- #9,493
- Mar 4, 2009 4:50pm Mar 4, 2009 4:50pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,996 Posts
Watching for a EUR/USD short around the 2.268 range
Yep completly agree...its still to early for me but I iwll defently be looking for that as well..
I have been reading through the thread with great interest and have spent all day on the no brainer trades blog. I feel like the no brainer part refers to me, because I’m missing something here.
Please see this GBPUSD image.
I have drawn the levels on and note that there seems to be 3 possible levels, one of which is the 1.4292 level which corresponds with the 50% fib quite closely. That looks to be the best level. Also price went through the lower line at 1.4157 today. I’m guessing that did not hold as just too close. But would that even qualify as a level? Also the level at 1.4366 is close to the 61% as well. The problem I’m having is which level do you pick? If you pick the 1.4292 level at the 50% fib and you are wrong, there is about 80 pips up to the next level of 1.4366 where the 61% fib is near. Maybe that won’t hold as well? You could potentially keep fading these levels and keep getting stopped out. So the problem I’m having is which one do you pick? What am I not seeing here? Am I picking the wrong levels and why?
Now on the Euro Image:
I have drawn a level at 1.2690 and 1.2677 the 50% fib is at 1.2677. This looks like a great place to short but the Euro has not made it up to there. When I look back there seems to be lots of times that the euro turns up to 50 pips before it reaches the levels. In this case it was 20 pips +-. Is there any way to handle that problem? It seems to do it a lot on the euro as noted on the bottom image. I would appreciate any help on these matters or point me to better details on thread. Thanks a lot in advance. Maybe this is just a sometimes thing and you just have to live with it?
Please see this GBPUSD image.
I have drawn the levels on and note that there seems to be 3 possible levels, one of which is the 1.4292 level which corresponds with the 50% fib quite closely. That looks to be the best level. Also price went through the lower line at 1.4157 today. I’m guessing that did not hold as just too close. But would that even qualify as a level? Also the level at 1.4366 is close to the 61% as well. The problem I’m having is which level do you pick? If you pick the 1.4292 level at the 50% fib and you are wrong, there is about 80 pips up to the next level of 1.4366 where the 61% fib is near. Maybe that won’t hold as well? You could potentially keep fading these levels and keep getting stopped out. So the problem I’m having is which one do you pick? What am I not seeing here? Am I picking the wrong levels and why?
Now on the Euro Image:
I have drawn a level at 1.2690 and 1.2677 the 50% fib is at 1.2677. This looks like a great place to short but the Euro has not made it up to there. When I look back there seems to be lots of times that the euro turns up to 50 pips before it reaches the levels. In this case it was 20 pips +-. Is there any way to handle that problem? It seems to do it a lot on the euro as noted on the bottom image. I would appreciate any help on these matters or point me to better details on thread. Thanks a lot in advance. Maybe this is just a sometimes thing and you just have to live with it?
Petebird,
Nice start so far, but it would help to become MUCH pickier. Ask yourself, is this OBVIOUS to everyone looking at this chart or not? Especially in these recent consolidation markets. I took only 8 or so confluence scalps in the entire month of January, but 100% winners. Just be picky and take the obvious confluence that everyone else will see. No "hunting" for levels. Here is an example of a Euro scalp I called in our group earlier today:
Note how well respected the 1.2660 level has been, and how the 38.2% is within a couple pips of it. Our trade was at 1.2658 and it had a 5 pip drawdown and a 60 pip run.
My thread has more examples that might help. Also lose the Keltner channels and switch to a bar chart with colored bars like mine. Much easier to see S/R.
Cheers,
hxcjf
Nice start so far, but it would help to become MUCH pickier. Ask yourself, is this OBVIOUS to everyone looking at this chart or not? Especially in these recent consolidation markets. I took only 8 or so confluence scalps in the entire month of January, but 100% winners. Just be picky and take the obvious confluence that everyone else will see. No "hunting" for levels. Here is an example of a Euro scalp I called in our group earlier today:
Note how well respected the 1.2660 level has been, and how the 38.2% is within a couple pips of it. Our trade was at 1.2658 and it had a 5 pip drawdown and a 60 pip run.
My thread has more examples that might help. Also lose the Keltner channels and switch to a bar chart with colored bars like mine. Much easier to see S/R.
Cheers,
hxcjf
- #9,498
- Mar 4, 2009 9:02pm Mar 4, 2009 9:02pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,996 Posts
Alright I am long in the nzdusd ....
- #9,499
- Mar 4, 2009 9:08pm Mar 4, 2009 9:08pm
- Joined Jan 2008 | Status: Trader | 2,996 Posts
Alright its reacting to my long...later guys I am going to hit up the gym...( Have to stay cute for the girls lol)
