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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #18,981
  • Mar 4, 2009 9:24pm Mar 4, 2009 9:24pm
Hi again all......

I have upgraded all my h1 charts. See my h1 below compare to h4. What can you see from the MAs especially?

Any comment/suggestion is most welcome.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,982
  • Mar 4, 2009 10:23pm Mar 4, 2009 10:23pm
hey Orange,

My opinion as I have mentioned before is to be a little bit cautious here if you are to enter long for a few reasons:

1. Price is around the 200sma on the Daily and might act as resistance
2. The psychological 100.00 price is not that far away and could act as a major resistance.
3. The upward trend has been in effect for about 20 days now and we might see a retracement before moving up again if it wants to move up more.

The bias is definitely to the upside still and I myself am looking for entries but will keep a close eye on my position and also keep my stops tight incase of a reversal.

Thats just my views and I hope others can add as well..
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,983
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:40pm Mar 4, 2009 11:40pm
Quoting time1300
hey Orange,

My opinion as I have mentioned before is to be a little bit cautious here if you are to enter long for a few reasons:

1. Price is around the 200sma on the Daily and might act as resistance
2. The psychological 100.00 price is not that far away and could act as a major resistance.
3. The upward trend has been in effect for about 20 days now and we might see a retracement before moving up again if it wants to move up more.

The bias is definitely to the upside still and I myself am looking for entries but will keep a close eye on...
Thanks for your opinion mate...and for those who are still new to this thread...my dash lines in h1 represent MAs from h4. Hope this helps...
  • #18,984
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:46am Mar 5, 2009 1:46am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi all...
I give it a try for this one....

Entry @ 1.2504
SL @ 1.2544 (5pips above 8ema = 37pips from entry)
TP @ 1.2470 (34pips from entry)
R:r = 1:0.92

We'll see if this work or not...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
Orange,

I hate to say this but, this wasn't your best trade - there are a few indications for this:

1) This is wasn't a high probability trade. The spinning tops which you seen on your 1H were only turning the short term trade from up to neutral not from up to down.

2) You should wait for a candle formation to confirm the short term trend has moved from neutral to down i.e. with a bearish engulfing pattern or dark cloud.

3) If you look at the 4H candle, it almost formed a hammer on that previous down move which could be an indication to the end of the downward trend - therefore into a more neutral box range one.

4) Something which I use outside of the scope of the 4H is when a large bullish or bearish belt holding candle forms (large candle which opens and closes with little or no tails) in the case of the highlighted candle in my picture below if the next candle fails to move lower than the low of the belt hold then you can safely say the market has reaches a level where the bears are not in complete control. What i mean by this is, if the next candle had made a lower low then that would have been an indicator to go short, if not then its an indicator that the trade is about to change from down to neutral.
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  • #18,985
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:46am Mar 5, 2009 2:46am
I wanted to show a great example of our counter trade rules as it has happened on the 4H GBP/USD. As our rules states, when price closes beyond the 21ema after a trend it tends to come back to it before going to the 89sma. As in this case, you can see since Feb. 24 price has been below the 89sma and seemed like it will be in a downward trend. Price would occasionally retrace to the 8 and 21ema but never closed convincingly above the 21ema until a now. As you can see, the 16:00 candle closed above the 21 and the following candle as well. By the next candle, price had retraced back to the 21ema which happened to sit with the 8ema. The following candle after that, price continued its original direction towards the 89sma which happens to sit by the 200sma as well.

I just wanted to point this out for any newcomers and by writing these posts, I remind of the price action and with every post it becomes more and more my heart.


Anyone would like to add to this, please do.

See you guys tomorrow
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Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,986
  • Mar 5, 2009 2:49am Mar 5, 2009 2:49am
Quoting welshguy2000
Orange,

I hate to say this but, this wasn't your best trade - there are a few indications for this:

1) This is wasn't a high probability trade. The spinning tops which you seen on your 1H were only turning the short term trade from up to neutral not from up to down.

2) You should wait for a candle formation to confirm the short term trend has moved from neutral to down i.e. with a bearish engulfing pattern or dark cloud.

3) If you look at the 4H candle, it almost formed a hammer on that previous down move which could be an indication to...
WG,

Thanks but I already noticed that before. I admited it was one of my worse entry. Simply put, I against our rules in this thread. I was not even looking at the price pattern that time. I made the entry just based on ADXcolorBar which was red that time. Silly right? Hope the newbies learn from this. Would never do that again.
  • #18,987
  • Edited 3:35am Mar 5, 2009 3:21am | Edited 3:35am
Quoting time1300
I wanted to show a great example of our counter trade rules as it has happened on the 4H GBP/USD....

Thank you Time for been posting your knowledge. I really like the way you post and your charts as well. I'm a newbie and currently still learning Master Phillip's method on 4H MACD system. Just pocketing 40 pips on gbp/usd after been waiting since this morning.

entry: 1.4174
t/p: 1.4214

Question to time1300:
When you enter 3 lots, do you enter 3 lots on the same price?
And your t/p is it always 20, 55 & 75 respectively no matter on what currencies or is it only on usd/jpy? How about gbp/usd and eur/usd?

to OrangeRange:
I like your charts too now, a way much better than previous one...
  • #18,988
  • Mar 5, 2009 4:59am Mar 5, 2009 4:59am
Hi all...

I will make this simple to all of us here.

H4 Chart
Price making DOUBLE TOP @ res TL (see the pink circles)with the price is currently testing the fib 100.0% again (immediate sup level). The green arrow pointing the candle's long tail which reacting with the said fib, meanwhile MACD window is forming Round Top.

H1 Chart
We can get a clearer view from this time frame as I also have the MAs (dash lines) from h4 in this chart. This helping me to get visual about what is going on to all the MAs in h4 from h1 view.

Overal opinion:- Any significant move by this pair is based on the decision made by Ecb later today. Potential break below fib 100.0% if the rates reduced...otherwise...we'll see another rebounce off the said fib level.

p/s-hammerhead: We always learn from mistakes...and improvise..so that we can move ahead...getting better day by day...welcome to the club

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,989
  • Mar 5, 2009 6:05am Mar 5, 2009 6:05am
Hi all...
I give it a try here...even though it is the craziest decision to trade ahead of the rates announcement. Just wana get the feel during high volatilaty in the market. Win or lose...I am ready to blame/cheers myself.

SL @ 3pips above 21ema
TP @ 50pips from entry (just to get the R:r=1:1)

Opinions/critics are most welcome...!!!

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,990
  • Mar 5, 2009 6:14am Mar 5, 2009 6:14am
hi all,

Dont mind me posting my view. I be glad if someone point out that my decision is not in synch with the 4hr macd rythm. or any. I still learning to further improve my interpretation of the rythm


1) The price since yesterday did not give a short signal when it is in between
8 and 21 ema

2) It closed beyond 21 ema. However did not even go test the 89ma. It come back after trying to test the weekly support. Therefore, It not the end of the down trend yet.

3) The bearish engulfing candle agree down trend. When the macd signal a trigger for a turn around zero. candle closed at 1.2563.

4) I did not enter short as i worried on red resistance line at 1.2540. Alot of
support and resistance on that line. I planning my profit to 1.2500 if it can break the red line. My sl would be at 1.2630(the black support and resistance line).

5) in summary, if i enter short at 1.2563. my sl from entry at 67pips. I need to overcome that 1.2540 which is only 23pips. That is a big obstacles. If it can break away, the profit should be good.

nah. i chicken out. I giving this short trade a miss.
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  • #18,991
  • Mar 5, 2009 6:44am Mar 5, 2009 6:44am
Quoting orangeRANGE
SL @ 3pips above 21ema
TP @ 50pips from entry (just to get the R:r=1:1)
Increasing my SL to 1.2565 (4pips above previous candle high). Might wanna trailing stops if things look good...and maybe let the position open until Friday...
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  • #18,992
  • Mar 5, 2009 7:20am Mar 5, 2009 7:20am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Increasing my SL to 1.2565 (4pips above previous candle high). Might wanna trailing stops if things look good...and maybe let the position open until Friday...
Things not looking good so far. The only good news is ECB lowered their rates. So I put my new TP @ 1.2475 just to get my R:r=1:1. It's 9.30pm now here...I feel sleepy... Can't wait to do the trailing stops....hopefully I will not get stopped out when I wake up tomorrow morning....


Please leave your comments/critics/opinions regarding my entry today. I will read it tomorrow...

Nite2....
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  • #18,993
  • Mar 5, 2009 7:30am Mar 5, 2009 7:30am
Quoting orangeRANGE
H4 Chart
Price making DOUBLE TOP @ res TL (see the pink circles)with the price is currently testing the fib 100.0% again (immediate sup level). The green arrow pointing the candle's long tail which reacting with the said fib, meanwhile MACD window is forming Round Top.

I did not see this green line earlier. The price respects this line. 8 times tested. OrangeRANGE have good eyes.
Sorry my English.
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I am learning English, but still cannot speak well.
  • #18,994
  • Mar 5, 2009 7:58am Mar 5, 2009 7:58am
Quoting time1300
I wanted to show a great example of our counter trade rules as it has happened on the 4H GBP/USD....
Exactly. How amazing the rules are! Rule is rule however, there is an adversely example on USD/CAD. we see price close below 21, pull back to 21 again, then never come down so far. I would like to emphasize patience is very important and we have to wait for clear signal. easy to say but hard to do anyway. Quite often I just can not stay calm.
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  • #18,995
  • Mar 5, 2009 8:13am Mar 5, 2009 8:13am
Quoting fishmen
Exactly. How amazing the rules are! Rule is rule however, there is an adversely example on USD/CAD. we see price close below 21, pull back to 21 again, then never come down so far. I would like to emphasize patience is very important and we have to wait for clear signal. easy to say but hard to do anyway. Quite often I just can not stay calm.
fishmen: Nice observation.

I entered the EU after price came back down below and close below the 21, the first entry. The second entry was from a shorter timeframe so that has nothing to do with the 4hr method.

Time:

Adding to positions within the trend is a great way to generate a lot of pips. But, the thing to remember is that in order to do that, you have to be able to let the initial positions run with the trend. Some of these bull/bear trends can be very strong for a few weeks at a time and the amount you can load up on is huge. The discipline comes from letting the trend work itself out. I've already taken out about 100 pips on that initial entry and I am floating about 80 positive on the last 1/3 of the position. Both of these open positions have stops at break even right not. You might think that 80 pips is a large enough space to let things continue on but I have seen and been in so many positions like this where the price comes back up and I get stopped out. But, there are those occasions where you have that 200, 300..pip ride where you can move the stop somewhere outside of the 21 to give that market room to breathe. I had a 900 pip trade last year where I let the 21 (+ a few) be the stop out point. I wanted the trend to take me out. I was up 1200 at one point but things have to end at some point.

Buying the dips and selling the rallies is THE way to make good money. The EU is doing this right now. It's just a matter of the patience involved, having a wide enough stop to let the trend play out, and having that trend work. These trends happen over and over several times a year for each pair. It's just a matter of waiting for the trend to run,which is will.

Looking for a pullback with the gap to fill...
Attached Image
  • #18,996
  • Mar 5, 2009 8:15am Mar 5, 2009 8:15am
Haizzzzz....Should stick with my 1.2500 profit plan.

No win and also no loss. At least i did not lose.

Next time. damn
  • #18,997
  • Mar 5, 2009 10:09am Mar 5, 2009 10:09am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Things not looking good so far. The only good news is ECB lowered their rates. So I put my new TP @ 1.2475 just to get my R:r=1:1. It's 9.30pm now here...I feel sleepy... Can't wait to do the trailing stops....hopefully I will not get stopped out when I wake up tomorrow morning....


Please leave your comments/critics/opinions regarding my entry today. I will read it tomorrow...

Nite2....
Hi orange, How is u result? price turn upward at 1.2481. Hope u have put a trailing stop.
  • #18,998
  • Mar 5, 2009 10:32am Mar 5, 2009 10:32am
Quoting Palmer
fishmen: Nice observation.

I entered the EU after price came back down below and close below the 21, the first entry. The second entry was from a shorter timeframe so that has nothing to do with the 4hr method.

Time:

Adding to positions within the trend is a great way to generate a lot of pips. But, the thing to remember is that in order to do that, you have to be able to let the initial positions run with the trend. Some of these bull/bear trends can be very strong for a few weeks at a time and the amount you can load up on is huge. The discipline...
Hi palmer, u are the god. thanks for educating us. I would like to point out that there is no close below 21 on orange's 4H chart at the moment u short . What broker do u use?
  • #18,999
  • Mar 5, 2009 12:46pm Mar 5, 2009 12:46pm
Quoting hammerhead
Thank you Time for been posting your knowledge. I really like the way you post and your charts as well. I'm a newbie and currently still learning Master Phillip's method on 4H MACD system. Just pocketing 40 pips on gbp/usd after been waiting since this morning.

entry: 1.4174
t/p: 1.4214

Question to time1300:
When you enter 3 lots, do you enter 3 lots on the same price?
And your t/p is it always 20, 55 & 75 respectively no matter on what currencies or is it only on usd/jpy? How about gbp/usd and eur/usd?

to OrangeRange:
I like your charts too...
Hello Hammerhead:

I welcome your questions as it is from asking questions that we learn everyday. The answer to your question is that I enter 3 lots depending on my money management rules and if a trade allows me to enter 4, then I enter 4 but I seldom trade with less than 3 lots as this allows me to take out my profits in 3 stages. And when I enter it all depends on the price action before I entered and if the previous candle is a big one or not. If the candle is huge and the place where I like to place my stop loss does not allow me to be able to enter 3 lots, then I enter in 3 stages to allow me my stop loss and my 3 entry lots, Otherwise I might enter all 3 at the same price.

My profit targets are set usually with pivot points or support and resistance lines. In all my positions, My profit targets vary on different currencies but follow the same rule. I take out a few pips with my first lot as i do not want to let a 20 pip gain become a loss. IN the Usd/Jpy there is less volatility and I usually take out 20 pips first and i usually take 50 or 60 on the second because that usually comes in connection with a pivot point and the last lot I usually try to let it run and will keep my eye on it so that is how i take my profits out.

In regards to the other pair, the same rules apply but because of their stronger moves, I might take 30 out first, then maybe 75 and so on.....but taking out profits in stages allows you to bank a few pips incase the price turns against you as it can do at any given time. We cannot control the markets.

I hope this answers your questions. Good Luck
Keeping Life Simple
  • #19,000
  • Mar 5, 2009 12:56pm Mar 5, 2009 12:56pm
fishmen:

The close below the 21 was the bar before that white vertical line. I took the next bar only because I was 'awake' and things looked weak. This pair is really following the Dow Jones and when the Dow was down about 120 overnight that weakness added to the short decision as well...

The gap was filled and like I said, even that 80 pip position was stopped out at b/e. I know I could have banked that but thinking about trying to ride one down for a few hundred every once in a while is...fun.

Price came back to the 21 and is turning away from it again. Lot's of time in this candle left so...gotta wait.

I use FXDD, for now, and their current server time is 20:54. Right nowit's 12:54 EST USA. Different brokers have different server times so the 4hr candle closes will look a little different. It always evens out in the wash though....
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