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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #941
  • Mar 7, 2009 11:41am Mar 7, 2009 11:41am
Quoting feb2865
Here's a chart form 3/5/2209
NFP Anouncement - a big mover across all markets.

A counter reaction on these moves are a very common pattern to follow.
What's up Feb?

I hope you don't mind me poking my nose in here, but seeing your chart makes me remember why I spent NFP Friday painting and not trading.

As you can see, the initial reaction to the NFP announcement was a fast surge up for the Euro. And then, it reverses.....it seems this is the pattern anymore. I cannot tell you how many of these days tend to end up right where they started lately. It's just not worth it for someone like me.

However, I have a two theories as to what's pushing this:

1 - Those spikes at the announcement? Those are home-gamers. Throwing the market around in illiquid times. Those are the amateurs behaving well, like amateurs. It takes less to push price up when there aren't the usual amount of sellers. (Think about that for a minute people.) This is what a spike essentially is. (Under most conditions.)

2 - I think we are starting to see a significant change in behavior. I think trading the news is really not in vogue like it was a few years ago, so it essentially ends in a stalemate these days.

Also, the U.S. Dollar is clearly a safe-haven currency these days. So bad numbers create a demand for the Dollar. (Think Treasuries) So the news traders are getting pissed off because "It's not doing what it should!"

Just a few thoughts your chart made me think of.

Feel free to remove this is I took things off-topic too much!

CW
  • #942
  • Mar 7, 2009 12:42pm Mar 7, 2009 12:42pm
Quoting clockwork71
What's up Feb?

I hope you don't mind me poking my nose in here, but seeing your chart makes me remember why I spent NFP Friday painting and not trading.

As you can see, the initial reaction to the NFP announcement was a fast surge up for the Euro. And then, it reverses.....it seems this is the pattern anymore. I cannot tell you how many of these days tend to end up right where they started lately. It's just not worth it for someone like me.

However, I have a two theories as to what's pushing this:

1 - Those spikes at the announcement? Those...
Not at all my friend. I awalys apreciate your comments.

You know, It's about time . I couldn't agree more. News trading is definitely fading out. Their nemesis: liquidity.

News reaction is factored across the board and I see a lot of artificial move, especially on the spot forex. Not only that, just try to get a fill for at least 25 contracts on ES @8:30 and you'll be surprised.

I wonder, in a counter move like this, how spot brokers can keep up with that? I mean, I am not an expert but trying to make a living off bid and ask must be difficult if the bank refuse to clear some of your deals at the end of the day?

I have some funds parked on the dollar since 12/19/2008. I am shooting for 1.23 - 1.21 area. Look the charts.
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Peace
  • #943
  • Mar 7, 2009 12:47pm Mar 7, 2009 12:47pm
Solid post.

Quoting feb2865
Tidion

The Federal reserve system as it is since 1913, It's designed to create an addictive debt-interest based society. There's nothing we can do. No president whatsoever will turn around this problem unless he take the bull by the horns. The american dream is not a house and a car like the 50's anymore, is the more you have, the better. Unfortunatley, this well-designed plan of the feds has made deep roots in american society. There's no turning back unless we take drastic measures.
  • #944
  • Mar 7, 2009 12:58pm Mar 7, 2009 12:58pm
Quoting tdion
Solid post.

Thank you my friend. I definitely agree with your thougts.
Peace
  • #945
  • Mar 7, 2009 1:07pm Mar 7, 2009 1:07pm
A word of caution.

I was expelled from high school on 10 grade. I was terrible at grammar (but very good on math) on elementary school. I literally went from be expelled to work in G.S storeroom, then my way up to be a floor trader. I sincerely apologize if my grammar is not up to be perfect, but this is how I am. Anyway, I trade since 1981 so who cares about grammar?? LOL.

I promise I'll always do the best I can. Also due my sickness, my hands feel crampy You might see some typos here and there.
Peace
  • #946
  • Mar 7, 2009 2:20pm Mar 7, 2009 2:20pm
a very interesting chart.

Note - everytime you see a failure, rest assured a level is created.

Failure = the move is out of gas - reversals - some people call them fractals, I don't know. I'm old school...sorry.

You get the idea.
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Peace
  • #947
  • Mar 7, 2009 2:20pm Mar 7, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting feb2865
Thank you my friend. I definitely agree with your thougts.

I know....I agree with him too. I think that has happened twice now in 3 years. It must be a sign of the Apocalypse.
  • #948
  • Mar 7, 2009 2:36pm Mar 7, 2009 2:36pm


Quoting clockwork71
I know....I agree with him too. I think that has happened twice now in 3 years. It must be a sign of the Apocalypse.
  • #949
  • Mar 7, 2009 2:52pm Mar 7, 2009 2:52pm
Many ways to skin the cat

stay put. I will load up more charts. I feel like teaching today LOL.
Peace
  • #950
  • Mar 7, 2009 3:00pm Mar 7, 2009 3:00pm
Stepping back a little, we had already mark two levels coming from London session - Level 1 and 2. These levels were formed from failures as I have marked with the arrows - the dotted vertical line is the begining of NY session.
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Peace
  • #951
  • Mar 7, 2009 3:21pm Mar 7, 2009 3:21pm
If you're a contrarian trader - yes I am talking to you, the one who likes to smoke a joint in the bleaches and making out with that skinny girl with black nails - the rebel with the pants hanging down his ass... You could go with something like:

"If the market reverses form x (a top line on the charts) then I will place my stop loss at the other side and I will shoot for the next level."

or


"If the market reverses form x (a top line on the charts) then I will place my stop loss at the other side and I will shoot for the next level, reducing 1/2 of the load at level 1 and liquidate my position at level 2"


N eed to be careful 'cause if your entry is at the end of the las bar, there's no much room to wiggle. So you need to be agressive and you migth get stopped out 1 or 2 times on the run.


But you're a contraian, who cares? Besides your risk is under control. You're prepared for that.....rigth?

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Peace
  • #952
  • Mar 7, 2009 3:35pm Mar 7, 2009 3:35pm
Oh yeah you, with the spiderman lunch box and spongebob underwear - the one who tries to kiss a girl with his lips closed. the "trend trader on lower time frames" (ha).

yeah you.....wait for the level 1 to be broken. You migth wait for a pullback and then go ride the wave all the way to level 2. Stop loss at the other side of the fence of course.
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Peace
  • #953
  • Mar 7, 2009 3:53pm Mar 7, 2009 3:53pm
oh yeah, how could I forget...the bully.

The boy who weigths 250 LB and heigths 4 feet . He's always sweaty even when sleeping. He's a bully 'cause he will roll over you in order to steal your lunch money.

The bully has a strict risk control. Better than anyone else. He knows that he can get away with anything as long as his risk is in check.

The bully is a contrarian and a breakout trader. He won't care, As long as he spots an opportunity (and risk permits), he'll be there.
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Peace
  • #954
  • Mar 7, 2009 8:21pm Mar 7, 2009 8:21pm
Quoting feb2865
oh yeah, how could I forget...the bully.

The boy who weigths 250 LB and heigths 4 feet . He's always sweaty even when sleeping. He's a bully 'cause he will roll over you in order to steal your lunch money.

The bully has a strict risk control. Better than anyone else. He knows that he can get away with anything as long as his risk is in check.

The bully is a contrarian and a breakout trader. He won't care, As long as he spots an opportunity (and risk permits), he'll be there.

Hello Feb, how are you doing

I love the way you connect the personalities and the trading style.

I have a question off the topic;

I understand you prefer simple price levels to any indicators /models.
What is your take on the oscillator type calculations /overbought oversold scenarios and divergence etc., which you don't normally see with plain price levels.

Cheers

TS
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #955
  • Mar 7, 2009 9:22pm Mar 7, 2009 9:22pm
Quoting TradeStar
Hello Feb, how are you doing

I love the way you connect the personalities and the trading style.

I have a question off the topic;

I understand you prefer simple price levels to any indicators /models.
What is your take on the oscillator type calculations /overbought oversold scenarios and divergence etc., which you don't normally see with plain price levels.

Cheers

TS
I like to follow the crowd. I know for a fact levels are watched by many traders and institutions. About overbougth/oversold/divergences etc. It all depends on who is considering overbougth and oversold at any particular moment in time. I just tried them all and I found out they could be deceiving. Because it works sometimes doesn't mean the whole market is reacting everytime an oscillator indicates overbougth/oversold.

I have to give some credit to RSI when it crosess the 50 line. Combined with price could be useful.

About indicators: I have a friend of mine who uses some sort of moving averages and he trades when the markets pulls off them. I should say he's very succesful.

I assure you, I have tested all kinds of combinations available and I simply can't make them work. I haven't found any indicators that keeps my equity line in a healthy shape. They all started going strong and when the market shifts, I get in trouble on my bottom line.

But if you ever get a kick out of them, more power to ya!
Peace
  • #956
  • Mar 7, 2009 9:31pm Mar 7, 2009 9:31pm
Quoting TradeStar
Hello Feb, how are you doing

I love the way you connect the personalities and the trading style.

I have a question off the topic;

I understand you prefer simple price levels to any indicators /models.
What is your take on the oscillator type calculations /overbought oversold scenarios and divergence etc., which you don't normally see with plain price levels.

Cheers

TS

Just remember one thing - you need to go with whatever keeps your bottom line going up. If you're trading live, you have no time to "experiment" with this and that. You need to be sure of your trading otherwise your funds will be slowly and painfully bleeding out.

word to the wise.
Peace
  • #957
  • Mar 8, 2009 5:11am Mar 8, 2009 5:11am
Quoting feb2865
Just remember one thing - you need to go with whatever keeps your bottom line going up. If you're trading live, you have no time to "experiment" with this and that. You need to be sure of your trading otherwise your funds will be slowly and painfully bleeding out.

word to the wise.
Thanks for your response. I am not big on indicators either.

I always enjoy your posts. PL. keep them coming..


TS
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #958
  • Mar 8, 2009 5:15am Mar 8, 2009 5:15am
Quoting feb2865
Just remember one thing - you need to go with whatever keeps your bottom line going up. If you're trading live, you have no time to "experiment" with this and that. You need to be sure of your trading otherwise your funds will be slowly and painfully bleeding out.

word to the wise.

BTW, Belated B'Day wishes, Feb (assuming my interpretation of your user name is correct ).

TS
Haste not to Enter AND Haste not to Exit !-TradeStar
  • #959
  • Mar 8, 2009 6:29am Mar 8, 2009 6:29am
Quoting feb2865
If you're a contrarian trader - yes I am talking to you, the one who likes to smoke a joint in the bleaches and making out with that skinny girl with black nails - the rebel with the pants hanging down his ass... You could go with something like:

"If the market reverses form x (a top line on the charts) then I will place my stop loss at the other side and I will shoot for the next level."

or


[left]"If the market reverses form x (a top line on the charts) then I will place my stop loss at the other side and I will shoot...
Hi Feb2865 - nice thread - naked and using levels, right up my street...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I use the sweet spots indy and so always have the 50s and 100s and now also the 25s up on my short TF charts. I also view them as a band of support / resistance, here 10 pips wide...so the white lines that you have drawn were already there and IMO being watched by quite a lot of traders.

I now just watch the PA around these levels - just check out how many times they get used...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

ALso, I'm in total agreement on news trading - a couple of years ago I used to "trade the spike" with a group of other traders and we did well - then the brokers started requoting, opening the spreads etc etc and that killed it.

Regards

Islander
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Trading Levels with WRBs
  • #960
  • Mar 8, 2009 8:33am Mar 8, 2009 8:33am
Quoting Islander
Hi Feb2865 - nice thread - naked and using levels, right up my street...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon7.gif

I use the sweet spots indy and so always have the 50s and 100s and now also the 25s up on my short TF charts. I also view them as a band of support / resistance, here 10 pips wide...so the white lines that you have drawn were already there and IMO being watched by quite a lot of traders.

I now just watch the PA around these levels - just check out how many times they get used...http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif...

Watching PA around the levels - that's a true definition of price action.

As I mentioned in one of my post - you just need a couple of horizontal lines to trade. You know, I prefer to know what I'm doing instead of relying on and indicator with an on/off switch.

Islander, this is a solid post. Please come around at anytime and give us your thoughts.
Peace
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