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4 Hour Strategy (MACD)

  • #3,101
  • Mar 28, 2007 11:15am Mar 28, 2007 11:15am
Looked like a round top was forming 8/10 hrs ago.....however now it appears heads and shoulders might....we need 1 more bar confirmation...is this a correct assessement? paper trading for few months......however....this happening near the histigram zero makes this a weaker signal? is this right to u guyz.....or am i way out there?
thanx in advance
got to go to work now
  • #3,102
  • Mar 28, 2007 11:30am Mar 28, 2007 11:30am
Quoting ejiexe
bad trade there!
the position was close @ 1.2096.
great loss
after all, it was not a bad plan at all. Your TP is reached. My TP for 1 lot was slighter lower @1.2155 and is already closed. I have 1 remaining.
  • #3,103
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:11pm Mar 28, 2007 1:11pm
Dear phil
i read a pdf file about your strategy. i have some questions.
1- i guess you take position only on MACD signals. is it true?
2-what do moving average on your strategy? nothing?
i cant understand moving average situation on your strategey .
can you explain it to me?
Trade for live not till death
  • #3,104
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:24pm Mar 28, 2007 1:24pm
Quoting Benf
Could you provide your chart screenshot? We have to judge not by the candle, but by MACD bar color, whether it is bullish (blue) or bearish (red).
Sorry, I meant the colour of the bar on MACD. My chart looks exactly like the one Pepsi cola has put. So, it was a false signal.
  • #3,105
  • Edited 1:58pm Mar 28, 2007 1:35pm | Edited 1:58pm
Quoting ira
My chart looks exactly like the one Pepsi cola has put
PipsiCola's chart has only a one unfinished bearish bar that is not a TC signal at all. We have to have at least two bars and the more complete (close to the TF end) a second bar/candle is, the more reliable signal it represents.
Ben
  • #3,106
  • Mar 28, 2007 1:44pm Mar 28, 2007 1:44pm
Strange one today. It looked like a round top at the start of the day then the TC came and i took that then the next bar round top. Its a very squashed roundtop but roundtop( more like flat top) nevertheless . I took the TC and belatedly the round top although im a bit late on the RT. All on my game account though.

You guys seem to make much use of the coloured MACD. i thought only the patterns mattered and not the bear/bull bars that make the MACD?

I suppose i will have to trawl the thread again to find the significance of that. Unless one of you kind souls can offer me an explanation

Bahram the EMA's are used as profit levels and mood indicators. They are explained in Phils pdf. I suggest you downlad his excercis pdf and the answers as well and work through that.Trust me it take a few read through to sink and I have to read it a few more times but its worthwhile.
  • #3,107
  • Mar 28, 2007 2:01pm Mar 28, 2007 2:01pm
Quoting AriTron
It looked like a round top at the start of the day then the TC came and i took that then the next bar round top.
This occurs very often - you never know in advance what pattern the MACD bars will result in. A configuration that initially looks like a RT/RB may turn into TC in few hours. This is why I accept only the bearish signals during downtrend, bullish on uptrend and both if market is ranging.
Ben
  • #3,108
  • Mar 28, 2007 2:31pm Mar 28, 2007 2:31pm
Anyone looking a possible RB in next 4H candel?
  • #3,109
  • Mar 28, 2007 2:37pm Mar 28, 2007 2:37pm
You make a very simple and yet very smart observation Benf. Thanks.
I think i will do the same from now on. Unless i get a RT or RB near a trendline offering very strong resistance but apart from that stay away
  • #3,110
  • Mar 28, 2007 2:42pm Mar 28, 2007 2:42pm
Just curious, did anyone else lose a bunch of pips on the eur/usd thanks to Ben Bernanke's statement today? I for one did. I took the trend continuation signal, along with the bounce of the 21ema and a t/l I had. 3 good reasons to go long on EUR, only to have my 10pip profit squashed! Perhaps this is a lesson not to trade during speeches?
  • #3,111
  • Mar 28, 2007 2:45pm Mar 28, 2007 2:45pm
Quoting panther_trader
swissy long @1.2117, [email protected], TP [email protected]

what do you thing about it?
Know it is late, and the trade went south for you, but I think you had a great plan! I would have placed my stop a little lower than yours (but it would have been derived in the same way). I take the low, subtract out the spread and subtract out a random number (usually between 8 and 15 depending on my mood and usually to the higher side, especially around the round numbers). You'll get the feel for it as time progresses.

Honestly, I think you did a great job!

May your next trade give you many pips
  • #3,112
  • Mar 28, 2007 2:51pm Mar 28, 2007 2:51pm
a lot of discussion is going on again re: round top and trend continuation. Remember the 1 hour MACD can give us a good idea if it is really a round top or if we may see a TC.

Also, pay attention to price action. It is critical to know what your pair is doing, where it is, etc. If you pay attention to price action and follow MACD signal you will make pips!

This month was a bit slow. However, I have managed to bank 191 pips with only 1 losing trade for the month. Didn't trade alot and only focused on a couple of pairs. Know the pipage is very small compared to all you yen traders, but I'm learning about their movements and will be adding to my arsenal soon .

Remember, this is a full bodied system. We need to become adept at many basic trading techniques. Practice and follow and you will be sucessful!

Best to all,
Pips
  • #3,113
  • Mar 28, 2007 2:52pm Mar 28, 2007 2:52pm
Quoting Benf
This occurs very often - you never know in advance what pattern the MACD bars will result in. A configuration that initially looks like a RT/RB may turn into TC in few hours. This is why I accept only the bearish signals during downtrend, bullish on uptrend and both if market is ranging.
a wise trader once said, "the trend is your friend." and you seem to be as wise
  • #3,114
  • Mar 28, 2007 2:53pm Mar 28, 2007 2:53pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Just curious, did anyone else lose a bunch of pips on the eur/usd thanks to Ben Bernanke's statement today? I for one did. I took the trend continuation signal, along with the bounce of the 21ema and a t/l I had. 3 good reasons to go long on EUR, only to have my 10pip profit squashed! Perhaps this is a lesson not to trade during speeches?
Hi Twoeleven, i guess i missed the speech, there are too many speeches it seem. What do you think of the 4 hr eur$? does it look like a pinbar?
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  • #3,115
  • Edited 3:18pm Mar 28, 2007 3:15pm | Edited 3:18pm
Quoting O'Zeeke
Hi Twoeleven, i guess i missed the speech, there are too many speeches it seem. What do you think of the 4 hr eur$? does it look like a pinbar?
To be honest...I'm not quite sure on this pair right now. It looks like a downward move is coming, we had the pin bar and price went right through the 21ema along with the MACD sell signal. So it would seem like a short signal.

However, 1.3300 is a psych level and we are in an uptrend...so (by the dips in an uptrend perhaps?). Also, MACD is now at the zero line and could go back up for a TC signal?

It's probably best to wait and see how things develop.

Was just looking at your Pinbar again...not sure it quite fits the definition of a pin bar, but I'm not very familiar with them. However, it does look like a "tail" pointing up...as Phillip has mentioned before.
  • #3,116
  • Mar 28, 2007 3:23pm Mar 28, 2007 3:23pm
Quoting Nacho_1975
Anyone looking a possible RB in next 4H candel?
The 1 hour could signal a trend continuation just as easily (no MACD divergence) so be prepared...in the mean time I plan to take Jasper Friendly Bear's advice
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Stay calm, be brave, wait for the signs - Jasper Friendly Bear
  • #3,117
  • Mar 28, 2007 3:25pm Mar 28, 2007 3:25pm
Hey all,

Just goes to show you that there are more than 1 ways to skin a cat. I originally took this entry at 1.1290 after the second morning star on the 15 minute after checking out the 1hr MACD and saw the T/C. I got out for the news this morning to protect my profits. I then re-entered on the T/C on the 4 hr. I have made 55 pips and my stops are moved to B/E. The huge bummer is when it retraced back for the bounce off the T/L I was at work. If I had been home I would have drew a counter on the first red candle I saw and exited when it broke that. Then I could have gotten back in on the bounce with double lots and really been up by now. I expect this to go all the way to the top of the channel (1.1425) by time its done. I intend to ride this trde until it hits the channel top or breaks that uptrend line it is currently riding on

J
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  • #3,118
  • Mar 28, 2007 4:13pm Mar 28, 2007 4:13pm
Quoting Tw0eleven
Just curious, did anyone else lose a bunch of pips on the eur/usd thanks to Ben Bernanke's statement today? I for one did. I took the trend continuation signal, along with the bounce of the 21ema and a t/l I had. 3 good reasons to go long on EUR, only to have my 10pip profit squashed! Perhaps this is a lesson not to trade during speeches?
I was tracking this pair and saw both formations and stayed out from it.
  • #3,119
  • Mar 28, 2007 4:22pm Mar 28, 2007 4:22pm
[quote=pips4uandme;256619]a lot of discussion is going on again re: round top and trend continuation. Remember the 1 hour MACD can give us a good idea if it is really a round top or if we may see a TC.


Ive listened to Phils one hours stratedgy and reading what youve said pips it seems that if you have a RT or RB forming on the 4 hour then the confirmation signal on the 1 hour is a trend continuation. Am i right in assuming this?

Thanks
  • #3,120
  • Mar 28, 2007 4:26pm Mar 28, 2007 4:26pm
Quoting hard1head1
Hey all,

Just goes to show you that there are more than 1 ways to skin a cat. I originally took this entry at 1.1290 after the second morning star on the 15 minute after checking out the 1hr MACD and saw the T/C. I got out for the news this morning to protect my profits. I then re-entered on the T/C on the 4 hr. I have made 55 pips and my stops are moved to B/E. The huge bummer is when it retraced back for the bounce off the T/L I was at work. If I had been home I would have drew a counter on the first red candle I saw and exited when it broke that. Then I could have gotten back in on the bounce with double lots and really been up by now. I expect this to go all the way to the top of the channel (1.1425) by time its done. I intend to ride this trde until it hits the channel top or breaks that uptrend line it is currently riding on

J

Jim,

great trade and great thinking!!!!
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