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No Brainer Trades

  • #9,281
  • Feb 26, 2009 10:35am Feb 26, 2009 10:35am
Awesome I had no idea . ......thanks man!
  • #9,282
  • Feb 26, 2009 10:38am Feb 26, 2009 10:38am
Quoting nyjetfan
Hi HWSV07 - Have you read the PDF that is on the first page of this thread (might even be on the first post), as well as reviewed BRV's site www...
nyjetfan, thANKS. this helped me out as well....

BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #9,283
  • Feb 26, 2009 10:55am Feb 26, 2009 10:55am
Hello everyone, a new NoBrainer just joined.
SayedFX
  • #9,284
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:05am Feb 26, 2009 11:05am
Looking to short eurgbp @ 0.8919
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  • #9,285
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:16am Feb 26, 2009 11:16am
I have a question for the experience folks out there. I shorted the pound this morning at 1.4370 and had my TP at about 4305. It came within 2 pips, never touched my TP, and reversed back up. I had already moved my stop to BE and got stopped out with no loss, no gain of course. I viewed this as a good short setup because the area I was short from clearly had acted as S/R in the past an obviously price reacted to it immediately when it was approached.

If you look on a H1 chart, this line was tested again after the initial incident. My question is how do you know when it's right to jump back in and take the same short position on such S/R levels? Is this mostly discretionary or is there something more concrete behind this? As of right now, price is at 4326 so had I jumped back in, I would be up 40 or so pips.

Thanks.
  • #9,286
  • Feb 26, 2009 11:21am Feb 26, 2009 11:21am
Quoting RedCabbage
There have been over half a dozen No Brainer set ups already this morning, how many do you need?
There were??

People keep telling me I'm taking too many and not being selective enough in only taking the very obvious ones; I saw only one today and it was only good for 40 pips
  • #9,287
  • Feb 26, 2009 12:11pm Feb 26, 2009 12:11pm
Quoting orcus
There were??

People keep telling me I'm taking too many and not being selective enough in only taking the very obvious ones; I saw only one today and it was only good for 40 pips
I identify 6-8 set ups everyday, whether I take them or not depends on correlations, fundies and PA. Only a few end up as true NBTs.
  • #9,288
  • Feb 26, 2009 1:27pm Feb 26, 2009 1:27pm
Gotcha. That makes more sense and is about in line with my setups. I "just" need to get better at choosing which to take when the time comes.
  • #9,289
  • Feb 26, 2009 1:30pm Feb 26, 2009 1:30pm
Alright guys take it easy see you tomorrow ....Results for the day are 45 pips total trades 1 ...nothing big at all lol but a winning day ...total growth is R X .5
  • #9,290
  • Feb 26, 2009 1:33pm Feb 26, 2009 1:33pm
Quoting G550
My question is how do you know when it's right to jump back in and take the same short position on such S/R levels? Is this mostly discretionary or is there something more concrete behind this? As of right now, price is at 4326 so had I jumped back in, I would be up 40 or so pips.
For me once it goes to a target area I consider it done because it went there and fulfilled its immediate destiny. Whatever it wants to do after that is again back to looking at the charts for a new setup...it might bounce up and down and give lots of re-entries in retrospect but it could also go completely the wrong way...in terms of substantiating that, who knows, but based on the sam seiden insights about where orders are stacked and why it bounces from those areas, when it initially went to the target and retraced (where you'd consider a re-entry based on the initial analysis of the move), it probably bounced from the target because it was a supply or demand area but maybe that first trip absorbed the last of the sitting orders and the level is no longer valid...we don't know, so that's why I just take the initial trip there and then the more it might try to stab at it, the more risky it becomes that the whole reason for the setup is now nonexistent and I'm just gambling.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #9,291
  • Edited 1:53pm Feb 26, 2009 1:42pm | Edited 1:53pm
Quoting Thexder
For me once it goes to a target area I consider it done because it went there and fulfilled its immediate destiny. Whatever it wants to do after that is again back to looking at the charts for a new setup...it might bounce up and down and give lots of re-entries in retrospect but it could also go completely the wrong way...in terms of substantiating that, who knows, but based on the sam seiden insights about where orders are stacked and why it bounces from those areas, when it initially went to the target and retraced (where you'd consider a re-entry...

I disagree on that mate....on my opinion a level for a person looks very differnt depending on the timeframe your looking at it ...as well as how your willing to mange the trade out....for a small timeframe it could look like its been a while since it has visited the level since a quick move up from it may seem alot to them meaning if it comes back down 20 min later they wll buy again...as well as once for a large timeframe from some aspect it can still be looked at as the first hit since the market is still moving to it even though its been hit...and simply some stop hunting taking place from the different agendas in the market....thats my opinion bud...hey man you still have not gotten on skype lately lol
  • #9,292
  • Edited 1:56pm Feb 26, 2009 1:43pm | Edited 1:56pm
Quoting Shermenator
I disagree on that mate....on my opinion a level for a person looks very differnt depending on the timeframe your looking at it ...as well as how your willing to mange the trade out....for a small timeframe it could look like its been a while since it has visited the level since a quick move up from it may seem alot to them meaning if it comes back down 20 min later they wll buy again...as well as once for a large timeframe from some aspect it can still be looked at as the first hit since the market is still moving to it...and simply some stop hunting...

The structure of how the market actually travels to support and resistance is the most important thing...
  • #9,293
  • Feb 26, 2009 1:43pm Feb 26, 2009 1:43pm
Alright guys later going to bed got college in about 3 hours....
  • #9,294
  • Feb 26, 2009 2:36pm Feb 26, 2009 2:36pm
Quoting Thexder
For me once it goes to a target area I consider it done because it went there and fulfilled its immediate destiny....
Thanks for your input as well as Shermenators. I guess this is something I'm going to have to feel out on my own and how the market in general is reacting. I've missed two entries today by just a couple of pips that would have yielded decent results and both these areas were retested and gave me an opportunity to get back in. I am not entirely sure how to handle this situation just yet, so I stood aside. Just trying to make some sense, if there is any, of these multiple touches (1hr to 4hr time frame with this example).

Either way I agree that the first time there is more significant and likely to produce more immediate results although one could argue that the 3rd or 4th or whatever touch will be the one that rebounds and runs in your favor for a while. I'm not going to worry about that much right now. Just trying to identify the low risk, high probability S/R's and I think I've done well with that so far this morning. Just a couple pips off from having a profitable day...but BE is not bad either.
  • #9,295
  • Feb 26, 2009 3:10pm Feb 26, 2009 3:10pm
Quoting G550
Either way I agree that the first time there is more significant and likely to produce more immediate results although one could argue that the 3rd or 4th or whatever touch will be the one that rebounds and runs in your favor for a while.
To further what I was saying (it's all new to me too, I'm trying to figure it out for myself) about the first touch being the reliable one and then not so much for the next ones, I meant it within the context of the current time frame (say 5 minutes to exaggerate) and also within the current fragment in time...so if there is a drop within 4 bars and 70 pips down to a demand/target area, I'm just saying that if it shoots back up and then again comes back immediately down, all within the current momentum (while it is settling), that's what I won't touch again because it already made its move for now. So when I said I would wait for the next setup, it means a clear settling has occurred and price has moved away clearly and if it wants to come back again, re-evaluate that next setup on that time frame or if it's a 4 hour time frame, it's a whole new story also to look for the next setup and there could be lots of opportunity at that price. So like a bouncing ball it's the first touch, then if the ball bounces several times I get suspicious of it...someone has to catch it and throw or drop it again and then it's a new setup to take.

I haven't traded this week, I've been watching the setups and trying to find my way of interpreting when it's something to take or avoid.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #9,296
  • Feb 26, 2009 3:15pm Feb 26, 2009 3:15pm
Quoting Shermenator
.hey man you still have not gotten on skype lately lol
Yeah I've been laying low and my sleep schedule is a mess. I'm only really watching the charts from work (no skype there) after sunrise lately in the US session, but even then I only get to glance occasionally. Maybe I should cash in some vacation time when I think I'm ready to take more trades and sit through the whole session for a few weeks. I seem to miss things at 3am to 5am that I would have traded if I were around.
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #9,297
  • Feb 26, 2009 4:13pm Feb 26, 2009 4:13pm
Quoting Thexder
To further what I was saying (it's all new to me too, I'm trying to figure it out for myself) about the first touch being the reliable one and then not so much for the next ones, I meant it within the context of the current time frame (say 5 minutes to exaggerate) and also within the current fragment in time...so if there is a drop within 4 bars and 70 pips down to a demand/target area, I'm just saying that if it shoots back up and then again comes back immediately down, all within the current momentum (while it is settling), that's what I won't...
Good point. Every time price comes back down to a level of demand for example, I look at at as additional orders being filled at that price level. When all the orders run out, that's when price will make a more determined move. When that happens and how does one determine that...not too sure. But if price keeps bouncing off a level, why not trust it until it is absolutely broken? The great thing about trading this way is that you can keep a relatively tight stop loss since you are either selling or buying at near exact point of demand/supply as opposed to waiting for price to run a bit then board a moving train.

I've been following this thread lately and been experimenting with this method from before discovering this thread and I must say, after watching Sam Seiden's videos on FXStreet...I have a whole new outlook on how to trade.

I hope to be around here much more to further learn from more experienced guys and hopefully have my trades up for commentary and examination.
  • #9,298
  • Feb 26, 2009 8:12pm Feb 26, 2009 8:12pm
Quoting G550
But if price keeps bouncing off a level, why not trust it until it is absolutely broken?
For me the reason is similar to the bouncing ball in the case of it bouncing off that level several times within the same confined time zone (rather than making a distinct move away and then coming back)....each bounce may be smaller and give less room to get to break even and you might get in a situation of being +5 in profit, holding on for it to develop, and before you know it you're -20 because that was the last bounce...
"Support and Resistance either holds or it doesn't." -Anonymous hillbilly
  • #9,299
  • Feb 26, 2009 9:10pm Feb 26, 2009 9:10pm
off topic for a bit - regarding the Sam Seidens' videos.
i got this link

http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contr...1-e9bf77216d2f

Thexder / G550 - which video are you guys referring to?
  • #9,300
  • Feb 26, 2009 9:26pm Feb 26, 2009 9:26pm
Quoting Knightz
off topic for a bit - regarding the Sam Seidens' videos.
i got this link

http://www.fxstreet.com/search/contr...1-e9bf77216d2f

Thexder / G550 - which video are you guys referring to?
I think it was this one:

Multiple Low Risk Forex Entries With Support and Resistance
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