Thursday 3/29
3:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate 9.2% 9.2% 9.3%
4:00 EUR German Retail PMI 52.8 45.0
4:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals 119K 117K 120K
4:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 11.2B 10.7B
6:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized 32 20 19
6:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Expected 21 18 16
8:00 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30 USD GDP Annualized q/q (r) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif 2.5% 2.2% 2.5% (revised from 2.2%)
8:30 USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (r) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
8:30 USD Unemployment Claims 308K 320K 316K
10:00 USD Fed Governor Kohn Speaks http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif
13:15 CAD BOC Governor Dodge Speaks
18:45 NZD GDP q/q http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 0.9% 0.3%
19:30 JPY Core CPI m/m -0.1% 0.1%
19:30 JPY Tokyo CPI m/m 0.1% -0.2%
19:30 JPY Core Tokyo CPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 0.1% -0.1%
19:30 JPY Overall Household Spending y/y 0.7% 0.6%
19:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI 53
19:30 JPY Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
19:50 JPY Industrial Production m/m (p) -1.0% -1.7%
21:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -1.4%
The UK data released today shows that the UK housing and consumer sectors was still firm during the first quarter. The latest figures on bank lending recorded an increase to GBP11.2bn in February from GBP10.5bn the previous month while mortgage approvals were steady over the month at 119,000 compared with 114,000 the previous year.
The latest CBI consumer spending trends survey reported that the net balance of retailers recording rising sales was +32 compared with +19 in February and this was the strongest monthly report since December 2004. There was also particular strength in housing-related spending areas.
The data will maintain near-term confidence in housing and spending trends which will also support Sterling. The underlying risks are continuing to build, however, with consumer spending still being financed in part through higher borrowing secured on rising house prices.
The overall evidence still suggests that there is substantial speculative excess in the UK property market which will tend to weaken Sterling in the medium term.
8:30 ET USD GDP Annualized q/q (r) 2.5% 2.2% 2.5% (revised from 2.2%)- The dollar strengthened after data showed the US economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the last three months of 2006 than thought previously. The Commerce Department estimated the US economy grew at a 2.5 pct annualised rate between October and December, faster than the 2.2 pct estimated earlier. Economists had expected no revision. 'On the face of it the revision seems positive and the market's reacting accordingly, ' said Mitul Kotecha, head of forex strategy at Caylon. 'However if you look at the detail I think the reaction will be pretty short-lived. Residential investment was down 19.8 pct, equipment and software was down 3.4 pct while a lot of the gains came from inventories,' he added. The dollar gained on major currencies, pushing the euro down to 1.3316 usd from 1.3352 shortly before the data was released. The price of EUR/USD then bounced back up to 1.3346.
8:30 ET USD Unemployment Claims 308K 320K 318K (revised) - The dollar also received a short-lived boost from news the number of newly laid-off workers signing up for unemployment benefits last week declined, suggesting the job market is still in good shape even as the economy goes through a sluggish spell. The Labor Department said new claims filed for unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 308,000. 'The reading is back within the range claims had been tracking since last summer suggesting that the period of elevated readings in February owed to disruptive weather, and that overall the labour market remains stable and fairly tight,' said analysts at Barclays Capital.
Meanwhile, rising oil prices and geopolitical risks weigh on the dollar. Oil prices spiked to $68 per barrel this week amid geopolitical tensions over Iran and trade above $65 today.
3:55 EUR German Unemployment Rate 9.2% 9.2% 9.3%
4:00 EUR German Retail PMI 52.8 45.0
4:30 GBP Mortgage Approvals 119K 117K 120K
4:30 GBP Net Lending to Individuals m/m 11.2B 10.7B
6:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Realized 32 20 19
6:00 GBP CBI Distributive Trades Expected 21 18 16
8:00 EUR ECB President Trichet Speaks
8:30 USD GDP Annualized q/q (r) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif 2.5% 2.2% 2.5% (revised from 2.2%)
8:30 USD GDP Deflator Annualized q/q (r) http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%
8:30 USD Unemployment Claims 308K 320K 316K
10:00 USD Fed Governor Kohn Speaks http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...act_medium.gif
13:15 CAD BOC Governor Dodge Speaks
18:45 NZD GDP q/q http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 0.9% 0.3%
19:30 JPY Core CPI m/m -0.1% 0.1%
19:30 JPY Tokyo CPI m/m 0.1% -0.2%
19:30 JPY Core Tokyo CPI m/m http://www.forexfactory.com/images/m...mpact_high.gif 0.1% -0.1%
19:30 JPY Overall Household Spending y/y 0.7% 0.6%
19:30 JPY Manufacturing PMI 53
19:30 JPY Unemployment Rate 4.0% 4.0%
19:50 JPY Industrial Production m/m (p) -1.0% -1.7%
21:30 JPY Average Cash Earnings y/y -1.4%
The UK data released today shows that the UK housing and consumer sectors was still firm during the first quarter. The latest figures on bank lending recorded an increase to GBP11.2bn in February from GBP10.5bn the previous month while mortgage approvals were steady over the month at 119,000 compared with 114,000 the previous year.
The latest CBI consumer spending trends survey reported that the net balance of retailers recording rising sales was +32 compared with +19 in February and this was the strongest monthly report since December 2004. There was also particular strength in housing-related spending areas.
The data will maintain near-term confidence in housing and spending trends which will also support Sterling. The underlying risks are continuing to build, however, with consumer spending still being financed in part through higher borrowing secured on rising house prices.
The overall evidence still suggests that there is substantial speculative excess in the UK property market which will tend to weaken Sterling in the medium term.
8:30 ET USD GDP Annualized q/q (r) 2.5% 2.2% 2.5% (revised from 2.2%)- The dollar strengthened after data showed the US economy grew at a slightly faster pace in the last three months of 2006 than thought previously. The Commerce Department estimated the US economy grew at a 2.5 pct annualised rate between October and December, faster than the 2.2 pct estimated earlier. Economists had expected no revision. 'On the face of it the revision seems positive and the market's reacting accordingly, ' said Mitul Kotecha, head of forex strategy at Caylon. 'However if you look at the detail I think the reaction will be pretty short-lived. Residential investment was down 19.8 pct, equipment and software was down 3.4 pct while a lot of the gains came from inventories,' he added. The dollar gained on major currencies, pushing the euro down to 1.3316 usd from 1.3352 shortly before the data was released. The price of EUR/USD then bounced back up to 1.3346.
8:30 ET USD Unemployment Claims 308K 320K 318K (revised) - The dollar also received a short-lived boost from news the number of newly laid-off workers signing up for unemployment benefits last week declined, suggesting the job market is still in good shape even as the economy goes through a sluggish spell. The Labor Department said new claims filed for unemployment insurance dropped by a seasonally adjusted 10,000 to 308,000. 'The reading is back within the range claims had been tracking since last summer suggesting that the period of elevated readings in February owed to disruptive weather, and that overall the labour market remains stable and fairly tight,' said analysts at Barclays Capital.
Meanwhile, rising oil prices and geopolitical risks weigh on the dollar. Oil prices spiked to $68 per barrel this week amid geopolitical tensions over Iran and trade above $65 today.