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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #6,321
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:54pm Feb 24, 2009 12:54pm
Quoting McQueen68
100 tsl triggered at 2800 (+25)....

going to sit & watch pa...

g/l & g/t 2 all...
Hi

Thanks for posting these - it helps.

I see, even though your tsl was hit, you still put a few pips in your account. Do you trail your stop loss as soon as the price moves in your favour or do you wait until you can move it to breakeven? I ask because I've been using the MT4 trailling stop, which waits until the price moves past breakeven by the amount of the tsl before it starts trailing.

Cheers
Jellybean
  • #6,322
  • Feb 24, 2009 1:21pm Feb 24, 2009 1:21pm
Tried a similar system on an hourly and picked up 52.5 pips on eur/usd long. I should be more patient bc the uptrend is still strong - 1.300 is calling since the S&P is pushing higher as another 1.5 hours to close.
  • #6,323
  • Feb 24, 2009 3:48pm Feb 24, 2009 3:48pm
Quoting Jellybean
Hi

Thanks for posting these - it helps.

I see, even though your tsl was hit, you still put a few pips in your account. Do you trail your stop loss as soon as the price moves in your favour or do you wait until you can move it to breakeven? I ask because I've been using the MT4 trailling stop, which waits until the price moves past breakeven by the amount of the tsl before it starts trailing.

Cheers
Jellybean
I trail it manually, Jellybean...immediately if i'm monitoring and intermittently(sp?) if i'm not...
  • #6,324
  • Feb 24, 2009 7:56pm Feb 24, 2009 7:56pm
Quoting jacko
Hi BB

We may be seeing the start of a whole new order of how the world does business. It is the return to basics of banking.
The dominance of the “shadow” banking industry, (investment banking and all their exotic/toxic banking products) is clearly being crushed and a return to basic banking services is rising like a phoenix.
[font=Verdana]As I have said previously, the best asset class to be in at the present time is good old fashioned liquid currencies. Cash is king. Cash...
Jacko, Thanks for your post. Your posts are always smart and make a whole lot of sense. What is your outlook on deflation vs inflation? What is your outlook on the E/U in the short run and long run?
  • #6,325
  • Feb 25, 2009 12:02am Feb 25, 2009 12:02am
Quoting McQueen68
I trail it manually, Jellybean...immediately if i'm monitoring and intermittently(sp?) if i'm not...
Thanks again. In the past I've been stopped out because I trailed too quickly only to see the price move in my favour. However, with anti-hedging it makes a lot more sense to trail straight away. It will be done ...

Cheers
Jellybean
  • #6,326
  • Feb 25, 2009 3:48am Feb 25, 2009 3:48am
Quoting nickj
Check out Chris Martensen's website and watch his crash course, he does a pretty good job of explaining money creation and the effect on the economy.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

Put in a sell limit at 2800 before I went to bed last night. Short at 2800. We'll see if we can break 2660 today.
This is well worth the time. Goes through the history from gold standard to fraction reserve banking in a cartoon that makes it easy for anyone to understand.

http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-9050474362583451279
Don't wish it were easier, wish you were better. ~ Jim Rohn
  • #6,327
  • Feb 25, 2009 3:51am Feb 25, 2009 3:51am
Quoting forexmick
Jacko, Thanks for your post. Your posts are always smart and make a whole lot of sense. What is your outlook on deflation vs inflation? What is your outlook on the E/U in the short run and long run?
Hi Forexmick

Thanks for your kind words.

In regards to your question on inflation/deflation, at the moment we are facing deflation. We will continue to see deflation until the $50 Trillion of total debt (which is swamping the $2 Trillion of bailout funds) is absorbed. Then the result of this massive expansion of the monetary supply will be seen in significantly higher inflation. But the immediate deflation must run its course, and that has a long way before it is played out. As I have said previously, the best asset class to be in at the present time is good old fashioned liquid currencies. Cash is king. Cash will continue to increase in value as the global deflationary de-leveraging occurs over the coming years. Cash already buys three times as much oil, twice as much stocks and twice as much real estate compared to just a year ago.

In regard to your question on the EUR/USD, I think it is a very difficult question. As long as there is massive fear and gloom, we will continue to see "flight to quality" and continued inflow into USD. How long that fear and gloom continues is a day-by day situation.


.
Jacko
  • #6,328
  • Feb 25, 2009 6:52am Feb 25, 2009 6:52am
I keep hearing people talk about the deterioation of the dollar, to keep selling the dollar and by eur/usd. it all over these forums. I keep thinking they must be mistaken. Why would we keep sending usd to other world central banks if it were not in demand and have better value than other currencies. well, i guess to be winners, there has to be losers. If there buying, i am waiting to sell aginst usd.

Good morning all
BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #6,329
  • Feb 25, 2009 9:59am Feb 25, 2009 9:59am
I implimented your dailys, weeklies to an hourly strategy and in the last 2 days and I've been up almost 100 pips on Eur/USD.

I'm not jumping around pairs either. One pair is more than enough to make it in forex as you said.

My charts now look as a clean sheet of paper with only Support and Resistance levels and Fib with no clutter of 6 different MAs and bunch of other studies. No more 5 min, 15 min charts and trading in and out constantly only to lose money. I used to trade lets say 10 times a day and made money on 6 to 7 of them but gave it a way with the losers. It's all because of the inaccuracy of falls break outs to the upside or to the downside.

It's a proof of "less is more" as far as I can tell.
  • #6,330
  • Feb 25, 2009 12:32pm Feb 25, 2009 12:32pm
I'm pleased to see you still around, Jacko . Your comment that it's difficult to say what the EURUSD is going to do is reassuring for me.

I've been struggling to keep faith in the daily down trend because I see messy consolidation between 1.2300 & 1.3000 on the weekly and daily charts and the daily chart seems to be struggling to penetrate it - it still hasn't made a lower low. In your descriptions of the method at the beginning of the thread, I think you say the 4 hr chart will be the earliest to show any change of direction.

On the 4-hr I had a nice 3-touch trendline up until the 16:00 candle on 25th. What would you look for in the 4 hr chart that would cause you to think short trades are too risky?

Cheers
Jellybean
  • #6,331
  • Feb 25, 2009 1:32pm Feb 25, 2009 1:32pm
Quoting Jellybean
I'm pleased to see you still around, Jacko . Your comment that it's difficult to say what the EURUSD is going to do is reassuring for me.

I've been struggling to keep faith in the daily down trend because I see messy consolidation between 1.2300 & 1.3000 on the weekly and daily charts and the daily chart seems to be struggling to penetrate it - it still hasn't made a lower low. In your descriptions of the method at the beginning of the thread, I think you say the 4 hr chart will be the earliest to show any change of direction.

On the 4-hr I...
Here's my 2 cents.....

Short term (h1... yes I know it's noise) resistance seems to be sitting around 1.2760 since breaking the h4 support trend line. I think the market is in limbo right now. As long as the broken h4 trend line holds to the upside, then i think we would need a 4 hour close below 1.27 to signal more downward movement.

It's a tough call right now.... for the time being one could just play the range btwn 1.27 - 1.29/30.

Constructive analysis anyone else..??
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  • #6,332
  • Feb 25, 2009 2:03pm Feb 25, 2009 2:03pm
  •  hansnl
  • | Joined May 2007 | Status: don't get shot trade small lots | 83 Posts
Bonjour,

First post here, as a noise trader , really fed up with 20 to 40 trades a day and lousy results.
Finding this tread is a nice surprise I just read it ones and started for the 2e time.

I just created my longer time frame system on daily and 3 hour base, with bring me more pips as ever, so I surely quitting this short time nonsense.

Will be back soon

regards Hans...
  • #6,333
  • Feb 25, 2009 4:08pm Feb 25, 2009 4:08pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
Here's my 2 cents.....

Short term (h1... yes I know it's noise) resistance seems to be sitting around 1.2760 since breaking the h4 support trend line. I think the market is in limbo right now. As long as the broken h4 trend line holds to the upside, then i think we would need a 4 hour close below 1.27 to signal more downward movement.

It's a tough call right now.... for the time being one could just play the range btwn 1.27 - 1.29/30.

Constructive analysis anyone else..??
I don't really range trade in the up and down sense. I would sell at the top of the range, but I wouldn't try to pick a bottom in a downtrend...

This is why the TS is the only thing that takes me out of the market, all I know is it's going down (or the way of the major trend) I don't know where it'll stop, but I know how much I want to lose...
  • #6,334
  • Feb 25, 2009 5:40pm Feb 25, 2009 5:40pm
Quoting jcalow
Just thought I'd say Hi! New to this thread and been reading through over the weekend. I definately agree that this pair still has some way to go before we see an uptrend. Placed my first trade by the rules of this system this morning @ 1.2750 (that's before I realised Jacko's definition of a round number is one ending "00"!!). This trade is currently hanging in profit by 33 pips!
Ok, just incase anyone is interested, this previous trade of mine was stopped out for a profit of 36 pips after i changed my trailing sl to 50 pips due to the ranging market. Not a bad start! Got a new short entry today at 1.2700. I still think this pair has a good way to go yet. Not sure what brokers people are using but on my charts i think it is a great sign that we have had three near enough similar daily highs, coupled with the fact that 23rd made a large bullish price spike that was forced back bearish by resistance. All reassuing signs that we can continue selling. Price appears to be winding up tight now and i'm hoping for a hard break of the support around 1.2660 region tomorrow.
  • #6,335
  • Feb 25, 2009 5:44pm Feb 25, 2009 5:44pm
Quoting jcalow
Ok, just incase anyone is interested, this previous trade of mine was stopped out for a profit of 36 pips after i changed my trailing sl to 50 pips due to the ranging market. Not a bad start!
I'm interested...

Sounds like a great start. I think price has 2500 in it's sight once it gets past 2700...so we should have a good run down.

I am in a trade right now with +120 pips and my TSL has 20 pips locked in.
  • #6,336
  • Feb 25, 2009 8:42pm Feb 25, 2009 8:42pm
Quoting jacko
Hi Forexmick

Thanks for your kind words.

In regards to your question on inflation/deflation, at the moment we are facing deflation. We will continue to see deflation until the $50 Trillion of total debt (which is swamping the $2 Trillion of bailout funds) is absorbed. [font=Verdana]Then the result of this massive expansion of the monetary supply will be seen in significantly higher inflation. But the immediate deflation must run its course, and that has a long way before it is played out. As...
Thanks Jacko for your reply. In all your posts you make sense and reduce difficult things to easy understandable comments. I am getting more confident about placing more money into this forex caper. It agree with you that it is the best asset to be in. My shares and house have taken a big beating. I wish I had read your posts a year ago.
Please keep posting here.
  • #6,337
  • Feb 26, 2009 12:32am Feb 26, 2009 12:32am
Quoting PiPsAddict
Here's my 2 cents.....

Short term (h1... yes I know it's noise) resistance seems to be sitting around 1.2760 since breaking the h4 support trend line. I think the market is in limbo right now. As long as the broken h4 trend line holds to the upside, then i think we would need a 4 hour close below 1.27 to signal more downward movement.

It's a tough call right now.... for the time being one could just play the range btwn 1.27 - 1.29/30.

Constructive analysis anyone else..??
Thanks for your 2 cents worth

I'm also watching 1.2700. Beyond that I don't see anything to hold up the fall until about 1.2500. I'm happier now that the 4-hr chart's made a lower high and on it's way to a lower low, which brings all my timeframes into line. My only reservation about entering around 1.2700 is that it's a bit far from any reasonable daily trend line. But I guess we'll see soon...

Cheers
Jellybean

P.S. Just triggered a stop sell at 1.2688. Here's hoping ...
  • #6,338
  • Feb 26, 2009 12:50am Feb 26, 2009 12:50am
Quoting Jellybean
Thanks for your 2 cents worth

I'm also watching 1.2700. Beyond that I don't see anything to hold up the fall until about 1.2500. I'm happier now that the 4-hr chart's made a lower high and on it's way to a lower low, which brings all my timeframes into line. My only reservation about entering around 1.2700 is that it's a bit far from any reasonable daily trend line. But I guess we'll see soon...

Cheers
Jellybean

P.S. Just triggered a stop sell at 1.2688. Here's hoping ...
I hear ya about the 1.27 being in no mans land with respect the the daily TL's. PA @ 1.27 is proving to be quite solid. Obvious that there are lots of buy orders sitting down there.

I would feel more comfortable shorting off 1.29 than trying to short @ 1.27 w/ a sell stop. Even as I write this, PA just bounced hard off 1.2682 and shot north. I would like to short @ 1.27, but think I will wait for a significant close below there and then short on a retest. I'd hate to miss the initial plunge, but it seems the safer trade given the PA around that level all week.

If we do below 1.27 here tonight, then I see first support around 1.2640-50 area. Next significant past that would be 1.2550 area. Just my opinion of course. I'm still learning the ropes here.

Good luck with your trade!

Cheers,

PiPsAddict
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #6,339
  • Feb 26, 2009 12:57am Feb 26, 2009 12:57am
Quoting PiPsAddict
I hear ya about the 1.27 being in no mans land with respect the the daily TL's. PA @ 1.27 is proving to be quite solid. Obvious that there are lots of buy orders sitting down there.

I would feel more comfortable shorting off 1.29 than trying to short @ 1.27 w/ a sell stop. Even as I write this, PA just bounced hard off 1.2682 and shot north. I would like to short @ 1.27, but think I will wait for a significant close below there and then short on a retest. I'd hate to miss the initial plunge, but it seems the safer trade given the PA around that...
The price went down to 1.2682 because I placed my price magnet at 1.2688

Jellybean
  • #6,340
  • Feb 26, 2009 1:00am Feb 26, 2009 1:00am
Quoting Jellybean
The price went down to 1.2682 because I placed my price magnet at 1.2688

Jellybean
No doubt... I'll place a price magnet down around 1.2550 for ya. That should give you some good pips.....
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