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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #6,461
  • Mar 5, 2009 3:41pm Mar 5, 2009 3:41pm
Quoting Jellybean
You sure pick the pullbacks well.

I'm staying out for ths one - how's that for someone who's usually too quick I'm looking at the daily trend and see this pullback too low in the channel for a good run. Also, the last move didn't make a lower low on the 4-hr chart, so I think there's a good chance of a pullback to around 1.2720.

I'll watch and learn.

Cheers
Jellybean.
thanks...actually, the 2573 entry is not as optimal as i would have liked...if i would have stuck to my plan yesterday and not jumped the gun...i'd be in around 2630-2650 and not have been charged a 75 pip tuition...lol

oh well, we live we learn...
  • #6,462
  • Mar 5, 2009 5:18pm Mar 5, 2009 5:18pm

Firstly, how do you know what the trend is?

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.

1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.

2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY time...LOL


http://i44.tinypic.com/2wh0390.gif
TRO
  • #6,463
  • Mar 5, 2009 5:42pm Mar 5, 2009 5:42pm
Quoting Money4Nothing

Firstly, how do you know what the trend is?

DETERMINE THE TIME FRAME THAT YOU WANT TO TRADE.

1. If the graph on the chart starts in the bottom left hand corner and ends in the top right hand corner, the market is going UP.

2. If the graph on the chart starts in the top left hand corner and ends in the bottom right hand corner, the market is going DOWN.

3. If you are still confused, print it off and show it to a 5 year old...they will get it right EVERY time...LOL
What do you do about screen size/resolution? The amount of bars will differ significantly from 800x600 to 1280x1024 and beyond.

What about zoom? My 5 year old says up for me
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,464
  • Mar 5, 2009 6:22pm Mar 5, 2009 6:22pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
What do you do about screen size/resolution? The amount of bars will differ significantly from 800x600 to 1280x1024 and beyond.

What about zoom? My 5 year old says up for me
sure is...if your trading very long term...most of the traders on this thread don't stay in postions for months and years...

g/l & g/t to you...
  • #6,465
  • Mar 5, 2009 6:39pm Mar 5, 2009 6:39pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
What do you do about screen size/resolution? The amount of bars will differ significantly from 800x600 to 1280x1024 and beyond.

What about zoom? My 5 year old says up for me
I came across this (http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?p=1489459&highlight=jacko+300+bars#post1489459) while reading this book - er - thread.

Seems 300 bars was a consensus at one point?

Hope this helps...

Good luck and thanks to all for the good information provided here.

Moose
  • #6,466
  • Mar 6, 2009 12:51am Mar 6, 2009 12:51am
Even on 300 candle on weekly, we do see up trend.</p>
The comment on long term trading or short term seem to make the weekly TF not valid. I am new, this is just an observation.
  • #6,467
  • Mar 6, 2009 12:57am Mar 6, 2009 12:57am
LOL, My 5 y/o says up and down daddy.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,468
  • Mar 6, 2009 2:53am Mar 6, 2009 2:53am
I see a monthly trend up with a huge pullback, which the current daily down trend is part of. That's partly why I'm wary about the pre-Christmas consolidation holding up any further fall.

However, I can't resist entering short if the pullback on the daily chart is 50% or there abouts.

I'm short at 1.2700 with 100 pip tsl. It's my daily chart below.

Jellybean
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #6,469
  • Mar 6, 2009 3:16am Mar 6, 2009 3:16am
Thank you jacko. Thank you Thank youThank you.
From 1.2500 to 1.2700 within 24 hours. I dunno how you do that but thank you thank you Thank you Thank you Thank you.
  • #6,470
  • Mar 6, 2009 4:28am Mar 6, 2009 4:28am
Hi Jacko,
I am a new member and find your thread very helpfull. I was wondering where do you post your up coming forcasts? If anybody else can help i apperciate.
Thank you.
  • #6,471
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:06am Mar 6, 2009 6:06am
Quoting fxachilies
Hi Jacko,
I am a new member and find your thread very helpfull. I was wondering where do you post your up coming forcasts? If anybody else can help i apperciate.
Thank you.
Hi fxachilies

Go here
http://waynejacksonfx.blogspot.com (http://waynejacksonfx.blogspot.com)

.
Jacko
  • #6,472
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:07am Mar 6, 2009 6:07am
Quoting dwildes
Hopefully that'll work. I'm not keen for shorts until at least 1.2620-.12650 myself as it's the bigger 50% on the H4
We ripped through those levels, and made it all the way to the 1.2720 level. We are forming a little bit of a bullish flag on the H1 and H4. So it look more probable that we're going to go up again.

I'm liking these levels for a short, but I'm going to wait as it doesn't seem like it's done yet.
  • #6,473
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:11am Mar 6, 2009 6:11am
wow...that was a fun ride last night.

Good thing I didn't change my TSL to 200 I STILL would have been out.

Shorted @ 2700...will close by noon since I don't like to hold over the weekend.
  • #6,474
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:12am Mar 6, 2009 6:12am
Quoting bgin2end
wow...that was a fun ride last night.

Good thing I didn't change my TSL to 200 I STILL would have been out.

Shorted @ 2700...will close by noon since I don't like to hold over the weekend.
Why open a position before such a major announcement coming up?
  • #6,475
  • Edited 6:34am Mar 6, 2009 6:22am | Edited 6:34am
Hi all,
I watched the fall of the Dow as it dropped another 4% yesterday. The Dow is now at 6594, (down over 50%, from its 14,000 point high) and falling hard.
As to how low can it go, it should be remembered that in the 1930’s the Dow dropped over 90%....that equates to a Dow of 1400 in todays market and an S&P 500 at 156 !!
Property has fallen 30%. Stocks are down 50% and still falling hard. And Fixed Interest isn’t even worth getting going to the bank.

Oh I have heard all the arguments that this will all soon be behind us, and that the markets will recover soon. However, the question to be addressed is ”What will turn this around?”
In the 1930’s, it was a little skirmish... called World War II .....that ended the Great Depression. (I hope, for all our sakes, that the politicians don’t decide to go that route of getting out of this recession)
The hope that the govt bailout will get us out of this economic crisis is a forlorn hope...it will only lead to stagflation (stagnant economy/high unemployment plus high inflation).

However, we here on Forex Factory are extremely fortunate that we are all acquiring skills in an asset class that allows us to maximise our assets by trading on the strengths and weaknesses of the two largest currencies in the world. And one thing that will never disappear is Money...One currency may change in value compared to other currencies but Money will always be in use everywhere in the world.

The other issue is that of "job security". In a time of job losses of 500,000+ per month, job security has been shown to be a structure made of smoke.
As I stated earlier, The "salary" has never been a truly reliable safety net....
We are seeing unemployment rising at the alarming rate of 500,000+ per month. And another unemployment/NFP number is coming out today...and it will not be pretty!!


As the world is going through this crisis, now more than ever before, each of the people on this forum are very fortunate to be involved in forex trading.
Once you have mastered the basic skills of trading, NO-ONE can ever take away your talents, your experience or your skills. And NO-ONE can take away your money-making abilities.

.
Jacko
  • #6,476
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:31am Mar 6, 2009 6:31am
Quoting dwildes
Why open a position before such a major announcement coming up?
Because technically I think we are not going higher than 2700 and def not 2800. I think the NFP has already been priced into the market and don't expect it to really impact price too much. also I work a full time job and can't watch the market after 8.
  • #6,477
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:37am Mar 6, 2009 6:37am
Quoting bgin2end
Because technically I think we are not going higher than 2700 and def not 2800. I think the NFP has already been priced into the market and don't expect it to really impact price too much. also I work a full time job and can't watch the market after 8.
It's your trade, but I think anyone who is going to make trading a serious profession wouldn't gamble in front of one of the wildest reacted news releases in forex.

That's just me though....

I do wish you 'luck'
  • #6,478
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:42am Mar 6, 2009 6:42am
Quoting dwildes
It's your trade, but I think anyone who is going to make trading a serious profession wouldn't gamble in front of one of the wildest reacted news releases in forex.

That's just me though....

I do wish you 'luck'

ok ok...you've convinced me...still learning here.

I closed my position with a few pips profit, but will make sure I have my orders in at the top of the range...Thanks for the "bop in the head"

Have a good weekend.
  • #6,479
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:51am Mar 6, 2009 6:51am
Quoting bgin2end
ok ok...you've convinced me...still learning here.

I closed my position with a few pips profit, but will make sure I have my orders in at the top of the range...Thanks for the "bop in the head"

Have a good weekend.
Just as long as you don't come shouting if the market falls down to 1.2500.

Engineers will appreciate this: Here's the simple/logical way to look at trading before the NFP - it's not as repeatable. There are lots of knee-jerk reactions, things that won't make sense (news was bad - why is it going up, etc..). Can you say with high probability that you can trade the next NFP with the same level of success?

However, it's way easier to trade the reaction (fade) than try to predict the reaction. You are basically letting the market show you its hand first.
  • #6,480
  • Mar 6, 2009 6:53am Mar 6, 2009 6:53am
Quoting dwildes
Just as long as you don't come shouting if the market falls down to 1.2500....

I read this as the market is dropping, THANKS ...

I know it was a gamble so no, I am not upset. I understand the fade theory and I usually stick to it pretty well but I got excited seeing that quick bull move and I like to get in at the "top" if I can...

What am I looking for now, a retrace to 2700 after the NFP or a sustained break of 2600?
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