Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment | Page 159 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

High Risk/Low Reward Ratio Trading System 108 replies

High risk reward experiment 0 replies

Low Risk/High Reward trading 4 replies

Good reward/risk ratio experiment 20 replies

Results for Low Risk,High Reward 11 replies

Attachments: Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment
Exit Attachments

Low Risk, High Reward Trading Experiment

  • #3,161
  • Edited 2:29pm Mar 29, 2007 12:40am | Edited 2:29pm
Thursday 3/29

 3:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate 9.2% 9.2% 9.3%
4:00 EUR German Retail PMI 52.8 45.0
4:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals 119K 117K 120K
4:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 11.2B 10.7B
6:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized 32 20 19
6:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Expected 21 18 16
8:00 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30 USD GDP Annualized q/q (r) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif 2.5% 2.2% 2.5% (revised from 2.2%)
8:30 USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (r) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
8:30 USD Unemployment Claims 308K 320K 316K
10:00 USD Fed Governor Kohn Speaks http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif
13:15 CAD BOC Governor Dodge Speaks
18:45 NZD GDP q/q http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 0.9% 0.3%
19:30 JPY Core CPI m/m -0.1% 0.1%
19:30 JPY Tokyo CPI m/m 0.1% -0.2%
19:30 JPY Core Tokyo CPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 0.1% -0.1%
19:30 JPY Overall Household Spending y/y 0.7% 0.6%
19:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI 53
19:30 JPY Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
19:50 JPY Industrial Production m/m (p) -1.0% -1.7%
21:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -1.4%

The UK data released today shows that the UK housing and consumer sectors was still firm during the first quarter. The latest figures on bank lending recorded an increase to GBP11.2bn in February from GBP10.5bn the previous month while mortgage approvals were steady over the month at 119,000 compared with 114,000 the previous year.
The latest CBI consumer spending trends survey reported that the net balance of retailers recording rising sales was +32 compared with +19 in February and this was the strongest monthly report since December 2004. There was also particular strength in housing-related spending areas.
The data will maintain near-term confidence in housing and spending trends which will also support Sterling. The underlying risks are continuing to build, however, with consumer spending still being financed in part through higher borrowing secured on rising house prices.
The overall evidence still suggests that there is substantial speculative excess in the UK property market which will tend to weaken Sterling in the medium term.

8:30 ET USD GDP Annualized q/q (r) 2.5% 2.2% 2.5% (revised from 2.2%)- The dollar strengthened after data showed the US economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the last three months of 2006 than thought previously. The Commerce Department estimated the US economy grew at a 2.5 pct annualised rate between October and December, faster than the 2.2 pct estimated earlier. Economists had expected no revision. 'On the face of it the revision seems positive and the market's reacting accordingly, ' said Mitul Kotecha, head of forex strategy at Caylon. 'However if you look at the detail I think the reaction will be pretty short-lived. Residential investment was down 19.8 pct, equipment and software was down 3.4 pct while a lot of the gains came from inventories,' he added. The dollar gained on major currencies, pushing the euro down to 1.3316 usd from 1.3352 shortly before the data was released. The price of EUR/USD then bounced back up to 1.3346.

8:30 ET USD Unemployment Claims 308K 320K 318K (revised) - The dollar also received a short-lived boost from news the number of newly laid-off workers signing up for unemployment benefits last week declined, suggesting the job market is still in good shape even as the economy goes through a sluggish spell. The Labor Department said new claims filed for unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 308,000. 'The reading is back within the range claims had been tracking since last summer suggesting that the period of elevated readings in February owed to disruptive weather, and that overall the labour market remains stable and fairly tight,' said analysts at Barclays Capital.

Meanwhile, rising oil prices and geopolitical risks weigh on the dollar. Oil prices spiked to $68 per barrel this week amid geopolitical tensions over Iran and trade above $65 today.
  • #3,162
  • Mar 29, 2007 1:56am Mar 29, 2007 1:56am
Felix Homogratus' favorite announcement trading opportunities:"We have New Zealand GDP coming out for the 4th quarter. This puppy comes out only 4 times a year, and it's a SUPER HOT indicator for New Zealand I am excited to trade it. The reading is expected at 0.9%. Higher than expected reading would probably be bullish for New Zealand dollar, and NZD/USD may possibly go up, and lower than expected reading would probably be bad for New Zealand dollar, and NZD/USD may possibly go down. If the reading comes out at 1.2% or higher, NZD/USD may possibly go up by 50 to 70 pips or more in the first half an hour of the report. If the reading comes out at 0.6% or lower, NZD/USD may possibly go down by 50 to 70 pips or more in the first half hour of the report. If you miss the initial spike, you can try to get in within 20 pips of the initial move, and use a stop of around 20 pips, and a take profit of around 30 pips.
3. Thursday, March 29th, 2007 (7:30 pm New York Time) JAPAN
Then we have Japanese CPI coming out. We have a bunch of different numbers coming out Japanese attention to details and technicality is very well reflected in this report My main focus is going to be on Tokyo CPI x food, which is expected at 0.0% y/y. Higher number would probably be good for the yen, and we may possibly see USD/JPY go down, and lower number would probably be bad for the yen, and we may possibly see USD/JPY go up. If the reading comes out at 0.3% or higher, USD/JPY may possibly go down by 50 to 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. If the reading comes out at -0.3% or lower, USD/JPY may possibly go up by 50 to 70 pips or more in the first hour of the report. Watch out for any big conflicts from the National CPI, and any other numbers. As long as there are no conflicts on the other numbers, we should be OK."
  • #3,163
  • Mar 29, 2007 3:18am Mar 29, 2007 3:18am
Short USD/CAD at about 1.1675

Short EUR/USD at about 1.3400

Long EUR/USD at about 1.3250

Sell GBP/USD at about 1.9715

Long GBP/USD at about 1.9575

Short GBP/JPY at 232.00

Long GBP/JPY at 225.40 - 227.00
  • #3,164
  • Mar 29, 2007 10:49am Mar 29, 2007 10:49am
Quoting itme
Whereas I believe that I may have learnt enough about my Q Theory, Elliott Wave Theory, Announcement Science, Fibonacci Projections and Fundamental Macroeconomics to manage a high performance subjective trading system, I am interested to learn what is possible with a 100% objective or semi-objective (mechanised) trading system.

I have spent the last few weeks reading various forums and websites on this topic, but the volume of information seems to be sufficient to keep a person fully occupied for several decades. If anyone knows of a solid performing objective trading system that I could examine and extract ideas from or simply employ in its finished form, please post it here or PM me.

What I would like to see is a system that has a 40% or better Win% with a 3:1 or better Reward/Risk ratio, or a 75% Win% with a .5 or better Reward/Risk ratio. Or something in between these two extremes. The greater the frequency of trades, the better, of course.

Thank you in advance for your help. It's time to put a good system together and give it a whirl!
Itme,

Why not just trade with the trend??

It is sooo much easier and soooo much more profitable.

.
  • #3,165
  • Mar 29, 2007 12:17pm Mar 29, 2007 12:17pm
Quoting jacko
Itme,

Why not just trade with the trend??

It is sooo much easier and soooo much more profitable.

.
Thanks, Jacko. I think we went over this territory before. To trade with the trend is the same thing as saying "to win" or "to profit". Everyone attempts to trade with the trend who is trying to win or succeed at investing. The devil is in the details. How does one determine exactly when to enter the market in order to trade "with the trend"?
Yes, I do understand that to attempt to predict the reversal point exactly is more difficult than to attempt to recognise an existing trend, and then to carefully choose an appropriate point of entry. The best entry point is at the point when a retracement has ended, and the forward motion is about to resume. I accept that, and have mentioned it several times as a good strategy. We need a method to do this, however. And then we need a method to know how long to stay in the trend until it is over, not too much before, and not too much after. Do you know a specific method? I've heard that you do. Is it a specifically formulated trading system? Does it have a name? Where or how can one examine it? What is its performance? What is the average Win%, Reward : Risk Ratio, frequency of trades, and distribution of losses? Thanks for showing us a way ahead, Jacko. I've heard that you are a very successful trader. What is the ticket to success?
  • #3,166
  • Mar 29, 2007 8:12pm Mar 29, 2007 8:12pm
Hi itme,

Read the posts (4 to 8) here:

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22673

Good luck.

.
  • #3,167
  • Mar 30, 2007 12:57am Mar 30, 2007 12:57am
Quoting jacko
Hi itme,
Read the posts (4 to 8) here:
http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22673
Good luck.
.
Thanks, Jacko. We need to be aware of what the market is really doing. We mustn't ever lose track of the general trend. Perhaps if we learn that lesson very well, then we can enter and exit at the right times (at least most of the time) and make the high returns we seek. Congratulations on your sustained success, and thanks for offering your sage advise to others. We should all study your remarks carefully.
  • #3,168
  • Edited 8:06pm Mar 30, 2007 1:06am | Edited 8:06pm
Friday 3/30

1:00 JPY Housing Starts y/y -9.9% -2.0% -0.7%
2:00 EUR German Retail Sales m/m 0.5% -4.3%
5:00 EUR CPI y/y (p) 1.9% 1.8%
5:00 EUR Unemployment Rate 7.3% 7.4%
5:00 EUR Consumer Confidence -5 -5
5:30 GBP Consumer Confidence -8 -8
8:30 USD Core PCE Price Index m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 0.2% 0.3%
8:30 USD Personal Spending m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif 0.3% 0.5%
8:30 USD Personal Income m/m 0.3% 1.0%
8:30 CAD GDP m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 0.2% 0.4%
8:30 CAD IPPI m/m 0.2% -0.1%
8:30 CAD RMPI m/m 0.6% -3.1%
9:45 USD Chicago PMI http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 49.5 47.9
10:00 USD Consumer Sentiment (r) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif 88.8 88.8
10:00 USD Construction Spending m/m -0.6% -0.8%
12:00 USD Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks

Early in Friday's US session, before the US government's decision to levy trade sanctions on imports of Chinese paper, the dollar gained only slightly after a run of US economic data came in better than expected. Core PCE rose 0.4% in February, showing core inflation risks remain high. Personal income and consumption both increased 0.6%, better than expectation. Chicago PMI surprisingly climbed from 47.9 to 61.7, far above the forecast of 49.2. Later, a weak number University of Michigan consumer sentiment fell from 91.3 to 88.3 in March, the lowest in six months.

Japanese fundamentals

A substantial rally in the yen over the month of February has negated a rise in the oil prices as inflation from Japan fails to meet analysts' expectations of a recovery to positive territory. The more closely watched Tokyo CPI came in Thursday March 29 at -0.1% on both headline and core levels while the CPI measures on the national level were an even greater disappointment with a -0.2% reading in core against the expected -0.1% and a -0.3% in headline vs. the expected -0.1%. (All CPI figures reported on a m/m basis.) The second consecutive day of weak economic data after yesterday's retail sales figures bodes poorly for bringing about a faster pace of tightening and will likely keep the Bank of Japan on the sidelines until the third quarter.

Better than anticipated industrial production and strength in household spending components from Japan were the silver lining in the weak inflation figures, suggesting that an economic slowdown in Japan's Q1 GDP relative to the strong previous quarter should not be expected. As such, 118.50 resistance in USD/JPY is still intact and offering medium-term yen bulls a low risk opportunity ahead of potential further weakness from the US consumer sector tomorrow when Personal Spending, Personal Income, and Consumer sentiment are reported.

The Dollar rose against the Yen on Thursday in its biggest one-day percentage gain in almost three weeks after data showed the US economy grew at a faster pace in the 4Q than initially reported. [ 8:30 USD GDP Annualized q/q (r) 2.5% 2.2% 2.5% (revised from 2.2%) ] Investors have also re-entered risky carry trades, which involve borrowing the low-yielding Yen to fund purchase of other assets with higher interest rates, such as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. Nzd/Jpy, highest interest rates in the industrialized world at 7.5% compared with just 0.5% in Japan, climbed just under 1.86% to 84.45; easily erasing the previous day's slide. Aud/Jpy also posted gains, rising 1.17% to 95.36.
US GDP report showed the US economy may be more resilient than many initially thought and supported growing expectations the Federal Reserve may hold interest rates steady for some time. US 4Q GDP growth was revised up modestly to 2.5% from 2.2% in the final estimate. However, it is still below the initial estimate of a 3.5% increase.
Main focus was the return of the market's risk appetite, traders and analysts said. That was following the Fed Chairman Bernanke's statement on Wednesday, when he gave a more balanced view of the US economy. Bernanke acknowledged risks from the weak housing market, but confirmed that inflationary pressure remains. The market interpreted that to mean the Fed is not ready to reduce US interest rates just yet. US government on Thursday said it remains committed to pursuing a diplomatic resolution of tension in the Middle East, which calmed investors as they await the next monetary policy move from the Fed.
Usd/Jpy rose to day's high of 118.38 as traders expected strong demand to buy dollars would emerge from Japanese companies, which are closing their books on the fiscal year.
  • #3,169
  • Mar 30, 2007 1:51am Mar 30, 2007 1:51am
Announcement trading successfully consists of assessing the impending announcements in the light of history and developing a trading plan. Then one must subscribe to one or more news services or "trading weapons" and find out the results accurately within a split second, evaluate them, including revisions, mistakes (why confirmation is best), and simultaneous data releases, and then act within a second or two. Then one must exit at the correct time. It is very demanding, but nevertheless a successful style of trading to those who study it carefully and apply it with skill and discipline. One of the challenges is to find a broker who will fill your order without slippage and without too high a spread.

The following detail about an announcement trade by Felix Homogratus today illustrates some of these points:

"Then we had Japanese Industrial Production coming out. I forgot to tell you about it in my signal yesterday, but it was on my tradable schedule, and I traded it in the forexdiamonds room. Industrial Production came out way better than expected, and hit my short trigger. We saw a relatively nice spike down, and saw some profits, but then I looked at the annualized number, and several news services showed it at 4.2%, versus 2.4% expected, which was a huge difference. Looking at such high number, I was convinced that Yen would strengthen some more, so I decided not to take the profits, and wait for a bigger move, but then we started seeing some serious hesitation in the yen, the price wasn't going anywhere, and was retracing. I looked at the numbers again few minutes later, and I saw the annual number was now showing 2.6%. Apparently several news services, including bloomberg have made a mistake reporting this number. As soon as I saw this, I immediately exited with a -7 pips loss on GBP/JPY, which was basically the spread. It seemed like it was the perfect exit, because few minutes later, the price went the opposite direction by another -25 pips. I really hate taking a loss due to a screw up by news service, but unfortunately it happens sometimes. I have absolutely no regrets about this trade. It was perfect planning, and perfect execution, if the news services didn't let us down, it would be definitely a profit. And due to the screw up on the news services side, -7 pips was a small price to pay. There were quite a few people in the room who had better spread and got better fill, so they broke even on this trade. As forrest gump likes to say, "sh*t happens". I do strongly recommend you watch all of my today's live trading videos by going to this link:
http://www.forexdiamonds.com/performance
I know today, I had two small losses. It's easy to exit trades with a profit, the hard thing is cutting your losses short, in order to turn it into a disaster, and I suggest you watch these videos to learn a few things about that. "

19:50 ET JPY Industrial Production m/m (p) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif -0.2% -1.0% -1.7%
Following the data release the USD/JPY went down 10 pips, then up 10 pips to complete the Elliott Wave and meet the Quantum Target, then descended 70 pips.
  • #3,170
  • Mar 30, 2007 2:42am Mar 30, 2007 2:42am
Quoting itme
Announcement trading successfully consists of assessing the impending announcements in the light of history and developing a trading plan. Then one must subscribe to one or more news services or "trading weapons" and find out the results accurately within a split second, evaluate them, including revisions, mistakes (why confirmation is best), and simultaneous data releases, and then act within a second or two. Then one must exit at the correct time. It is very demanding, but nevertheless a successful style of trading to those who study it carefully and apply it with skill and discipline. One of the challenges is to find a broker who will fill your order without slippage and without too high a spread.

The following detail about an announcement trade by Felix Homogratus today illustrates some of these points:

"Then we had Japanese Industrial Production coming out. I forgot to tell you about it in my signal yesterday, but it was on my tradable schedule, and I traded it in the forexdiamonds room. Industrial Production came out way better than expected, and hit my short trigger. We saw a relatively nice spike down, and saw some profits, but then I looked at the annualized number, and several news services showed it at 4.2%, versus 2.4% expected, which was a huge difference. Looking at such high number, I was convinced that Yen would strengthen some more, so I decided not to take the profits, and wait for a bigger move, but then we started seeing some serious hesitation in the yen, the price wasn't going anywhere, and was retracing. I looked at the numbers again few minutes later, and I saw the annual number was now showing 2.6%. Apparently several news services, including bloomberg have made a mistake reporting this number. As soon as I saw this, I immediately exited with a -7 pips loss on GBP/JPY, which was basically the spread. It seemed like it was the perfect exit, because few minutes later, the price went the opposite direction by another -25 pips. I really hate taking a loss due to a screw up by news service, but unfortunately it happens sometimes. I have absolutely no regrets about this trade. It was perfect planning, and perfect execution, if the news services didn't let us down, it would be definitely a profit. And due to the screw up on the news services side, -7 pips was a small price to pay. There were quite a few people in the room who had better spread and got better fill, so they broke even on this trade. As forrest gump likes to say, "sh*t happens". I do strongly recommend you watch all of my today's live trading videos by going to this link:
http://www.forexdiamonds.com/performance
I know today, I had two small losses. It's easy to exit trades with a profit, the hard thing is cutting your losses short, in order to turn it into a disaster, and I suggest you watch these videos to learn a few things about that. "

19:50 ET JPY Industrial Production m/m (p) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif -0.2% -1.0% -1.7%
Following the data release the USD/JPY went down 10 pips, then up 10 pips to complete the Elliott Wave and meet the Quantum Target, then descended 70 pips.
interesting. sounds too nerve-wracking for me.
  • #3,171
  • Mar 30, 2007 9:57am Mar 30, 2007 9:57am
Quoting fibbinarchi
Jeez, Felix the Russian cat has created YET ANOTHER website to peddle his wares. Errr, Rob Signals sucked bigtime, loads or people got their accounts cleared out, what was the excuse? Um, he wasn't used to messenger, this MILLIONAIRE with the direct BANK FEED...How hard is it to type and place a trade? LOL ! I have seen at least four websites in the last year! Ummm. How much are you getting paid to advertise the shite?
First of all, fibbinarchi, I believe that you are violating Forum rules by commenting on an external service without sufficient posts. Secondly, your slagging of a person and service above is non-substantive, and dripping with naked hostility. My experience over many months is that Felix's analysis of announcements is of the highest possible calibre, is thorough, accurate, conservative, and highly useful. If you have some criticism of him or of his current competency or honesty, then please initiate a thread to reveal your case against him and to solicit other opinions. I will be sure to read it, and to contribute to it if I feel inspired. Thanks for your 'warning", but no thanks for your wild accusation that I am being paid by him. If you have another announcement trading expert that you can recommend who is better than Felix, please feel free to PM me and I will evaluate him or her.
  • #3,172
  • Edited 11:03am Mar 30, 2007 10:10am | Edited 11:03am
Quoting Qestionerr
Is there some kind of performance to go by? Are the trades successful enough to take? Thanks alot for your time and efforts!
Hi, Questioner. Sorry, but the experiments have been fruitful for learning, but not particularly profitable, as far as I know, though I haven't really analysed their profitability. The meaning would be relatively useless to me, because I am always changing my methods. I am recently attempting to increase the win rate, by reducing the frequency of trades and raising the standard of entry, etc. Also the new stop adjustment procedure is reducing the number of losses, but also filtering out many of the wins, such as the last trades shorting GBP/JPY and going long GBP/USD, both of which were stopped out at break even, but did move into significant profit territory afterwards. The last trade experiment shorting EUR/USD was also profitable, but I issued a bail out signal at break even because the Elliott Wave pattern was incomplete on the one minute scale. This happens quite often, even in perfect trades.

I am gradually morphing experiments into an actual trading system, and surveying many other systems right now. It is a huge job, as one might imagine. Also, one of the large hurdles between less successful trades and more successful trades is careful and thorough analysis according to four different complex models. This takes many hours, which aren't always available to me. My approach is not mechanical and technical indicator based, unfortunately.

To improve the quality of my signals, I am specialising in GBP/USD, EUR/USD and USD/CAD. I used to look at over a dozen pairs, looking for good trade opportunities. Many were cross currencies, which make large trends much more frequently than the majors. This was extremely time consuming, but yielded many more opportunities to test my analytical models and skill level, and to play around with system strategies. For instance, a few months ago I successfully captured 500 pips of GBP/JPY movement in only 36 hours.

I am now looking for full multi-system compliant trades with a 5:1 reward risk ratio. Sometimes, such as lately, GBP/USD and EUR/USD are in a choppy, tricky large Fourth Wave consolidate phase. USD/CAD finally broke out in a strong move downwards, and though I was expecting it, I wasn't checking at the right time, so it slipped through my fingers. During the large Wave 4's there are few, if any, fully system compliant trade opportunities for a couple of weeks for a swing trade system.

The goal is to find about one trade a week that is fully system compliant, and to win over 50% of the time. This would be a wildly profitable system, if it can be accomplished. This is an experiment, and I don't recommend taking the signals independently. Like many others do, pass them through the filter of your own, successful trading system, or look in occasionally on my thread with bemused interest. I am monitoring fundamentals and announcements lately , as you can see, in order to hone my mastery of these aspects of the equation. If these aspects concern you, you may find some of my postings informative.
  • #3,173
  • Mar 30, 2007 11:00am Mar 30, 2007 11:00am
Quoting aicccia
interesting. sounds too nerve-wracking for me.
You're right, Aicccia. Announcement trading is certainly a viable approach to professional trading, but it sure isn't for everyone! It has to be approached like a carefully planned and executed split second military operation. I'm happy to know something about it, based on following the instruction of Thomas Yeoman for a couple of months, and then more recently reading the daily analysis by Felix and following the price action carefully in the light of Elliott Wave, Q Theory and fundamentals. But I'm personally not attracted to this style of trading. It's particularly useful to be aware of, though, for risk mitigation purposes.
  • #3,174
  • Mar 30, 2007 11:16am Mar 30, 2007 11:16am
Hi Itme,

just a quick question - given this current surge, possibly due to news, but imho due to mostly a corrective pattern ending in GBPUSD.

I had a FE 100 possible ABC=Wave 4(or either corrective Wave) end at the 1.9560 area - is Wave 4 over now?
Will confirmation be that we move over 1.9725 that we're in an impulse up again?


Just curious what you think, since you didn't seem to see it coming, even though you seemed to think we were working off a corrective wave -> ending soon?
You did seem to mention "Long GBP/USD at about 1.9575", which would coincide with that projection area I mentioned above.

Best regards,

SeekingLight
Trust price. Know yourself.
  • #3,175
  • Edited 1:09pm Mar 30, 2007 11:27am | Edited 1:09pm
Thursday March 29 at 4:00 ET we said:

Some possible upcoming trade opportunities.

Short USD/CAD at about 1.1675

p.s. - Entry price region not met. The downward trend was resumed in response to CAD favorable and USD negative (sanctions against China) economic data this morning. No, this is impossible, since the downwards trend began before the news was released, at about 3/29/2007 at 212:00 ET.

Friday 3/30
8:30 CAD GDP m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 0.1% 0.2% 0.4%
8:30 CAD IPPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...impact_low.gif 0.9% 0.2% 0.2%r
8:30 CAD RMPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...impact_low.gif 2.6% 0.6% -3.0%

Short EUR/USD at about 1.3400

p.s. - The price of 1.3400 was just met. There may be a bit of further rise, to 1.3410 - 1.3420, before a larger fall. We will study further and try to evolve a viable EW hypothesis.

Long EUR/USD at about 1.3250

p.s. - The price of 1.3290 was the low, so the entry price level was not met.

Sell GBP/USD at about 1.9715

p.s. - This price was recently met. A short trade opportunity is being assessed.

Long GBP/USD at about 1.9575

p.s. - GBP/USD came down to a high probability reversal value at 1.9550, then shot up to 1.9717 in just 3 hours. I was in the process of evaluating the trade opportunity when GBP/USD suddenly shot up.

Short GBP/JPY at 232.00

p.s. - GBP/JPY rose to 231.92, just short of our entry price. We expect it to rise one more time to a new high at about 232.25.

Long GBP/JPY at 225.40 - 227.00
  • #3,176
  • Mar 30, 2007 12:21pm Mar 30, 2007 12:21pm
Quoting SeekingLight
Hi Itme,

just a quick question - given this current surge, possibly due to news [what news? - todays news was primarily USD positive! The fast surge began at 10:10 ET], but imho due to mostly a corrective pattern ending in GBPUSD. [a possible explanation!]

I had a FE 100 possible ABC=Wave 4(or either corrective Wave) end at the 1.9560 area - is Wave 4 over now? [ Yes, possibly, or maybe only A-B of Wave 4 is over ]
Will confirmation be that we move over 1.9725 that we're in an impulse up again? [Yes!!]
Just curious what you think, since you didn't seem to see it coming, even though you seemed to think we were working off a corrective wave -> ending soon?
You did seem to mention "Long GBP/USD at about 1.9575", which would coincide with that projection area I mentioned above. [I expected this long action, but wasn't able to issue a trade signal.]
Best regards,
SeekingLight
I concur with your assessment 100%, SeekingLight!. Good analysis.
  • #3,177
  • Mar 30, 2007 1:01pm Mar 30, 2007 1:01pm
LONDON (AFX) - The dollar turned lower in a sudden reversal of fortunes late in the European session, as a jittery market reacted to speculation of rising tensions in the Middle East.
News of US plans to impose sanctions on some Chinese imports also dented the US currency amid speculation that China will take retaliatory action.
The dollar which had been slowly gaining ground after some strong US data, backtracked on unspecified rumours that US citizens have been ordered to leave Bahrain.
'The dollar slides across the board on a combination of rumours that the US Department has told US citizens to leave Bahrain,' said Ashraf Laidi at CMC Markets.
'The news has further fuelled the risk premium in oil prices, generating the same dollar reaction seen upon the rumours of a military confrontation between the US and Iran earlier this week,' he added.
Jamie Coleman at Thomson IFR Markets echoed the same story, saying that rumours are running wild.
'One making the rounds is that US citizens have been warned to leave Bahrain in preparation for a strike against Iran,' he said.
He was sceptical of the rumour, however.
Laidi said most of the dollar's falls may be due to news that the US will impose heavy sanctions on some Chinese imports.
A US Commerce Department official was reported as saying that the US will impose economic sanctions against China as a way of protecting American paper producers from unfair Chinese government subsidies.
The action will reverse 20 years of US trade policy by treating China, which is classified as a non-market economy, in the same way that other US trading partners are treated in disputes involving government subsidies.
'Whether today's decision will be reversed by the World Trade Organisation or not, it will likely trigger possible retaliatory acts from China such as further diversification of its forex reserves, which will likely hit the US currency,' said Laidi at CMC.
'The existing shaky dollar sentiment in currency markets amid the impact of sub-prime woes and housing slowdown is likely to be reinforced by todays tariff decision,' he added.
Earlier, the dollar had made some ground, finding support from a set of strong US data including a pick-up in a key measure of inflation and consumer spending, signalling that the Fed is right to remain concerned about inflation.
US data today revealed that consumer spending and personal income both rose twice as fast as expected in February, while a key measure of inflation rose at its fastest pace in half a year.
'The real surprise was the increase in spending, having risen by twice the median and comparing to a flat reading on retail sales,' analysts at Thomson's IFR Markets said.
'The US economy and the dollar seem to be telling the market, I'm not dead yet. This is not the sign of an economy getting ready to keel over at any moment,' added Coleman at Thomson IFR.
The US data in question showed incomes rising 0.6 pct in February after increasing by 1.0 pct in the previous month, while spending rose 0.6 pct following a 0.5 pct rise in January.
Meanwhile, inflation as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index rose 0.4 pct in February after rising 0.2 pct in January. In the past year, the PCE price index has risen 2.3 pct.
Core PCE inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is considered by the Federal Reserve to be a better barometer of prices, rose 0.3 pct in the month, the fastest monthly gain since August.
The figures demonstrated just why US rate setters are concerned about inflationary pressures ahead.
After all this week saw US GDP revised up and tough anti-inflationary talk from Fed members.
In Europe, the euro failed to get much of a lift from some strong data, including a pick-up in French business sentiment and a rise in inflation.
Preliminary euro zone inflation data showed the headline rate edging up to 1.9 pct in March from 1.8 pct in February, although many expect the headline figure to be revised later when full information for all the economies are out.
While the data suggest inflation risks remain subdued in the euro zone, it is still consistent with European Central Bank hiking the refi rate up to 4.0 pct from 3.75 pct by mid year, said David Brown at Bear Stearns.
The yen, meanwhile, edged lower after data out of Japan showed February CPI falling in both the headline and core inflation measures. The impact was partly offset by the demand brought on by the repatriation of funds during the last trading day of the Japanese fiscal year.
Japan's core CPI fell 0.1 pct in February from a year earlier, posting its first drop in 10 months, after being unchanged in January. On a month-on-month basis, the core CPI marked its fourth consecutive drop in February, down by 0.3 pct after a 0.4 pct drop in January.
The pound was a touch lower after news that UK consumer confidence remains depressed.
In its monthly survey, GfK/NOP said its main headline consumer confidence index was unchanged at -8 in March, the same as in the previous month and in line with predictions. Four of the five sub-indices that make up the headline measure were unchanged.
The only change was in the question regarding whether now is the right time to make major purchases, which slipped to +2 from +4 in February.
The survey went against the grain of stronger UK data of late. But notably, the pound has not been able to rise despite strengthening rate hike expectations.
'Sterling has failed to capitalise on the stronger than expected mortgage approvals and CBI distributive trades reports,' said Pearson at HBOS.
Focus now shifts to the possibility of a UK rate hike next week. While most watchers expect the BoE to hold fire next Thursday, most also concede that the decision will be close.
According to the AFX News poll, eight out of 32 economists reckon that the Monetary Policy Committee will lift its benchmark rate another quarter point to 5.50 pct. That number will likely increase if next week's purchasing managers' indices of the manufacturing and services sectors come in strong.
Michael Saunders, economist at Citigroup, said it's 50-50 at the moment whether the BoE will hike, but added that a hike will be more likely than not if the PMIs are on the strong side.
And, if April does not, May is likely to deliver the rate increase.

More details here:

Dollar Slips as US Imposes Sanctions on China - More to Come?

http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=22804
  • #3,178
  • Mar 30, 2007 2:13pm Mar 30, 2007 2:13pm
"Yes, possibly, or maybe only A-B of Wave 4 is over "

This is giving me headaches. But i see the same thing here. i was waiting for cable to go to 1.9500 but i didnt.

so maybe we will go there now. or we will be going further up for the final high of the last sequence the wave-5.

itīs really hard to say right now.

but i came only up with an wave-A and a wave-B and still waiting for wave-C of a larger wave-4 of a larger wave-5.

any ideas?
  • #3,179
  • Mar 31, 2007 12:15am Mar 31, 2007 12:15am
Hi Wallboroff, here is my wave count and the possible option that I prefer. But yes, it might just be a mini wave B still and we're yet to see mini wave C down. Correct my chart if you have a better count. Thanks.
Attached Image
Tra-X
  • #3,180
  • Mar 31, 2007 12:25am Mar 31, 2007 12:25am
Quoting Wallboroff
"Yes, possibly, or maybe only A-B of Wave 4 is over "

This is giving me headaches. But i see the same thing here. i was waiting for cable to go to 1.9500 but i didnt.

so maybe we will go there now. or we will be going further up for the final high of the last sequence the wave-5.

itīs really hard to say right now.

but i came only up with an wave-A and a wave-B and still waiting for wave-C of a larger wave-4 of a larger wave-5.

any ideas?
It is very time consuming spending hours in front of charts and speculating when it will or when it will not, I use to do this for many weeks and months, then one day I realized that the pips are already there waiting for us to grab.

Are we making any profits from wave speculations, or do we spend all of our time waiting for the exact moment to enter, and actually miss the pips that fly by?

Just a question.
1 trader viewing now