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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #19,021
  • Mar 7, 2009 3:51pm Mar 7, 2009 3:51pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Dear all...

I am posting this to respond my own post #19010 (page 1268) previously and I hope this will help all of us here understand about the idea behind my strategies there.

During the consolidation/ranging/extreme volatility in the market, many of us including myself suggested WAITING is the game and being patience is seems the best way for us. But I have my own limitation too. I felt too much laid back and those were times when I realised that I have missed loads of potential profits I should have made, especially when I looked back at...
Hi orange, how to get in at the opening of the signal candle? there is no signal at that moment. Like in A, before the close of the long red candle, the ADX bar indicator is not in agreement with the rest.
  • #19,022
  • Mar 7, 2009 10:47pm Mar 7, 2009 10:47pm
Quoting ttitto
Hi MACD fans,

I changed one of my EAs and made it showing where the current price is between fibo levels, fibo extensions, MAs and daily pivots. I hope you will njoy it. The thing is maybe not yet perfect but will still work on it if any reccomendations.
This way I want to thank to all publisher here for the wonderful thread!!!

The EA just draws some levels and labels on the chart. IT DOESN'T OPEN TRADES!!!
I hope this wasnt alrerady asked. I have read a great deal in this thread alrerady,,,,but the EA mentioned in the post above, the only way I could get it to work was to enable live trading mode,,,,so i assume that it wont put in the trade as mentioned in the post. Has this been everyones experience?

thanks
bulls
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #19,023
  • Mar 8, 2009 9:21am Mar 8, 2009 9:21am
Nice joob guys
  • #19,024
  • Mar 8, 2009 5:13pm Mar 8, 2009 5:13pm
Hello ALL; A new and profitable week has just began in the forex world and I wish all the best.PLEASE, I (a newbie) do have a question. HOW can I take maximum pips on very unusually long SINGLE candles like the one on USDCHF pair attached to this post? I know about taking profits at price levels, Fibo 38 and 50 levels, 89 and 21 M.As etc. But after I've taken my profit at the next price level, say 1800 price level, and I find out that the candle is still moving down, how do I get in back and still make the best out of it? Or will you even consider that as a greedy move? ---------------------------------------------- GOD, the author of all knowledge and wisdom.
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  • #19,025
  • Mar 8, 2009 5:38pm Mar 8, 2009 5:38pm
dareslife:

I'm assuming you're talking about a long entry here with the MACD RB forming...

Limit orders are the best way not to chase a market and keep yourself disciplined with letting the price come to you. This long candle would force you to have a stop that is way to large to be manageable.

For the new folks: Over time, Phillip stressed not to put too much emphasis on the MACD formations, especially RB's and RT's since these are trades that goi against the trend. The overall trend direction, like here in the Swissie is down, with the moving averages set up the way they are, even though there might be a bounce to the upside off the 365 showing. Either way, when the trend is going strong = the rhythm is there. Take a look at the current USDJPY chart with the strong trend and the MACD RT's. These would have made a few pips but they are more or less just pullback signals in an overall strong trend. Here, price moves very well with the moving averages. Only the last formation in the MACD gave a signal worthy of a lot of pips. Take the time to see how price moves with the moving averages with a strong trend. For the new faces you can check out the website for the method at http://www.fxtradeblog.com for a lot more info with the method.

I'm going to be on travel for the majority of the week and will stop by when I can....
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  • #19,026
  • Mar 8, 2009 6:55pm Mar 8, 2009 6:55pm
Quoting Palmer
Per the rules, yes. But, this pair has been so congested lately and a lot of people (here) have commented that it might be best to let this thing leave this area before considering a trade. The overall trend is down but the pair really has no flow...rhythm.
Fist off, THANKS to Phillip for starting this Thread and THANKS to everyone who has kept it alive and moving forward. With out it newbies like me may never achieve their goals.

I understand what everyone is talking about but need one of those, Oh I get it now moments, so I went back and looked at the rythm around the MA's. Would you please tell me if I am on track?

Major rhytm is when price is, on an uptrend (reverse for down trend), bouncing off the 8 ema which is above the 21 ema which is above the 89 sma which is above the 200 sma which is above the 365 ema. We should also be seeing seperation between these MA's and upward movement of the MA's. Distance will indicate speed. The market has someplace to go and is determined to get there. Basically a repeating pattern (rythm). At some point it will hit resistance and reverse.

Now the 8 and 21 ma's will always pull back to the 89 and the 89 will always pull back to the 200 and the 200 will always pull back to the 365. This happens over short, medium, and long time frames. It is during this time that we see more intrupted rythm. That is they hit the MA's, trend lines, or any support or resistance, etc. which breaks the rythm. MA's are starting to level off. Action here is a bit more chaotic but tradable. The market finds direction but is redirected or slowed for many reasons.

No market rythm is when trend lines are flat or converging and congested around each other, the market is unsure of where it wants to go, so it is in some sort of consolidation period. This may even happen when no MA's are around. Price action here will be hard to determine or may not move enough to have a good R:R. It may also be extremly chaotic. This is a risky place to trade.

This all said, we are looking for major, repeating, and somewhat predictabe movement (rythm) which occurs around the MA's.

From this basic understanding we use the method Phillip started to help us determine what is happening and from there, make logical trades.

Am I way off base? If so please correct me.
  • #19,027
  • Mar 8, 2009 8:11pm Mar 8, 2009 8:11pm
Quoting Pipdance
Fist off, THANKS to Phillip for starting this Thread and THANKS to everyone who has kept it alive and moving forward. With out it newbies like me may never achieve their goals.

I understand what everyone is talking about but need one of those, Oh I get it now moments, so I went back and looked at the rythm around the MA's. Would you please tell me if I am on track?

Major rhytm is when price is, on an uptrend (reverse for down trend), bouncing off the 8 ema which is above the 21 ema which is above the 89 sma which is above the 200 sma which is above the 365 ema.

Yes, although the 200 and the 365 can take some time to line up and start flowing with the 8/21/89.

We should also be seeing seperation between these MA's and upward movement of the MA's. Distance will indicate speed.

You're getting warmer. When the trend starts to move and the three lower ma's start to separate, this is where we want to be, either look for entries within the 1hr (only look at the 1hr when you've spent A LOT of time with the 4hr charts) or wait for price to come back to the 21 or if the trend is really strong and riding the 8 to look to get in. Pay attention for gaps to form, the distance between the hi/lo of the price bar and the 8EMA, these will get filled = price pullback. Visit the website and click on the Plan415 link for a better explanation of these price gaps.

Side note: every addition to the webiste, Plan415 and the 1hr entry info was approved by Phillip before they were added.

The market has someplace to go

These 'places to go' could be profit targets: trendlines, s/r areas Fib #'s etc.


and is determined to get there. Basically a repeating pattern (rythm). At some point it will hit resistance and reverse.

Getting hotter. These repeating patterns, or periods of strong rhythm happen over and over throughout the year. It's a matter of having the patience to let things develope. We don't know when they will start/end, we just want to find entries within those periods of strong rhythm.

Now the 8 and 21 ma's will always pull back to the 89 and the 89 will always pull back to the 200 and the 200 will always pull back to the 365. This happens over short, medium, and long time frames. It is during this time that we see more intrupted rythm. That is they hit the MA's, trend lines, or any support or resistance, etc. which breaks the rythm. MA's are starting to level off. Action here is a bit more chaotic but tradable. The market finds direction but is redirected or slowed for many reasons.

Exactly, the cleaner a chart looks the easier it is to trade...no matter what method you follow. But, here we at least have some guidelines to trade these periods of strong rhythm with.

No market rythm is when trend lines are flat or converging and congested around each other, the market is unsure of where it wants to go, so it is in some sort of consolidation period. This may even happen when no MA's are around. Price action here will be hard to determine or may not move enough to have a good R:R. It may also be extremly chaotic. This is a risky place to trade.

These periods can take a few weeks to clear out of. Remember, this is a 4hr chart we are looking at so this method will not present trades on a daily basis. Weeks can go by before a chart clears uo. The EURUSD took almost the whole month of Feb to get going. There are a lot of 'us' that follow some shorter timeframes to trade during perionds of consolidation on the 4hr. This is a totally different animal. If you have the time, Phillip also has the 5min intraday method here as well.

Never force a trade on the 4hr because it's been while for anything to show up and jumping from pair to pair 'trade spotting' will do more harm then good. I trade only two pairs with this method, the EURUSD and the USDJPY.

This all said, we are looking for major, repeating, and somewhat predictabe movement (rythm) which occurs around the MA's.

Yup.


From this basic understanding we use the method Phillip started to help us determine what is happening and from there, make logical trades.

Yup Yup
Am I way off base? If so please correct me.
I'd say just the opposite..like someone's first major league at bat and they rip a single up the middle....

There's a year's worth of charts to download on the site under the tools link. These are good to print out and make notes all over them....
  • #19,028
  • Mar 8, 2009 8:31pm Mar 8, 2009 8:31pm
THANKS Palmer !!!!!!
Now on to more studying.
  • #19,029
  • Mar 8, 2009 8:44pm Mar 8, 2009 8:44pm
Good evening everyone,

Hope you all had a wonderful weekend and are looking forward to a new week of PIPIN. I must add that my last trade last week on the EUR/USD got stopped out as price made a turnaround to the upside near the Daily trend line and also making that double bottom. I was not at home to manage my loss as I usually like to take 1/3 or half of my position off the table when I feel price might be reversing. But no worries as we cannot be right all the time and the market can do whatever it wants to do.

It is not our losses that deplete our account but the emotions involved with the loss is what deplete our accounts. If a trader can master the art of losing, then he/she will be a consistent trader.

Never chase a trade after a loss. Never seek revenge and never never get upset at a loss as it is part of the game. Think of it as a tuition for a class, you pay for it to learn and you move on.
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,030
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:53am Mar 9, 2009 4:53am
hallelujah!!!!!!!

This morning GBP has given the fantastic trade setup that is in accordance to the rules + head&shoulders formation + daily graphs look well!!! we are heading 1,3700. is there anybody else in this trade?
  • #19,031
  • Mar 9, 2009 5:07am Mar 9, 2009 5:07am
Quoting LAO
hallelujah!!!!!!!

This morning GBP has given the fantastic trade setup that is in accordance to the rules + head&shoulders formation + daily graphs look well!!! we are heading 1,3700. is there anybody else in this trade?
I would have to agree with you there LAO, although I do not really trade the GBP I must say, it was a great head and shoulders and if it continues, we might see 1.3700 this week. Price has moved very past in the past few hours and there was a great TC on the 1H to get in early on this trade and would have banked almost 200 pips by now. Great if you banked those pips and if not, patience is a virtue as there will be many others.

The bottom trend line might act as a resistance but with the head and shoulders and the momentum of price in the past few hours, it might not hold this time. But if you have banked pips up until the trend line, then you can manage your stop to take advantage of the move past the trend line if it moves and also protect your pips incase it turns around.
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,032
  • Mar 9, 2009 5:22am Mar 9, 2009 5:22am
Before I go guys, I wanted to just show what I see on the USD/JPY. There have been three touches on the rising channel line on the 4H with the recent touch and a head and shoulders formation off the trend line. Price did close below the 21ema on friday and also the 200sma on the Daily has been acting as resistance so we can go either way but my slight bias is to the upside with a tight stop loss.

Always remember that you do not need to take every signal and every trade. That is the key to keep your account active for a long time.
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,033
  • Mar 9, 2009 5:23am Mar 9, 2009 5:23am
Quoting fishmen
Hi orange, how to get in at the opening of the signal candle? there is no signal at that moment. Like in A, before the close of the long red candle, the ADX bar indicator is not in agreement with the rest.
fish...What I mean about entry @ the opening of the candle is not exactly @ the opening of the candle somehow...give it a few minutes (5min or more) before you can see the signal given.

This is also have to do with your personality. Entry is solely depends on your ATTITUDE. So does the M/M. That's why I said it is an "agressive entry" because this kind of entry is for someone who "dare to fail". Just like myself.I missed this SHORT entry as below today because I was busy.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,034
  • Mar 9, 2009 5:38am Mar 9, 2009 5:38am
Quoting daresfile
Hello orangeRANGE,
Thanks for your response to my question on what currency pair(s) to focus on which I posted yesterday (March 6) 2009 but just saw your response some minutes ago as I had to attend to some other issues. Thanks.
I've never considered the AudUsd pair before using this Phillip's 4H MACD but will now check it out.
The USDCHF pair on it's own have quite some long wicks which I'm not very comfortable with. However, I see it to be very profitable if enough stop loss is put in place.

Again thanks orangeRANGE and everyone.

-----------------------------------------------
GOD,...
My pleasure...welcome to the thred
  • #19,035
  • Mar 9, 2009 6:09am Mar 9, 2009 6:09am
Hi all...

EU make some move again. Price (see pink cirlces) and MACD are both making DT now.

I waiting for SHORT opportunity here with the recent candle closed below support TL but also still very cautious of fib 100.0% since it has made strong barrier from below since last week.

Otherwise...I will LONG from that fib.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,036
  • Mar 9, 2009 6:58am Mar 9, 2009 6:58am
Thanks to time1300 for his advice. i closed 1/3 on 201 pip. But i expect to see the 1.3700 in a few days! Daily charts are really very promising.
Does anybody find the downward euro trend exhausted? + There is divergence on the daily. I expect focusing on the long 4h setups from the 1.2400 level.

i wish everyone has a prifitable week!
  • #19,037
  • Mar 9, 2009 7:13am Mar 9, 2009 7:13am
Hi all...

I give it a try again for this one...just wanna see how strong that fib 100.0%though...

Not a good entry and SL to large if the high of previous candle is considered. Also can't risk >50pips with limited capital in acc.

TP also doesn't make sense...but just trying

HAVA A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #19,038
  • Mar 9, 2009 9:37am Mar 9, 2009 9:37am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...

I give it a try again for this one...just wanna see how strong that fib 100.0%though...

Not a good entry and SL to large if the high of previous candle is considered. Also can't risk >50pips with limited capital in acc.

TP also doesn't make sense...but just trying

HAVA A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
I screwed up this trade...didn't manage to get few pips profit before the price spike up because I went for meals. Damn it....otherwise I could save some positive pips....
  • #19,039
  • Mar 9, 2009 9:40am Mar 9, 2009 9:40am
To fishmen...

The next 2 bars maybe can be in agreement upside...watch this....
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  • #19,040
  • Mar 9, 2009 10:07am Mar 9, 2009 10:07am
Quoting LAO
hallelujah!!!!!!!

This morning GBP has given the fantastic trade setup that is in accordance to the rules + head&shoulders formation + daily graphs look well!!! we are heading 1,3700. is there anybody else in this trade?
Hi, congras! Could u explain in detail how u expect and prepare for the breakout? where is ur entry and SL. Thanks
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