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  • #121
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:29pm Mar 4, 2009 4:29pm
Quoting strat
Everyone is welcome here

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Hey Srat and all,

Thanks for starting the thread...been following since the beginning and enjoy all the post. I do not post myself that much but have been trading forex for 3 years mostly and like you found how simple trading really is if you just listen and watch P/A. I started out in stocks and commodities in the early 80's with a price chart...mailed weekly...a pay phone on the corner of the street and a broker to bug all day with price quotes. We actually had to hand draw our bars and calculate the fib's by hand...believe it or not. It really taught patience and letting the market set up for you to pull the trigger. I have said it a few times on FF...if we can get rid of the gunslinger attitude (no offence gunslinger) all markets will tell their hand when they are ready. Plan a trade and trade that plan. Read all that you can find on great traders and they all really say the same thing. Follow the trend until it ends and grab the "meat of the trade."

I think you should change the thread to "Grab the meat trading." I'll guarantee you will confuse or loose half the traders here on FF.

Just kidding of course....

No gunslingers...take the time to look at your long term charts and ask if and when. Put in those limit orders and trade small with mulitiple lots and step away from the screen and enjoy life!

Just my humble 2 cents,

golfer
  • #122
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:41pm Mar 4, 2009 4:41pm
Quoting fugly
Hi Strat,

Thanks for your guidance, I'm following along.

In regard to ol doc Joe's strategy personally I think its easier said than done.

How would you know when the trend ends? what if their is no discernable trend and you keep switching between buying and selling till you no longer have any money left to buy or sell?

what if you buy on a decline in an uptrend and the price goes further south and you buy some more and it goes down still some more and you realize its a trend change (everything looks great in hindsight doesn't it). Well it...
Hello fugly,

I hope you're not!

How would you know when the trend ends?
I'll give you the answer Dr. Joe gave me - When it stops going up!

what if their is no discernable trend and you keep switching between buying and selling till you no longer have any money left to buy or sell?

By the way, it's not possessive so it's there, not their.
If you are switching between buying and selling especially until you have no money left then you have no business trading.
You are taking things in isolation. I posted somewhere that we trade price action at support and resistance. This, along with the direction from the higher time frame, guides us in our trades. Also we manage our trades once in a position. If we have put on a trade that we can't afford to lose, then again, we have no business trading and are just fodder for the big guys.

what if you buy on a decline in an uptrend and the price goes further south and you buy some more and it goes down still some more and you realize its a trend change

Unless the brokerage houses put a fake move on, it rarely happens to me the way I trade. Go back to Post # 26, I think it is. I trade on momentum not on guesswork. I only want the market to fill my order if it moves in my direction.

On a dip in an uptrend and IF price action was at support and everything else was lining up, I would place a buy order several pips ABOVE the high of the preceeding bar - if price doesn't go up, I don't get filled.

What I'd like to say if I may is that trading really isn't simple, if it were simple 90% wouldn't fail assuming the majority ie 90% are capable of successfully accomplishing simple tasks. If you find the majority unable to successfully do something what does it tell you .... it tells you what you thought to be simple is actually not so. SIMPLY because most people haven't been able to do it.

You are welcome to say anything you like as long as it is either constructive or funny.

After having been through the trading wringer and been spat out in tiny little pieces with all my fancy indicators stuck up where the sun don't shine, I feel qualified to say that it is the trader himself that decides whether it is simple or complicated. It was innately complicated and stressful for me BEFORE the light went on and until I found out it was I that was making it complicated.

As opportune as he usually is, my old mate Jacko has just posted this post # 6430 on his thread:

Mar 4, 2009 11:41am (5 hr ago)
jacko
Senior Member
Member Since Mar 2006
http://www.forexfactory.com/images/misc/10+kt.gif 687 Posts

http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon1.gif
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phonetic http://www.forexfactory.com/images/buttons/viewpost.gif
Jacko, i believe i've thanked you for your help in the past but I just re-read the first page of the thread after almost losing faith in this business and I just wanted to say thank you AGAIN. Im 20 years old and have been trading since 15 (started with penny stocks been trying at forex for almost 2 years) and have not been profitable ever. I've had some nice gains and then the market takes it all back. I will keep at it because I do believe I can grasp it and it will be worth all of the hard lessons learned.

Thanks again Jacko, this thread has...

Hi Phonetic,

Anyone can succeed in this "trading" business. But you need to see trading as a little bit different to how you approach a normal job.
In a "normal" job, you are expected to "work hard" and "rush around" and "look eager" and "be proactive" and "be busy" and "look important". (It is part of the political game of normal, big business)
In trading, it is the opposite, you should park the "ego" at the door, be calm and patient, and trade ONLY when the risk/reward ratio is in your favor. It is not easy, but it is simple.

You are only 20..boy, I wish that forex had been around when I was 20 !!
.
Jacko




Since Jacko trades with $2,000+/pip contracts and has made $millions trading his simple method, he is far more qualified than I to say "Trading is Simple".

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #123
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:47pm Mar 4, 2009 4:47pm
Quoting BaliuxXx
I see EUR/USD is making little W. Got long @1.2646 TP1.2800
Wow, send me your photo - you must have balls the size of elephants!

Yes, we are in 3 out of 4 up cycles suggesting higher prices - but to what extent. Both Daily and Weekly are in a downtrend and I wouldn't be looking to buy until we had a sign from Buddy Holly.

Good luck

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #124
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:50pm Mar 4, 2009 4:50pm
Quoting thegunslinger
Good thing this wasn't for real.

There's a reason I have BE PATIENT written in giant letters on the whiteboard above my computer. My analysis is often right but I get impatient and enter before solid confirmation. I'm working on it and getting better at it (I haven't jumped on any of the other waiting trades, I dunno why I felt inclined to do this one) but impatience still creeps its ugly head in every once in awhile.
Stick with us kid, wait for the signs and you will do good.

Rock n Roll
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #125
  • Mar 4, 2009 4:54pm Mar 4, 2009 4:54pm
Quoting elitejets
If only ....
I'm good at following rules but there is no rule book for the psychology of trading ... That one I am working on.
Thanks though!
I keep throwing my psycho stuff in every now and then. Let me know what troubles you and I'll tell you about my "man in the mirror" horror stories.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #126
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:03pm Mar 4, 2009 5:03pm
Quoting golferfx
Hey Srat and all,

Thanks for starting the thread...been following since the beginning and enjoy all the post....
Golfer,
Thank you for posting and keep on posting. I used to lurk on Forums but didn't post although I had lots to say. Now as a thread originator, I see the benefit of posting and, since we are all here to help each other, every little post helps - as long as it is constructive and not negative, of course.

It was fun back in the old days drawing charts, you actually felt part of the instrument you were charting. Of even more benefit was calculating indicators and then drawing them. Every time you filled in the prices for "n days ago", you realised there and then that you were just constructing an indicator of history. It should be required coursework for all new traders to calculate indicators and then let's see how many think they are valuable.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #127
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:16pm Mar 4, 2009 5:16pm
Quoting strat
Hello John,

Thanks for the kind words. I wish I was "up there" with Jacko - he's got $millions, I have only $thousands - but $money is not everything - I like to think I can trade as good as "me old mate". "Old" - that's a laugh - he's ten years younger than I!!!!
Ok so that would make you ...mmmm... 40 something?...LOL

Quoting strat
As you can see from some of my experiences, I was told and taught but although I listened, I didn't "hear". I don't know how to explain it. For me, it seemed as if I had to go through torture and loss of $hundreds of thousands before "the light went on". Others, like Nicola here, only have to be shown once and they get it straightaway.
I second that...worst thing is knowing full well you getting yourself in a potential hellhole...but keep going forward...the deer in the headlights scenario as it were

Quoting strat
I share (or did) your need to take something and make it better. I would always find something, trade it, prove it works and then try to improve on it

I bet you also troll all the Forums out there looking for new systems, strategies and maybe indicators - I know I did.
Yup...been there done that...have all the indicators I need to play to my hearts content when I feel like it...but since going fulltime I have seriously gone the PA route...even though I'll admit sometimes the itch comes back...

Quoting strat
It was only when I got to the "light going on" moment that I realised I knew more than most of the scammers and developers out there. At that point, I accepted my strengths and weaknesses and developed my own method using what worked for me.
I guess I am still trying to "find my way"...a journey that will likely take years to fully accomplish...after all I'm still in my nappies trading wise compared to yourself and your peers...

Quoting strat
When you develop your own method/strategy, you know more about it and understand it better than anyone else and it gives you the confidence and belief to use it. My method is not new, just applying common sense to tried and proven practices.

My advice is to know what works for you then build YOUR method around it using everything and anything you have learned and trade it until you make it into a profitable method. You will be amazed at how much you will grow as a trader by doing this.
Again..I guess we all feel the need to find our own way to do any particular task...its one of the things that make every person unique in the end - though I keep telling myself "if it works don't fix it" ..after all price has always been, is and will always be exactly that...just PRICE.

Quoting strat
Thanks for visiting and feel free to ask questions - we are building up a team of quality traders on here.
Thank you...I am lucky enough to be already in Wayne's and Jim's inner circle as it were...havingyour insight and experience to delve into should only help...my own stubborness aside...(what the heck...let's see if THIS works syndrome)

At this point I do have a question ... in the market situation we have been experiencing of late have you made some changes to your risk management to account for the increased volatility given you havenìt come down from the daily tf...? I ask because others have done so to try to read the volatilty more closely...what is your view?

Quoting strat
Rock n Roll,
Strat
Rock On...
Nihil inimicus quam sibi ipse Marcus Tullius Cicero
  • #128
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:21pm Mar 4, 2009 5:21pm
Quoting strat
Golfer,
Thank you for posting and keep on posting. I used to lurk on Forums but didn't post although I had lots to say. Now as a thread originator, I see the benefit of posting and, since we are all here to help each other, every little post helps - as long as it is constructive and not negative, of course.

It was fun back in the old days drawing charts, you actually felt part of the instrument you were charting. Of even more benefit was calculating indicators and then drawing them. Every time you filled in the prices for "n days ago", you realised...
Strat
have you heard about a trader Called Ken Roberts.....i purchased his course to trade Futures on the North American Exchange.
i never made trading the way he taught,123 concept.....but the intresting thing was i subscibed to a charting company,who would mail them to me,i am in the Uk.....probably got them on a Tuesday......but i remembered,ploting the Days Prices on all the Commodities from a news paper.......those were the days or not maybe...
Sugar,cofee,Oj,Beans....boy Oj slammed me big time though

baz
  • #129
  • Edited 5:32pm Mar 4, 2009 5:22pm | Edited 5:32pm
I think this is a nice long now!!
There is a 1hr pin on USDCHF (cover your ears Strat) which is right at the bottom of the up channel. It looks like it is about to break that pin and that would tempt me long on this one.
There might be a pin on EURUSD 4hr off the resistance line in the 1.2670 area which makes me confident that USDCHF might be good to go up if there is some momentum in the asian open tonight.
I am still learning so just my newbie opinion.
Nicola

Quoting thegunslinger
Good thing this wasn't for real.

There's a reason I have BE PATIENT written in giant letters on the whiteboard above my computer. My analysis is often right but I get impatient and enter before solid confirmation. I'm working on it and getting better at it (I haven't jumped on any of the other waiting trades, I dunno why I felt inclined to do this one) but impatience still creeps its ugly head in every once in awhile.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #130
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:36pm Mar 4, 2009 5:36pm
Quoting elitejets
I think this is a nice long now!!
There is a 1hr pin on USDCHF (cover your ears Strat) which is right at the bottom of the up channel. It looks like it is about to break that pin and that would tempt me long on this one.
There might be a pin on EURUSD 4hr off the resistance line in the 1.2670 area which makes me confident that USDCHF might be good to go up if there is some momentum in the asian open tonight.
I am still learning so just my newbie opinion.
Nicola
I agree. Today's action hasn't changed my belief that USD/CHF is headed up and GBP + EUR are going down. Not yet anyway. All of them are still well within their trend channels. This might be the final shake out move up before we get a bigger down move. Even when you look at the daily chart level.
  • #131
  • Mar 4, 2009 5:56pm Mar 4, 2009 5:56pm
Quoting coscorp
Ok so that would make you ...mmmm... 40 something?...LOL



I second that...worst thing is knowing full well you getting yourself in a potential hellhole...but keep going forward...the deer in the headlights scenario as it were



Yup...been there done that...have all the indicators I need to play to my hearts content when I feel like it...but since going fulltime I have seriously gone the PA route...even though I'll admit sometimes the itch comes back...



I guess I am still trying to "find my way"...a journey that will likely take years to...
[quote=coscorp;2580170]Ok so that would make you ...mmmm... 40 something?
Jacko is 52 and, in his own words, "an old man". See my first post - I celebrated my 3rd 20th birthday last June and feel like an 18 year old! I keep telling him he is young but he somehow sees the need to push seniority.

At this point I do have a question ... in the market situation we have been experiencing of late have you made some changes to your risk management to account for the increased volatility given you havenìt come down from the daily tf...? I ask because others have done so to try to read the volatilty more closely...what is your view?

This answer is going to seem like the blonde joke when she was asked about the impact of higher gas prices on her budget. Her answer was that it doesn't affect her as she only puts in $20 at a time!

I know Jacko has dropped down to H4 but I don't understand why as he hates having to watch the one eyed monster more often than he need do.

Nothing has changed in the way I have always managed my risk. My stop losses always go at swing highs or lows or support and resistance but NEVER by pip value. Yes, those levels are further away now but so are the profits. It's all relative.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #132
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:52pm Mar 4, 2009 6:52pm
Quoting baz
Strat
have you heard about a trader Called Ken Roberts.....i purchased his course to trade Futures on the North American Exchange.
i never made trading the way he taught,123 concept.....but the intresting thing was i subscibed to a charting company,who would mail them to me,i am in the Uk.....probably got them on a Tuesday......but i remembered,ploting the Days Prices on all the Commodities from a news paper.......those were the days or not maybe...
Sugar,cofee,Oj,Beans....boy Oj slammed me big time though

baz
The Ken Roberts promotional materials are what changed me to commodities in the mid to late 80s. I don't know of anyone who made money with him - I have heard he makes more money selling his course than he does trading. Now where have I heard that before - those that do, do and those that can't teach!

Rock n Roll, Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #133
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:54pm Mar 4, 2009 6:54pm
Hi Strat and all, I've been following this thread since your first post. I like you and your style. I'm a member of Jacko's group as well, so I'm just trying to mesh as many successful (yet simple) styles into my own style, so thanks for the posts, I enjoy reading your thoughts.

As for the USDJPY trade you took at 97.00, as soon as you posted that, I threw on a Buy Limit at 97.00 and it looks like we both JUST got filled since the market went to 96.98, and I've got a 2 pip spread. Gotta like that...

So now that we're at 99.20ish and handsomely in the black, I'm running a 100 TSL on this trade. I looked over the H1 yen and calculated that you'd get a pretty good run since the fluctuations were usually contained within 100 pips. Are you running a TSL or do you move your stops manually to the low of the previous day's bar?

Thanks in advance and also for your insight.

Brian
  • #134
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:58pm Mar 4, 2009 6:58pm
Quoting elitejets
I think this is a nice long now!!
There is a 1hr pin on USDCHF (cover your ears Strat) which is right at the bottom of the up channel. It looks like it is about to break that pin and that would tempt me long on this one.
There might be a pin on EURUSD 4hr off the resistance line in the 1.2670 area which makes me confident that USDCHF might be good to go up if there is some momentum in the asian open tonight.
I am still learning so just my newbie opinion.
Nicola
Who forgot to post the chart then? See it happens to you young ones as well as us older ones!

I'm not qualified to comment Nicola - I'm hopeless on short time frames - don't forget minor resistance is at 1.1800 and 1.1910

Nicola, with the pips you make, you are no longer allowed to call yourself a "newbie" - remember we called you Queen Nicola?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #135
  • Mar 4, 2009 7:00pm Mar 4, 2009 7:00pm
Quoting thegunslinger
I agree. Today's action hasn't changed my belief that USD/CHF is headed up and GBP + EUR are going down. Not yet anyway. All of them are still well within their trend channels. This might be the final shake out move up before we get a bigger down move. Even when you look at the daily chart level.
All agreed and Baba G too!

Don't anticipate the move tgs, wait for it to present itself to you - much safer and less riskier

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #136
  • Mar 4, 2009 7:15pm Mar 4, 2009 7:15pm
Quoting NotoriousFAT
Hi Strat and all, I've been following this thread since your first post. I like you and your style. I'm a member of Jacko's group as well, so I'm just trying to mesh as many successful (yet simple) styles into my own style, so thanks for the posts, I enjoy reading your thoughts.

As for the USDJPY trade you took at 97.00, as soon as you posted that, I threw on a Buy Limit at 97.00 and it looks like we both JUST got filled since the market went to 96.98, and I've got a 2 pip spread. Gotta like that...

So now that we're at 99.20ish and handsomely...
Good man, Brian.

But remember, I am only posting for educational purposes not for trading purposes and equally as important, I do get a lot of them wrong. Lots of losers and a few big, biggies.

How you manage the trade is at your discretion. There is no right or wrong way. I really don't like trailing stops so don't use them. Jacko doesn't know how to do it on his laptop so he moves his manually. I don't look at anything less than Daily as it might cause the gremlins and demons and the man in the mirror to come out and play.

Before I visit the land of nod tonight around 10 -11pm PST, I will take a look at what the Asian boys are doing with regard to cycles and momentum. Today's action is weaker than yesterday with declining volume and equal momentum.

With it being "their" currency, I have a sneaky suspicion that they will take some profits off the table before going higher but let's notjump the gun.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #137
  • Mar 4, 2009 8:12pm Mar 4, 2009 8:12pm
Quoting strat
But remember, I am only posting for educational purposes not for trading purposes and equally as important, I do get a lot of them wrong. Lots of losers and a few big, biggies.
Strat, rest assured I'm not using you as a signal service... I don't even use Jacko for that even though he provides it when he makes a trade. I'm just trying to understand your thought processes when you look at a chart and assess it. I wouldn't blame you if the trade tanked either. Nobody forced me to take it...

However, out of this trade I've learned a bit about "profit-taking" as you call it, others might call it consolidation.

So please don't be dissuaded from posting your trades on here (obviously only to the degree of detail that you're comfortable with). Everybody is big enough to understand that the trade might not always go in their favor. I think more people are just trying to draw upon your 3x20 yrs of wisdom...
  • #138
  • Mar 5, 2009 8:36am Mar 5, 2009 8:36am
Quoting strat
Don't anticipate the move tgs, wait for it to present itself to you - much safer and less riskier
I resisted last night. I was SO wanting to put on a short of the GBP/USD bounce off the 1.4150 level. And I don't think I would have been wrong to do so either. I know you're trying to impress upon the readers of your thread a longer term view of the pairings (daily and above), but I do like to trade off of the 4H as well and there was a very nice confluence of signals:

- Price turning on a dime at strong resistance [1.4150]
- Bounce off UTL of down channel
- Bearish engulfing candle
- Making a lower swing high

It was also the entry point that I said I was looking for after Sunday's opening move down. But I didn't trade it and instead I'm waiting for my sell stop at 1.3945 to get hit.
  • #139
  • Mar 5, 2009 12:07pm Mar 5, 2009 12:07pm
Well I got lucky, real lucky on this. Usually when I do this, it takes off in the opposite direction for hundreds of pips.

Before going to the land of nod, I looked at what the Asian boys had done/were doing and saw price stuck around 99.20ish on lower than normal volume for them. Since I was really expecting them to drive it up to the magic 100 mark in an exhaustion spike it started me thinking.

Now, when I start thinking, I try to visualise them in their brokerages, banks and trading houses and see myself stood alongside them a la Remote Viewing (I told you I was weird!). I didn't see them buying any US Treasuries and since they have a big say in where the USDJPY goes just thought they had lost interest and packed up for the week.

I took one more shufty at the chart, saw 3 out of 4 cycles topping with the 4th just beginning it's up cycle with momentum stalling at 6 levels of resistance from 98.50 to 100.80 and closed my orders and said Sayonara!

I really thought I did the wrong thing because I don't normally interfere in mid session of a daily bar and when I do it goes pear shaped.

I was pleasantly surprised this morning to see I made the right decision.

Then, with a clear thought process, wondered why I struggled with this decision. If I expected it to stall at the psycho level of 100 and I am at 99.20, why would I even think of trying to hang on for a measly 0.80?

After a session with the guy in the mirror, I realised it was because of GREED. I thought I had this monster tamed and under control but apparently not. So, back to another read of trading pysychology books for me!

If this current daily bar continues to be an outside bearish engulfing bar closing below 98.50 at the NY close, then I will be placing my sell order a few pips below the low of the bar.

Arigato gozaimusu for my pips

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #140
  • Mar 5, 2009 12:11pm Mar 5, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting elitejets
I think this is a nice long now!!
There is a 1hr pin on USDCHF (cover your ears Strat) which is right at the bottom of the up channel. It looks like it is about to break that pin and that would tempt me long on this one.
There might be a pin on EURUSD 4hr off the resistance line in the 1.2670 area which makes me confident that USDCHF might be good to go up if there is some momentum in the asian open tonight.
I am still learning so just my newbie opinion.
Nicola
Did you take this, Nicola, and how did you do?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
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