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Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #81
  • Mar 3, 2009 6:00am Mar 3, 2009 6:00am
Quoting strat



Strange how old timers are wise beyond their years!

Thank you, Jacko.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Old timers??!!!......Ouch !!! LOL

.
Jacko
  • #82
  • Mar 3, 2009 6:50am Mar 3, 2009 6:50am
Strat,

How long do you leave your pending orders active? Thanks for posting your opinions. I find your analysis and method uncomplicated, especially for a newbie like myself.

LJ
  • #83
  • Mar 3, 2009 7:59am Mar 3, 2009 7:59am
Quoting strat
I am a professional trader. My job is to take risk. If I manage my losses and let my profits run I will be successful. Because I am a professional trader, I will forgive myself easily for making mistakes and move on to new opportunities. I feel great that I have the discipline to control my emotions and the patience required to be a professional trader. I am a professional trader and will make $1,000,000 by year end. I will achieve this by following my trading plan, setting achievable goals, and controlling my emotions. I am confident and believe...
I was just cruising through some FF forums while waiting for some trade setups.. came across this.. and had to print it out and put it on my desk, mirror, etc. absolutely brilliant. reading this will be part of my morning routine now.
- nick andre -
  • #84
  • Mar 3, 2009 9:26am Mar 3, 2009 9:26am
Hi,

i'm new here in FF, but trading 3 years in live account now.

I will follow this thread
  • #85
  • Mar 3, 2009 10:08am Mar 3, 2009 10:08am
Hey Strat,

Good to see you've started your thread. Looking forward to your education.

Bloom
  • #86
  • Mar 3, 2009 10:31am Mar 3, 2009 10:31am
Hello Strat
Do you have this support line? Is it every going to go ... I'm trying to be patient
I know the weekly doesn't make it look promising.
Nic
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: eurusd daily.gif Size: 22 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: eu daily.gif Size: 20 KB
  • #87
  • Mar 3, 2009 10:40am Mar 3, 2009 10:40am
Quoting jacko
Old timers??!!!......Ouch !!! LOL

.
Jacko
Jacko, me old mate,

I was referring to Thomas Jefferson - compared to me, you're still a young pup!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #88
  • Mar 3, 2009 10:44am Mar 3, 2009 10:44am
Just wanted to share something with the group.

A while back I was PM'ing with Strat. He asked me some questions about trading, one of which being what I understood about price action. My answer was, quite obviously (now), one of complete non-understanding. Strat didn't reply again. I don't blame him.

So what did I do. Well I went out and found out about it. It's easy really. Open google, or yahoo, or ask, or whatever your preferred search engine and type in "price action trading". Hey presto! A multitude of websites discussing the topic. Then - do some reading.

So firstly thanks Strat for not replying. It got me to do some research.

And second, newbies (or not so), if you don't know about something, google it first. Don't sulk about it.

cheers, and great thread Strat.

TonyH
  • #89
  • Mar 3, 2009 11:12am Mar 3, 2009 11:12am
Quoting elitejets
Hello Strat
Do you have this support line? Is it every going to go ... I'm trying to be patient
I know the weekly doesn't make it look promising.
Nic
If it doesn't succeed in going lower much sooner then we could be looking at a reversal. It would form a W bottom at recent lows. Two plays to go with there, depending on your risk tolerance level:

Aggressive - Enter on the first bullish engulfing candle. Risky because it could turn around on you but it will pay you off big if it works.

Conservative - Look for price to take out the middle swing of the W (roughly 1.2900ish - not in front of charts so just eyeballing yours). That's the confirmation for a safer trade but at the cost of missing 300 pips or so.

So really, EUR/USD is sitting on a trade either way at the moment as I see it.
  • #90
  • Edited 11:45am Mar 3, 2009 11:32am | Edited 11:45am
Quoting elitejets
Hello Strat
Do you have this support line? Is it every going to go ... I'm trying to be patient
I know the weekly doesn't make it look promising.
Nic
Good morning Nicola,
See attached chart.
Patience, as well as discipline, is the difference between a profitable trader and a losing trader so just keep waiting until the opportunity presents itself.

The aqua lines are major support and the magenta lines are minor support so you can see that there is support from 1.2500 to 1.2425 which, to me, is what is keeping this thing afloat.

Now if I ignore Dr. Joe's teachings to me, we have good downward momentum BUT the Daily cycles are up. The Daily 20 is below the 50 and the Weekly 20 is below it's 50 telling us both Daily and Weekly trends are down. We are also within a couple of days of resolution of the first triangle so a break out from that, providing it's not a fake, is the way to go.
The price bars and volume are not giving out any clues which confirms a lack of direction although today is putting in an outside bearish engulfing bar but we cannot count that until the bar closes at 5pm NY time.

I don't understand your comments on the Weekly because that is really telling us more than the Daily - see chart.

Week ending Feb 20 produced a strong hammer reversal bar forming a potential swing low on higher than average volume telling us that the buyers had won the fight with the sellers. The next week saw the buyers firmly put in their place by an even stronger down bar on even higher volume. So far, the Feb 20 is holding as a swing low (but it's only Tuesday) but, again, apologies to Dr. Joe, although the weekly momentum is down, it is in an up cycle so we have both the Daily and Weekly fighting internal cycles.

The failure of both the Daily and Weekly to move up within their up cycle tells us that the downward selling pressure is too great and once we turn into the down cycle, then, all hell could be let loose.

That aside, we cannot ignore the fact that the support below is very strong which tells us two things:

1) If it breaks, we could be on our way down to 1.1700

or

2) If it holds, it could just turn around and head back up to the 50% retrace or somewhere near the previous high

I have no bias towards either and will wait until it reveals itself or until Jacko comes up with some divine funny mental inspiration!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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Click to Enlarge Name: eurusdmar0309weekly.gif Size: 26 KB
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #91
  • Mar 3, 2009 11:35am Mar 3, 2009 11:35am
Quoting thegunslinger
If it doesn't succeed in going lower much sooner then we could be looking at a reversal....
Hello tgs,

You were doing your post at the same time I was doing mine and yet again, we agree. We are getting a bit like an old married couple - surely there has to come a time when we disagree?

Many thanks for your input it is highly valued and appreciated.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #92
  • Mar 3, 2009 11:39am Mar 3, 2009 11:39am
Quoting lijohn
Strat,

How long do you leave your pending orders active? Thanks for posting your opinions. I find your analysis and method uncomplicated, especially for a newbie like myself.

LJ
No set rule, lijohn, it all depends how price action is developing.

If I entered an order anticipating a sell and then next day the sentiment changed or price action started to hint at buys then I pull the order immediately. It also depends where the price closed relative to support and resistance.

Sorry it's not the answer you are looking for but that's the way it is for me.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #93
  • Mar 3, 2009 11:57am Mar 3, 2009 11:57am
Quoting Baba G
Strat did you have your fingers crossed? I got stopped out for a big 0 profit oh well...new balls please G
Sorry, mate, which pair?

Come on, you know that getting stopped out for 0 is the next best thing to a profit!

Tennis player eh?

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #94
  • Edited Mar 4, 2009 12:34pm Mar 3, 2009 1:23pm | Edited Mar 4, 2009 12:34pm
Post # 52
""The Yen pairs are looking more and more like profit taking to me so I am looking for an add-on quickie 1700 pips if I can get filled around 97.00ish on USDJPY. You can't beat a quickie!""



Well my "quickie" is turning out longer than expected! I expected an exhaustion spike up to 100 but because the upward momentum is continuing as strong as ever, I'm still in.

Since I see a long term cycle topping and a shorter cycle beginning it's move up, I'm going to ride the shorter cycle (Ride, Sally, Ride). I'm tempted to think it could make a run for 100.20 (Weekly 50) but today's action (price and volume) is not inspiring plus there is that HUGE psycho factor of 100.

I'll keep stopping by to check the Daily (not H4, I don't trade H4 - too fast for me!)

Rock n Roll'
Strat

Wednesday March 4th:
So much for the strong resistance! I was thinking I may have to change my 99.87 TP order to let it run but a plan is a plan. Also, I still have my "quickie" running from 97.80 and with upward momentum showing no signs of easing off, let's see where it takes us. Profits locked in on initial trade and the "quickie" already moved to BE. This is the fun part of trading.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #95
  • Mar 3, 2009 1:49pm Mar 3, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting strat

Many thanks for your input it is highly valued and appreciated.

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Thanks for the compliments. I'll continue to post my little quips of insight into the markets as I see them. It's reassuring to know that I'm not wacko and my analysis lines up with others. Now I just have to get the execution part down pat.
  • #96
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:02pm Mar 3, 2009 5:02pm
AUDUSD:
The shorter term up cycle is keeping me out of selling below today's bar. Momentum is still down, price has been rejected by the 20, price and volume combination are good for lower prices - everything is down except that shorter cycle.

In my younger days I would have taken it but now I'm still waiting for a close below the trend line at 0.6270. Hmm, that's 80 pips I'm letting go - but better to be safe than sorry.

EURGBP:
After 9 touches to resistance at 0.8970, and with upward Momentum fading, everything is lining up to say goodbye.

Sell order in place at 0.8920 with daylight down to 0.8770

All JPY pairs same as my earlier posts

EURUSD:
I'm sorely tempted to put in my sell order at 1.2493 but my gut is saying not yet. The bearish outside engulfing bar has not been rejected by resistance and instead is being propped up by support. It really looks to me like it's going up to 1.2800ish at the downtrend line of the smaller triangle at which point it would be a good sell (back down to where it's at now).

GBPCHF:
Huge fight going on between the sellers and buyers but downward momentum is increasing which suggests lower prices. This is an Inside Bar and although it's being rejected by minor resistance is not telling us enough to act on it.

GBPUSD:
Downward momentum increasing with a bearish (price and volume) inside bar. If it can clear the next minor support at 1.3950 it could run to major support at 1.3650
Sell order in place at 1.3940

USDCAD:
Don't think about shorts with USDCAD, upward momentum is STILL increasing. (Sorry Nicola, your looney is still weakening).

USDCHF:
Upward momentum increasing but 3 out of 4 cycles topping - looks like it needs a rest - still looking for direction from EURUSD (aren't we all!)

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #97
  • Mar 3, 2009 5:19pm Mar 3, 2009 5:19pm
Quoting strat
USDCAD:
Don't think about shorts with USDCAD, upward momentum is STILL increasing. (Sorry Nicola, your looney is still weakening).

Rock n Roll,
Strat

What did you base this analysis on, if you dont mind me asking? Im still trying to extract all the information the market is giving me, while looking at my charts and would love some insight as to how you came to your conclusion.

Thanks
  • #98
  • Edited 5:51pm Mar 3, 2009 5:49pm | Edited 5:51pm
Quoting BWise
What did you base this analysis on, if you dont mind me asking? Im still trying to extract all the information the market is giving me, while looking at my charts and would love some insight as to how you came to your conclusion.

Thanks
This is how I see it and ONLY my opinion (I've been wrong, so very wrong, many, many times!) so please take it with a bucket of salt!

The Weekly is in a strong upward trend. Momentum is increasing although 3 out of 4 cycles are topping out.

The Daily is in an upward trend though not as strong as Weekly also with 3 out of 4 cycles topping and momentum increasing.

I'm guessing this period we have gone through from October 2008 is a complex wave 4 meaning there COULD be higher prices ahead (there is always the possibility of a failed 5th wave).

Volume is increasing way above average on these latest bars supporting the move.

The buyers are so strong that they finally blew through a major resistance area at 1.2700 to 1.2770, minor resistance at 1.2850 and today, bouncing off minor resistance at 1.2975

If you go back to your physics days, think of what happens to a body in motion and that is exactly what is happening to the USDCAD.

Now there is more major resistance at the psycho number of 1.3000 and at 1.3125 - will this be strong enough to stop it? I don't know.

What I do know is that you do not think of going against a strong trend - we need to see signs that it has run out of steam. What we should really be looking for is a place to add on or enter.

Hope this helps.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #99
  • Edited 8:37pm Mar 3, 2009 5:53pm | Edited 8:37pm
Quoting BWise
What did you base this analysis on, if you dont mind me asking? Im still trying to extract all the information the market is giving me, while looking at my charts and would love some insight as to how you came to your conclusion.

Thanks
Here's what I see. Notes on the lines - purple are major (daily) S/R and yellow are minor (4H) S/R. Notice how the last 3 attempts at taking out this resistance approached it really fast and then pulled away just as quick? This time price is approaching that level much more methodically. Volume is also steadily increasing which shows this is actively being bought and is not just due to a lack of sellers.

Strat - I'm with you on the EUR. Today's candle (falling hammer) is just another sign that points to down though.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: 2009-03-03_daily.jpg Size: 135 KB
  • #100
  • Mar 3, 2009 7:12pm Mar 3, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting strat
USDCAD:
Don't think about shorts with USDCAD, upward momentum is STILL increasing. (Sorry Nicola, your looney is still weakening).

Rock n Roll,
Strat
No offense. I live in CAD but I earn in USD so this would be just fine.
The more I look at it the more I think we will break up through the 1.30 and keep going to 1.40 over the next few weeks.
So I am hopefully agreeing with you and Gunslinger (I really appreciate your posts, thank you!!).
If the US sneezes we catch a cold.
Nicola
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