weekends are hectically busy with them.

A couple of quick questions if I may...

I was following another thread (on another forum) last year by a trader of the handle Trader_Dante, who also based his experince and teachings around the J16 teachings...however he uses, I believe, the bar itself as a stop loss rather than a swing high/low...eg if you enter long on a break above of a previous pin bar...then a reversal in price...
Bloody hell Jeeve, I've done me 'ed in trying to answer this!

With regard to stop loss, if that is how Trader Dante did it for his method then he must know it works for him. There are as many ways to set up your Forex ATM machine as there are traders. I cannot comment on what works for one method compared to another. The way I trade, Price Action using Support and Resistance, I would be stopped out on most trades if I did what you suggest. Since I'm trading reactions to Support and Resistance, my stops have to go either above/below Support and Resistance or at swings. For me, they have to be away from the noise of all the time frames below the Daily. This is all part of the PLAN. If you have done your analysis correctly then you will set stops according to that and let the market work it out for you. There are no emotions. You either believe in yourself and your plan or you will never make it in this business. When I place my stop loss, I EXPECT the MMs to run the stops and clean everyone out BUT I believe in my plan and let it run accordingly. I also don't put in hard stops.

I only read a post about a week ago on FF about a guy that was complaining that he set his stop and the market came back and took him out only to turn around after a further 20 pips and go in the direction of his trade. It will ALWAYS do that if you put your stop in front of resistance and support. Support and Resistance are proven areas in history where buyers have bought and sellers have sold.

One more thing, if you take a piece of method A, and a piece of method B with a squirt of method C, it won't work. A method is an all embracing strategy.

Time difference. I was going to go into a long disertation of time frames but it will not serve any point. The time is set based on the data feed from your broker. Yes different brokers wherever they are in the world have different time feeds. This means that what may appear as a hammer on my data may not be a hammer on someone with a different time data feed. It is not worth worrying about because at the end of the day we are all trading PROBABILITY and things like this, always average themselves out. You should not worry about what is happenning on a different time data feed because you cannot trade that. You can only trade the data presented to you by your broker.

Only control that which you have the ability and resources to control and ignore anything you cannot control.

Damn! I've just written that and realised why the trouble and strife is always asking why I ignore her! Need a new plan for that!

Hope this helps,

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #189
  • Edited 5:37pm Mar 9, 2009 3:38pm | Edited 5:37pm
Quoting elitejets
Hello Lao!
300 pips is quite an achievement on a 15minute chart with a 15minute system, I would love to know how you did it
I started out trading the 15min but I found that you could only get that kind of pippage if you took the set up from much higher timeframes, used the higher time frames for support and resistance and only used the 15min for entries.
Most people who trade the 15min are actively watching/managing their trades will get out at the first sign of any reversal (or suffer some stress while they ride the waves) which makes that kind...
I'm guessing Lao was in fantasy land when he wrote this. How many times, with the benefit of hindsight, have we said if only I had done this, then this would have happened. Trying to do it in the HERE and NOW is something TOTALLY DIFFERENT. I suspect his system is no better than yours, Queen Nicola!

I have just noticed his avatar - he is in LaLa land!
Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #190
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:40pm Mar 9, 2009 3:40pm
Quoting foredog
If i may answer part of your question regarding the stops.

I believe there is no real right or wrong place to have the stop, just personal preference. Td's stops may be closer than Strat's so therefore he may get stopped out more BUT if trading a % of your account on every trade then he'll also have more size on so the winners will be larger.

But also with a lot of these pin bars they will be at a swing high etc anyway (or at least the better ones are) so you've got that as well as the chart pattern to make the trade appear more likely to produce...
Good answer apart from the pin bar bit and a lot less wordy than mine!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #191
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:45pm Mar 9, 2009 3:45pm
Quoting Pirabuji
Strat what are 20 and 50? SMA OR EMA?

Also what is BOSS 20 and BOSS 50?

Thanks,
The 20 is the 20ema and the 50, the 50sma.

I trade the Daily time frame and, just as in all walks of life, everyone has a BOSS. The BOSS of the Daily time frame is the WEEKLY. So my references to BOSS always refer to the Weekly. I won't go into detail now as Timeframes will be discussed later.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #192
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:48pm Mar 9, 2009 3:48pm
Quoting ajhill
I believe Strat said early in the thread that the 20's are ema and the 50's are sma.

The BOSS's are the weekly's

Have a re-read to check it out

TonyH
Well done, Tony. That research has done you the world of good!
Keep doing what you're doing said the actress to the Bishop!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #193
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:52pm Mar 9, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting thegunslinger
The pairs break out of those god awful ranges we were stuck in all last week, and pretty much in the directions we thought they would! GBP/USD sell stop triggered at 1.4035 (moved it up to Friday's low) and sitting on nice profits already. I'm targeting down to 1.3600 for this move.
Patience and waiting for the trade to come to us is the difference between winning and losing (read amateurs and pros). The "dead area" (trapped between support and resistance) is where most traders lose their money. We may not make many trades (and I don't want to) but the ones we make have a higher percent of success with usually a higher Gladys Knight count.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #194
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:53pm Mar 9, 2009 3:53pm
Quoting coscorp
nice one tgs..i was watching it around 14000 and expected a pullback so I didn't get in...then of course other stuff came up..oh well..move on..however I would have expected some kind of pullback instead it just kept on going...and going and going...

new ad for energizer?
Read the Nike ad again - "JUST DO IT!"

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #195
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:55pm Mar 9, 2009 3:55pm
Quoting elitejets
This pair is down 550 pips today!!
Nice Calls Strat and BabaG
Thank you, Nicola. (Remember this when we get others wrong!)

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #196
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:57pm Mar 9, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting Baba G
yummy yummy lol
If I remember right, the song goes,

"yummy, yummy, yummy I got love in my tummy" can't remember who by though.

So, new balls eh?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #197
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:05pm Mar 9, 2009 4:05pm
Some of my analysis now that I'm in front of my charts:

USD/JPY - The longer term trend is down. Price is currently bouncing off the 50% Fib of the down move from last August through December. Price could be forming an M Top pattern if it again drops away from this 99.00 level. A close below 97.00 and I'm selling. A close above 100 and I'm buying.

USD/CHF - This pair is a choppy mess. While that sucks since it means I'm sitting on the sidelines, it means we're probably in store for a big move when it finally happens. I'm biased more to the downside since Jan - Feb price struggled to make noticeable highs. Price has dropped back down to support around 1.1530. I'd sell on a close below that.

USD/CAD - Looking like its going to close above the big psych level that is 1.3000. I'll buy that! More specifically, my buy would be above the daily high of 1.3062 (so call it 1.3065).

EUR/USD - Price formed a LH and bounced right off the upper TL. Still can't get a close below 1.2560. But still, I'd sell if price breaks today's low of 1.2555.
  • #198
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:20pm Mar 9, 2009 4:20pm
Quoting Pirabuji
Hi Strat,

Why would you put a sell stop below the low of the GBPUSD? are you trying to play it as a pin bar? or is it because price closed below the 1.41 resistance level?

Thanks,
No, but you are thinking along the right lines. I don't trade pin bars, in fact, I don't recognise pin bars but I do trade shooting stars, hammers and hanging men.

There were so many reasons all coming together in my method:

Continuation of downtrend
Strong rejection by the 20
Strong rejection by minor resistance at 1.4220
The Friday price bar itself and the two before it told me so many things (and no, it's not a J16 pin bar or any of their other descriptions).
I anticipated it being a swing top
The volume on that bar and the two before it told me so many things
Three out of four cycles were in correct alignment
Downward momentum is accelerating
This is the second thrust to break the base trend line of the large triangle
This was at the critical 61.8% retrace level.

The planets were correctly aligned and I had just finished polishing my crystal ball!

As I have told a few people before, the market puts up signposts telling us what to do. I just saw the signpost above Friday's bar saying "Sell me - PLEASE"

If I was an aggressive trader, I would have sold at the market but then that puts me in the hands of the MMs and takes away what little control I still have left.

Watch out for major support at 1.3650 - we need to see how it reacts to that before doing anything else.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #199
  • Edited 5:08pm Mar 9, 2009 5:06pm | Edited 5:08pm
Quoting thegunslinger
Some of my analysis now that I'm in front of my charts:

USD/JPY - The longer term trend is down. Price is currently bouncing off the 50% Fib of the down move from last August through December. Price could be forming an M Top pattern if it again drops away from this 99.00 level. A close below 97.00 and I'm selling. A close above 100 and I'm buying.

Trying it's best to put in a top but the buyers are not giving in too easy. Three cycles out of four are topping with the previously failed shorter cycle looking like it may have another run up so still fighting internally. When looking at today's price bar and it's volume it suggests topping action BUT momentum is STILL accelerating to the upside!
TGS - so that we don't confuse anyone, we must qualify the time frame anytime we mention trend. The BOSS trend is down but the Daily trend is up so again another internal fight between the BOSS and it's SLAVE.

USD/CHF - This pair is a choppy mess. While that sucks since it means I'm sitting on the sidelines, it means we're probably in store for a big move when it finally happens. I'm biased more to the downside since Jan - Feb price struggled to make noticeable highs. Price has dropped back down to support around 1.1530. I'd sell on a close below that.

Sitting on the sidelines is good for exercising patience and discipline.
This thing is teetering on the edge of a cliff! In addition to price being trapped between support and resistance it is well and truly boxed in by the 20 and 50.
Today's bar just confirms the mess we are in. It is the total opposite to Friday's bar. It is firmly rejected by major resistance and is now sitting on major support! This cancels out everything the Friday bar told us and really puts us back in neutral. The cycles, or how I'm trying to follow them, have been out of whack since mid - January so forget them - Yes, I hear you, Dr. Joe!
The intriguing thing about USDCHF is that momentum has turned around and is now accelerating DOWN! For this to go down, means the EURUSD has to go up unless it somehow breaks the correlation. However, EURUSD momentum is accelerating DOWN also!
I'm sitting this one out and waiting for resolution of the 20/50 box and the descending triangle.

USD/CAD - Looking like its going to close above the big psych level that is 1.3000. I'll buy that! More specifically, my buy would be above the daily high of 1.3062 (so call it 1.3065).

Just be careful - volume is not too cracky for such a big price bar. It has also been rejected by major resistance at 1.3020 so it may just have a rest before having it's way with that overhead resistance.

EUR/USD - Price formed a LH and bounced right off the upper TL. Still can't get a close below 1.2560. But still, I'd sell if price breaks today's low of 1.2555.
Yes, back in the Daily and BOSS trend again with this current swing down but will it have enough energy to get through that major support and base trend line? Volume action suggests not. Still fighting some internal cycles but momentum is accelerating down.

I'm out until a strong close below psycho 1.2500 AND the base trend line of the descending triangle.

My input in Bold Italics

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #200
  • Mar 9, 2009 7:16pm Mar 9, 2009 7:16pm
Strat,
I'm finding your thread immensely rewarding!
You often refer to "momentum" being up, down etc.
What do you use to determine momentum?
RD
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