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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #6,361
  • Feb 27, 2009 1:46pm Feb 27, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting McQueen68
an example of this occured in the last few hours...we had a high of 2812 yesterday and then she dropped down to 2687 early in the asian session...an astute trader that missed a move may have set up a limit sell order at 2750 (round #/50RT) and picked up a position that had no draw down at all and is already guaranteed to be a green trade...

that may be more aggressive than what jacko would advise, but it has worked for me...

bottom line: trading with the trend and using jacko's ah method takes a lot of pressure off of entries...

just my 2...
Dear McQueen68,
I have been following your posts keenly and u sound so confident concerning how you pick entries. Secondly, what TFs do you particularly trade cos you said you can alaways catch other entries on smaller Tfs wit round#/50% fib. i just want to know how you trade. Even using asian time, london time etc to know what might trigger the market is a herculean task for me as i dont even know the times. i would appreciate it if you can post your entry point before or after you make your trades so i can atleat compare them with mine to see if am following. i think the best thing for learners is to follow the big boys in the forum cause the have it all. finally how does TSl work? someone once said if am not connected, it will not update since it is controlled by the platform and not your broker.
thanks
Regards, Quest4pips.... Patience matters a lot here
  • #6,362
  • Feb 27, 2009 4:33pm Feb 27, 2009 4:33pm
Dear McQueen68,
I have been following your posts keenly and u sound so confident concerning how you pick entries.
I'm confident because Jacko's system is trend trading using retracements (getting a discount on price) and with the anti hedging method, you really can't go wrong...(i'd be willing to bet that you could wake up every morning, place a trade with the trend, employ the ah method and still be profitable in the long run. your drawdown may make you a little queasy, but i think it'd still be profitable)...i'm also confident because i don't care about this money in my account...i won it playing blackjack and poker...it's house money! if you can release yourself from the money in your account, it helps...plus, i only care about following the rules...i'd rather lose on a trade where i traded the plan than win on a trade where i abandoned the plan and was essentially gambling...
Secondly, what TFs do you particularly trade cos you said you can alaways catch other entries on smaller Tfs wit round#/50% fib.
4hr/3hr on OANDA...if i miss a move i may try to catch a 50RT/round# retrace using the hourly chart...
i just want to know how you trade. Even using asian time, london time etc to know what might trigger the market is a herculean task for me as i dont even know the times.
http://www.tradingcurrencyonline.com/timezones.html (http://www.tradingcurrencyonline.com/timezones.html)
i would appreciate it if you can post your entry point before or after you make your trades so i can atleat compare them with mine to see if am following.
i've posted all 3 of my trades in the last week within minutes of placing them...this morning, i posted an example trade(that i did not take) based on a point made earlier in the week...
i think the best thing for learners is to follow the big boys in the forum cause the have it all.
i am not a big boy at all...jacko is a big boy, he's a millionaire...i am merely a thousandaire...lol...i have, however traded with his method since 7/31/08 and have run up an account pretty nicely...
finally how does TSl work? someone once said if am not connected, it will not update since it is controlled by the platform and not your broker.
then you should do it on your own...jacko does it that way...i do it that way because i use OANDA (no tsl feature) and frankly i don't trust the software...

hope that helps...and once again i, by no means, can speak for jacko...what i have given you is my interpretation of his methodology and how it has worked for me...use your own due dilligence...backtest using tick by tick data and have fun...
g/l & g/t
  • #6,363
  • Feb 27, 2009 9:22pm Feb 27, 2009 9:22pm
my advice is put no more than 1% of your capital on this trade, and test this 'theory' out to find your edge...and if you fail, keep trying, because you have 100 times to try at 1%, before you go bust! Hopefully you will learn to be profitable well before 100x! =)


Quoting Quest4pips
Jellybean and W.Jen,
"i dont know am jst thinking may be am awful wrong. pls let me know
Thanks and am still a baby in this.
  • #6,364
  • Feb 28, 2009 12:10am Feb 28, 2009 12:10am
Quoting McQueen68
Dear McQueen68,
I have been following your posts keenly and u sound so confident concerning how you pick entries.
[color=darkgreen]I'm confident because Jacko's system is trend trading using retracements (getting a discount on price) and with the anti hedging method, you really can't go wrong...(i'd be willing to bet that you could wake up every morning, place a trade with the trend, employ the ah method and still be profitable in the long run. your drawdown may make you a little queasy, but i think it'd still be profitable)...i'm also confident...
I wholeheartedly agree with this. A good outline of how to trade.I'm confident because Jacko's system is trend trading using retracements (getting a discount on price) and with the anti hedging method, you really can't go wrong...(i'd be willing to bet that you could wake up every morning, place a trade with the trend, employ the ah method and still be profitable in the long run. your drawdown may make you a little queasy, but i think it'd still be profitable)....

This is a good time clock for all trading times, It shows if the market is open or closed.
http://fxtrade.oanda.com/resources/fxmarkethours/

I had a superb week this week. I took out 200+ pips on Jacko's call to short late in the week. Did even better than the master on that trade. LOL.
  • #6,365
  • Feb 28, 2009 11:38pm Feb 28, 2009 11:38pm
What a wonderful topic. I'm still at the beginning but i'll read all of it no matter how long it takes...congrats, jacko, for being so successful and generous to share your knowledge and experience. Many thanks.
freedom
  • #6,366
  • Mar 1, 2009 11:21am Mar 1, 2009 11:21am
I see 2800 as a good place to start selling as it is the 50% fib of last month and last weeks high and lows.

I will be waiting for that pull back OR if we see a substantial break and daily closes below 2600.

It's a dangerous place to enter a position right now since my charts show we are smack dab in the middle of the bearish channel...

I am thinking I might increase my TSL to 200 pips and cut my position size in half to maintain my R% and then add to my position if it moves in my favor. I keep getting whipsawed out of the market, but not enough to use the AH...very very frustrating, we'll see.
  • #6,367
  • Edited 10:54pm Mar 1, 2009 12:07pm | Edited 10:54pm
Quoting W.Jen
my advice is put no more than 1% of your capital on this trade, and test this 'theory' out to find your edge...and if you fail, keep trying, because you have 100 times to try at 1%, before you go bust! Hopefully you will learn to be profitable well before 100x! =)
You need to brush up on your math.....
Same Whore .... Different Dress
  • #6,368
  • Mar 1, 2009 12:15pm Mar 1, 2009 12:15pm
hahaha - very true.

I thought that if I only risk 1% on every trade, I would NEVER lose ALL my money...but it might be hard to trade 1% of 1 penny...

BTW, I agree with your signature.
  • #6,369
  • Edited 3:52pm Mar 1, 2009 3:35pm | Edited 3:52pm
I got a question for jacko or whoever cares to answer. It`s about the anti hedging technique.

What i want to know is this - suppose i know my entering position and suppose i go long but then it keeps falling and my stop is hit. Now your anti hedging technique would tell us to go long at the place where the stop was hit, once the market eventually bounces back. I get the sense of this from a money management perspective, but wouldn`t it maximize our chances of profits (both short and long term) if instead of setting our previous stop point as our new entry point, we try again to find a better entry point (either by using trendlines or round numbers etc)?


I get that the anti hedging technique is great for discipline and money management, but if the trader is very disciplined already, i don`t see how setting the new entry point as the previous stop point is better than just looking for a new entry point that has more chances of there being profit.


edit - same goes for setting the stop loss. I`m aware that always setting a stop point for 50 pips from entry point may be great for keeping discipline, but why not set a stop point, for example, just ~behind~ a round number, so that it`s less likely to get triggered? Have you considered all these things, jacko, and still came to the conclusion that having a more mechanistic system beats having a more discretionary system that may maximize profits if the trader is good and disciplined?

Am i missing something? Is my logic flawed here?
freedom
  • #6,370
  • Mar 1, 2009 4:00pm Mar 1, 2009 4:00pm
Quoting equilibrium6
Am i missing something? Is my logic flawed here?
You might be missing something. This is trading with a trend, so it is assumed that your trade is in the same direction as the trend (Say up). There are always retraces in a trend and this is usually where you will usually get stopped out. After it passes your stop by more than 50 pips (Say 75 pips) then add order for same size at place of your last order was stopped and assuming you make it past you original entry point, you have made back you lost trade. The basic idea of AH is to take a loss and make it a winner, or at least even.

I think your logic is not flawed if there is a major correction (500-1000 pips?) then you might want to look for an entry at a lower price but don't forget to add your AH so that when it goes back to following the trend it will be picked up.

I don't trade pure Jacko style trades, but I use the AH for all of my loosing trades that qualify.
  • #6,371
  • Edited 6:58pm Mar 1, 2009 4:14pm | Edited 6:58pm
Hi, Jacko! As I read each of your posts in reply to various comments, I am intrigued by your knowledge and your optimism.

What do you think of this "hype" circulating about a new global monetary system? Russia and China think everything should be backed by intrinsically valued commodities (much like the gold standard) while others think there should be a mere three or four world currencies without having a reserve currency.

I have read several times where you'll simply state, "this business is going to around a lot longer than you or I," speaking of FX trading. Why do you think this? And when you say this, are you referring to the spot FX market?
  • #6,372
  • Mar 1, 2009 4:53pm Mar 1, 2009 4:53pm
Quoting Fx_Genius
You might be missing something. This is trading with a trend, so it is assumed that your trade is in the same direction as the trend (Say up). There are always retraces in a trend and this is usually where you will usually get stopped out. After it passes your stop by more than 50 pips (Say 75 pips) then add order for same size at place of your last order was stopped and assuming you make it past you original entry point, you have made back you lost trade. The basic idea of AH is to take a loss and make it a winner, or at least even.

I think your...
I don`t think you understood me very well, but then it may be my fault for not making myself clearer...

What i`m questioning is why enter a new buy point at the same spot where your original stop point was, if, for example, 15 pips from this point there`s a better and more-likely-to-succeed spot (like a spot where if the market breaks it, it will have a higher chance of rallying).

Let`s not forget that the original stop point was not chosen according to any standard other than ~50 pips away from entry point~, so it`s possible and indeed likely that around this spot there may be spots that are more attractive.

Again, this approach requires more discipline and i just wanted to know if jacko had already considered it and why wouldn`t he have chosen it, considering he`s a very experienced and obviously outstanding trader.
freedom
  • #6,373
  • Mar 1, 2009 5:21pm Mar 1, 2009 5:21pm
Ok let`s wrap this up. Below are the bases for this question in case you don`t get where i`m coming from, jacko. In short, my question, to you, jacko, is why do you use discretion when choosing your entry point (other than always following the trend) but doesn`t use it when setting your stop loss point? Why do you always set it at 50 pips down from where you entered instead of choosing, like, 65 pips away if you see that that`s a good point where the market is more unlikely to go (like a point just after a round number or a trendline or some support or resistance level etc).

Why ~draw the line on the sand~ by a mechanistic way when the chances of profits get higher when you try to choose, discretionally, always the very best spots, both for entry and for exit?

Quoting equilibrium6
I got a question for jacko or whoever cares to answer. It`s about the anti hedging technique.

What i want to know is this - suppose i know my entering position and suppose i go long but then it keeps falling and my stop is hit. Now your anti hedging technique would tell us to go long at the place where the stop was hit, once the market eventually bounces back. I get the sense of this from a money management perspective, but wouldn`t it maximize our chances of profits (both short and long term) if instead of setting our previous stop point as our...

Quoting equilibrium6
I don`t think you understood me very well, but then it may be my fault for not making myself clearer...

What i`m questioning is why enter a new buy point at the same spot where your original stop point was, if, for example, 15 pips from this point there`s a better and more-likely-to-succeed spot (like a spot where if the market breaks it, it will have a higher chance of rallying).

Let`s not forget that the original stop point was not chosen according to any standard other than ~50 pips away from entry point~, so it`s possible and indeed likely...
freedom
  • #6,374
  • Mar 1, 2009 5:36pm Mar 1, 2009 5:36pm
Because that's his rules and sticking to them come whatever is what has made him a sh*t load of money !

Quoting equilibrium6
Ok let`s wrap this up. Below are the bases for this question in case you don`t get where i`m coming from, jacko. In short, my question, to you, jacko, is why do you use discretion when choosing your entry point (other than always following the trend) but doesn`t use it when setting your stop loss point? Why do you always set it at 50 pips down from where you entered instead of choosing, like, 65 pips away if you see that that`s a good point where the market is more unlikely to go (like a point just after a round number or a trendline or some...
  • #6,375
  • Mar 1, 2009 6:25pm Mar 1, 2009 6:25pm
Quoting willf
Because that's his rules and sticking to them come whatever is what has made him a sh*t load of money !
Yes that goes without saying.

But i want to know why he made this rule to be so. Does he think it`s the most effective way to trade or is it because it`s less stressful or safer than constantly looking for the ideal stop loss points/new entry points?
freedom
  • #6,376
  • Edited 10:28pm Mar 1, 2009 10:00pm | Edited 10:28pm
Hi All,

Read thru the beginning 130+ pages and pages 400 onwards.

Just one item that confuse me now. Do jacko shift the SL to 100 pips or still maintain at 50 pips. Seem that a lot of post that mention this two numbers.

Need to keep it simple.

Due to my own (un)discipline the month of February took away 1600 pips from me in micro lot. But still it hurts. Its like I did not learn anything
  • #6,377
  • Mar 1, 2009 10:25pm Mar 1, 2009 10:25pm
Quoting deGonggok
Read thru the beginning 130+ pages and pages 400 onwards.Just one item that confuse me now. Do jacko shift the SL to 100 pips or still maintain at 50 pips. Seem that a lot of post that mention this two numbers.Need to keep it simple.
I cant remember exactly when it was changed, well b4 I got here but it is @ 100 SL due to increased volatility. I had the ame question when i read thru there the 1st time. It seems like alot but you dont want the SL getting in the way of a perfectly good trend

BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #6,378
  • Mar 2, 2009 4:58am Mar 2, 2009 4:58am
Hi all,

There has been considerable discussion on various threads here as to whether China is looking to dump its Trillion dollar USD holdings in favor of Euros or Gold etc.

This article here is the start of the answer.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/china/c_business/2009/03/02/198326/Buying-up.htm

Instead of diverting currencies, they are simply buying up all the energy resources:
$6 Billion worth of oil from Venezuala
$25 Billion worth of petrol from Russia
$400 Million oil field in Libya
$19.5 Billion for 19% of Rio Tinto (an Australian mining giant)
$650 Million for 16.5% Fortescue Metals (iron ore)
$1.7 Billion for OZ minerals
Total $53 Billion

By my calculations China have $1950 Billion left to go (USD $2 Trillion minus $53 Billion)

Noticeably, US assets are not currently on the list. But I bet my ass that US companies are next in line.

Note to Obama: If they are not allowed to buy US companies, they won't buy our debts/bonds

.
Jacko
  • #6,379
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:12am Mar 2, 2009 5:12am
Now lets see where the US is putting its funds

One example:

Citigroup has received $45 Billion ($25 Billion and $20 Billion) in TARP payments from the Govt

Citigroup has received $2.7 Billion from asset sales (sale of Smith Barney)

Citigroup has received a $300 Billion guarantee from the US Govt for its dodgy loans

So you would think that Citigroup would be worth north of $50 Billion.....

Nope. As of last Friday, it was capitalised at only $13.7 Billion

They have thrown in excess of $45 Billion at this bank and it is now worth less than $14 Billion.

Sad, very sad.

.
Jacko
  • #6,380
  • Mar 2, 2009 5:19am Mar 2, 2009 5:19am
Quoting jacko
Hi all,

There has been considerable discussion on various threads here as to whether China is looking to dump its Trillion dollar USD holdings in favor of Euros or Gold etc.

This article here is the start of the answer.
http://www.chinapost.com.tw/china/c_business/2009/03/02/198326/Buying-up.htm

Instead of diverting currencies, they are simply buying up all the energy resources:
$6 Billion worth of oil from Venezuala
$25 Billion worth of petrol from Russia
$400 Million oil field in Libya
$19.5 Billion for 19% of Rio Tinto (an Australian...
Sounds like China has been listening to Jim Rogers and is buying commodity supply for the future.

I suspect they will buy just enough US debt to keep the US government afloat and will continue to spend the rest on commodities for the future when they become the world's largest economy and premier producer.
"Money is easy to make, but hard to keep" - FWV 1975
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