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Jacko's Forex House of Pleasure and Pain

  • #6,281
  • Feb 23, 2009 10:12am Feb 23, 2009 10:12am
Quoting dwildes
Excellent! Was worried about you Friday with those shorts - but without pain/losses, there is no learning. So you got all your money back and a lesson - double plus.
HAHA - thanks for the concern. Yes a lesson indeed. I'll be learning for the next 20 years of my life...then I'll be learning how to retire (hopefully).
  • #6,282
  • Feb 23, 2009 10:17am Feb 23, 2009 10:17am
Quoting bgin2end
HAHA - thanks for the concern. Yes a lesson indeed. I'll be learning for the next 20 years of my life...then I'll be learning how to retire (hopefully).
hahaha - that is the plan!
  • #6,283
  • Edited 1:10pm Feb 23, 2009 10:44am | Edited 1:10pm
Hi All,

I'm a newbie to this thread... have read all the posts, pdf's etc... What a great system.

It has been pretty choppy lately, with a slight threat to break up. I had a breach last night of an H4 upper trend line. The move failed just under 1.30 and here we sit now around 1.2725. I think we need a strong move past 1.33 area to change mid term sentiment.

Having said that... here's a question I'm hoping someone can assist me with:

I'm having trouble with the 50% retracement rule. For instance.... at this point in time, where would one have plotted the last swing low/high to gauge where the 50% area lies?

Thanks in advance to everyone. You are all a breath of fresh air amongst all the hyped up, indicator heavy, robot this and that, trading systems in existence.

Good trading,

Jeff
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  • #6,284
  • Feb 23, 2009 11:19am Feb 23, 2009 11:19am
Whew - I am out. Taking my 100 pips for today and now I am waiting for a good entry...we'll see what 2800 and 2900 does to the price. Where are people putting their Fibs???

Good Day and Good Trading
  • #6,285
  • Feb 23, 2009 11:56am Feb 23, 2009 11:56am
Quoting bgin2end
Whew - I am out. Taking my 100 pips for today and now I am waiting for a good entry...we'll see what 2800 and 2900 does to the price. Where are people putting their Fibs???

Good Day and Good Trading
That's what I'd like to know too. I'm somewhat confused as to where one would draw the fib's to get the 50%.

Nice trade btw.... pa seems to be bouncing around the daily and weekly pivots at the moment. Probably a good idea to lock in profits and reassess after asia tonight.

Many pips to all!
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  • #6,286
  • Feb 23, 2009 12:07pm Feb 23, 2009 12:07pm
Quoting bgin2end
Whew - I am out. Taking my 100 pips for today and now I am waiting for a good entry...we'll see what 2800 and 2900 does to the price. Where are people putting their Fibs???

Good Day and Good Trading
I am drawing from 12/31, last significant high to recent low 2/18. that rally friday was nice, but didnt even get to the 38.2 level. Daily still looks like it could rally but the market is so weak. i wasnt on the ball enuff or I would have sold at 2900. I keep jhearing the usd is losing strength. i will be researching some fundamentals today!

Good job on your win. i was also worried about your entry being stopped out from 2800. It may have been slightly premature but i dont think it was a bad decision. you got the primary trend at your back door so thats where a mistake turns into a victory. good job.

BB
Whats happening in EUR/USD should be happening to you!
  • #6,287
  • Feb 23, 2009 1:54pm Feb 23, 2009 1:54pm
Just thought I'd say Hi! New to this thread and been reading through over the weekend. I definately agree that this pair still has some way to go before we see an uptrend. Placed my first trade by the rules of this system this morning @ 1.2750 (that's before I realised Jacko's definition of a round number is one ending "00"!!). This trade is currently hanging in profit by 33 pips!
  • #6,288
  • Feb 23, 2009 2:35pm Feb 23, 2009 2:35pm
Quoting jcalow
Just thought I'd say Hi! New to this thread and been reading through over the weekend. I definately agree that this pair still has some way to go before we see an uptrend. Placed my first trade by the rules of this system this morning @ 1.2750 (that's before I realised Jacko's definition of a round number is one ending "00"!!). This trade is currently hanging in profit by 33 pips!

I love your signature...very important words.

Welcome to the thread, I hope you learn as much as I have/am learning. I am short @ 2710 - in hindsight I should have waited for price to pierce 2700 before entering but as I said...I'm still learning.
  • #6,289
  • Feb 23, 2009 5:53pm Feb 23, 2009 5:53pm
Quoting bgin2end
I love your signature...very important words.

Welcome to the thread, I hope you learn as much as I have/am learning. I am short @ 2710 - in hindsight I should have waited for price to pierce 2700 before entering but as I said...I'm still learning.
According to Jacko's method, wouldn't we wait for price to go below 1.27 and come back up and re-test that level b4 going short again?

Just trying to learn here... maybe I missed something.

Good trading!
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  • #6,290
  • Feb 23, 2009 6:12pm Feb 23, 2009 6:12pm
Quoting PiPsAddict
According to Jacko's method, wouldn't we wait for price to go below 1.27 and come back up and re-test that level b4 going short again?

Just trying to learn here... maybe I missed something.

Good trading!
The short of it, yes. The long of it, I don't think that once it passes 2700 that it will be back for a while (next week sometime). To me, 2700 was pretty good s/r so when it passed, I choose to sell at this point as I feel we'll be around 2500 - 2400 in no time. Hope this helps.
  • #6,291
  • Feb 23, 2009 6:22pm Feb 23, 2009 6:22pm
I dont think this might be necessery,price found already resistance on 1,300 at this level I see also an old weekly TL but not very important.Price closed also below a daily TL,
When I saw that price startet to retrace from 1,2991 it was clear for me that this level is not going to hold .So I short since 1,2950 and dont think about to get out very fast.
  • #6,292
  • Feb 23, 2009 9:56pm Feb 23, 2009 9:56pm
Quoting Pipmaniac
I dont think this might be necessery,price found already resistance on 1,300 at this level I see also an old weekly TL but not very important.Price closed also below a daily TL,
When I saw that price startet to retrace from 1,2991 it was clear for me that this level is not going to hold .So I short since 1,2950 and dont think about to get out very fast.
I have a strong "gut" feeling (usually wrong) that we will see 2600 by the NY open tomorrow morning. I don't know why, I just feel like price is fighting too hard to climb and I "see" some things that make me uncomfortable about waiting for a pull back to anything higher than 2700.

Goodnight and Good Trading. See you all tomorrow.
  • #6,293
  • Feb 23, 2009 10:01pm Feb 23, 2009 10:01pm
Quoting bgin2end
I have a strong "gut" feeling (usually wrong) that we will see 2600 by the NY open tomorrow morning. I don't know why, I just feel like price is fighting too hard to climb and I "see" some things that make me uncomfortable about waiting for a pull back to anything higher than 2700.

Goodnight and Good Trading. See you all tomorrow.
PA is definitely struggling just above 1.2720 here. I am short at 1.2682 with 100 pip TSL. If I get stopped out.. oh well. I'll just see how high it goes and then put on an AH trade. Based on what the markets did today, I would say that there's more room to the downside..... unless there isn't of course.... ha, ha!

Good trading all!
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  • #6,294
  • Edited Feb 24, 2009 3:11am Feb 23, 2009 11:43pm | Edited Feb 24, 2009 3:11am
Hi

I've also been short (from 1.2845) with my TSL is +85 pips and I see potential down to around 1.2400 where there was support in Oct/Nov.

I've just added another short at 1.2720 with a 100 pip SL during the rally from 1.2662 - too soon, I suspect. How would you guys add?

The 50% fib of the fall from 1.2990 to 1.2666 is about 1.2825. Would you set an additional short there? Or is it too far from the major trendline to add?

Any comments would be great.

Cheers
Jellybean
  • #6,295
  • Feb 24, 2009 1:16am Feb 24, 2009 1:16am
Pretty rabid PA at the Frankfurt open. Let's hope for us shorties that it's just hot air!
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  • #6,296
  • Edited 4:48am Feb 24, 2009 4:15am | Edited 4:48am
this hot air is not about to take out our profits
  • #6,297
  • Feb 24, 2009 4:20am Feb 24, 2009 4:20am
I have been reading the last couple of posts and i am trying to understand where the supposed euro weakness versus dollar would come from.

To be honest it looks like the banks have every reason to gun for 1.30 and 1.34 as there should be large orders at these levels with would mean commission to the market makers.

As for the comparative weakness of euro and usd where is this information coming from? There does not appear to be any fundamental supporting this. The average wealth of a person is in property. The average european holds more property than the average US citizen. I have no quote for this but this is what i have been told. Additionally on average property values in europe are above US.

Whats more interest rate in uUS virtually nill not so in europe. Only tools left to US government are cash stimulous, which judging by bloomberg is being abused by institutions.

So basically i am trying to understand why the euro should depreciate versus dollar
  • #6,298
  • Feb 24, 2009 4:29am Feb 24, 2009 4:29am
Quoting Lythro

So basically i am trying to understand why the euro should depreciate versus dollar
My first post to this thread.

Add to that the fact that the euro is not going to be printed like the us$ will be,There are some bailout, but not like the us one.Ok, some problems in eastern countries, but europe will not be alone there, russia will also help to get some influence back.

my 2 cents opinion...
  • #6,299
  • Feb 24, 2009 4:37am Feb 24, 2009 4:37am
Watching the 1.2800 level to hold as resistance. This level could send it down again to the 2500-2550 area. I will take it short if 2800 can hold.
If 1.2800 fails 1.3000 is possible. The 2800 is a ROUND NUMBER.

I'm only allowing 2 lots for these trades now as there is too much volitility.
The Christmas time patterns are lingering on it seems.

Not trying to figure out why PRICE does what it does, but trade what I see.

Just my views & nothing more.

___________________________
  • #6,300
  • Feb 24, 2009 5:04am Feb 24, 2009 5:04am
Quoting McQueen68
got stopped out at 2945

ah then kicked in...

short 2945 w/ 100 tsl

g/l and g/t to all


out at 2762 (+183 less 100 ah= +83)

just entered another short at 2825 (50RT 2992-2662) w/ 100tsl
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