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The System II (Yes with irony)

  • #901
  • Feb 7, 2009 2:46pm Feb 7, 2009 2:46pm
Quoting stevecartwright
I am pleased to see I wasn't run out of the forum for my views :-)

The only thing I would say about 50% retracement from my observations is that with the theory, yes theory, of higher highs/lows and reverse is that with a long trend the previous low shouldn't be violated, obviousle the previous high for shorts....
My problem with Bollinger bands is exactly that theory of the price enclosed within the bands. Ultimately, the market won't care about that and will expand these bands to death. But, that's my problem, it's subjective. I simply don't like the way the market contracts -expands the bands. Many times will caught you off guard and I like to have control over my position at all times.

My humble advice: Be a master of 1 time frame. Don't need to be crossed-eye looking at various time frames.

Screw the trend - trade what you see. Have control over your trade and don't let the market screw your account.

Steve, I suggest to open up a trading journal. That way you'll have dedicated followers (I will check it out as time permits) and collectively you'll have inputs from different sources. Also if you have notice, people on this thread are precisely pulling away form math-based indi's.

Please don't think that I am throwing you off this thread. Just that in respect of indicator-free people on this thread, I would like to keep the integrity of it in check.

Thanks and good karma to you my buddy!!!
Peace
  • #902
  • Feb 8, 2009 4:03am Feb 8, 2009 4:03am
No problem with any of that. as has been said many time one must do what one must do. There is an interesting book called "Swing Trading" by Marc Rivalland which has many of the tenets you propose and which at the time I thought was a great read. No indicators by the way. I didn't follow through with it because at that time I hadn't found FX and he only used it daily on the FTSE. I don't get any commission and he is not a relative etc etc.
Dow theory fits in here with the h/h h/l etc and a view on when the trend has changed. Its not heavy and I would say reasonably good.

One observation to add is going back to teh depth of retracement. I see that if there are only a few, probably 3 max 4, retarcement candles then the subsequent break is usually a good one. This is in line with your shallow idea, no not shallow thinking, but shallow retarcement :-)




Quoting feb2865
My problem with Bollinger bands is exactly that theory of the price enclosed within the bands. Ultimately, the market won't care about that and will expand these bands to death. But, that's my problem, it's subjective. I simply don't like the way the market contracts -expands the bands. Many times will caught you off guard and I like to have control over my position at all times.

My humble advice: Be a master of 1 time frame. Don't need to be crossed-eye looking at various time frames.

Screw the trend - trade what you see. Have control over...
  • #903
  • Feb 12, 2009 2:06pm Feb 12, 2009 2:06pm
I had a nice reading for a couple of last days, thank you Feb for the thread and your work. What strikes is that you are an experienced trader, and all you say is simple, but so important.
I also trade 5 min., but a bit differently, but swing trading has always been very important for me.

Take care of yourself, you are very strong man .
  • #904
  • Feb 16, 2009 12:31pm Feb 16, 2009 12:31pm
NEW ON THE FORUM, GOOD SYSTEM, TODAY PROFIT USING SYSTEM 2 = 40 PIPS!

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/8324/63986300ui5.jpg

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/7774/89244041hu0.jpg
  • #905
  • Feb 17, 2009 3:50pm Feb 17, 2009 3:50pm
My friends.

I've been talking with some of my old school friends this past couple of days about the current economic situation. Although we're technical traders in essence, I've been always an advocate of keeping one ear on the ground.

I'ts hard to say but the future looks grim. I have never experienced such a solace and frustration, sadness and discouragement among traders, even the sassy one's.

I've been talking to people from all over and the sentiment is the same.

Don't put any high hopes on the stimulus package - the market already expresed (today) it's opinion.

I sincerely wish with all my heart I can keep on showing new stuff, unfortunately ALL markets are getting dried by the second.

I am personally worried not just on our domestic situation, but the worldwide economy as a whole. As opposed to the recesion on 1929, nowadays many countries have the dollar as a reserve-counterpart to their currencies. I cannot imagine what will happen if United States collapses.

Makes me think on how the Roman Empire after 800 years, collapsed due a huge economic failure.

I humbly apologize to take you guys out of the thread subject, but I needed to express my feelings. I hope I can reveiw back this post later down the road and simply laugh.

As for now, we just have to sit and wait.

You can count with my advice and support, alaways.

Good Karma.
Peace
  • #906
  • Feb 18, 2009 4:22am Feb 18, 2009 4:22am
Hi FEB & Everyone,

I agree with you 100%. Not to sound all GROOM & DOOM, but over the last yr there has been some changes taking place in the U.S. & all over the world that have the makings of 1929 (or worse) all over again.

The stimulus package should be called a spending bill & nothing more. The markets have made it clear how they are viewing it. We"ll see in a yr from now how it plays out.

From converstions I have had recently with friends in the banking sector, it will be business as usual very soon. More loans available for those that will most likely never be able to complete the payment cycle.

When you try a business plan & it fails, don't give up, but DON'T keep trying the same old methods that are failing. Retool & try an new method.
Not the case as we again are going back to the old failing methods.

I don't have all the answers, but the same old cycle is staring over with the same old players is only destine to FAIL AGAIN.

If the United State collapses, other countries will follow.

When Dorothy & friends followed the Yellow Brick Road to the Land Of OZ the Wizard was a sure let down & that seems to be the road we are traveling now. The man behind the curtain has not all the answers.

Keeping our ears to the ground as FEB said & staying focused in the days ahead is about all we can do. I am trading less than this time a yr ago & certainly more cautiously.

FEB thanks for your respected views & WE look forward to more from you in the times ahead.

Good Trades To All.
______________________
  • #907
  • Feb 21, 2009 6:49pm Feb 21, 2009 6:49pm
Now I will quietly say that America has one problem.... one poison in its blood.....

CREDIT!

People living beyond their means is more than a reality - it is a mentaility! And I don't know a way to cure it. Please, if you do nothing else, pay off your car and stop living beyond your means.

I am very sad over this.... after the bloodshed of Americans fighting for WHAT? I bunch of idiots trying to keep up with the Jones.

Quoting feb2865
I've been talking to people from all over and the sentiment is the same.

Don't put any high hopes on the stimulus package - the market already expresed (today) it's opinion.

I sincerely wish with all my heart I can keep on showing new stuff, unfortunately ALL markets are getting dried by the second.

I am personally worried not just on our domestic situation, but the worldwide economy as a whole. As opposed to the recesion on 1929, nowadays many countries have the dollar as a reserve-counterpart to their currencies. I cannot imagine what...
  • #908
  • Feb 21, 2009 8:16pm Feb 21, 2009 8:16pm
tdion,

Outstanding & I am in full agreement. Its a killer of the U. S. economy & its people. Too easy to obtain & too hard for most to repay.
  • #909
  • Feb 21, 2009 9:52pm Feb 21, 2009 9:52pm
You ask, "Why don't people live within their means?"

If you live within your means...you ain't Livin"

Agreed, current generation has forgotten how to save for a purchase, if not in full, at least for a good down payment. Past lending practices have spurred this environment.

Like the markets, this must correct itself, and it will. Lessons will be painful to all, but over time supply and demand for housing, products will stabilise and resume as cars, washers, refrigerators ect... need to be replaced.

Hopefully next go around, we will have learned our lessons.

The Government throwing huge piles money at the problem does not fix the underlying cause, but it does help buy votes for reelection

fwiw.
  • #910
  • Feb 22, 2009 5:52am Feb 22, 2009 5:52am
Auxesis,

You have raised some Very Valid Points. Its this generation that has not learned to save for even the basic needs in life. Credit is the easy way to purchase items & even during these times the cards are still being offered to almost anyone who desires to obtain one. Banks (run by the goverment) will soon be full steam ahead financing homes for those that will be unable to complete the payment cycle. More of the same failed programs.

The Markets & Not The Goverment Will Always Self Correct.

Your last line is the most compelling of all & the very reason goverment is getting involved to the extent it has. Buying the votes is the ultimate goal of the elected officals, along with retaining their power & perks.

We can only hope the people of every country will wise up & see the picture as it really is thereby replacing these self serving officals @ election time.

FEB, excuse the off topic rants, but the topics are of valid concern.

Good Trades To All In The Week Ahead.
__________________________
  • #911
  • Feb 22, 2009 10:27am Feb 22, 2009 10:27am
Hi Guys

Is the chat site still active in Trading Rooms.com? If so, I'd love to participate. Thanks

Peter
  • #912
  • Feb 22, 2009 3:05pm Feb 22, 2009 3:05pm
Quoting petera
Hi Guys

Is the chat site still active in Trading Rooms.com? If so, I'd love to participate. Thanks

Peter
Hi Peter,

No Trading rooms.com doesn't exist any more. If you like this style try the 5minute wave thread. Much the same trading style and it has a chat room were you can learn more and follow trades.
  • #913
  • Feb 22, 2009 6:46pm Feb 22, 2009 6:46pm
Guys.

Some of you have your eyes open already on what trading is, and what is not. The most important lesson of all is not to stay ignorant like millions of people and have an enlightened life based on rational knowledge.
The same applies to the whole economy issue. I don't want to sound pessimistic but me and many of my friends are worried about what we have accumulated thru years. The dollar is heading to be crushed like puree. Gold and metals overall is not a viable longer vehicle to park cash. Not to mention real state,maybe commercial rental have a positive outlook.

It's so sad to hear so many 401k's getting shrinked sometimes down to 50%. The saddest part is there's nowhere to run. All thanks to the federal reserve and it's unfair interest policy.

On any way you decide to trade, make sure about your broker. Minimize risk. Lower your load and expectations. Hopefully we will get better, although I sincerely don't see how.

Unless the government deal with the biggest white elephant on the room called the federal reserve and all that it represents, I don't see this changing for the good.

People are attracted to the market with high expectations. There's an influx of people coming to the market like seagulls. Unfortunately,as I said before, liquidity is running out, in all markets. Would be interesting to see how their fate evolves.

But you have an advantage - knowledge. Keep your head straight and fly low. Don't expect to make fortunes on a market that's going very slim. Play this game smart. Just keep your head above the water.

Keep your focus on surviving. Let's see if capitalism will save us again.(Irony Included)
Peace
  • #914
  • Mar 5, 2009 10:57pm Mar 5, 2009 10:57pm
Quoting feb2865
Guys.

Some of you have your eyes open already on what trading is, and what is not. The most important lesson of all is not to stay ignorant like millions of people and have an enlightened life based on rational knowledge.
The same applies to the whole economy issue. I don't want to sound pessimistic but me and many of my friends are worried about what we have accumulated thru years. The dollar is heading to be crushed like puree. Gold and metals overall is not a viable longer vehicle to park cash. Not to mention real state,maybe commercial rental...
Hi, Feb:

Long time no see. How are you? Wish you have a good health.

DJIA dropped lower than 7,000. It reminds me one and half years ago I asked you if DJIA could drop to 10,000. Things are worsen than I expected.

Well, I am more optimistic about Ameircan situation now. The US is still the best and will remain the best in a long long future. Not because it has the biggest economy, most powerful military, most political influence, it is because US has the best system, political system and economic system, or in one word, the best social system. That system enables the most sophiticated science and technology, most creative commercial enterprises, and the most culture influence.

Unless some crazy leaders like Adof Hitler they may ruin US. But it is absolutely not possible in US since its political system and values gurranttee that will never happen.

Examples: in IT industry, all the core technology are from US like CPU, software, routers, internet, mobile telecom(the basic patents all from Qualcomm), chips. Macdonalds and cocacola all over the world. Hollywood movies played in every country. Blue jeans are worn by all the young men in the world. And each year at least the half Noble awards give to American scientists.

But I do agree that Americans need save more, and don't spend the money they haven't earned yet on credit cards.

Wish you good in Bull year every thing starts to be bullish.
  • #915
  • Edited 5:17am Mar 6, 2009 12:35am | Edited 5:17am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, Feb:
~~US has the best system, political system and economic system, ~~
Edited: Your kidding. If you had been a little less modest and said "some of the better" you may have had a slim chance of getting away with it, but ..
Good Trading
  • #916
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:08am Mar 6, 2009 8:08am
Quoting Green_David
Hi, Feb:

Long time no see. How are you? Wish you have a good health.

DJIA dropped lower than 7,000. It reminds me one and half years ago I asked you if DJIA could drop to 10,000. Things are worsen than I expected.

Well, I am more optimistic about Ameircan situation now. The US is still the best and will remain the best in a long long future. Not because it has the biggest economy, most powerful military, most political influence, it is because US has the best system, political system and economic system, or in one word, the best social system....
Hey David, my dear friend.

We're passing thru down times. That's for sure. I agree with you, actually if I migth add, many countries in the world peg the dollar to their currencies. The doallr is king that's why the rest of the world is looking at United States with real worry more than anything else.
Peace
  • #917
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:23am Mar 6, 2009 8:23am
Guys.

Going back to the "system" - This is just another way to look at support and resistance.

Trading has different meanings to different people. In trading, there's not a single pair of eyes but many looking at the same reaction. Some people think support and resistance, some others see MACD'S some other moving averages etc.

I am agressive trader. My job is to spot the move and be the first in line before anyone else. I have control over my risk on all my trades so I know how much I'll have on the line at any particular moment.

Support and resistance is the only "system" that works for me. This is very subjective and I wanted to share with you guys.

Support and resisntace is not a perfect science, but many eyes are looking at those levels. Actually I don't follow the "etiquette" of comfirmimg support and resistance (the market has to "test" a particular price many times to be valid) no way. As for me, just a simple price rejection make me curious.

I am going to post some charts in my next post I will go a little deep in some stuff...fair enough?
Peace
  • #918
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:35am Mar 6, 2009 8:35am
Here's a chart with some examples of price rejection.

Think on areas, not price.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: today.gif Size: 30 KB
Peace
  • #919
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:43am Mar 6, 2009 8:43am
Let's make this a trading "system"
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: today2.gif Size: 31 KB
Peace
  • #920
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:58am Mar 6, 2009 8:58am
oh yeah baby...here's a move failure or "false breakout"

just look at the charts and tell me what to do.

If you put a whole 2% in one trade, here's how you get screwed up.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: today3.gif Size: 31 KB
Peace
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