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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #18,861
  • Feb 24, 2009 2:54pm Feb 24, 2009 2:54pm
thank ,
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  • #18,862
  • Feb 24, 2009 3:03pm Feb 24, 2009 3:03pm
Quoting orangeRANGE
Well done Palmer

I have read through your pdf. I must say you are the most devoted trader for this method.

Thank you so much for your great contribution so far. Give me a call if you wanna make a visit to my place someday. Will give you a warm welcome

Congratulation again...mate...
I'll let you know when I start packing my bags!
  • #18,863
  • Feb 24, 2009 11:32pm Feb 24, 2009 11:32pm
Quoting ali_walji5
head and shoulders on the 4hr e/u macd...? (see ticks and arrows)
but unsure about going short!!
beginner to the system, made 4 trades, 3 right, 1 wrong. 200 pips profit so far
thanks
3/4 succesful trades with 200 pips in the bag...not bad for a beginner...
Post your idea regarding the system always...you shall learn and benefit yourself by that...
Good work and welcome to the club...
  • #18,864
  • Feb 24, 2009 11:52pm Feb 24, 2009 11:52pm
hello Fellas,

Just my thought on the Eur/Usd........

My bias is slightly to the upside though the moving averages are too bunched up together. The 4H however, price has crossed over the 89sma, has since retraced back to it which happens to be where the 8ema sits as well and seems to be moving away from it with a TC signal on the MACD..............

The Daily charts show price has broken daily trend line and we might see test of the 89sma around the 1.3100 price point.........
Keeping Life Simple
  • #18,865
  • Feb 25, 2009 2:06am Feb 25, 2009 2:06am
Quoting Phillip Nel
4Hour is in a huge triangle. MACD has not given TC yet but I will treat this trade as a positional trade to be part of a move should it happen. There has to be some clear prove in the price action that supports this action. The bottom TL has been tested, then there was a retracement to the 21ema and then price came down forming a spinner followed by another down candle. There is also a possible sHs on the 4H. Price has shot up over 200pips making a false breakout above top TL and turned around all the way back to bottom TL. If the price is going...
Hi, all
I read Phillip’s post positional trade, but I have one question that’s why Phillip set SL on 1.5466
and TP on 1.5400??
Could anybody help me? Thank you!!
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  • #18,866
  • Feb 25, 2009 3:00am Feb 25, 2009 3:00am
Quoting yuyudada
Hi, all
I read Phillip’s post positional trade, but I have one question that’s why Phillip set SL on 1.5466
and TP on 1.5400??
Could anybody help me? Thank you!!
Yuyudada, The SL should be outside the signal candle - I.e. in this example the spinner which he has entered on has a high of 1.5461. By placing the stop just a little above that high which also includes your spread ensures that if you are correct, market momentum & rhythm should not push the price past this level.

Risk / Reward must also be considered if the signal candle is larger that 70 / 100 pips.

Does that help?

Cheers WG
  • #18,867
  • Feb 25, 2009 3:26am Feb 25, 2009 3:26am
TP is also a couple of pips above a TL,sometimes the price doesnt even touch a TL but reverse a couple of pips above or below it if the emotion is strong enough,to avoid this his set up TP a couple of pips above. It wouldnt be nice if he miss the TP for 5 pips. 1,5400 is also a "round" number and this psychological number act also as S/R levels sometimes.


Quoting welshguy2000
Yuyudada, The SL should be outside the signal candle - I.e. in this example the spinner which he has entered on has a high of 1.5461. By placing the stop just a little above that high which also includes your spread ensures that if you are correct, market momentum & rhythm should not push the price past this level.

Risk / Reward must also be considered if the signal candle is larger that 70 / 100 pips.

Does that help?

Cheers WG
  • #18,868
  • Feb 25, 2009 3:33am Feb 25, 2009 3:33am
  •  nerd
  • | Joined Jul 2008 | Status: Fate loves the fearless. | 48 Posts
Quoting Palmer
Took a few days off to do some 'stuff'....

There is a new pdf on the website called Plan 415. Visit the website and click on the Plan 415 link. This is a method that encompasses the 4hr, 1hr, and 5min entries. But, before attempting to trade the lower timeframes you must understand what the 4hr charts are telling you. The pdf is useless unless you know how to read the 4hr charts so spend a lot of time there. I posted before that I was with the 4hr charts for a good year before looking at the lower timeframes. Visit Phillip's 5 min intraday...

great work palmer...very helpful especially in very fast and very slow markets...i hve been followin market rhythm for more than 7 months now n hve enjoyed n benefited from every bit of it..
  • #18,869
  • Feb 25, 2009 4:38am Feb 25, 2009 4:38am
Hi all...

Still watching EU move here... the previous two candles formed a Bearish Engulfing pattern supported with Double Top formation in MACD.

Might see 3 OUTSIDE DOWN pattern developing but neither SHORT/LONG seems comfortable right now.

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,870
  • Feb 25, 2009 7:38am Feb 25, 2009 7:38am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Might see 3 OUTSIDE DOWN pattern developing but neither SHORT/LONG seems comfortable right now.
Hello again...just to add my previous post here...

We can see a clearer view of this pair using h1 (1/4 period of time from my h4 above = 5 days trading) here.

At present, things look good for short but keep your sight tight to price level 1.27 and Sup TL below it.

Wanna sleep now...

HAVE A LOOK AND MAKE YOUR OWN THOUGHT
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  • #18,871
  • Feb 25, 2009 7:58am Feb 25, 2009 7:58am
i am wondering eurusd is at consolidation state. I would like to stay aside waiting for the trend. what do ur guys think. Philip did tell us patience is the name of the game.
  • #18,872
  • Feb 25, 2009 8:50am Feb 25, 2009 8:50am
many pips in small time frame but these days are not good for H4 ,hope it starts trending soon
edit:saw ur post after refreshing fishmen. i am in same idea with u
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  • #18,873
  • Feb 25, 2009 10:49am Feb 25, 2009 10:49am
The EURUSD is not 4hr friendly lately because of the lack of rhythm, daily even worse. This consolidation periods happen throughout the year as the strong rhythm periods do as well. I'm just hoping that this pair does not follow the US indexes lead and remain stagnant for a while. Unless you have the time to follow a shorter timeframe then that's where you might find some more opportunities but if the 4hr is stuck in a range, keeping your lower timeframe trading within that range as well. There have been weeks that have gone by where I didn't like what the 4hr was showing and would just try to pick off a few on a lower timeframe chart here and there.

Waiting game right now....

Thanks for the thank on the pdf. Even if you follow a different shorter timeframe method you can still use the 4hr as a footprint...
  • #18,874
  • Feb 25, 2009 6:58pm Feb 25, 2009 6:58pm
Hi Everyone here!

thank you for this thread and your reply, which let me, newcomer to understand this great system.

I thought the core idea of 4H MACD system is the market rythm, which is descriped by some magic MAs. From Philipe's suggestion, the rythm could be divided into two types

1. TC (trend continue)
Go through SMA200 Or SMA89, retracing them, and go on.
2. CT (Counter trend)
pull back and go through EMA21, test it, and trend continue.
3. Consulidation.
Philipe defines the areas, SMA200 and SMA89, SMA89 and EMA21, SMA200 and EMA21, which might let price make consulidation.
from my observation, I found the following rythm
if price goes up or down to SMA89 or SMA200, and stopped by them, then price prefers to enter into consulidation around EMA8 and EMA21. Just post EU these dasy as description.

Hope everybody could give more idea about market rythm.
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  • #18,875
  • Feb 25, 2009 7:55pm Feb 25, 2009 7:55pm
Quoting Palmer
The EURUSD is not 4hr friendly lately because of the lack of rhythm, daily even worse. This consolidation periods happen throughout the year as the strong rhythm periods do as well. I'm just hoping that this pair does not follow the US indexes lead and remain stagnant for a while. Unless you have the time to follow a shorter timeframe then that's where you might find some more opportunities but if the 4hr is stuck in a range, keeping your lower timeframe trading within that range as well. There have been weeks that have gone by where I didn't like...
I completely agree with your quote...mate...
  • #18,876
  • Feb 25, 2009 7:57pm Feb 25, 2009 7:57pm
Quoting yisa
Hi Everyone here!

thank you for this thread and your reply, which let me, newcomer to understand this great system.

I thought the core idea of 4H MACD system is the market rythm, which is descriped by some magic MAs. From Philipe's suggestion, the rythm could be divided into two types

1. TC (trend continue)
Go through SMA200 Or SMA89, retracing them, and go on.
2. CT (Counter trend)
pull back and go through EMA21, test it, and trend continue.
3. Consulidation.
Philipe defines the areas, SMA200 and SMA89, SMA89 and EMA21, SMA200 and EMA21,...
You heard the game...goodluck...
  • #18,877
  • Feb 25, 2009 8:36pm Feb 25, 2009 8:36pm
Quoting yisa
1. TC (trend continue)
Go through SMA200 Or SMA89, retracing them, and go on.
go back to ema21,and go up again.---up trend
2. CT (Counter trend)
pull back and go through EMA21, test it, and trend continue.
go back to ema21---in a...
\

[color=red]any opions are welcome!!!
  • #18,878
  • Feb 25, 2009 9:59pm Feb 25, 2009 9:59pm
written transcript of phillips mp3 and chart post #4496, very important...he explains it....


This chart and this MP3, you got to have it in your heart, not in your head, in your heart. If you look at the purple rectangle on the chart, the price break through the 89SMA blue line. Point 1, 2, 3 and 4 are just there to let you know that you can establish your market breathing or channel or whatever you want to call it so that you can know in what or between which boundaries does the market moves.

But the main thing is to remember when the price break through the 89 SMA, up or down, it doesn’t matter, as it will come back to the 21 EMA which it did and then it went up to the red number 3 on the trend line, then it came back to that red circle 21 EMA.

All those red circles are all high probabilities trades. They are all of the 21 EMA because we are in an up-trend; except for 4, 5 and 6. 4 is from the 89 SMA as well as the 365 EMA. It gave a nice morning star there. It was highly oversold on the MACD, below the 45 line, horizontal line and that was a high probability trade. So, the market moves away from the 89 SMA, pull back to the 21 EMA, then it move away, pull back to the 21 EMA, moves away, pull back to the 21 EMA.

The only time you do counter-trades, counter-trend trades is when your Risk/Reward Ratio (R/R Ratio) down to the 21 EMA and your stop loss is 1 to 1. But remember, sometime, it only come back to the 8 EMA. You need to keep that in mind as it is a high risk trade unless, if you see just right of number red 3 on top, you will see a lot of bars finding resistance there. If you do a trade somewhere around there, you will be probably very safe to come down to the 21 EMA. That’s how you do it.

The blue circle on top is a counter-trend trade. If you look at the 2nd blue one, you will see that the price come below the 21 EMA and the rule says that; at the end of a run, if it will push below the 21 EMA, it tend to pull back to it, sometime it goes a bit through it and then it come down to the 89 SMA. It’s exactly what happens there.

If you look at the bottom window on the MACD, the pink circles 1, 2 and 3, look at that noise there. You cannot trade the MACD like that, you gone be killed, there is no way you can do it. You have to stick with the motion of the market, around the 21 EMA, around your support and resistance lines, that’s the way to do your deals and it is very important to know that. You have to stick to that, there is no other way you are going to survive by taking every signals.

I still hear people on skype and talking about MACD being busy forming a round top and then there is still a 2 or 3 hours to go. You cannot do that, I mean, you can do it but it is not the way your focus should be. Your focus should be around the price movement, where it is in relation to the moving averages, where it is in relation to your trend lines, where is the movement in relation to your support and resistance lines. That is the way your focus should be. That is: when the MACD gives the signal, all that homework as been done already.

If I am sitting there in front of a 4 hours candle, if I got time to sit there for 4 straight hours, I am analyzing the market. I go to a monthly chart and draw my trend lines, then I go to the weekly’s one, do some in between minor trend lines or support and resistance lines. Then I go to the daily and then go to the 4 hours. Eventually, up and down according to the motion and the rules: what do I anticipate this price is going to do? Is the current movement within the rules? Is it within the system or not? If it is not, I just close it and I walk away. I don’t even think of trading. I do rather 4 or 5 good trades a month then do 10 of which only 4 was good and come breakeven at the end of the day. So, it is not about taking every signals.

Also, another thing that I want to emphasize is not to jump around between 10 currencies. Because you can get a wrong one at currency number one, then you jump to currency number 3 and get another wrong one and then you jump to currency number 8 and get another wrong one, where if you stick at currency number 1, the next signal would have been a good one and maybe the one after that as well. So, instead of having 3 wrong ones in 3 different currencies, you could have 1 wrong and 2 right in the same currency.

So be very careful no to jump around according to MACD signals. You’ve got to look at each pace, motion in relation to the moving averages and in relation to your support and resistance lines. Then, look at market emotions as I said in that summary.

Number red 5, you will see there is a morning star, if you look at 6, there is also a morning star. If you look at number 4 there is also a morning star. That is how you determine the emotions of the market, there is emotions involved in those candles. They tell me that those things have got high probabilities of moving in the right direction. That’s how I do it.

Get your focus on the rules, write it down, make yourself a little copy of this chart and write on it or next to it and try to see and look where the market is satisfying this type of motion. That is where your high probabilities trades are because, then, the Tsunami is over, it means the playing ground is over, this thing got direction now, there is a certain motion, there is a certain rhythm in it and you are going to flow in that rhythm. When you go counter-trend trade, you know that you go against the rhythm and you got to make it very sure that there is enough pips available to do that in a Risk/Reward Ratio, it could be 1 to1 or better, then you take it on.

You got to get this in your heart otherwise you are not going to make it."

hope that helps...
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  • #18,879
  • Feb 26, 2009 2:28am Feb 26, 2009 2:28am
Hi...

Does anyone here know the mq4 file which I can get the same 8, 21 and 89 from h4 in my h1?

Welshguy? Time? Palmer?

many thanks in advance
  • #18,880
  • Feb 26, 2009 5:46am Feb 26, 2009 5:46am
Quoting orangeRANGE
Hi...

Does anyone here know the mq4 file which I can get the same 8, 21 and 89 from h4 in my h1?

Welshguy? Time? Palmer?

many thanks in advance
There is a post here...'somewhere' for that. I'd click on the paperclip icon for the thread and it should show up. I wan't to say it was post # 18,xxxx...that doesn't help very much I know...
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