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  • #9,561
  • Mar 8, 2009 9:41pm Mar 8, 2009 9:41pm
Quoting Siam
Hi,

Just interested to see your ideas on going in at 97. Are you taking a bounce a break or a bouncy break Any chart would be really helpful
This continues to look like a good opportunity to buy. It has bounced off this level a few times, but I would be careful, I would want another 3-4 bars (12-16hours) to take place before it comes to the support line to avoid it from looking used and abused.

Attached Image


edit: And I would not buy at the exact 97 level, again its about the S&R lines, not about double 00s. double 00s help us, but they don't make us trade.
  • #9,562
  • Mar 8, 2009 10:50pm Mar 8, 2009 10:50pm
Quoting logiktrader
This continues to look like a good opportunity to buy. It has bounced off this level a few times, but I would be careful, I would want another 3-4 bars (12-16hours) to take place before it comes to the support line to avoid it from looking used and abused.

Attachment

edit: And I would not buy at the exact 97 level, again its about the S&R lines, not about double 00s. double 00s help us, but they don't make us trade.

Thanks,

But I wanted to know why he entered when he did. He's already in the trade.
  • #9,563
  • Mar 8, 2009 11:55pm Mar 8, 2009 11:55pm
Hi,

Here's one for you crazy kids to take note of.
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  • #9,564
  • Mar 9, 2009 12:15am Mar 9, 2009 12:15am
Quoting Siam
Hi,

Here's one for you crazy kids to take note of.
I'm hoping to break that resistance had keep going North. G/J has been in an minor (short term) uptrend for a month now.
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #9,565
  • Mar 9, 2009 7:46am Mar 9, 2009 7:46am
Shorting USD/CAD... tight 15 pips SL...
Banking on a retrace... anyone in?

update : stopped out after barely 10 mins... zzz
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  • #9,566
  • Mar 9, 2009 8:56am Mar 9, 2009 8:56am
I shorted USD/CAD at 1.3025 & 1.3050, 1.3025 has been closed at B/E with 1.3050 running, stops at breakeven. I'd really like to see this below 1.30...otherwise, I'll let it take me out at B/E.
  • #9,567
  • Mar 9, 2009 8:57am Mar 9, 2009 8:57am
Quoting Knightz
Shorting USD/CAD... tight 15 pips SL...
Banking on a retrace... anyone in?

update : stopped out after barely 10 mins... zzz
That was a superclear level, but it did not pass the test for levels which will likely hold for there was no decent amount of time/space from the last time it was hit.

That's why I preferred to ignore it.

Here's more on this subject:
http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/...n-to-fade.html
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1st step stop loss in the green 2nd step play with the free money
  • #9,568
  • Mar 9, 2009 8:59am Mar 9, 2009 8:59am
Quoting Knightz
Shorting USD/CAD... tight 15 pips SL...
Banking on a retrace... anyone in?

update : stopped out after barely 10 mins... zzz
See where you were coming from... this was strong resistance, so could turn into support now. Fancy long above 1.301
Omnia Vanitas
  • #9,569
  • Mar 9, 2009 9:13am Mar 9, 2009 9:13am
Quoting sam0182
I shorted USD/CAD at 1.3025 & 1.3050, 1.3025 has been closed at B/E with 1.3050 running, stops at breakeven. I'd really like to see this below 1.30...otherwise, I'll let it take me out at B/E.
Closed out my 1.3050 short at +60/1.2985 (+spread).
  • #9,570
  • Mar 9, 2009 10:39am Mar 9, 2009 10:39am
Quoting LeveragedJoe
That was a superclear level, but it did not pass the test for levels which will likely hold for there was no decent amount of time/space from the last time it was hit.

That's why I preferred to ignore it.

Here's more on this subject:
http://www.nobrainertrades.com/2008/...n-to-fade.html
I was prepped to take this as well but when we got close to it last week I felt that if we approach that again so soon, it will not hold. My original orders had tight stops and I canceled them last night. Good thing I did because I would have been stopped.
  • #9,571
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:15am Mar 9, 2009 11:15am
How much minimum time do you look for? That was five days ago that that resistance was established, which seems like it ought to be enough time for orders to have accumulated.
  • #9,572
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:20am Mar 9, 2009 11:20am
Would like some feedback on these two trades I took. Both seemed pretty obvious to me:

USD/CHF short @ 1.1640 -- very obvious strong support bounce on Mar 4, looking for it to become resistance; perfect confluence with 50 fib. Got stopped out by 4 pips. Possibly should just have made my range bigger to allow for the next bit of SR above, but this support bounce was so strong it seemed like the obvious one to get the reaction.

USD/JPY short @ 98.85 -- obvious support around Mar 4, looking for it to become resistance; confluence with 76fib. Still in this one but it does not look good.
  • #9,573
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:52am Mar 9, 2009 11:52am
Quoting orcus
Would like some feedback on these two trades I took. Both seemed pretty obvious to me:

USD/CHF short @ 1.1640 -- very obvious strong support bounce on Mar 4, looking for it to become resistance; perfect confluence with 50 fib. Got stopped out by 4 pips. Possibly should just have made my range bigger to allow for the next bit of SR above, but this support bounce was so strong it seemed like the obvious one to get the reaction.
Hi Orcus,

I thought about 1640, too but made the decision to wait for the resistance at 1680, which looked stronger to me:

http://img527.imageshack.us/img527/6...2mar091748.jpg

Had an inital stop of 40 pips, now at breakeven, waiting for profit target to get hit.

Marco
  • #9,574
  • Mar 9, 2009 11:52am Mar 9, 2009 11:52am
Quoting orcus
Would like some feedback on these two trades I took. Both seemed pretty obvious to me:

USD/CHF short @ 1.1640 -- very obvious strong support bounce on Mar 4, looking for it to become resistance; perfect confluence with 50 fib. Got stopped out by 4 pips. Possibly should just have made my range bigger to allow for the next bit of SR above, but this support bounce was so strong it seemed like the obvious one to get the reaction.

USD/JPY short @ 98.85 -- obvious support around Mar 4, looking for it to become resistance; confluence with 76fib. Still...
U/C - You were stopped out on that spike to 1.1653ish?? Otherwise, it looks like price came down to support/previous resist at 1.1620 before bouncing, which should have offered you 15-20points profit and at least a stops to breakeven move?

Let me know if I'm looking at the wrong timeframe for this trade...

U/J - I don't trade this pair because of the volatility but I would personally rather wait for 99.7-100, trading a small lot to allow for volatility.

I see what you're going for but with yen's volatility, it's not my deal.

Hope this helps? Let me know what you think on the USD/CHF...I'm curious if I'm seeing your trade correctly.
  • #9,575
  • Mar 9, 2009 12:01pm Mar 9, 2009 12:01pm
Marco, good call and it looks like you made it to around +100. I considered that point but thought the big spike to 1840 was just too blatant to be ignored.

Sam, price spiked to 1682 at 8:50am EST; my 40 pip SL was at 1480. Grr. Price did hit +20 before shooting back up, but I don't move to BE until +40. Do you find you have enough winning trades with a BE move that soon? Looking at my records, it seems the majority of trades would be BEs if I moved the SL any sooner than 25-30.
  • #9,576
  • Mar 9, 2009 12:28pm Mar 9, 2009 12:28pm
Quoting orcus
Marco, good call and it looks like you made it to around +100. I considered that point but thought the big spike to 1840 was just too blatant to be ignored.

Sam, price spiked to 1682 at 8:50am EST; my 40 pip SL was at 1480. Grr. Price did hit +20 before shooting back up, but I don't move to BE until +40. Do you find you have enough winning trades with a BE move that soon? Looking at my records, it seems the majority of trades would be BEs if I moved the SL any sooner than 25-30.
On that trade, with that support running at 1.1615-1.1625, I would have taken the pips and run or moved stops to B/E and look for continued movement downwards.

That is too bad about the S/L being tagged, especially when you nearly had that higher level covered.

I'm looking at this hindsight though...looks like you have your system down and this is simply a trade that didn't work. You caught the correct level but price wasn't quite ready to breakdown yet.

Your U/J trade looks to be bouncing nicely off the 99. level and nearly into a decending triangle on the 15m. I hope to see that breakdown soon.
  • #9,577
  • Mar 9, 2009 12:37pm Mar 9, 2009 12:37pm
Quoting sam0182
looks like you have your system down
I wouldn't go that far

I'm pretty much just keeping it strictly mechanical for a decent amount of time until I've accumulated enough trades (demo and live) to have a better based of experience, and a good database of info and chart captures, then I'll try to tweak from there based on how things have been playing out. Although I don't want to fall into the curve-fitting trap, either.
  • #9,578
  • Mar 9, 2009 12:41pm Mar 9, 2009 12:41pm
Quoting orcus
Marco, good call and it looks like you made it to around +100. I considered that point but thought the big spike to 1840 was just too blatant to be ignored.

Sam, price spiked to 1682 at 8:50am EST; my 40 pip SL was at 1480. Grr. Price did hit +20 before shooting back up, but I don't move to BE until +40. Do you find you have enough winning trades with a BE move that soon? Looking at my records, it seems the majority of trades would be BEs if I moved the SL any sooner than 25-30.
Hi Orcus

My USDCHF sell level was 11680.

My USDJPY was 9900 which I closed at b/e because I got fed up with it.

EURGBP 9175 was the only other level of interest today for me.

HTH
  • #9,579
  • Edited 1:57pm Mar 9, 2009 12:57pm | Edited 1:57pm
Thanks RC. At least I'm not too far off in general.

On the E/G 9175, I see a couple touches there but it definitely doesn't strike me as obvious at all. If I saw anything there it would be around 9125. What made you confident that level would be strong? Looks like it's working out so far.

Even if I'd seen that one I probably wouldn't have taken it because the momentum up to it looks too strong for my blood.
  • #9,580
  • Mar 9, 2009 1:04pm Mar 9, 2009 1:04pm
I just noticed this chart after reading your post. EG 9175 looks like a weekly pivot R2 level.

http://www.forexfactory.com/showpost...ostcount=23349
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