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A possible wave count

  • #1
  • First Post: Mar 30, 2007 9:59am Mar 30, 2007 9:59am
Though intraday trading is my main concern, still sometimes it is hard for me to resist the temptation to count the waves.

On the attached chart, the uncertain corrective b(?) is still not sure enough, cause it may proved to be a running correction ending somewhere @3000?
Otherwise, the picture is clear for me a new high is on its way.

Any comments is welcomed.
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  • #2
  • Mar 30, 2007 10:13am Mar 30, 2007 10:13am
Finally someone has similar longterm count on EUR/USD lol. Yeah, it's probably in a huge wave B with A-B-C inside (from 1.16+). Your wave A and B are same with mine, just that for wave C starting from 1.2484 on oct 2006, I put a 5-wave sequence there. Maybe yours is the correct one tho.
Tra-X
  • #3
  • Mar 30, 2007 10:18am Mar 30, 2007 10:18am
Quoting Traex
just that for wave C starting from 1.2484 on oct 2006, I put a 5-wave sequence there. Maybe yours is the correct one tho.
First we all agree that it is still a corrective wave B. So the space is compressed in a way (and the time scale), so I prefer it to be a simple C. And it is yet to be a running correction (with a new high).

Let the market show its result.
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  • #4
  • Apr 1, 2007 5:08am Apr 1, 2007 5:08am
Quoting Samuri
First we all agree that it is still a corrective wave B. So the space is compressed in a way (and the time scale), so I prefer it to be a simple C. And it is yet to be a running correction (with a new high).

Let the market show its result.
A correction pattern falls into four main categories: a zigzag, a flat, a triangle a double 3 or a triple 3. The most common type of correction is a a zigzag. A correction can also occur in the form of an irregular flat or failed topping pattern. An irregular flat occurs when C is 2/3rds of the distance of A, and occurs in very bullish markets. A running correction occurs when C fails to take out A, and when B overshoots a number. For example a wave 3 has been put in and then you go to A and B is higher than 3 and C is lower than A.

Here is a good overview of Elliott Wave theory. At the bottom of the page is a description of the running correction, for those who aren't familiar with this term:

http://www.ad-financial.com/principles.php
  • #5
  • Apr 3, 2007 10:01am Apr 3, 2007 10:01am
But where?
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  • #6
  • Apr 22, 2007 8:25am Apr 22, 2007 8:25am
My projection shows two possible top. 3753, 3818.

Will be eager to see a final result. But time is coming closer and closer...
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  • #7
  • Apr 22, 2007 8:31am Apr 22, 2007 8:31am
Quoting Samuri
My projection shows two possible top. 3753, 3818.

Will be eager to see a final result. But time is coming closer and closer...
Shorter term count says it's not completed yet. But imho your targets above are logical (forex isn't logical ). It has hit the rising trendline from 1.2974 top to 1.3369 top and then 2 days ago.
Tra-X
  • #8
  • Edited 8:37am Apr 22, 2007 8:35am | Edited 8:37am
Quoting Samuri
But where?
My projection on this pair is the downward correction will end around 6106.

Still need some more patience lol.
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  • #9
  • Apr 22, 2007 8:43am Apr 22, 2007 8:43am
Quoting Traex
Shorter term count says it's not completed yet. But imho your targets above are logical (forex isn't logical ). It has hit the rising trendline from 1.2974 top to 1.3369 top and then 2 days ago.
Speculation is speculation. I never try to profit from my beloved long term wave counts. Look at the frequency you will understand what I mean.;-)

But sometimes, I do find the market extends its beauty right in front of my face. Let's don't take the exact numbers so seriously, and show our respect to a hidden rule out there.
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  • #10
  • Jun 13, 2007 3:07am Jun 13, 2007 3:07am
Review
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  • #11
  • Jun 15, 2007 1:20am Jun 15, 2007 1:20am
Maybe a short-term relax for the bulls, in case the 3 holds same level with 1 and 2, and the neckline breaks.
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  • #12
  • Jun 15, 2007 1:39am Jun 15, 2007 1:39am
Another possibility is shown below.

Which one you prefer?
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  • #13
  • Jun 15, 2007 6:11am Jun 15, 2007 6:11am
I know I am so gonna get flamed for this but... wave counting is such a load of horse waste - looks fantastic in hindsight, but useless in the right edge of the chart.
  • #14
  • Jun 15, 2007 1:13pm Jun 15, 2007 1:13pm
Quoting WTB
I know I am so gonna get flamed for this but... wave counting is such a load of horse waste - looks fantastic in hindsight, but useless in the right edge of the chart.
It depends on how good you use your knowledge and tool.
Plan your strategy, and trade your plan(s).

Have a nice weekend.
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  • #15
  • Jun 15, 2007 10:11pm Jun 15, 2007 10:11pm
Great thread & awesome charts guys!!!

Just a quick tip: Put the Awesome Oscillator on the chart - you will notice that wave 3 of the impulse wave is more often than not the largest signal on the AO. Some EW pros look for this & then overlay their wave count over top of it (making it fit with this in mind)... it works most of the time!!!

The AO is also a fantastic tool for signifying the end of wave 5 - look for price to be in the target range for wave 5, and divergence on the AO...

Take care & good luck in your trades,

D.
  • #16
  • Jun 16, 2007 11:21am Jun 16, 2007 11:21am
Hi guys ...........
Eur/Usd
Here's a LONG TERM Wave-Count

-----------------------
--------------------------------------------
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  • #17
  • Jun 17, 2007 11:13am Jun 17, 2007 11:13am
Quoting marketwavez
Hi guys ...........
Eur/Usd
Here's a LONG TERM Wave-Count
--------------------------------------------
The main difference between our wave count is the 1.36xx - 1.16xx drop.
You mark it as wave 4, while for me I'd rather take it as a first correction wave A belongs to an ABC correction. Main reason is it is clearly composed of a 5-wave, hence could not be a wave 4 alone in any scale.

On the other hand, I never try to precisely recognize the full wave count in such a big time scale. I still believe the market can go any where it wants, so in such a scale, no strategy is attractive to me anymore.
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  • #18
  • Jun 17, 2007 11:22am Jun 17, 2007 11:22am
Quoting Daemien
Great thread & awesome charts guys!!!

Just a quick tip: Put the Awesome Oscillator on the chart - you will notice that wave 3 of the impulse wave is more often than not the largest signal on the AO. Some EW pros look for this & then overlay their wave count over top of it (making it fit with this in mind)... it works most of the time!!!

The AO is also a fantastic tool for signifying the end of wave 5 - look for price to be in the target range for wave 5, and divergence on the AO...

Take care & good luck in your trades,

D.
Thanks for the tip;=)
I did try using indicators in the past to help to identify wave counts, and still I think it is a good point to think about. But as you know, it took me quite some effort to discard all indicators off my chart, and I am doing well in the new naked way, so though of bit tempetation, I insist now to stay away from the indicators. Maybe others will find it helpful.

Anyway, it seems to be as always that thousand people will have a thousand wave counts, it is not that you count it right alone will help you profit, it is still part of the secret.

Cheers.
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  • #19
  • Jun 17, 2007 11:41am Jun 17, 2007 11:41am
Quoting Samuri
Thanks for the tip;=)
I did try using indicators in the past to help to identify wave counts, and still I think it is a good point to think about. But as you know, it took me quite some effort to discard all indicators off my chart, and I am doing well in the new naked way, so though of bit tempetation, I insist now to stay away from the indicators. Maybe others will find it helpful.

Anyway, it seems to be as always that thousand people will have a thousand wave counts, it is not that you count it right alone will help you profit, it is still part of the secret.

Cheers.
Totally agree here.
Tra-X
  • #20
  • Jul 6, 2007 6:50pm Jul 6, 2007 6:50pm
Used to count the 3660 - 1630 downward leg from Dec. 04 - Nov. 05 as a correction wave A (with a 5 wave structure). Then the upward bullish rise so far is somewhat restrained at 3600-3700 level.

In this renewed view, the upward space is open, while the downside possible dips is lifted up a lot (2800+).

Man! This counting is definitely a nightmare for the dollar bulls in the bigger timeframe!

God bless!
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