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Where can I learn more about Price Action like those in James16 charts? 9 replies

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james16 Chart Thread

  • #22,321
  • Feb 23, 2009 5:05pm Feb 23, 2009 5:05pm
Quoting jlmac27
I hear you,
You basically start out with say .5% and if price moves against you come in with more at practical levels?Pretty much knowing from the begining you are in a A+ trade?
Correct. In this example i am fading support lvl without any price confirmation on lower tfs.
  • #22,322
  • Feb 23, 2009 5:14pm Feb 23, 2009 5:14pm
Quoting the_wizard
EUR/JPY Daily TF.

Chart 1 shows that price has formed a bear flag - which today tested the upper line of the channel.

Chart 2 shows that it also made a double top.

Chart 3 shows that it also hit the 50% fib of the swing high to low AND formed a pin bar.

I like this setup a lot.

I am mildly wary that USD/JPY has been so strong and today has CONFIRMED the double bottom (by breaking above the peak between) and the EURO/USD is coming into a huge support area.

But still, I think this one is worth a go.

Wizard,
Nice to see you back! I'm sure you have no idea who I am, but I've almost read through the whole forum now so I feel like I 'know' you. (Caught in any lightning storms lately? )

EUR/JPY
I agree with this pinbar. Here is what I've got, most of which you included.

PROS
-50% FIB
- Swing High
- 50 EMA (red)
- 120.00 PPZ (closed 120.07, but will have to break well through it to trigger the pin)

CONS
- Close is not as close to the bottom as I'd like. Would have liked a close under 120.

Will enter on break of pin. First TP at Yellow box/red trendline.

Questions/Comments/Concerns?

Josh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: EURJPY 022409_1.GIF Size: 51 KB
  • #22,323
  • Feb 23, 2009 5:30pm Feb 23, 2009 5:30pm
How about this one? Nice pin off of 50% fib, 81.50 PPZ, and it looks like there is some space to move down.

I'm thinking of taking some profits at the bar highs in the blue rectangle at 79.70. Then I'd be looking at 79.00 for TP2.

What does everyone think? This seems like an A trade to me.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,324
  • Feb 23, 2009 5:33pm Feb 23, 2009 5:33pm
Quoting fxsheep
Hi guys,

noticed a pb on chfjpy daily pin.
pro: good shape, swing high, lots of space, 50% fibo from last drop.
con: ? i don't see any,

what's your thoughts on this one?
thanks!
fxsheep
Here's mine:
Pros
-50% FIB
- 100SMA (Purple)
- Rejected PPZ (yellow box)
- Swing high

Cons
- Friday showed a strong bullish bar, BUOB
- Not as long a nose as I'd like.


What it comes down to though is that I like the EUR/JPY pin better, mainly because of the cons here. Just my 2 from a newbie.

Josh
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,325
  • Feb 23, 2009 5:35pm Feb 23, 2009 5:35pm
Quoting scott087
How about this one? Nice pin off of 50% fib, 81.50 PPZ, and it looks like there is some space to move down.

I'm thinking of taking some profits at the bar highs in the blue rectangle at 79.70. Then I'd be looking at 79.00 for TP2.

What does everyone think? This seems like an A trade to me.
Yeah, I think they will either 1) both work, or 2) both not work.

Hmmmm....
  • #22,326
  • Feb 23, 2009 5:58pm Feb 23, 2009 5:58pm
Quoting Jduester
Yeah, I think they will either 1) both work, or 2) both not work.

Hmmmm....
The thing I don't like about E/J is that it looks like we would be trading right into the area of congestion that we just broke out of. CHF/JPY looks like it has about 60 pips to go before it reaches congestion.

Any input from senior members would be great.

-Scott
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  • #22,327
  • Feb 23, 2009 6:37pm Feb 23, 2009 6:37pm
Hi guys,

I don't see any good setups yet on daily. But here some PB I saw and hope senior members can give comment.

E/U:
Pros - Off RD and PPZ, good PB size.
Cons - Not in space, sort of in congestion area.

G/Cad:
Pros - Off PPZ.
Cons - Close of the PB in the middle though still closed in previous bar, congestion, not in space.

I saw other PB in G/U and E/J as well but since other has posted, so I don't post. But hope any senior members can comment whether is right or wrong. Thanks!
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,328
  • Feb 23, 2009 6:44pm Feb 23, 2009 6:44pm
entered at break of pin at .6400, will look to tp at 63.50 or adjust sl to it. will pull out at ~.6440 if it goes that way instead. (also have sell stop on e/j waiting for break of pin at 118.90, looking for 117.50 tp). i wish good trading to all.
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  • #22,329
  • Feb 23, 2009 6:58pm Feb 23, 2009 6:58pm
Quoting arcus
Hi guys,

I don't see any good setups yet on daily. But here some PB I saw and hope senior members can give comment.

E/U:
Pros - Off RD and PPZ, good PB size.
Cons - Not in space, sort of in congestion area.

G/Cad:
Pros - Off PPZ.
Cons - Close of the PB in the middle though still closed in previous bar, congestion, not in space.

I saw other PB in G/U and E/J as well but since other has posted, so I don't post. But hope any senior members can comment whether is right or wrong. Thanks!
Just my opinion

But days like this I think are what get new traders into trouble. They see bars that qualify, but IMO none of these are all that great. Certainly IMO not worth trading. If not played cautiously and right, you can end up with a bunch of losers on iffy looking bars. None of these bars really jump out as trade me bars.

E/U is at a swing low meaning it could run into trouble real fast with all that traffic. We want these pins at swing highs.

G/C on my chart is barely what I would call a pin. The body is nearly the size of the nose, with a very high close as you stated.

Again just my views, but I see days like this and stand aside.

Mike
  • #22,330
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:06pm Feb 23, 2009 7:06pm
I dropped down to 1 hour today, lost 1%....

Staying on Dailies...

Anyhow, is there any evidence as to which time zone we set our daily charts to results in better or worse results? Dont know which time to select...
Dr. C
  • #22,331
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:09pm Feb 23, 2009 7:09pm
Quoting mbqb11
Just my opinion

But days like this I think are what get new traders into trouble. They see bars that qualify, but IMO none of these are all that great. Certainly IMO not worth trading. If not played cautiously and right, you can end up with a bunch of losers on iffy looking bars. None of these bars really jump out as trade me bars.
...

Mike
Thanks Mike. I think days like this will show us new trader what area not to trade though it might be tempting to force trade. Haven't found any good setups yet, I mean setups that really jump out for days. Am watching 13 pairs but most of the setups are in congestion area, so I stay out. Only stick to Daily/Weekly.

Thanks again Mike.
  • #22,332
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:12pm Feb 23, 2009 7:12pm
Quoting mbqb11
Just my opinion

But days like this I think are what get new traders into trouble....
Mike,

Can you take a look at my posts above regarding CHF/JPY and E/J? Also if anyone has anything to add about my analysis above I'd like to hear it.

Thanks,

Scott
  • #22,333
  • Feb 23, 2009 7:30pm Feb 23, 2009 7:30pm
Quoting mbqb11
Just my opinion

But days like this I think are what get new traders into trouble....
words of wisdom Mike thanks. I thought long and hard and decided to leave the eur/usd pin alone. decided to demo that one and down a number of pips atm. thanks again for the insight.
"Don't trade to trade . . . trade to win." - James16
  • #22,334
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:06pm Feb 23, 2009 8:06pm
Scott,
I am no Mike but have been around for quite a while. I would not touch EUR/JPY because going short would be like trying to run through a brick wall (congestion and support). CHF/JPY does have some room to move, however, I passed on it because the nose it too short and the location is not A+ in my opinion. The 86.50-87.00 area is the nearest A+ area for a short position in my opinion. I have triple confluence in that area (2 fib. and a PPZ). Hope this helps.

Scott

Quoting scott087
Mike,

Can you take a look at my posts above regarding CHF/JPY and E/J? Also if anyone has anything to add about my analysis above I'd like to hear it.

Thanks,

Scott
  • #22,335
  • Edited 8:19pm Feb 23, 2009 8:19pm | Edited 8:19pm
Quoting scott087
Mike,

Can you take a look at my posts above regarding CHF/JPY and E/J? Also if anyone has anything to add about my analysis above I'd like to hear it.

Thanks,

Scott
I do think you have a good chance of seeing the 79.70 area you list as a potential TP 1, but anything past that would require breaking through some tough support, as php just mentioned.

Can I inquire about your entry/SL methods? I'm curious because if you entered on the break of the pin with a SL at the tip of the nose, you're risking something like 140-150 pips with a TP at 60 pips. Those types of odds scare me- Your win percentage would need to be 75-80%+ to stabilize and grow your equity by consistently trading R:R like that.
PipMasterFlex
  • #22,336
  • Feb 23, 2009 8:42pm Feb 23, 2009 8:42pm
Quoting isufreak24
Can I inquire about your entry/SL methods? I'm curious because if you entered on the break of the pin with a SL at the tip of the nose, you're risking something like 140-150 pips with a TP at 60 pips. Those types of odds scare me- Your win percentage would need to be 75-80%+ to stabilize and grow your equity by consistently trading R:R like that.
Every time I have taken a trade using these methods I take profits quickly (40-70 pips) and set the remaining lots to break even so that I don't turn a win into a loss. I'm still new to J16 and I was also wondering how the R:R works here since most here take profits quickly. It's easy to see how 1 loss can take out multiple wins.

If anyone can chime on in R:R while using such large stops on PA setups that would be very helpful.
  • #22,337
  • Feb 23, 2009 9:42pm Feb 23, 2009 9:42pm
What do you guys think of buying on a break when this bar closes in the next 20 minutes? It's coming right off a ppz and looks like it wants to retest and potentially take out 122.

Comments please!

Thanks,

-G550
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
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  • #22,338
  • Feb 23, 2009 9:50pm Feb 23, 2009 9:50pm
Quoting scott087
Mike,

Can you take a look at my posts above regarding CHF/JPY and E/J? Also if anyone has anything to add about my analysis above I'd like to hear it.

Thanks,

Scott
Hey Scott

I don't really like the look of either. On the chf/jpy the close was very high. Yes it was within the prior bar, but if the close is going to be that high creating a larger body then I need a much longer nose to protrude away from the prior bars high. In this case price is already moving up fast so it might not even trigger. If it does then it might make it to the area you have marked(remember those areas are zones) see chart.

As for eur/jpy technically it is not a pin on my chart. As the close did not close within the prior bar. Some might call it pin by proxy but with that said there is just too much under it to hold it up. That whole blue box area can be big big trouble. So again for me no room to run which equals no trade. But it might not even trigger the low. But I would stay out of both.

Hope that helps

Mike
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  • #22,339
  • Feb 23, 2009 10:05pm Feb 23, 2009 10:05pm
Quoting G550
What do you guys think of buying on a break when this bar closes in the next 20 minutes? It's coming right off a ppz and looks like it wants to retest and potentially take out 122.

Comments please!

Thanks,

-G550
Looks like this shot up pretty quick. I don't think I'll be playing this one anymore. I would have preferred a smaller bullish bar so that it would have more room to run after the break. Oh well, moving on...
  • #22,340
  • Feb 23, 2009 10:10pm Feb 23, 2009 10:10pm
Quoting G550
What do you guys think of buying on a break when this bar closes in the next 20 minutes? It's coming right off a ppz and looks like it wants to retest and potentially take out 122.

Comments please!

Thanks,

-G550
Be careful taking a signal off of PA during the Asian session, it often gets reversed at London open so there's not much follow-through. I usually just ignore 1hr/4hr PA during Asian session.
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