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  • #9,501
  • Mar 4, 2009 10:44pm Mar 4, 2009 10:44pm
What do you guys think about a short at the blue line?
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  • #9,502
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:02pm Mar 4, 2009 11:02pm
Quoting Shermenator
Alright its reacting to my long...later guys I am going to hit up the gym...( Have to stay cute for the girls lol)

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Im curious as to why you guys would buy in a strong downtrend? would'nt it be a higher probability trade if you shorted from the top and had the trend at your back??
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Things can get Real ugly, Real quick!!!
  • #9,503
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:05pm Mar 4, 2009 11:05pm
Quoting G550
What do you guys think about a short at the blue line?
Probably not a high probability trade. Hit that level a few times already.
  • #9,504
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:09pm Mar 4, 2009 11:09pm
Quoting Atltrader
Im curious as to why you guys would buy in a strong downtrend? would'nt it be a higher probability trade if you shorted from the top and had the trend at your back??

Every time frame has its own trend...so different agenadas are being traded....the most important is how you manage the trade
  • #9,505
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:10pm Mar 4, 2009 11:10pm
Quoting Atltrader
Im curious as to why you guys would buy in a strong downtrend? would'nt it be a higher probability trade if you shorted from the top and had the trend at your back??
You have a valid point, regarding the trend. I think the basic tenet of what I do (can't speak for Sherm or anyone else, but I think they will agree) is buying/selling off of these support and resistance lines, even if they are counter trend. Often times the same line will act as both support and resistance and in this case with the Kiwi, that line was formerly support, acted as resistance later and now support again.

This happens quite frequently and works quite well to be honest, irrespective of trend direction. Of course, you probably want to keep a more watchful eye or set a quick take profit and tight stops but that is all discretionary anyways.
  • #9,506
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:11pm Mar 4, 2009 11:11pm
Quoting libb
Probably not a high probability trade. Hit that level a few times already.
So the more the line is hit, the less credible it becomes or the easier it is to surpass it?
  • #9,507
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:19pm Mar 4, 2009 11:19pm
Quoting G550
So the more the line is hit, the less credible it becomes or the easier it is to surpass it?
In general yes, think of it as being chipped away.
  • #9,508
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:20pm Mar 4, 2009 11:20pm
I understand what you are saying.. I suppose it is all up to your risk tolerance and trading style. for scalping this may work, however I prefer to stay with a trade for the long term, hence the reason i use higher time frames to establish the main trend, and then wait for price to reach an area of support or resistance before i pull the trigger. Im new to this tread, and I really like what i see here. I just prefer to trade a higher time frame, and never trade against the overall trend...

Good luck guys! can't wait to learn some more about this style!
Things can get Real ugly, Real quick!!!
  • #9,509
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:20pm Mar 4, 2009 11:20pm
Quoting G550
So the more the line is hit, the less credible it becomes or the easier it is to surpass it?

It depends on how the market gets to the level again....
  • #9,510
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:25pm Mar 4, 2009 11:25pm
Quoting Shermenator
It depends on how the market gets to the level again....
I've heard you mention this before. What exactly do you mean and what would you look for? Are you referring to whether or not price rushes up to or slowly climbs its way there?
  • #9,511
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:45pm Mar 4, 2009 11:45pm
Quoting G550
I've heard you mention this before. What exactly do you mean and what would you look for? Are you referring to whether or not price rushes up to or slowly climbs its way there?
It comes down to price action and timing.

If it hits the resistance line frequently in short periods of time with little retracement, it is a sign of weakness.

If it hits the resistance line frequently over moderate-longer periods of time with higher degrees of retracement, it is a sign that it is a strong resistance.

Again, it is timing and amount of retracement.
  • #9,512
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:57pm Mar 4, 2009 11:57pm
Quoting logiktrader
It comes down to price action and timing.

If it hits the resistance line frequently in short periods of time with little retracement, it is a sign of weakness.

If it hits the resistance line frequently over moderate-longer periods of time with higher degrees of retracement, it is a sign that it is a strong resistance.

Again, it is timing and amount of retracement.
Thanks, man. That makes sense.
  • #9,513
  • Mar 5, 2009 12:20am Mar 5, 2009 12:20am
if you want a no brainer, buy the usd/jpy on the dips. i have been doing it for some time now (since the low 90's). i use low leverage and small lots, but making plenty of $ cause i'm getting most of the pips. trend is definitely up, but beware of nfp on friday.
"i wake up in the morning, and i piss excellence"
  • #9,514
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:03am Mar 5, 2009 1:03am
Quoting G550
I've heard you mention this before. What exactly do you mean and what would you look for? Are you referring to whether or not price rushes up to or slowly climbs its way there?
If price has just hit the level and reverses for only a little time then reverses and goes back up to that level again - that's just stops being hit, and will probably come back down after.
  • #9,515
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:05am Mar 5, 2009 1:05am
Quoting Liquid
If price has just hit the level and reverses for only a little time then reverses and goes back up to that level again - that's just stops being hit, and will probably come back down after.
Thanks for the info, Liquid.
  • #9,516
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:11am Mar 5, 2009 1:11am
Quoting Liquid
If price has just hit the level and reverses for only a little time then reverses and goes back up to that level again - that's just stops being hit, and will probably come back down after.
It depends on the accelerationg your getting and if your not stop hunting ont that timeframe...I will sometimes buy even if its going up as well just depends on the order flow
  • #9,517
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:19am Mar 5, 2009 1:19am
Alright I will move my stop to break even preety soon I will mention when...

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  • #9,518
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:25am Mar 5, 2009 1:25am
Is it true that when trading during Japan session, the S/R levels become less reliable since there are less volume in the market? Not concerning JPY pairs, of course.
  • #9,519
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:43am Mar 5, 2009 1:43am
Well said man.

It really was short and precise.

thanx


Quoting logiktrader
It comes down to price action and timing.

If it hits the resistance line frequently in short periods of time with little retracement, it is a sign of weakness.

If it hits the resistance line frequently over moderate-longer periods of time with higher degrees of retracement, it is a sign that it is a strong resistance.

Again, it is timing and amount of retracement.
  • #9,520
  • Mar 5, 2009 1:56am Mar 5, 2009 1:56am
Quoting G550
Thanks, man. That makes sense.
"If it hits the resistance line frequently over moderate-longer periods of time with higher degrees of retracement, it is a sign that it is a strong resistance"

BRV always used to say when you have a level that has reacted well before he wants plenty of time to elapse for 'everyone to notice it' before price gets there again. So when it does there will be plenty of Sell orders sat there ready to be triggered.
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