This strategy has no legs over time.. you would be better off looking at a system based around inside bars and outside bars.. much higher strike rate..
Slingshot 30M & 1H - The 2nd Coming......
- #1,024
- Feb 28, 2009 9:31am Feb 28, 2009 9:31am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: I'm on a 10 year plan. | 4,309 Posts
The problem with your theory is that we really are not trading it anything like the original system. Lots of people like this entry stragedy, myself included. My manual testing has shown that this system is completely profitable and the EA is still a work in progress and as of yet is not trading like I was testing.
Good luck with your trading
Good luck with your trading
Because I backtested the original method by using a combination of 30 min and 5 min charts manually.. and yes using filters would maybe improve results, I didn't use them.. but the ratio of profit to stop loss turns the account negative very quickly after a few decent winning periods.. this was using the original idea of closing at bar close by the creator (Martin). A system needs a half decent strike rate in it's original form before adding filters. Trying to add filters to system which is very much a loser in the first instance is a waste imo.....
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
- #1,025
- Feb 28, 2009 9:33am Feb 28, 2009 9:33am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: I'm on a 10 year plan. | 4,309 Posts
Very Well 
. I will go back to manual testing again this coming week and post my results. It has been a couple of weeks since I have done so. Let's see if anything has changed. Good suggestion.
=llambert3;2570477]When Damon manually did the trades he was bringing in great returns. I have only had a few of those great return days with this EA. Either you are right, or the EA isn't doing as Damon was doing. Hopefully he can start back doing it manually (at least a week or 2) so we can see if it is still profitable or that those periods he was doing it was profitable by pure luck. He was using another filter as well that he has yet to give us. You are right that the original slingshot is not profitable, but when you trade with the trend maybe you get better results. A lot of the losers are because they traded first few minutes of a bar. Maybe the timing of the day is off as well, etc. Did you backtest the original 24 hours a day? By the time we are through either it is a waste of time (hopefully we determine that soon) or it really won't be slingshot anymore.. lol[/quote]
. I will go back to manual testing again this coming week and post my results. It has been a couple of weeks since I have done so. Let's see if anything has changed. Good suggestion.=llambert3;2570477]When Damon manually did the trades he was bringing in great returns. I have only had a few of those great return days with this EA. Either you are right, or the EA isn't doing as Damon was doing. Hopefully he can start back doing it manually (at least a week or 2) so we can see if it is still profitable or that those periods he was doing it was profitable by pure luck. He was using another filter as well that he has yet to give us. You are right that the original slingshot is not profitable, but when you trade with the trend maybe you get better results. A lot of the losers are because they traded first few minutes of a bar. Maybe the timing of the day is off as well, etc. Did you backtest the original 24 hours a day? By the time we are through either it is a waste of time (hopefully we determine that soon) or it really won't be slingshot anymore.. lol[/quote]
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
- #1,026
- Feb 28, 2009 9:34am Feb 28, 2009 9:34am
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: I'm on a 10 year plan. | 4,309 Posts
The porn industry put in for a bailout, why not us?
Nah, all this thing needs is a little stimulous bailout package
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers
Hi All –
Some hope in solving the technical issues with the ea. I cleaned up the code, tweaked here and there and made some changes in the filters/combinations. Some of the test results are in the attachment.
First, I temporarily dropped all but the single filters for test purposes this week with one exception. The exception is I added a fourth filter (cross of two moving averages) at the request of sayembara. I made a new 2-filter combo using mmacd and ma. Therefore, this version has five filters (the four singles plus the one 2-filter combination). If you put the two ma’s on your screen it is very easy to follow the ea at work and you can quickly pick up whether trades were missed, etc. The settings for the ma variables can be changed by the trader. Why am I more hopeful?
GBPUSD M30 1/19-2/13/3009
Some hope in solving the technical issues with the ea. I cleaned up the code, tweaked here and there and made some changes in the filters/combinations. Some of the test results are in the attachment.
First, I temporarily dropped all but the single filters for test purposes this week with one exception. The exception is I added a fourth filter (cross of two moving averages) at the request of sayembara. I made a new 2-filter combo using mmacd and ma. Therefore, this version has five filters (the four singles plus the one 2-filter combination). If you put the two ma’s on your screen it is very easy to follow the ea at work and you can quickly pick up whether trades were missed, etc. The settings for the ma variables can be changed by the trader. Why am I more hopeful?
GBPUSD M30 1/19-2/13/3009
- This version of the ea takes up less CPU overhead – yea!
- The first two sets of test results both use the mmacd filter – the first set of results is for version 3.0 and the second test results for 3.1 – notice I tested using the recommended SL setting in post #1, ATR SL only and ATR SL /TP. For v3.0, the number of trades taken varied between the MM options (= old problem of missing trades). However, for all datasets using v3.1, the number of trades stays the same for each dataset regardless of which MM option is used. This is good! I did a visual inspection of the results on the screen and didn’t see any missed trades as well. Hopefully missing trades is a thing of the past, but only forward testing will tell us for sure.
- For all the test sets, the % winners is between 61-70% . Generally the ATR SL has a higher win rate than the recommended settings alone and the ATR SL/TP had the highest win rate of all BUT was less profitable than ATR SL results. Basically the difference between the average winner and loser was larger for ATR SL/TP resulting in less profit. However, with some tweaking of the ATR setting could improve the results.
- Using the new MA filter (third set of test results), the results show a significantly improved profit picture for this dataset.
- For the first time in my backtesting, combining two filters resulted in an increase in profits. Because of the results of testing the MA by itself, I decided to write a single 2-filter option using mmacd and MA. This resulted (test set #4) in even a better profit picture than either filter alone.
I need your feedback to see if the changes I’ve made have resolved the issues of missing trades and improper closings. As the result of other testing not shown in this post, I changed the closing conditions so that if a trade is BE or better at the end of a bar (including the entry bar), the trade is closed.
I'll post the new ea version 3.1 a little later.
Have fun!
Gary
- #1,032
- Edited 8:18am Mar 1, 2009 7:18am | Edited 8:18am
Please find attached the new ea version 3.1. I listed the changes in the prior post. No changes in the indies, just the ea.
A little cheerleading is in order I think. The results over the last couple of weeks has nothing to do with how successful Damon’s system might or might not be. It has been all about trying to get the ea to technically trade Damon’s system correctly. The bottom line is that the ea has not been successful at doing that ……yet!
The only real results of the system has been those manually traded by Damon and a few of us early on. The results were very encouraging. It’s a time consuming and “tough on the concentration” system if you trade manually. Therefore, we are trying to get an ea, actually a series of mini ea’s, to trade the system properly. The poor results of trading the ea is a reflection of the development of the ea and not of the trading system.
We need to get the ea to trade the system correctly before we can go on to answering questions about which filters, how many filters, combination of filters, optimizing filters, the best trading window, best pairs, best TF’s, etc. Once this is done, then it will be fair to draw conclusions about the trading system itself.
I think this new version helps us in the initial effort to get the ea technically correct. I’m going to suggest in the next post of a few suggestions to help us test more effectively and move this process along a bit more quickly and effectively.
I’ve also attached a couple of images to show the ma filter at work! The red line is the fast ma (Period = 13) and the red line is the slow ma (Period = 89). If the red line is below the blue, looking to go short. If the red line is above the blue, looking to go long.
Gary
A little cheerleading is in order I think. The results over the last couple of weeks has nothing to do with how successful Damon’s system might or might not be. It has been all about trying to get the ea to technically trade Damon’s system correctly. The bottom line is that the ea has not been successful at doing that ……yet!
The only real results of the system has been those manually traded by Damon and a few of us early on. The results were very encouraging. It’s a time consuming and “tough on the concentration” system if you trade manually. Therefore, we are trying to get an ea, actually a series of mini ea’s, to trade the system properly. The poor results of trading the ea is a reflection of the development of the ea and not of the trading system.
We need to get the ea to trade the system correctly before we can go on to answering questions about which filters, how many filters, combination of filters, optimizing filters, the best trading window, best pairs, best TF’s, etc. Once this is done, then it will be fair to draw conclusions about the trading system itself.
I think this new version helps us in the initial effort to get the ea technically correct. I’m going to suggest in the next post of a few suggestions to help us test more effectively and move this process along a bit more quickly and effectively.
I’ve also attached a couple of images to show the ma filter at work! The red line is the fast ma (Period = 13) and the red line is the slow ma (Period = 89). If the red line is below the blue, looking to go short. If the red line is above the blue, looking to go long.
Gary
- #1,033
- Edited 8:12am Mar 1, 2009 8:00am | Edited 8:12am
Good morning to all!
To move the development of the ea along in a more effective and timely manner I would like to suggest specific feedback that would be very helpful as you forward test. Concentrating only on one chart (or more if have the time and energy), using just one of the filters (1 thru 5) and providing some detail info would be a great approach. I think Junior’s (llambert3) suggestion about using a single broker with assigned tasks to test is great and at least some of us should take him up on the idea.
Specific feedback needed:
To move the development of the ea along in a more effective and timely manner I would like to suggest specific feedback that would be very helpful as you forward test. Concentrating only on one chart (or more if have the time and energy), using just one of the filters (1 thru 5) and providing some detail info would be a great approach. I think Junior’s (llambert3) suggestion about using a single broker with assigned tasks to test is great and at least some of us should take him up on the idea.
Specific feedback needed:
- Pair traded, TF, any settings changed other than the defaults. This would include the filter.
- Number of total trades, profit, % winners. Or, just post your statement for the day.
- Number of missed trades including the time of each missed trade.
- Number of “extra” trades taken (= trades not indicated by the slingshot bar indie) and the time of each extra trade.
- Did the trades open at the correct price?
- Was the SL modified at the end of the entry bar correctly?
- Did the trade close at the correct price?
- Did the trade close at the correct time?
Clarifications/definitions:
I have made the assumption based on prior feedback that the filters are working correctly in giving the right buy and sell signals. The new ma filter has yet to be tested except by me but it looked fine in some small tests.
What is the correct entry price? Remember we have a hard coded slippage of 3. For a buy, entry price is 1 pip above the close of the setup bar; for a sell, entry price is 1 pip below the close of the setup bar.
What is the correct modified SL? If the trade is not BE or better, then at the end of the entry bar, the SL is modified; for a buy the modified SL is the low of the entry bar - 1 pip . For a sell the modified SL is the high of the entry bar + 1 pip + spread.
What is the correct closing price? The trade should close if it hits the SL or if the profit is BE or better at the end of a bar including the entry bar.
What is the correct closing time? A trade should never go beyond the end of a bar when the trade is profitable (= BE or better). Remember, again, we have a hard coded slippage of 3.
Hope this helps get us all on the same page in providing the most constructive feedback to get this ea trading in a technically correct manner so we can move on to testing the trading system itself.
If I have forgotten some information that should have been included above, please let me know. Thanks for your help.
Gary
- #1,035
- Mar 1, 2009 9:05am Mar 1, 2009 9:05am
Good morning to all!
Hope this helps get us all on the same page in providing the most constructive feedback to get this ea trading in a technically correct manner so we can move on to testing the trading system itself.
If I have forgotten some information that should have been included above, please let me know. Thanks for your help. Gary
Your dedication is fantastic, thank you!
I will test the latest EA next week
hsa
The problem with your theory is that we really are not trading it anything like the original system. Lots of people like this entry stragedy, myself included. My manual testing has shown that this system is completely profitable and the EA is still a work in progress and as of yet is not trading like I was testing.
Good luck with your trading
Thanks good luck with the EA.. hope it can meet the same results as your testing.. I just can't see how it would work out.. but maybe I am blinkered by a strike rate I know can give results..
Try looking at 15 minute charts and inside / outside bars when say a stochastic is at an extreme and crosses back.. maybe only taking longs if 30 min or 1 hour stoch is above zero etc etc.. or a similar higher low theory as was posted on here ages ago as a filter.. when the next bar breaks the inside bar with the trend , thats the entry... and stop is at the opposite end and moved up pretty quick to evens or in profit with the trend..
good luck again..
- #1,040
- Mar 1, 2009 1:12pm Mar 1, 2009 1:12pm
- Joined Oct 2007 | Status: I'm on a 10 year plan. | 4,309 Posts
"Keep your eyes on the helpers" - Mr. Rogers