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No Brainer Trades

  • #9,341
  • Feb 27, 2009 8:14pm Feb 27, 2009 8:14pm
Quoting orcus
Just thought I'd post my demo results since starting to keep detailed records on Jan-6, to share the experience of a forex/sr newbie.

My "all trades" spreadsheet has every trade setup I identify, and goes by strictly mechanical rules thereafter: Enter no matter what time of day, proximity of news, price action, etc -- if my line is hit, I'm in. Then exit half position at +40 pips and move stop to BE; exit rest at +80 pips; otherwise, do not touch it. Almost all of these were previous-support-becomes-resistance (or vice versa) trades; there were...
Congrats man...that is good really good stuff...
  • #9,342
  • Feb 28, 2009 4:36am Feb 28, 2009 4:36am
Quoting orcus
Just thought I'd post my demo results since starting to keep detailed records on Jan-6, to share the experience of a forex/sr newbie.

My "all trades" spreadsheet has every trade setup I identify, and goes by strictly mechanical rules thereafter: Enter no matter what time of day, proximity of news, price action, etc -- if my line is hit, I'm in. Then exit half position at +40 pips and move stop to BE; exit rest at +80 pips; otherwise, do not touch it. This means the three possible results for each trade are 40 pip loss, 20 pip gain, and 60 pip...
Thats great. I am trying something similar although a bit different that I dont manually enter or exit.

I identified all obvious S/R from 4 hour chart from the past month or so and put buy/sell orders on all of them on about 3 pairs with 40 SL and 40 TP. Now all thats left to do is wait for all those orders to get hit and see how they went Just an experiment on demo! Of course I'd like to do things like more stop to B/E, let half keep running etc but its hard to do it without me sitting here all day.

Actually I manually tested teh same way some time back, in close to 150 trades on 3 pairs (50 trades each). And the results were awfully similar on all pairs. The lowest win rate was 61%. The average win rate on all trades was about the same 60-61%.
  • #9,343
  • Edited 2:43am Mar 2, 2009 2:28am | Edited 2:43am
Potential Short on Cable (GBP/USD) around 1.4300 - 1.4310 zone.

This is:

  1. At the 1.4300 Support + Resistance level
  2. Within the gap-down between Friday + Sunday evenings
  3. Around the 61.8% - 76.4% Fibo zone of the last swing down
  4. In line with a general trend downwards

Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #9,344
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:06am Mar 2, 2009 6:06am
Quote
Potential Short on Cable (GBP/USD) around 1.4300 - 1.4310 zone.
For that pair, I have the 143.50 area on my chart. S/R area goes back to Feb 11-13 and I drew the fib down from 146.07(50% retrace).

I was looking for a level a little further out to keep it a "no brainer".
  • #9,345
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:09am Mar 2, 2009 6:09am
Becarefull with the bounce it currently gave simply because the level is very abused
  • #9,346
  • Mar 2, 2009 6:37am Mar 2, 2009 6:37am
Quoting Shermenator
Becarefull with the bounce it currently gave simply because the level is very abused
Hope you guys did not buy that support I mentioned
  • #9,347
  • Mar 2, 2009 7:33am Mar 2, 2009 7:33am
Alright I am long in this puppy lets see how it plays out...

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  • #9,348
  • Mar 2, 2009 7:41am Mar 2, 2009 7:41am
Quoting Shermenator
Alright I am long in this puppy lets see how it plays out...

Attachment
what is the tp on this? n sl??
thanks.
  • #9,349
  • Mar 2, 2009 7:44am Mar 2, 2009 7:44am
Quoting behman8850
what is the tp on this? n sl??
thanks.

I dont give trades mate....I just make a statement of what I am doing in refrence of what goes on with this thread
  • #9,350
  • Mar 2, 2009 8:24am Mar 2, 2009 8:24am
So we're a ways off...but short USD/CAD 1.30 anyone?

I know I've been waiting for awhile on this one...
  • #9,351
  • Mar 2, 2009 8:39am Mar 2, 2009 8:39am
Closed nzdusd at 0 pips....not giving me th reaction I whant ...will wait for the next shot in the market....this was more like a time stop
  • #9,352
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:11am Mar 2, 2009 10:11am
Quoting sam0182
So we're a ways off...but short USD/CAD 1.30 anyone?

I know I've been waiting for awhile on this one...
I've got sell limits @ 1.2980'ish. I'd be very surprised if we didn't get a big bounce from this area (up to 1.30 of course).
  • #9,353
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:13am Mar 2, 2009 10:13am
Quoting G550
I've got sell limits @ 1.2980'ish. I'd be very surprised if we didn't get a big bounce from this area (up to 1.30 of course).
Yeah, I've been waiting on this one for awhile. Faded the last spike back in December for some nice points.
  • #9,354
  • Mar 2, 2009 10:27am Mar 2, 2009 10:27am
Probably going to short GBP/USD 1.4040 area, when price gets there.
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  • #9,355
  • Mar 2, 2009 11:47am Mar 2, 2009 11:47am
I'm in now.
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  • #9,356
  • Mar 2, 2009 12:55pm Mar 2, 2009 12:55pm
Quoting fx-Junior
I'm in now.
Hi fx-Junior,

I'd be wary of it breaking that level up to the 38.2% fib and previous support level around 1.4110

WG

PS. How can you trade off so few candles on your screen ?
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  • #9,357
  • Mar 2, 2009 1:26pm Mar 2, 2009 1:26pm
Quoting Willowgal
Hi fx-Junior,

I'd be wary of it breaking that level up to the 38.2% fib and previous support level around 1.4110

WG

PS. How can you trade off so few candles on your screen ?
Hi,

One position +20pips, another stopped BE. Yep, it was only meant to be a scalp. Target for the second position was 1.3970.


I look at the big picture about 200 candles on screen, mark the important areas, and zoom when intent on trade. Easier to concentrate on the trade.

jr
  • #9,358
  • Mar 2, 2009 1:32pm Mar 2, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting fx-Junior
Hi,

One position +20pips, another stopped BE. Yep, it was only meant to be a scalp. Target for the second position was 1.3970.


I look at the big picture about 200 candles on screen, mark the important areas, and zoom when intent on trade. Easier to concentrate on the trade.

jr
Nice one !

I assumed/hoped you must zoom out also
  • #9,359
  • Mar 2, 2009 3:03pm Mar 2, 2009 3:03pm
Quoting sam0182
So we're a ways off...but short USD/CAD 1.30 anyone?

I know I've been waiting for awhile on this one...
Yep bud ....I will be watching that...be aware of the conditions and how price is traveling to it...it should give some good pips...I will decide to take it or not depending on the time of the day and like I said how it gets to it
  • #9,360
  • Mar 2, 2009 3:05pm Mar 2, 2009 3:05pm
Here is something else I will paying attention to

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