Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading | Page 3 | Forex Factory

Options

Go to
Permalinks
Print Thread

Similar Threads

Strat's PASR Long Term, Stress Free Trading 18,592 replies

M5 PASR Trend Trading Strat 95 replies

What you need for trading: indis, a strat & good music 27 replies

Another way to stress free, mechanic long term trading 29 replies

Short Term / Medium Term / Long Term? 3 replies

Attachments: Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading
Exit Attachments

Strat's Long Term Stress Free Trading

  • #41
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:52am Mar 1, 2009 11:52am
Quoting strat
GBPCHF:
Weekly:
In it's last legs of it's up cycle with momentum fading fast. We have seen increased volume this week without direction which usually portends a move in the opposite direction so looks like it's topping. Not an inside bar on my data - just a feeble, weak kneed up bar

Daily:
Also in it's last legs of it's up cycle with decaying volume telling us the bulls have lost interest but the bears are still to come out of their caves. Friday's bar bounced off minor support and is held down by major overhead resistance at 1.6860ish....
"the UK wanking system in such a mess "
a slip of the Pen.....i presume
  • #42
  • Mar 1, 2009 12:06pm Mar 1, 2009 12:06pm
Quoting baz
"the UK wanking system in such a mess "
a slip of the Pen.....i presume
No, UK banking system is run by Merchant Wankers who get paid 693,000 GBP per year to retire during a financial meltdown!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #43
  • Mar 1, 2009 12:10pm Mar 1, 2009 12:10pm
Quoting Pro
Hello Strat,

I like your idea of trading around swing points of resistance and support.....i have been doing similar thing lately.i take points off the 4hr chart which are basically the previous high, low and pivot of previous week....

But a caution and a question,

price tends to hover around this points for awhile before finally making a move which could be really huge........the question part, how do we determine when to trade at this point with less whipsaws?

your opinion will be highly appreciated.
If you are getting whipsawed on H4 then move up a time frame which will keep you out until the momentum is in the direction of your trade.

I'm not looking to get in at the top or bottom - I just want the "meat" in the middle of a trend - this is the safest with the lowest risk.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #44
  • Mar 1, 2009 12:29pm Mar 1, 2009 12:29pm
Quoting strat
No, UK banking system is run by Merchant Wankers who get paid 693,000 GBP per year to retire during a financial meltdown!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
yes i understand ........true wankers.......and he is only 50 yrs old....did not know thats a retireable age.....

baz
  • #45
  • Mar 1, 2009 3:07pm Mar 1, 2009 3:07pm
I've just read a cycle analyst saying that $CAD futures are at their oversold territory with the buy cycle predicted to begin on March 3rd. This would mean that USDCAD, being the inverse of $CAD futures, has to weaken and sell off.

So I look at my Weekly USDCAD and see:

A strong, unchallenged close on volume higher than in the last 21/2 years right at major resistance (at the 10th attempt) at 1.2720 with next major resistance at 1.2770 at the end of a corrective up cycle within the dominant down cycle. The 20 is above the 50 with both pointing skywards although prices are not really that far off the 20.

Looking at the Daily:
We have a very strong close on good supporting volume at major resistance BUT it has closed well above the triangle/coil. The daily is on it's last legs of it's upward cycle but again the 20 is above the 50 on increasing momentum.

From a funny mentals point of view, why would they buy the $CAD over the $US which is the currency of choice?

So some very conflicting signals. I'm no EW expert but I thought this sideways move from late Oct 2008 was some sort of complex wave 4 meaning higher prices ahead.

For me, I'm not selling until I see negative momentum and bearish price bars putting a swing high in place. I'm certainly not buying in the face of so much resistance but I will be watching to see if there is a retest on that trend line of the highs.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #46
  • Mar 1, 2009 5:57pm Mar 1, 2009 5:57pm
Quoting strat
I've just read a cycle analyst saying that $CAD futures are at their oversold territory with the buy cycle predicted to begin on March 3rd. This would mean that USDCAD, being the inverse of $CAD futures, has to weaken and sell off.

So I look at my Weekly USDCAD and see:

A strong, unchallenged close on volume higher than in the last 21/2 years right at major resistance (at the 10th attempt) at 1.2720 with next major resistance at 1.2770 at the end of a corrective up cycle within the dominant down cycle. The 20 is above the 50 with both pointing...
Thanks Strat!
I know you don't do trendline breakouts but USDCAD broke up through a big one on Friday on the daily chart. I am hoping this means we go up to 1.30 again (is there such a thing as a quadruple top?) and we all make big pips March 3rd shorting it.

Thanks for all your insight!
Nicola
  • #47
  • Mar 1, 2009 7:03pm Mar 1, 2009 7:03pm
Thank you for the PMs on indicators and price action. Rather than answer individually, I will do it through this post, if I may.

I’m not here to fight with anyone over whether to use indicators or not for we have a larger fight with the market makers than amongst us little guys. I respect the traders who can make consistent profits with indicators as it is something I have tried and cannot do. If anyone has an indicator that produces CONSISTENT profits then, please, show us the way.

In the meantime, I will continue with what works for me: raw price action using price, volume, S&R, momentum, exhaustion, cycles, time, harmonic analysis, market sentiment with a splash of funny mentals thrown in.

With regard to my transition from having indicators up the ying yang on my charts to now with just volume and the 20ema and the 50sma, I need to share my experience with an old time trader, Dr. Joe, which will also show how stubborn I was.

Back in the early 90s when I was getting really serious with my trading, I was buying signals via fax. In those days there was no email and no computer trading and we had to either plot our own charts or buy them from a charting service. We then had to calculate our own indicators and then hand draw them on our charts. This really helped in understanding what indicators did (take the data from “n” days ago) and how they worked.

One time I faxed my questions back to the signal service and the reply I got back was that I had sent it to the wrong number. Also written on my fax was that I was wasting my money on signals and to contact Dr. Joe. After a few fax exchanges, he sent a handwritten fax saying something like “trading is easy, you don’t need nuthin fancy (he was a good old Texas boy) just buy when it’s going up and sell when it’s going down, that’s all there is to it”.

Dr. Joe used to work for NASA as a nuclear physicist on the Space Program and was a Professor, PhD with just about every physics and maths qualifications there are or you could think of. He got fed up of the bureaucracy and politics at NASA and as a part time investor in stocks , decided to go full time as, in his own words, “the price cycles are just some sort of fancy sine waves with decay and acceleration distorting them and should be real easy to plot and forecast.”

Well after over 5 years doing triple integrated, double differentiated Fourier transforms, harmonic frequency analysis, fractal filters and theorems and goodness knows what else that, although I have a PhD, just ran circles around me. He said he got so frustrated that although he could plan and predict space craft trajectories, orbits, landings etc, he could not forecast even one bar of prices into the future. Not one to quit, he decided that there was some external force that he was not taking into consideration and the only place it could be was on the trading floor where the action took place.

Through his connections, he eventually got an invitation to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and was shown the futures or commodities pit (can’t remember which). His sole purpose of going there was as a spy or detective to find out exactly how things worked so that he could write it into his software. He told me he was “amazed and dumbfounded” at what he saw and heard which forever changed his life. (I had all this written up in my trading notes in my files but I can’t find them so I’m using this post to “replenish my notes”).

He arrived at the pit before opening time and saw all the floor traders congregated together in a meeting. He saw this as strange as he thought they were out and out competitors with each other.

What he saw in the first 15 to 30 minutes he would never have believed even if his best friend had told him. At the open, the overnight trades, which were long positions, were put through but he detected the traders entering them were giving signals to the other traders. After the orders were put through there was “nothing” – they just waited to see how the market reacted to those orders.

He then observed what he thought were illegal practices but later learned it to be what actually goes on each and every day. During this “dead” time, the floor traders were reviewing their orders in the pipeline and then on a given signal, a group started selling followed by another group. Then when a certain lower price had been reached, another signal was given and the same groups then bought back amongst themselves. He later learned this was called “Running the Stops” and what they had done was found out where all the orders were, which were below lows, swing lows and elsewhere, and just driven the price down to fill them and take them out so that they had a clean order sheet! Not satisfied with that, they then collectively took the price back to where it opened!

After this and now with the market moving, orders started to come in and when a large order came in from a bank, fund or other large institution, the trader with the order gave a signal before entering it. After entering it, the traders went quiet again. They were looking to see how the market reacted to that order. When they saw more buy orders coming in, they just bought more and more and kept on buying until a signal from a trader that he had a large sell order. Again the sell order was entered and the traders went quiet as they waited for a reaction from the market. He learned that the floor traders were waiting to see whether the sell order was going to be accepted as profit taking or full blown shorting. He said this went on all day long with the floor traders just “piggy-backing” on which ever way the market moved. He said he could see no skills or qualifications (other than being a whore – a very rich whore, he said) whatsoever in what the floor traders did.

On his way back to Houston, he thought about how to use what he witnessed to HIS advantage.

His first action was to throw out all his indicators, forecasts and technical analysis. He told me that there is no analysis, indicator or other program now or in the future, that can analyse or predict human behaviour and specifically, human emotions. He had seen for himself that there was nothing technical or logical in how the floor traders (now better known as Market Movers) traded and therefore any analysis or thinking from “off the floor” was an absolute waste of time.

His second action was how to beat “those whores” on the floor as he called them. He said he thought over just about every scenario imaginable and just as he was running out of ideas, it came to him. If you can’t beat, them join them although as a very devout and God fearing Christian, he didn’t think it was ethical. Unable to find another alternative, he decided he had no options left but to try and do, “off the floor” what they did on the floor.

From this came his very simple method:

Buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down.

He went on to make $millions doing this and I subsequently learned he passed away a very rich and contented man knowing that he had beaten the “whores” at their own game.

I learned all this in a few telephone conversations with him but he lost his patience with me when I still questioned his method. He wouldn’t answer my calls so I reverted back to faxes. Again, I can’t remember it word for word but I sent a simple fax saying:

“How do you know when to stop buying?”

On the same fax was his handwritten reply, “When it stops going up.”

So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up?”

His handwritten reply, “When it starts going down.”

So I wrote on it, “How do you know when it stops going up and starts going down?”

His handwritten reply, “When people start selling.”

After going round like this in riddles, I pleaded with him to “just give it to me straight”.

He sent a fax saying this would be his last communication with me and that if I didn’t understand how to buy when it goes up and sell when it goes down, I had no business trading.

His final paragraph was one which I ignored, like everything else he told me, until a couple of years ago when I realized what a dumb, stupid, arrogant, stubborn idiot I had been:

He said I would only be wrong twice using his simple method:

“Once when you buy at the top and once when you sell at the bottom.”

I just ignored this as a smart – ass answer but still tried to do what he said. Unfortunately, and as Sod’s law dictates, I tried to do it in a consolidation and lost on every trade which had me buying when I should have been selling etc.

I tried and lost again and then eventually lost my way in the quest for the Holy Grail in Indicator Land.

Now, with all my experience and thousands of lost $ behind me, the light came on!

My understanding of what he was telling me is this:

Buy when prices are moving up. Buy each retrace/dip. Keep buying until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the one trade you lose on.

Sell when prices are moving down. Sell each retrace/rally. Keep selling until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the second trade you lose on.

I have not traded like this as I have my own method/style now but on the look backs I have done it works very well. Obviously, the trendier the price, the better it works.

In my later communications with other floor traders, I told them about Dr. Joe and what he told me, and asked them if it was true. As you would expect, each and everyone vehemently rejected it as absolute rubbish.

Sometimes I wonder if old Dr. Joe was smoking something but then when I see those long legged neutral dojis before a significant move, I know he was right.

Thank you, Dr. Joe


Rock n Roll,
Strat

15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #48
  • Mar 1, 2009 7:18pm Mar 1, 2009 7:18pm
Quoting elitejets
Thanks Strat!
I know you don't do trendline breakouts but USDCAD broke up through a big one on Friday on the daily chart. I am hoping this means we go up to 1.30 again (is there such a thing as a quadruple top?) and we all make big pips March 3rd shorting it.

Thanks for all your insight!
Nicola
Happy Sunday in Toronto, Nicola!

Oh yes, kiddo, I do use trend line breakouts as per my sentence:

"...........BUT it has closed well above the triangle/coil"

The triangle/coil is that formed on the Daily chart by the trend line across the lower highs and the trend line across the base.

Well in Asian trading it has already gapped up but as you would expect, on very little volume. Watch out for London to come in and sell it with a BANG as is their usual want before maybe taking it higher themselves - or a polite way of saying filling the gap.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #49
  • Edited 5:20am Mar 2, 2009 1:59am | Edited 5:20am
Morning

Well it dont make for good conversation but i agree with all you said.Keep an eye on aussie and kiwi shorts as on the week and month we got some bearish signs but still waiting for that daily key on those pairs.

I had such a good time watching our unworthy Knight (Sir Fred) getting hammerd in the Lords last week.

Indeed the Cad has been off my menue for some time.

All in all im waiting for some nice clean daily bars then ill get to the nitty gritty but we are of one mind on this i see.With multi Intrest rate statments and N.F.P this week i feel the picture will become clearer although as i write that i think its clear already.All we need are daily as on gbp/swiss assie kiwi we got weekly and monthly levels to break cable and fiber are reaching there lows too so a nice bar there would be great.It all looks like a possible trend continuation from last summer but with a short yen twist and a sideways cad. G


I love that Doc Joe story but i swear thats what ive been doing but now we have price action instead of the pit.I only use price action sup/res.Its the best way and yep you lose twice in the cycle big deal.I respect your manual charting days wow we are soooo lucky to only have to overcome our fear and greed trading demons not lose as a calculation error.I have a friend who is a maths phd and designs jet engines ect he too was confounded by the market.When i pointed out to him that i was basicaly looking for shapes and patterns he was shocked.funny great story G


There is a great book every ticket tape trader HAS to read its called "reminiscences of a stock operator" by Edwin Lefevre even in 1900 daily bars sup/res were enough check it out.;isbn 0-87034-058-1

gbp swiss short @ 1.6315 let me know your thoughts thats the second part of my attack the first is short @ 1.6448 with 1.6377 as a target zone with pause @ 1.6414.Interesting doc!
  • #50
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:44am Mar 2, 2009 10:44am
Poor Bill,

I fractured a rib both playing football and coaching football (translation for our US friends - soccer - the game where you kick the BALL with your FOOT = football) so I know how painful it is. I promise not to make you laugh! I guess you forgot your 40th birthday last year and still thought you were a teenager!

Template? Hmm - all I have is a Daily candle chart with a red 20ema, a blue 50sma, a dotted red 100ema, and a dotted Blue 250sma and a Volume indicator in a lower window. I then switch this to Weekly to look at the big picture. When I do my end of week analysis, I add a couple of cycle indicators but I'm not entirely convinced yet that they really tell me anything or are worth the effort. The most important parts for me are to be able to clearly see price bars or candles (not Heiken Ashi or anything else) and support and resistance.

But I will paste some charts as we all need colour in our lives.

If you are comfortable using the Pimp Strategy then you should be able to use it on longer time frames - the trick is to put your trigger finger somewhere (I resisted the temptation to suggest where!) and not act until the close of the candle/bar.

Now, did you hear the joke about ......................!

Rock n Roll,
Strat

Quoting Honest Bill
Oh, Robert,

The irony of it.
I fractured a rib!!

Anyway, I have just registered with FF and waiting for approval before I can post there.

So, a few requests here.
Would it be possible to post your template? Just to see what way you are set up.

I haven't quite grasped your strategy. Do you recommend using Pimp's Strategy on the longer term? I am still using it short term, but want to expand to a longer term book. Perhaps you could post a chart or two on the potentials you are reviewing from time to time (a picture speaks a thousand words kind of thing). I know I could look at my own charts, but want to make sure I am drawing in the same lines as you, etc.

Feel free to copy and paste. I'll be along as soon as the account is approved.

Quoting stratocaster59
Why thank you Bill

Be careful not to break any bones!

Cheers,
Robert

Quoting Honest Bill
Hi, Strat,

I love your updates. I'll have to get in touch when back from my holidays after next week.

Honest Bill
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #51
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:59am Mar 2, 2009 10:59am
gbp/swiss workin break even with 180 pips profit i love free trades ....we continue
  • #52
  • Mar 2, 2009 11:25am Mar 2, 2009 11:25am
Quoting Baba G
Morning

Well it dont make for good conversation but i agree with all you said.Keep an eye on aussie and kiwi shorts as on the week and month we got some bearish signs but still waiting for that daily key on those pairs.

I had such a good time watching our unworthy Knight (Sir Fred) getting hammerd in the Lords last week.

Indeed the Cad has been off my menue for some time.

All in all im waiting for some nice clean daily bars then ill get to the nitty gritty but we are of one mind on this i see.With multi Intrest rate statments and N.F.P this...
Good morning Baba G,

I agree it does seem that we are both singing off the same hymn sheet - let's hope it's the correct hymn!

I got filled on GBPCHF at 1. 6490. The next minor support I see is at 1.6230 and 1.6130 with major support at 1.5860. I'm expecting some reaction where we are now at the round number of 1.6400 which coincides with support from the base trend line. If it breaks this, I see 1.6230 real easy although I expect another reaction (profit taking) around there and 1.6130. A break through 1.6130 and all I see is daylight to 1.5860.

The Yen pairs are looking more and more like profit taking to me so I am looking for an add-on quickie 1700 pips if I can get filled around 97.00ish on USDJPY. You can't beat a quickie!

That is a great book as is the confessions of a Stock Operator by Jesse Livermore as are the WD Gann books.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #53
  • Mar 2, 2009 12:34pm Mar 2, 2009 12:34pm
As I have business interests in China, this post by Jacko caught my attention:

What is China going do do with its Trillions There has been considerable discussion on various threads here as to whether China is looking to dump its Trillion dollar USD holdings in favor of Euros or Gold etc.

This article here is the start of the answer.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/china/c_.../Buying-up.htm

Instead of diverting currencies, they are simply buying up all the energy resources:
$6 Billion worth of oil from Venezuala
$25 Billion worth of petrol from Russia
$400 Million oil field in Libya
$19.5 Billion for 19% of Rio Tinto (an Australian mining giant)
$650 Million for 16.5% Fortescue Metals (iron ore)
$1.7 Billion for OZ minerals
Total $53 Billion

By my calculations China have $1950 Billion left to go (USD $2 Trillion minus $53 Billion)

Noticeably, US assets are not currently on the list. But I bet my ass that US companies are next in line.

Note to Obama: If they are not allowed to buy US companies, they won't buy our debts/bonds

Now lets see where the US is putting its funds

One example:

Citigroup has received $45 Billion ($25 Billion and $20 Billion) in TARP payments from the Govt

Citigroup has received $2.7 Billion from asset sales (sale of Smith Barney)

Citigroup has received a $300 Billion guarantee from the US Govt for its dodgy loans

So you would think that Citigroup would be worth north of $50 Billion.....

Nope. As of last Friday, it was capitalised at only $13.7 Billion

They have thrown in excess of $45 Billion at this bank and it is now worth less than $14 Billion.

Sad, very sad.

Warning from Thomas Jefferson In light of the present financial crisis, it's interesting to read what Thomas Jefferson said in 1802: "Banking institutions are more dangerous to our liberties than standing armies. If the American people ever allow private banks to control the issue of their currency, first by inflation, then by deflation, the banks and corporations that will grow up around the banks will deprive the people of all property until their children wake-up homeless on the continent their fathers conquered."

Strange how old timers are wise beyond their years!

Thank you, Jacko.

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #54
  • Mar 2, 2009 12:57pm Mar 2, 2009 12:57pm
Quoting strat
As I have business interests in China, this post by Jacko caught my attention:

What is China going do do with its Trillions...
The FED is the best example. This 'institution' is PRIVAT. The Currency of the american people is in hand of international banker. Those guys don´t care about your children. Obama is another puppet of those guys behind the scenes. I´m not american but I´m sad about the current situation in the USA. Once the US been the country of unlimited posibilities.. but now?

The Currency belongs in public hand.

"A great industrial nation is controlled by it's system of credit. Our system of credit is concentrated in the hands of a few men. We have come to be one of the worst ruled, one of the most completely controlled and dominated governments in the world--no longer a government of free opinion, no longer a government by conviction and vote of the majority, but a government by the opinion and duress of small groups of dominant men."

-President Woodrow Wilson-

Cheers.
  • #55
  • Mar 2, 2009 1:32pm Mar 2, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting strat
I need to share my experience with an old time trader, Dr. Joe, which will also show how stubborn I was. [..]
Thank you for that. It's probably one of the best post I have read on this forum.

About china - here is a very good article about what they might do http://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/0...-reserves.html
  • #56
  • Edited 1:59pm Mar 2, 2009 1:55pm | Edited 1:59pm
For those posting and PMing me wanting to know what my method/strategy is and where is it posted, I think within these first 4 pages it is pretty obvious.

My method is very basic and simple:

Price Action at Support & Resistance

The key is to know what Price Action IS and what it DOES at Support and Resistance.

Compared to other Price Action traders, I know I over analyse the charts too much but I have to use my hard earned and learned education somewhere!

I use raw price action using price, volume, support and resistance, momentum, exhaustion, cycles, time, harmonic analysis, elliott wave (only when I can figure the damned thing out!), market sentiment all with a splash of funny mentals thrown in.

After recalling my Dr. Joe experience, which I had chosen to ignore, I am now questioning myself as to why am I analysing so much on something over which I have no control. From now on, I will start to drop out some of the extranneous stuff and see what effect it has on my trading. I suspect (deep inside I know) I will just end up with price action, volume and support and resistance. Anyway, we are all here to learn.

What is important is not to use any one aspect of my method in isolation. For example, it would be foolish just to use Price Action without Support and Resistance. Next it would be foolish to use both of them without knowing where we are in the big picture etc.

My method/strategy will all be revealed here in this thread over time and in and among trading discussions and opportunities.

For those looking to find an entry and exit indicator of some sort then sorry, this is not for you. To be really profitable trading, there is NO shortcut or substitute to learning the basics and what I will post here is starting with the basics through where I am today.

Like every other successful and profitable trader, I have developed what works for me and I am not perfect. In fact, I am far from perfect, I get many of my analyses wrong and make many wrong trades. As we have read and heard over and over, the trick is to limit your losses so that your wins are always far greater. I accept that I will be wrong and I accept that I will have losses. The next trick is to move on. Forget your losses, just treat them as history and part of your learning curve.

Unknowingly, I think I have just written my first lesson!

Also, my style of teaching is like my humour - weird! So again I apologise for it right now. I was never spoon fed anything and had to learn the hard way so don't expect to be given everything on a plate. I will say or post something to stir up your imagination and thinking and provoke questions.

For those reading this thread who know far more than I, please feel free to question anything I say or do. I am still learning and open to any suggestions (Yes, Mrs Robinson!).

And, for those looking for the Holy Grail, I know what it is!

And for those wanting to know why I end my posts with "Rock n Roll"; as soon as I write that it takes my mind off trading and reminds me of the good times I had and that there are far more important things than price bars on a chart!

Rock n Roll,
Strat
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #57
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:20pm Mar 2, 2009 2:20pm
Since I will be posting everything I know here, I need to post the US Government Disclaimer to protect both myself and Forex Factory.

U.S. Government Required Disclaimer - Commodity Futures Trading Commission Futures, Currency and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to Buy/Sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed on this web site/forum. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.

CFTC RULE 4.41 - HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

All information on this website/forum or any e-book or software from this website/forum is for educational purposes only and is not intended to provide financial advice. Any statements about profits or income, expressed or implied, does not represent a guarantee. Your actual trading may result in losses as no trading system is guaranteed. You accept full responsibilities for your actions, trades, profit or loss, and agree to hold Strat and any authorized distributors of this information harmless in any and all ways.

All rights reserved. The use of this system constitutes acceptance of our user agreement.
15 YEARS OF PASR ON FOREX FACTORY!
  • #58
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:42pm Mar 2, 2009 2:42pm
Hi there Strat,

I'm employing pretty much the exact same strategy as you. I've been attempting to learn Forex for about 2 years now and have gone through the gauntlet of indicators with no success. Whatever it is about them, I just can not learn their intricacies. So about half a year ago I stumbled across a thread somewhere (forget if it was FF or somewhere else) that was basically "Trading S/R". Thus began my journey into "naked" trading - trading without the use of any derivative indicator.

I have to say that since undergoing that correction in my trading direction, I have felt a lot more comfortable with the trades I've taken even when they were losers. I started out first trying this strategy on the 5m but there can be a lot of wild swings and choppiness to deal with. Plus I have a full time job outside of trading and Tokyo hours aren't the best for "daytrading" currency. So as of last month, I began employing the strategies on a longer time frame.

So with regards to your earlier calls, here are some of my own:

EUR/USD - I came to the same conclusion as you in that in looks like it's headed down. It just broken out to the downside of a symmetrical triangle. This also coincided with the breaking of a major support level around 1.2715. We've had a series of lower swing highs and some lower swing lows. It gapped open past where I would have liked to sell it but has since retraced back to that level (1.2620ish) and is now halfway inbetween so we're testing support as resistance. My downside target would be 1.2430 which is the previous low.

USD/CHF - December had a huge down move and the 61.8 Fib level of that retrace has been tested as support. This pair spent all of Feb forming an ascending triangle that we are in the process of breaking out above and seeing if resistance will turn into support (1.1720). If support holds and bounces price up, I'm going to target a full retrace back to the December high of 1.2290 or so.

Both of these plays are waiting to be triggered.
  • #59
  • Mar 2, 2009 2:51pm Mar 2, 2009 2:51pm
Quoting strat
Thank you for the PMs on indicators and price action. Rather than answer individually, I will do it through this post, if I may.

I’m not here to fight with anyone over whether to use indicators or not for we have a larger fight with the market makers than amongst us little guys. I respect the traders who can make consistent profits with indicators as it is something I have tried and cannot do. If anyone has an indicator that produces CONSISTENT profits then, please, show us the way.

In the meantime,......


Hi Strat
just became a member of this Forum because I need to get an understanding about
FX before i lose all my money! I stumbled over your post and am curious like a baby.
BTW: 16 year old you can get where i live all day long, but it is illegal and as a foreigner you would be in jail for long time even she is already mother off three.......LOL
Make sense?


unchallenged close on volume higher
Can you explain this to a total Newbie in every aspect of this game?

Now Dr Joe:


Buy when prices are moving up.
Buy each retrace/dip.
Keep buying until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the one trade you lose on.
[font=Arial]Sell when prices are moving down.
Sell each retrace/rally.
Keep selling until the last retrace becomes a trend change which is the second trade you lose on.

Q:
When are you going to buy or sell what you just bought or sold all the way up or down?
And do you still believe this strategy is working today, because the moves are so fast changing direction!


happy trading
Mea
BTW: where can i find a volume meter?

***
  • #60
  • Mar 2, 2009 3:09pm Mar 2, 2009 3:09pm
Strats
I forgot to ask you the most important PART:

I like to learn a long term strategy for more than one reason, but one reason is very imminent.

The trigger finger!
If one is day trading the chance to get in to early and way to often is very present.

I have the feeling I need to go with a strategy that keeps me not only away from the PC and therefor from the attached mouse which makes it so
easy to lose my money.

Also it is much nicer to do other things than only to stare at a screen and moving candle sticks all day long!

Therefor I like to ask you if you have advice where can I find a strategy or the knowledge which can help me to become a long term
FX trader?

read all you post and you sound so relaxed after all those years off stress ( 3 x 20 ) and still feel 16 how you do this??
good trading
Mea
PS: I might be too stupid anyway!
***
13 traders viewing now