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  • #181
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:22pm Mar 3, 2009 5:22pm
Quoting traderathome
My current EU trade: 4 small components, 1 left over from previous session and still a loser. The other 3 struggling to be profitable. Now why do I keep entering long, and then having to add as it moves down? I still see volume favoring the lows, making be think this is under spread out accumulation.....and that eventually we will get a good and substantial run up. Meanwhile, my nerves are shot!
Now this #%*! trade has 6 components. I'll be fine when it turns, but this is happening over and over recently in my trading. As long as it turns (and the components are very small so the trade can run deep negative) it'll produce good pips, as the previous ones have. But it is h*ll on the psychic.....
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  • #182
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:30pm Mar 3, 2009 5:30pm
Quoting traderathome
Now this #%*! trade has 6 components. I'll be fine when it turns, but this is happening over and over recently in my trading. As long as it turns (and the components are very small so the trade can run deep negative) it'll produce good pips, as the previous ones have. But it is h*ll on the psychic.....
If I were you.& I'm not, Hopefully 1.2560 would return a TP level.
  • #183
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:50pm Mar 3, 2009 5:50pm
Quote
Now this #%*! trade has 6 components. I'll be fine when it turns, but this is happening over and over recently in my trading. As long as it turns (and the components are very small so the trade can run deep negative) it'll produce good pips, as the previous ones have. But it is h*ll on the psychic.....

What if it never turns back? You don't use a stoploss?
  • #184
  • Mar 3, 2009 6:32pm Mar 3, 2009 6:32pm
I went ahead and closed the remainder of the short at 2505. Like Rabid, I don't think these levels will hold either just yet, much as I'd like to see them do so.

I'm going to call it an early night here and see what the morrow brings, hang onto my gains, my hat, and cheat the borker out of a second hand...

Careful trades all, I might check in later tonite to see what's up.
FUBAR...
  • #185
  • Mar 3, 2009 6:48pm Mar 3, 2009 6:48pm
Quoting ak4x
...
night night bud.
1.2385 next "small" bounce.

Heading for ~1.1850 after hesitating around 1.2200
  • #186
  • Mar 3, 2009 8:45pm Mar 3, 2009 8:45pm
Quoting Rabid
What if it never turns back? You don't use a stoploss?
One thing about the forex market.....you can count on the professional trading desks to wallop the PA up and down hundreds of pips whether it is ranging, or trending......it is how they make their money. But the only way to stay in the trade is to enter small, add small and far apart, and all in such a quantity that even hundreds of pips against each component will not be close to causing account liquidation......THAT is the key. You must stay in to be in when the wind turns and blows in your direction. After that, will you win big, just break even, or even have a loss (though not as bad as at the bottom)? One can never know, but from experience I can tell you that EVERY losing trade could have been a winner, if I had not over leveraged!

Remove overleveraging the account from the equation and time and patience will bring an overwhelming number of "losing trades" to nice profit.....(this is from experience).

If any have other viewpoints, the door is open......
  • #187
  • Edited 9:05pm Mar 3, 2009 8:54pm | Edited 9:05pm
Here is an interesting observation. Looking at the volume on a 15M chart for EurUsd, the volume that accompanied the two "bottoming" candles was greater in each of those two 15 minute periods (and remember, this was early asian session) than in ANY PERIOD THROUGHOUT the PREVIOUS TWO COMPLETE trading sessions!

What does THAT tell you??????

It tells me......uh......oh......(gosh).......oh yes, BUY LOW!

Edit: One can make the case, from much such observations these recent few days, that there is planned accumulation (building of longside positions) taking place on an unhurried schedule. And PA is occassionally manipulated to shake out longs and to persuade others to short......so the Central banks and hedge funds can acquire additions to their longside trade. One can make the case FOR shorting, too. Forex PA is very unpredictable. Only one thing is certain, and that is the PA will traverse mucho pips over time, in both directions, as it trends, and as it ranges. The big money boys MUST keep the PA moving.....that is how they make their daily, weekly $$$$ goals. And they cannot just keep moving it in one direction as they MUST keep enough trades on BOTH sides of the PA to enable continuation of the market. Bouncing the PA guarantees both sides remain well populated.
  • #188
  • Mar 4, 2009 1:13am Mar 4, 2009 1:13am
Hi guys,
on a daily basis the level 2541 can be taken as a very important level...
This is the lower band of an uptrend channel.

This does not mean that I change my negative approach.
I still believe that we will see important min.

Personally, I expect 1,2344

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The best thing that can happen to you is to find out where you're wrong.
  • #189
  • Edited 6:16am Mar 4, 2009 5:12am | Edited 6:16am
Maybe time for a last chart here before I have to take things apart for new internet and cable service coming today...

The white UTL has been working fairly well for me. It's not exact and gets penetrated now and then, but has been a good reference for me. the red LTL is a hard one.

In this kind of PA, I concluded some time back that "exact" lines or at least a mentality that puts to much weight on them can be a detriment. We've some of us gotten use to market conditions that were a little more neat and precise and we got used to figuring "to the pip" for quite a while.

Well it's a knife fight now, and the moves are what they are when they need to be at the time, and sometimes not even that, just pure Basic Instinct reaction. So, if my Line gets whacked by a pip or 50 (especially on a longer TF) but comes back into the "zone" in a reasonable length of time, I don't necessarily toss it over that.

But I am confident that whether Zone or Pip, the market will be standing long after none of us are if we ever forget that it is what it is.

In a way, I'm glad I'm out of the Scrum today, altho I might have to visit the Bakery later...

CHART ---> White UTL ain't that far overhead, converging with DP more or less. Price currently at 1hr Upper BB, I'd expect at least the Central (green line) and or vicinity of DP to Turn or Delay the offense... the result of that encounter could be telling for the day.

Closed my short last night in order to not see profits erode away.. Careful trades to all.
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FUBAR...
  • #190
  • Edited 7:00am Mar 4, 2009 5:19am | Edited 7:00am
Quoting traderathome
Now this #%*! trade has 6 components. I'll be fine when it turns, but this is happening over and over recently in my trading. As long as it turns (and the components are very small so the trade can run deep negative) it'll produce good pips, as the previous ones have. But it is h*ll on the psychic.....
EU now at trendline, having broken it. Since EJ has rebounded 200+ pips, maybe EU also has more to go.

Edit: PA stalled at trendline (around 1.2580s), and so may pullback to the half-number area (1.2550s) at least, before more upside.....or,it could pullback and then just go on down again! Arrrrg! Anyway, Asian session torpedoed it (they are good at this of late), where VERY high volume came in at the very lows of the torpedo. PA then moved up to trend mid-line, where high volume consolidation (MORE BUYING) took place. Then (with all that buying, of course) it popped. So, where to from here? I still believe all that we are seeing is just part of an extended "in no hurry" accumulation with PA manipulation to encourage longs to sell to the professional traders, and then to sell to them more by shorting. But this is just an opinion. My long trade remains for the time being.
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  • #191
  • Edited 6:56am Mar 4, 2009 5:30am | Edited 6:56am
Here's my current Daily chart...

Price is just tapping and slightly bending the Lower BB (std settings), tapped and bounced off the -38% level with conviction, (but the day ain't over), and seriously busted the 2500 Historical level (Pink line from my Weekly).

I like we're still taking out important Support, I don't like trading from the middle of the Range (red TL's). The Yellow LTL anchors from the Jan 21 Low and defines things a little bit better and gives us a closer angled Support line to watch, but honestly, those are just reference for me... the Hzl lines Rule right now imo (such as Fibs and historical S/R on longer TF's)

I would STRONGLY recommend newer traders watching this thread to check out Clockworks new Silent Service thread at http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=155431

Start at the beginning and read ALL of his early posts, many of the other replies can be skipped, once you get caught up you can follow along as he goes. You'll be grateful you did some day down the Road when you look back...

Chart... I'd "like" to see price test the UTL and 11sma shown with the shaded circle... but breaking serious S/R levels can create some serious momentum...
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FUBAR...
  • #192
  • Mar 4, 2009 8:41am Mar 4, 2009 8:41am
Quoting ak4x
Here's my current Daily chart...

Price is just tapping and slightly bending the Lower BB (std settings), tapped and bounced off the -38% level with conviction, (but the day ain't over), and seriously busted the 2500 Historical level (Pink line from my Weekly).

I like we're still taking out important Support, I don't like trading from the middle of the Range (red TL's). The Yellow LTL anchors from the Jan 21 Low and defines things a little bit better and gives us a closer angled Support line to watch, but honestly, those are just reference for...
"I like we're still taking out important Support...."

Ak4x, maybe we are not. And based upon Clockwork's method, we may be at a S&R line that needs to be thought of as a zone/band area of S&R. So, based upon the Week chart which shows significance to approximate levels 1.2584 and 1.2324, which might be thought of as 1.2600 and 1.2300, the PA is simply dancing in one of the EU's significant S&R zones. Resolution of direction and zone break would be the next step in trading.....right?
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  • #193
  • Mar 4, 2009 8:44am Mar 4, 2009 8:44am
And speaking of breaks.....

They may be letting EU out of the barn......
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  • #194
  • Mar 4, 2009 9:07am Mar 4, 2009 9:07am
Quote
If any have other viewpoints, the door is open......

Wow, yea, I don't trade that way at all. I couldn't sleep at night if I did that, I'd always be worried that all of my losers would stay losers.

Quote
It tells me......uh......oh......(gosh)..... ..oh yes, BUY LOW!

Hehe. Sounds like what I was talking about last week, but got out when it was obvious the timing wasn't right. Personally I'll wait for price action on the weekly to reflect the change before reconsidering that trade.
  • #195
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:12pm Mar 4, 2009 6:12pm
Just thought I would mention it.

Thanks AK for, a thread that is serious about, staying on track.

Let's keep it that way...
  • #196
  • Mar 4, 2009 6:37pm Mar 4, 2009 6:37pm
Little late getting chart posted after the 5pm close, but new internet service had a hiccup, all's well and I'm a happy camper atm. Price has since dropped from the time of chart shot to 2600ish...

Quoting ak4x
I'd "like" to see price test the UTL and 11sma shown with the shaded circle...
I got my wish. I was offline all day but got back up just in time to catch the last few minutes of the 2660 area. As soon as my new pivots came up at 4pm CST and I saw price was sitting on M3 and struggling I was in and caught it right at 2659 which is running a'rd 60 atm.

I like the hard retrace to the 11sma (blue dotted line) and the UTL. I have another secondary UTL up a'rd 2700/50ish as well that price could easily reach if it's so inclined, but I think it would take another day of the DOW rally holding to see that, if FO/LO doesn't manage it on their own (unlikely imo).

The 4hr is looking good for shorts as well, and not so bullish atm... Currently stalled at 62% of the move up from the bottom. 50% level is only a few pips above the 2550 level and I'd say that's a good waiting area while things sort out... I'll re-evaluate at that point.

Looking to hold this one for awhile unless the market says otherwise...
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FUBAR...
  • #197
  • Mar 4, 2009 7:06pm Mar 4, 2009 7:06pm
The one hour may define the evening ahead... Breaks either way from here could be telling for the week even...

I like a target zone down a'rd the 50% or a little lower to a'rd 2540ish based on previous S/R action (shaded circles).

The 50% level is strong tho with convergence of M2 and is a decent S/R level by itself, I'm edging a little lower as the prevailing down trend is a factor as well...

Very open to thoughts ahead of the rate news and heavy US news in the morning and NFP... What (if anything) are we missing so far?

One other thought here, is the 2600 is a strong level as well, and if this doesn't move soon, then we could easily be camped out here all night, but I'm still looking for that crazy strong 2550 level...
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FUBAR...
  • #198
  • Edited 11:00pm Mar 4, 2009 9:51pm | Edited 11:00pm
Quoting traderathome
"I like we're still taking out important Support...."

Ak4x, maybe we are not. And based upon Clockwork's method, we may be at a S&R line that needs to be thought of as a zone/band area of S&R....

Resolution of direction and zone break would be the next step in trading.....right?
Sorry for the delay in replying... I should have clarified I was primarily talking about Support levels on lower TF's such as 4hr and lower... Clearly, the Big Kahuna 2500 level was busted good, but as there was no break and hold below, it has less weight than if it had consolidated it's position below the level (imo).

Still, a massive penetration of 50 pips can takeout a load of stops. That would certainly give me pause if I was position Long and wanted a stop at 2440 or so, as it's suddenly looking a lot more vulnerable at these levels.

The direction and zone break question is a good one... but I'm going to evade answering directly you as to it being the "next step" for a couple reasons...

First is that I'm completely certain I understood what you were asking about "next"...

The other is that's nearly a 250 pip wide zone you've painted and I'm not trading that long of a TF... I could get Old and End happy trading a 250 pip channel... so I'm trading away in the meantime, and waiting/watching to see what happens "next", so yes in that sense, you're right... told you i would be evasive...

Regarding Clockwork's posts, his basic S/R thoughts are extremely close to mine, but I'm pretty sure I trade much smaller TF's right now in my trading Journey. He's "stalking" a particular trade, maybe for days, I'm in more of a hit and run "Guerilla Warfare" mode most times. The same principles apply tho or can be adapted somewhat, and they're invaluable as far as I'm concerned.

Part of the value of his thread is that he's discussing all that in such an exhaustive manner... no stone unturned, and it's a Gold Mine for folks that don't "see" those zones on their charts yet, and are willing to dig and pan.

Hope that all makes sense..
FUBAR...
  • #199
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:48pm Mar 4, 2009 11:48pm
Quoting ak4x
Sorry for the delay in replying... I should have clarified I was primarily talking about Support levels on lower TF's such as 4hr and lower... Clearly, the Big Kahuna 2500 level was busted good, but as there was no break and hold below, it has less weight than if it had consolidated it's position below the level (imo).

Still, a massive penetration of 50 pips can takeout a load of stops. That would certainly give me pause if I was position Long and wanted a stop at 2440 or so, as it's suddenly looking a lot more vulnerable at these levels.

The...
Yes, it all makes sense. And when I asked about "next" I had this in mind:

Given that Weekly S&R levels, converted actually to "zones" are of major importance. Given that within those zones goes on the spread out position building activities of the "professional trading desks"......lots of up/down manipulation to coax others to give up what they need to get. Given that when they are done, they will give 'er a wack on the rump and sent it off...one direction or the other....to the next zone. And seeing which way they send it was what I had in mind with the "next".
  • #200
  • Mar 4, 2009 11:53pm Mar 4, 2009 11:53pm
Quick note before knocking off here... 15m to the london open, price is stalled at 2600 still. I've scalped a few here and there, but would have been better off sleeping. We wound up camped out here after all.

My 4h closes in 15m and it's pretty inconclusive really... my guess is waiting on ecb rate and us labor news in the am. london may decide early and do something but.... ??

Trapped between 21sma, daily pivot, a long term 14% fib level, TL's, everything but the kitchen sink. Trade careful...
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FUBAR...
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