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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #6,301
  • Feb 24, 2009 5:08am Feb 24, 2009 5:08am
From what I understand the European banks are hurting more than anyone. I wish I could find that link i had last week. Pretty much said they were about to go bust if they dont recieve help. I know UK is going to be printing money which will weaken the value of their currency.....

http://www.nowpublic.com/tech-biz/uk-gets-ready-print-money-inflate-its-way-out-debt

Also the US extended the currency swap facilities to other central banks around the world, meaning the US dollar is in greater demand which should lend it strength. So stronger dollar, weaker eur banks, great situation to sell eur/usd on rallies....

If I am wrong about any of this, someone correct me....

Regards
BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #6,302
  • Feb 24, 2009 5:10am Feb 24, 2009 5:10am
Quoting jackdan
My first post to this thread.

Add to that the fact that the euro is not going to be printed like the us$ will be,There are some bailout, but not like the us one.Ok, some problems in eastern countries, but europe will not be alone there, russia will also help to get some influence back.

my 2 cents opinion...
I dont really care about the news,the chart shows you already the whole situation, news included....the euro is against the $ bearish.
Since the worst president ever is gone dollar started to raise..
I dont care about the news because its very time intesive to get them daily and on the other side you dont really know how those affect the market or how people will interpret them.
Anyway when you are doing your backtesting on a currency you ignore the news anyhow, so why shouldnt you be succesfull if you continue to ignore them when you are trading live?
  • #6,303
  • Feb 24, 2009 5:11am Feb 24, 2009 5:11am
Quoting BullsAndBear
From what I understand the European banks are hurting more than anyone. I wish I could find that link i had last week. Pretty much said they were about to go bust if they dont recieve help. I know UK is going to be printing money which will weaken the value of their currency.....

http://www.nowpublic.com/tech-biz/uk-gets-ready-print-money-inflate-its-way-out-debt

Also the US extended the currency swap facilities to other central banks around the world, meaning the US dollar is in greater demand which should lend it strength. So stronger...
Hi BB

We may be seeing the start of a whole new order of how the world does business. It is the return to basics of banking.
The dominance of the “shadow” banking industry, (investment banking and all their exotic/toxic banking products) is clearly being crushed and a return to basic banking services is rising like a phoenix.
As I have said previously, the best asset class to be in at the present time is good old fashioned liquid currencies. Cash is king. Cash will continue to increase in value as the global deflationary de-leveraging occurs over the coming years. Cash already buys three times as much oil, twice as much stocks and twice as much real estate compared to just a year ago.
The government around the world are fighting deflation but deflation is winning because there are a lot more “debt dollars” than “cash dollars”
And now, the US govt (and every other Govt) is rapidly spending our cash on bailing out desperate corporations that have not been profitable for years. ...Cash for Trash. The bailout funds given to the banks easily wiped out the total combined profits of those companies for the last 25 years. We are being suckered into doing the same for the automobile industry.
The Banks are now worth less than half what they have been given in bailout funds….so in reality these zombie banks were not only bankrupt, but they were bankrupt to the value of negative tens of Billions of dollars.

.

Jacko (my little rant for the day!!)
  • #6,304
  • Edited 10:55am Feb 24, 2009 5:21am | Edited 10:55am
McQueen68,

Nice trade results you posted. Like your avatar. He made some great movies (Steve). One of the longest running pursuits @ the time.

BullAndBears

You dig up some very eye opening info that is much appreciated. I agree with your last PM to me, but I have just come to see the picture clearer over the last 3 months. Things are not always as they seem @ the moment. What is the saying, "We can't see the forest for the trees". Anyway tks for the links you post.

Its seem 2830 is holding the upside for now & I'm in @ 2801 times 2, but I could be wrong as JACKO said.

________________________
  • #6,305
  • Feb 24, 2009 5:28am Feb 24, 2009 5:28am
Jacko,

I agree CASH IS KING. Yesterday I had a converstion with a retired banker who is 86 yrs olds & he said the same thing you just posted. He said when banks got away from the core banking business that is when they began to fail. Cash for thrash is just what it is. This banker went on to say the bigger the bank to more exotic there products. I want say what bank he was with, but lets say they are well known.

Tks for your always informative post, views & comments.

__________________________
  • #6,306
  • Feb 24, 2009 5:48am Feb 24, 2009 5:48am
Quoting acetrader
McQueen68,

Nice trade results you posted. Like your avatar. He made some great movies (Steve). One of th longest running pursuits @ the time.

BullAndBears

You dig up some very eye opening info that is much appreciated. I agree with your last PM to me, but I have just come to see the picture clearer over the last 3 months. Things are not always as they seem @ the moment. What is the saying, "We can't see the forest for the trees". Anyway tks for the links you post.

Its seem 2830 is holding the upside for now & I'm in @ 2801 times 2, but...
thanks, but it's just simple employment of jacko's strategy in the tf you choose to trade...

yeah, on the day i was born my father was in the theatre watching, "bullitt"...his brother in law came in and told him i was just born...they both ended up watching the rest of the flick before going to the hospital...lol
  • #6,307
  • Feb 24, 2009 5:56am Feb 24, 2009 5:56am
E/$ sub 1.2800 now, but how far it will go is the question.

McQueen68.....That is an outstanding movie, but not being shown much any more. Trading the JACKO way provides a way to recover if you make a mistake. Nice concise way to trade.
  • #6,308
  • Feb 24, 2009 6:07am Feb 24, 2009 6:07am
My stop was hit last night @ 2765...looks like 2800 held and I put my AH in after it moved 50 pips away from my SL. Lets see what happens.

Good Morning all!
  • #6,309
  • Feb 24, 2009 6:19am Feb 24, 2009 6:19am
Quoting jacko
Hi BB

[font=Verdana]We may be seeing the start of a whole new order of how the world does business. It is...
Hi Jacko,

Sorry for my ignorance. I was hoping you could enlighten me on something. I came accross a film last couple days that describes how the banks get money, called a fractional banking system. It goes on to say that most of the banks' wealth is pretty much created out of thin air. A deposit is made from the reserve, say 10bil, the bank then just makes up another 9bil out of thin air based on what it has in reserves. The part i dont get is, if the money just came out of thin air, so it never really existed in the first place, how could that bankrupt the bank. They simply dont have what never was.........?

I think it may have something to do with the debt created by the ghost currency, but i really dont know the whole picture?

Thanks in advance if you have any insight.
BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #6,310
  • Feb 24, 2009 6:37am Feb 24, 2009 6:37am
Zeitgeist movie, by any chance?
  • #6,311
  • Feb 24, 2009 6:39am Feb 24, 2009 6:39am
BullAndBears,

Good question & I too have been pondering the same thing since viewing the film.
  • #6,312
  • Feb 24, 2009 6:42am Feb 24, 2009 6:42am
Quoting jackdan
Zeitgeist movie, by any chance?
yep, thats the one. gooood flick.

BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #6,313
  • Feb 24, 2009 6:49am Feb 24, 2009 6:49am
The Sand Pebbles and The Thomas Crown Affair are two of my favorites. I recently started watching Steve Mcqueens whole filmography...I love old movies and he was The King of Cool.
  • #6,314
  • Feb 24, 2009 7:12am Feb 24, 2009 7:12am
Quoting BullsAndBear
Hi Jacko,

Sorry for my ignorance. I was hoping you could enlighten me on something. I came accross a film last couple days that describes how the banks get money, called a fractional banking system. It goes on to say that most of the banks' wealth is pretty much created out of thin air. A deposit is made from the reserve, say 10bil, the bank then just makes up another 9bil out of thin air based on what it has in reserves. The part i dont get is, if the money just came out of thin air, so it never really existed in the first place, how could that...

Check out Chris Martensen's website and watch his crash course, he does a pretty good job of explaining money creation and the effect on the economy.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

Put in a sell limit at 2800 before I went to bed last night. Short at 2800. We'll see if we can break 2660 today.
  • #6,315
  • Feb 24, 2009 8:19am Feb 24, 2009 8:19am
Quoting BullsAndBear
Hi Jacko,

Sorry for my ignorance. I was hoping you could enlighten me on something. I came accross a film last couple days that describes how the banks get money, called a fractional banking system. It goes on to say that most of the banks' wealth is pretty much created out of thin air. A deposit is made from the reserve, say 10bil, the bank then just makes up another 9bil out of thin air based on what it has in reserves. The part i dont get is, if the money just came out of thin air, so it never really existed in the first place, how could that...
Hi BB

A good explanation of fractional banking is here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Banking (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Banking)

As to how can fractional banking can bankrupt a bank, the best way to look at fractional banking is that it is leverage.

It is similar to a trader putting up a deposit and using leverage to magnify his amount of funds that he is controlling. If the trader makes mistakes,the leverage allows him to lose more than he has. He is therefore bankrupt.

A bank which uses leverage (fractional banking) and makes bad decisions will lose more than it has. It is therefore bankrupt.

That is a reasonably simple explanation, but you get the drift.

.
Jacko
  • #6,316
  • Feb 24, 2009 8:25am Feb 24, 2009 8:25am
Quoting nickj
Check out Chris Martensen's website and watch his crash course, he does a pretty good job of explaining money creation and the effect on the economy.
http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourse

Put in a sell limit at 2800 before I went to bed last night. Short at 2800. We'll see if we can break 2660 today.
Thanks nickj,

That is some scary stuff. Its time to wake up....

Sold @ 2785. plan to hold onto it. price moving up currently...

BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #6,317
  • Feb 24, 2009 8:27am Feb 24, 2009 8:27am
Quoting jacko
Hi BB

A good explanation of fractional banking is here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Banking (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fractional_Banking)

As to how can fractional banking can bankrupt a bank, the best way to look at fractional banking is that it is leverage.

[color=black]It is similar to a trader putting up a deposit and using leverage to magnify his amount of funds that he is controlling. If the trader makes...
Thanks Jacko,

That makes perfect sense.
BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #6,318
  • Feb 24, 2009 9:11am Feb 24, 2009 9:11am
Quoting Jellybean
Hi

I've also been short (from 1.2845) with my TSL is +85 pips and I see potential down to around 1.2400 where there was support in Oct/Nov.

I've just added another short at 1.2720 with a 100 pip SL during the rally from 1.2662 - too soon, I suspect. How would you guys add?

The 50% fib of the fall from 1.2990 to 1.2666 is about 1.2825. Would you set an additional short there? Or is it too far from the major trendline to add?

Any comments would be great.

Cheers
Jellybean
You had that 50% fib point pegged dude. Nice observation. I would have thought that plotting the fibs on a single session would have been too small of a TF to seek a 50% fib entry.....

Well another lesson learned. Writing that one down and preparing for the next trade.

Good trading to all!
Addicted and proud of it!
  • #6,319
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:21pm Feb 24, 2009 12:21pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
You had that 50% fib point pegged dude. Nice observation. I would have thought that plotting the fibs on a single session would have been too small of a TF to seek a 50% fib entry.....

Well another lesson learned. Writing that one down and preparing for the next trade.

Good trading to all!
Thanks for the comment, but it was a bit of good luck really. I was trying looking at the 4 hr chart for the chance to add to my position. However, I still struggle not to get freaked when I see moves the wrong way on the 1 hr chart and I did wonder if it had moved to far down to leave room for a short profit.

Cheers
Jellybean
  • #6,320
  • Feb 24, 2009 12:27pm Feb 24, 2009 12:27pm
Quoting McQueen68
out at 2762 (+183 less 100 ah= +83)

just entered another short at 2825 (50RT 2992-2662) w/ 100tsl
100 tsl triggered at 2800 (+25)....

going to sit & watch pa...

g/l & g/t 2 all...
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