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5Min Intraday System

  • #6,461
  • Mar 8, 2009 5:23pm Mar 8, 2009 5:23pm
Quoting Dahlia
Even with impeccable filters (higher lows, lower highs, news, proper market rhythm & speed, holidays, the length of the "nose", etc...), pinbars trades actually resulted in a net LOSS.
How did you determine your TP for your backtest? Or did you simply go for RR1:1? What was your win/loss ratio?

Also, did you check higher TFs for every trade your took (e.g. M15 and H1) to see what the big picture is?

Pinbars are not a Holly Grail, but the ones taken at the right location do work (on all TFs). However, as not ALL pinbars work, you need to go for higher RR.

Check this out: http://www.hquotes.com/tradehard/simulator.html

As for Ryanmcd, he was taking only PBs that were with the trend and which bounced off MA21 or mid-BB. During flat/ranging markets, he was taking the ones which hit the outer BB lines. These two "fitlers" are very powerful (thank you for teaching us that, Ryan!).
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #6,462
  • Edited 10:46pm Mar 8, 2009 6:02pm | Edited 10:46pm
Quoting Forex007
How did you determine your TP for your backtest? Or did you simply go for RR1:1? What was your win/loss ratio?

Also, did you check higher TFs for every trade your took (e.g. M15 and H1) to see what the big picture is?

Pinbars are not a Holly Grail, but the ones taken at the right location do work (on all TFs). However, as not ALL pinbars work, you need to go for higher RR.

As for Ryanmcd, he was taking only PBs that were with the trend and which bounced off MA21 or mid-BB. During flat/ranging markets, he was taking the ones which hit the outer...
My TP was determined by the average wave length, and SL was the same distance. Taking ALL the filters I listed, the win/loss ratio was 53% win, before spread. This works out to about breakeven or loss if you add in spread, slippage, and slow reflex.

I only selected PBs that went with the trend that also meet the qualifications of Phillips 5m system. (If Ryan picked the ones that bounced of the mid-BB, then we would have targetted many of the same PBs.) Didn't test for ranging conditions, since that's not part of the strategy here.

I take it that you've had success trading pin bars as a stand alone signal? How long have you been trading them? What's your TP/SL bracket? And what's your win/loss ratio?

Please feel free to PM me. I'd hate to be a starter of a Pin Bar take-over of this thread.

Thanks!
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #6,463
  • Mar 9, 2009 2:26am Mar 9, 2009 2:26am
10pips
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  • #6,464
  • Mar 9, 2009 2:39am Mar 9, 2009 2:39am
Quoting Dahlia
Hmmm... What an interesting turn of events...

Lately, I've been using pin bars as one of my entry set ups for Phillip's 5m system because it's one of the most prominent set ups in the James16 thread. Plus, it appears to be one of the more popular signals I've heard of.

However, I finally did some back tests on pin bar set ups for this system this weekend, and I was quite surprised at my findings: Even with impeccable filters (higher lows, lower highs, news, proper market rhythm & speed, holidays, the length of the "nose", etc...), pinbars...
your results are not strange i think b/c not every pinbars are tradeable,one should only trade the good pinbars and should add the news times,S/R/TL,patterns .... to it and like willem said ,pinbars should be an additional confirmation for trade and not the main reason for trade .
  • #6,465
  • Mar 9, 2009 2:58am Mar 9, 2009 2:58am
Quoting Dahlia
My TP was determined by the average wave length, and SL was the same distance. Taking ALL the filters I listed, the win/loss ratio was 53% win, before spread.
I'd hate to be a starter of a Pin Bar take-over of this thread.
I know what you mean - thread "cross-contamination" is not a popular thing at FF Yet, when trading any strategy it pays to be at least aware of some "extra-currilcular" points, I guess a bit of pinbar sidetracking would not hurt much

SL - above a pinbar. On M5 you often get good ones which are 10-20pips. So, catching a 40pip move for RR2 or even 4 is not that hard. Also, if you wait for the right setup, win/loss should be around 60-70%.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #6,466
  • Mar 9, 2009 5:06am Mar 9, 2009 5:06am
Breakeven.
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I am learning English, but still cannot speak well.
  • #6,467
  • Edited 2:11pm Mar 9, 2009 12:56pm | Edited 2:11pm
Another annoying day for me...

Trade 1 - In my attempt at giving PBs another try, I didn't pick the highest quality trade. The PB bounced off the previous swing high and seemed to be pulling back into the channel, but I really should have waited to enter when price passed UNDER the PB (which it never did). Hindsight observation #2: This pin was an average size bar, not a prominent size that you'd want in a pin. This loss is my fault, not the fault of the pin bar

Trades 2 & 3 - THIS would have been an A grade set up: a pullback after a head and shoulder break AND the beginning of a 3rd sister, hovering right under resistance. But got stopped out after moving my stop to BE. I knew this was a good set up, so I went in again. This time, letting the price move further before moving my SL to BE. Got stopped out AGAIN, only to later hit my original TPs (yes, both would have won). Grrrr....

I was just thinking: If I'm going for trades with the most favorable probabilities, and my TP is twice my SL, then it doesn't really make sense for me to move to BE just because price is moving in my favor. Why? 1) If I'm picking only grade A set ups, then odds are on my side that I'd have more of my BE trades eventually win than lose. And 2) Even if only 50% of my BE trades would have won, with a TP/SL ratio of 2/1, I would come out ahead anyways if I'd let the trade go to completion without adjusting the SL!

The upside to NOT micromanaging your trade: less button punching, less emotion involved (set it and forget it. I like that), and less stress.

Now, if I realized that I made a mistake entering the trade in the first place (ie... forgot about a major news release, due any minute), then that's different. Get out ASAP. But moving the SL to BE just because price is currently moving in my favor is not making much sense...

What do you guys think? Is anyone benefiting from moving your SL to BE once the price hits a certain point?
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Money missed is better than money lost
  • #6,468
  • Mar 9, 2009 1:05pm Mar 9, 2009 1:05pm
Advice given to another member in a pm (question was about which is the better choice for newbie - 4Macd strategy or 5 min intraday? In the future can I use this strategies together??):

My Advice:
The best way to understand the market rhythm is to follow/read extensively about the 4h MACD system. The 5min system is just a shorter time frame that you can use to enter earlier - in the direction of the 4h rules.

I started with both systems but couldn't get the hang of the 4h MACD system because I concentrated on the indicators and not the market rhythm. So I decided to concentrate the 5min and after a while I've realised what is meant by market rhythm. Then I studied some price patterns and included it into my strategy to screen for high probability setups.

I am not trading the 4h MACD because I cannot be in front of my PC every 4h to evaluate the markets. And if you missed an entry, the next entry could be days away. With the 5min it is different - more setups, quicker trades and it suites my style.

Summary - it all depends on your style of trading but look at my signature (my triage for making a success in forex trading).

Enjoy the ride.

I hope it may assist somebody else as well.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #6,469
  • Mar 9, 2009 1:34pm Mar 9, 2009 1:34pm
Quoting Keus
Breakeven.
This was not an easy setup. Your analysis is correct. This is what I saw and I followed the setup but didn't enter (just didn't like the rhythm).

Support turned into resistance and possible entry points on the pullback towards the previous support area indicated by the black circles, The 4th circle I've missed because of other commitments but that was the pinbar trade for 10pips TP. When the big number is so close, I don't wait for the TC but I'll take a quick 10pips profit.
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #6,470
  • Mar 9, 2009 2:37pm Mar 9, 2009 2:37pm
This is what I like to see in the price movement - nice wave-like movements (forming a triangle as a bonus).
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #6,471
  • Mar 9, 2009 2:39pm Mar 9, 2009 2:39pm
Follow up advice given to fellow member:

My personal opinion is that the 4h MACD is easier to trade because time is not really a factor. You do have time to think about it/analise it properly. The rules are easy and straight forward. Lost of support on the thread as well - just read and read and post your charts and ask questions.

While you are waiting for the 4h to pass, you can study the 5min system. A bit more complicated, entries not so clear cut because you need to think about it but you don't really have the time to think about it. That is where many mistake are made. If I am not sure or if I do feel uncomfortable with the setup, Ill pass.

I'll post a trade that I did just a few minutes ago for 10pips profit - it took me about 30sec - 1min to make the decision to enter or not. And I just entered in time. I think that is why people are struggling and getting frustated with the 5min system. Too many signals and not all of them are tradeable. You need to be very careful which setups you take. Sitting in front of the PC waiting for the right setup can be very frustating. You need to be in the right frame of mind and it should be your style of trading. If it isn't you, go for the 4h system instead.

For both system, please remember to concentrate on the price movement (see my trade a few minutes ago) and only use the indicators as confirmation. DON"T TRADE THE INDICATORS.

Go for it.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #6,472
  • Mar 9, 2009 2:45pm Mar 9, 2009 2:45pm
Quoting Golfer
Summary - it all depends on your style of trading but look at my signature (my triage for making a success in forex trading).
I hope it may assist somebody else as well.
Great advice, Golfer!
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #6,473
  • Mar 9, 2009 2:55pm Mar 9, 2009 2:55pm
Quoting Dahlia
Another annoying day for me...
Emotions, emotions...

Quoting Dahlia
In my attempt at giving PBs another try, I didn't pick the highest quality trade.
This is an off-topic remark, but you cannot give a try to a strategy based on statistical advantage. I.e. taking 100 AAA+ trades with PBs and THEN failing would count as "giving it a try" 1-5 trades that didn't work out prove nothing.

The second part of your sentence above is pretty self-explanatory...

Quoting Dahlia
The PB bounced off the previous swing high and seemed to be pulling back into the channel, but I really should have waited to enter when price passed UNDER the PB (which it never did).
It was a good valid pin (as was the one that followed in 2 periods). The setup was good ("classic" way of trading pins is via its "break", but some traders enter via X% Fibo retracement of pin), the market was simply not ready to go down at that point - nothing you could have done about it, losses are the cost of doing business.

Quoting Dahlia
This loss is my fault, not the fault of the pin bar
The loss was nobody's fault (and it's NEVER the market's/price's/candle's fault!) - the trade simply didn't work out. Perhaps higher TFs could have given you some extra clues.

Quoting Dahlia
Is anyone benefiting from moving your SL to BE once the price hits a certain point?
It depends on how conservative you are and what your style is. As a (conservative) option you can exit 1/2 position at RR1, you are then in a "free trade" (i.e. if you SL is hit, you break even). Or you can exit 2/3 at RR1, and then you are in the money no matter what.

In my opinion, moving SL makes sense when you can move it to a logical place (based on PA). Moving it to BE after Xpips is an emotional decision.
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #6,474
  • Mar 9, 2009 3:57pm Mar 9, 2009 3:57pm
Quoting Dahlia
Trade 1 - In my attempt at giving PBs another try, . . . The PB bounced off the previous swing high and seemed to be pulling back into the channel, but I really should have waited to enter when price passed UNDER the PB (which it never did).
good afternoon dahlia:

would you mind giving me the specific time of that pin? i cant seem to find it on my GMT chart. thanks. any EST, CST, or PST will do.

thank you. im sending you a PM ...
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #6,475
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:06pm Mar 9, 2009 4:06pm
Quoting fxgrinder
would you mind giving me the specific time of that pin? i cant seem to find it on my GMT chart. thanks. any EST, CST, or PST will do.
nevermind i think i found it.

Quoting Dahlia
but I really should have waited to enter when price passed UNDER the PB (which it never did).
i agree w/ you on that point. rest in the PM. ... so as not to be rude re cross-contamination of course.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #6,476
  • Mar 9, 2009 4:14pm Mar 9, 2009 4:14pm
Quoting Forex007
Emotions, emotions...
Guilty

Quoting Forex007
The loss was nobody's fault (and it's NEVER the market's/price's/candle's fault!) - the trade simply didn't work out.
Yes, the market/price/candle is never wrong or right. It just IS. But what I meant to say (in a joking way) was that in this particular case, the loss probably had less to do with the effectiveness of pinbar strategies, and more to do with my lack of preparation and analysis.
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #6,477
  • Mar 10, 2009 6:33am Mar 10, 2009 6:33am
Quoting Golfer
This was not an easy setup. Your analysis is correct. This is what I saw and I followed the setup but didn't enter (just didn't like the rhythm).

Support turned into resistance and possible entry points on the pullback towards the previous support area indicated by the black circles, The 4th circle I've missed because of other commitments but that was the pinbar trade for 10pips TP. When the big number is so close, I don't wait for the TC but I'll take a quick 10pips profit.
Hi.
Thanks for the comment.
I have forgotten about the big number (1.26). I saw possibility to take 10 pips, but I hoped on greater movement. Because there was a big red candle without tails. In the future I will remember about the big number.
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I am learning English, but still cannot speak well.
  • #6,478
  • Mar 10, 2009 1:45pm Mar 10, 2009 1:45pm
Market today after 15 pm was very fast therefore I didn't wait for TC.
SL/TP was little different then normal - TP above nearest support from H4
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  • #6,479
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:25pm Mar 10, 2009 2:25pm
A quick 30pips profit - another system I am using confirmed the setup.

Look at your own chart (zoomed out) to see the bigger picture.
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #6,480
  • Mar 10, 2009 2:52pm Mar 10, 2009 2:52pm
Quoting ARtuRO
Market today after 15 pm was very fast therefore I didn't wait for TC.
SL/TP was little different then normal - TP above nearest support from H4
Great one - I hope you've seen the 3 little sisters on the previous pullback (21 not yet out of non-trade zone) which was also a nice smooth rounding.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
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