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5Min Intraday System

  • #6,441
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:21am Mar 5, 2009 3:21am
Quoting Morelands
B,
I was looking over your trade and I was not sure whether you noticed the previous resistance/now support line of your trade. Nice trade
yes,look at the below pic.
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  • #6,442
  • Mar 5, 2009 8:46am Mar 5, 2009 8:46am
Is anybody else getting ridiculous spreads right now? I'm on Oanda, which usually have good spread. But for the last 10 minutes, my spreads are weird:

EU: 5 pips (normally about .9 pips)
EY: 9 pips (vs 2.5-3 pips)
GU: 6 pips (vs ~3)
UJ: 8 pips! (vs ~2 pips)

What's going on? There's no news out or anything... My other broker (MBT) is showing widened spread as well...

Hands off the keyboard for me.

Anyone else getting this?
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #6,443
  • Mar 5, 2009 8:59am Mar 5, 2009 8:59am
Quoting Dahlia
Is anybody else getting ridiculous spreads right now? I'm on Oanda, which usually have good spread. But for the last 10 minutes, my spreads are weird...
Got some answers from the Oanda board:

Quoting Oanda techie

The EBS system appears to be suffering an outage. All Liquidity providers have widened their spreads as the issue gets resolved.
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #6,444
  • Mar 5, 2009 9:42am Mar 5, 2009 9:42am
I the midst of all the bad spreads I did get a trade off for 15 pips.
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  • #6,445
  • Mar 5, 2009 11:31am Mar 5, 2009 11:31am
Well, here are my 2 embarrassing trades for the day. It's embarrassing, not because I'm down for the day, but because they were simply bad trades (the small win on the GU does not make it a good trade). I saw the warning signs for both trades, but I decided to ignore them and entered anyways. I didn't miss the warning signs. I saw them. BEFORE I pushed the button.

The good news: I'm getting much better in my analyses, and knowing the difference between a high-probability trade and a low-probability one.

The bad news: I still don't have the discipline to act accordingly.

The really good news: There maybe no end to the journey of finding a good strategy. However, discipline is 100% within my control. And I'm determined to make it so. Soon.
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Money missed is better than money lost
  • #6,446
  • Edited 11:54am Mar 5, 2009 11:36am | Edited 11:54am
same one here make many white this sys evry day day in day out?

just curios :-D

buy the way if it work.....can it use on the 1m? and what abut other pairs?
  • #6,447
  • Mar 6, 2009 3:19am Mar 6, 2009 3:19am
.
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  • #6,448
  • Mar 6, 2009 3:26am Mar 6, 2009 3:26am
Quoting Dahlia
Well, here are my 2 embarrassing trades for the day. It's embarrassing, not because I'm down for the day, but because they were simply bad trades.
Don't be too hard on yourself. 99% traders out there are sure they are always right. Now, THAT is bad!

You are going (nicely) through the experience acquiring process, you cannot expect to get it right from even the 3rd attempt. J16 (the "owner" of J16 thread) blew several (6-fugure) accounts before he even realised that he is doing smth wrong...
One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #6,449
  • Mar 6, 2009 3:28am Mar 6, 2009 3:28am
Quoting bshadroo
.
The price was ranging, deciding whether to continue the upward movement (note MAs position), or to start a correction downwards.

It's best to wait for the market to make up its mind in such tight ranges.
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One Chart is Worth Ten Thousand Words.
  • #6,450
  • Mar 6, 2009 8:03am Mar 6, 2009 8:03am
Quoting Forex007
Don't be too hard on yourself.... You are going (nicely) through the experience acquiring process, you cannot expect to get it right from even the 3rd attempt. J16 (the "owner" of J16 thread) blew several (6-fugure) accounts before he even realised that he is doing smth wrong...
Thanks for the words of encouragement. Nice to know I'm not alone and that perhaps I might be doing something right

Speaking of getting it right, I think I'll take this NFP Friday off from trading and do some more chart studies...

Good trading everyone!

Dahlia
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #6,451
  • Mar 6, 2009 11:55am Mar 6, 2009 11:55am
Seemed to me like a good shorting oportunity, luckily I broke even at 3rd bar after entry. what do you guys think?
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  • #6,452
  • Edited 12:43pm Mar 6, 2009 12:21pm | Edited 12:43pm
Quoting judith
Seemed to me like a good shorting oportunity, luckily I broke even at 3rd bar after entry. what do you guys think?
Looks good to me. However, I notice that set ups are much more likely to fail after 11:30 am EST, especially on a Friday (everyone except the US already took off for the weekend). One of my rules is to stop trading after 11:30 am EST. Maybe even ealier than that on Fridays...

I would definitely have taken that same set up during other high volume hours.
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #6,453
  • Mar 6, 2009 1:36pm Mar 6, 2009 1:36pm
Quoting Dahlia
Looks good to me. However, I notice that set ups are much more likely to fail after 11:30 am EST, especially on a Friday (everyone except the US already took off for the weekend). One of my rules is to stop trading after 11:30 am EST. Maybe even ealier than that on Fridays...

I would definitely have taken that same set up during other high volume hours.
You know, I was about to edit my previous post saying that I was thinking the same thing, that it was to late for a friday. though from what i have seen when trading Mon-Thu, sometimes we can get good setups when Dow is closing( 3-4pm EST). definetly no trading after that.
  • #6,454
  • Mar 6, 2009 1:41pm Mar 6, 2009 1:41pm
Quoting judith
Seemed to me like a good shorting oportunity, luckily I broke even at 3rd bar after entry. what do you guys think?
I also took if but ended with 1pip profit.

Also look at the 3 little sisters formation - 3rd bounced off the 50MA, risky but nice.
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Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #6,455
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:43pm Mar 6, 2009 4:43pm
Quoting judith
Seemed to me like a good shorting oportunity, luckily I broke even at 3rd bar after entry. what do you guys think?
I definitely would have taken it. I saw that on the charts prior to your post and I knew that if I was at the computer I would have been in. You should be proud of yourself for getting out with BE. However, be very careful late on a Fri, if it doesn't go your way quickly, get out.
Raymond
  • #6,456
  • Edited Mar 8, 2009 11:09pm Mar 7, 2009 11:26pm | Edited Mar 8, 2009 11:09pm
Hmmm... What an interesting turn of events...

Lately, I've been using pin bars as one of my entry set ups for Phillip's 5m system because it's one of the most prominent set ups in the James16 thread. Plus, it appears to be one of the more popular signals I've heard of.

However, I finally did some back tests on pin bar set ups for this system this weekend, and I was quite surprised at my findings: Even with impeccable filters (higher lows, lower highs, news, proper market rhythm & speed, holidays, the length of the "nose", etc...), pinbars trades actually resulted in a net LOSS. That's with a 1:1 RR ratio. I tried all combinations of filters, and NONE resulted in a net win. At best, you break even, before spread. I had planned on doing the study for the entire year of 2008, however, the results from the first 6 months was enough to convince me.

Just wondering if anybody else had done back tests on the pinbar for this system, or if this set up has been consistently profitable during live trading for anyone here on the 5 minute timeframe. I hear conflicting findings on the James16 thread: One trader (Ryanmcd?) said that he trades pinbars on the 5 min timeframe as his main strategy. However, several other members there did studies of pin bars on lower timeframes, and found them to be unreliable under the 4hr timeframe.

So I did my own testing. And it's enough to convince me NOT to use them anymore for this system.
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #6,457
  • Mar 8, 2009 12:38am Mar 8, 2009 12:38am
i also have done my own analysis for pin bars, but i found the results were much different when i forward tested versus back-tested. for instance, when i back-tested, i didn't have the where-with-all to also cross-reference w/ news releases. here's what i figured out in that regard via live price action. lots of pin bars show up right before a news release. then, after the market screwed around after the release, it resumed course before the market bailed on the respective positions before the release. i realized this was seriously skewing my back-testing results.

i use pins to trade from too and like you, also intraday. at the close of my trading week, i always review all of my trades and the price action for the week in general (whether i traded signals or not) b/c it is fresh in my mind. for a while, my primary focus were these pin bars. anyway, what i found is that under normal conditions (no news) and when i stick to my trading plan (taking them only w/ a confirming set-up), they have a better than average success ... i.e., it was typically operator error that goofed them up.

i have much more in the way of "unsubstantiated" observations about pins and other things, but that will take me on a tangent from your original post.

anyhow, just sharing my insights w/ you not in anyway trying to persuade you to keep using them. i think you could probably be equally as successful just trading from pure price action from the pullback as Nel explained it.
"Believe nothing you hear and half of what you see." Proverb
  • #6,458
  • Mar 8, 2009 5:15am Mar 8, 2009 5:15am
Quoting Dahlia
Hmmm... What an interesting turn of events...

Lately, I've been using pin bars as one of my entry set ups because it's one of the most prominent set ups in the James16 thread. Plus, it appears to be one of the more popular signals I've heard of.

However, I finally did some back tests on pin bar set ups on the 5 minute timeframe this weekend, and I was quite surprised at my findings: Even with impeccable filters (higher lows, lower highs, news, proper market rhythm & speed, holidays, the length of the "nose", etc...), pinbars trades actually...
Hi Dah

Thanks for the information - interesting observations.

Yes, I don't trade every pinbar I can find. Just like I don't trade every pullback into the war zone. I do look at the setup and evaluate each setup individually. If the setup looks great e.g. the 3 little sisters/big brothers and then a pinbar appears, I would take it as an additional signal and trade it as such. I don't go out and look for pinbars and trade them.

Just look at the example posted earlier on this page - nice pinbar but it didn't work out. My opinion - too late on a Friday and it was a NFP Friday.

I am not going to through pinbar signals out the window - also I don't trade pinbars as a stand alone. But I'll use it as an addtional signal in the setups I do consider as high probability setups.

That is my style of trading.
Willem Forex recipe for success = Patience, discipline & hard work.
  • #6,459
  • Edited 6:43pm Mar 8, 2009 9:00am | Edited 6:43pm
Quoting fxgrinder
...when i back-tested, i didn't have the where-with-all to also cross-reference w/ news releases. lots of pin bars show up right before a news release. then, after the market screwed around after the release, it resumed course before the market bailed on the respective positions before the release. i realized this was seriously skewing my back-testing results.
For anyone who's interested, Hanover created a file of all news releases published by FF from 2006 through ~September (?) of 2008. That calendar file (spreadsheet) is what I used to filter out news set ups in my study, and it can be found on post #3 here: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=103184

Edited to add: You'd have to convert the time to your own timezone on Hanover's calendar...

Quoting fxgrinder
... what i found is that under normal conditions (no news) and when i stick to my trading plan (taking them only w/ a confirming set-up), they have a better than average success ... i.e., it was typically operator error that goofed them up... i have much more in the way of "unsubstantiated" observations about pins and other things, but that will take me on a tangent from your original post.
Perhaps it's the additional "confirming set-up" is the key to your success rate over mine? My testing assumed that the pin bar in the war zone IS the confirmation that the trend is about to continue (as opposed to any regular candle in the war-zone) Would you please pm me about these observations? I'd love to hear more...

By the way, some more specific details about my study: I only tested on the EU so far. The EU, seems to me, have much less random pin bars than the EY and the GU (my other 2 pairs). So, if the test fails for the EU, I'm thinking that it would fail miserably for the EY and GU.

The study assumed perfect execution, and EXCLUDED pin bar set ups that are:

1) within 15 minutes of a major news release, or result of such news release
2) preceded by a wrong way (counter-trend) pin bar or powerbar
3) preceded by wrong way high lows
4) too small pinbars (ie pin bars must be prominent size bar, at least slightly larger than the average bar)
5) in no-man's land (far away from the war zone)
6) counter trend
7) in traffic (congestion, out of rhythm)
8) holidays
Money missed is better than money lost
  • #6,460
  • Mar 8, 2009 9:08am Mar 8, 2009 9:08am
Quoting Golfer
Yes, I don't trade every pinbar I can find... If the setup looks great e.g. the 3 little sisters/big brothers and then a pinbar appears, I would take it as an additional signal and trade it as such. I don't go out and look for pinbars and trade them.

I am not going to through pinbar signals out the window - also I don't trade pinbars as a stand alone. But I'll use it as an addtional signal in the setups I do consider as high probability setups.
I think that perhaps this is the best way to use pin bars for this system - as an additional signal, and not as a stand alone one. As I said in my previous post, I thought that pin bars are strong signals (over regular bars in the warzone) that the trend is about to continue. My study convinced me that this is not the case.
Money missed is better than money lost
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