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AUD/USD

  • #1,081
  • Feb 8, 2009 10:34pm Feb 8, 2009 10:34pm
Quoting Subdude
What do you use to gauge the volume at any particular level?
Subdude,

With spot forex, most little guys like us have to rely on tick volume as a gauge.
Having watched the price action first-hand on Friday, just about everyhing north of the 67 handle
was done on extremely low volume, and it was a Friday afterall - who else was left ?

Anyway, to confirm what I'm seeing I also look at the nearby futures where actual contract volume is available.

Here are a couple screenies:
Attached Image(s) (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: oz.PNG Size: 28 KB
Click to Enlarge Name: oz_march.PNG Size: 35 KB
  • #1,082
  • Feb 9, 2009 12:47am Feb 9, 2009 12:47am
Quoting toshi
Welcome to Forex Factory !!!
(Noticed you're 1st time to post)

Got a bit a mileage out of that move, but as far as the next few days,
as I said before, just looked like OZ was due for a bit of a reprive and we got it.

The resistance above 68 (vs. USD) is considerable, so a pull back should be a few hours away.
Maybe today, maybe tomorrow, but I don't fight trends, so I'm waiting.

With a big outside bullish bar on the weekly, no doubt bids will begin to form
between 65 to 66. Lots of volume traded at those levels so return to test won't...

Thanks toshi. I have been reading threads in this great forum for months now. Just registered in order to participate in discussions..
  • #1,083
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:36pm Feb 11, 2009 6:36pm
Wow, just look at these numbers - aussie is doomed now, for sure!
  • #1,084
  • Feb 11, 2009 6:59pm Feb 11, 2009 6:59pm
Quoting NuckingFuts
Come on 0.50!!!!
Hmmmmm. I may get my $0.50 again

Looks like we're in a bear flag on the daily/weekly charts.
Attached Image
  • #1,085
  • Feb 11, 2009 8:04pm Feb 11, 2009 8:04pm
I am liking it long atm.
  • #1,086
  • Feb 11, 2009 8:22pm Feb 11, 2009 8:22pm
Quoting TIckerShuffl
I am liking it long atm.
Long for now (very tentatively, though I actually went short w/ avg of 0.6585), but I'd be surprised if it broke 0.6670 before London open. After that, it's all downhill.
  • #1,087
  • Feb 12, 2009 3:09pm Feb 12, 2009 3:09pm
I am only taking very short trades (30 pips or so) in this ranging market.
The stronger resistance seems to be on the short side, although the long term trend is obviously short.
A 20 SMA is the only indicator I use atm, and it's more of a guide than a rule.

As I'm only doing small trades, I see a short to around the 6420 range with half my normal exposure.
Attached Image (click to enlarge)
Click to Enlarge Name: aud usd ranging.JPG Size: 171 KB
  • #1,088
  • Feb 12, 2009 5:15pm Feb 12, 2009 5:15pm
Quoting Marrethiel
I am only taking very short trades (30 pips or so) in this ranging market.
The stronger resistance seems to be on the short side, although the long term trend is obviously short.
A 20 SMA is the only indicator I use atm, and it's more of a guide than a rule.

As I'm only doing small trades, I see a short to around the 6420 range with half my normal exposure.
Nice chart. I think short entries in the 0.6600-0.6620 range should be relatively safe to ride on through the rest of the week.
  • #1,089
  • Feb 12, 2009 8:02pm Feb 12, 2009 8:02pm
Hey Guyz , bad news for aussie longs :
"Australia’s Senate rejected a A$42 billion ($28 billion) stimulus package aimed to ensure the economy avoids its first recession in 18 years. The government failed to win support for its plans in the upper house of parliament, where it needed seven opposition or minor party votes to ensure passage. In a bid to win support, the government reduced one-off grants to income earners and diverted money toward projects proposed by the Australian Greens party. “This is the only country that has considered an economic stimulus and had it defeated,” Superannuation Minister Nick Sherry told the Senate today. “Further uncertainty and further delays -- things will get worse.”

Bloomberg.
Have a Nice week end guyz , for me still short from 7200 , booked some profits on the way down at 6350 , now I may reconsider adding more shorts at 6600 range.
  • #1,090
  • Feb 18, 2009 3:33am Feb 18, 2009 3:33am
Maybe it is worse that it looks. I am just thinking that the USD is not going to weaken so the AUD is heading for below 60 any one think any different.
  • #1,091
  • Feb 19, 2009 10:41pm Feb 19, 2009 10:41pm
I have to agree with you there. On the NZD/USD charts, there may also be a break below .5000. This may help AUD fall.

Quoting 95ford
Maybe it is worse that it looks. I am just thinking that the USD is not going to weaken so the AUD is heading for below 60 any one think any different.
"Don't work for your money, but let money work for you."
  • #1,092
  • Feb 20, 2009 12:56am Feb 20, 2009 12:56am
Actually the Fundamentals point to a bullish path. See news article below.

The technicals point to a bearish....

-------- FWD ----------------------

RBA"s Stevens Comments Viewed As Upbeat Sydney, February 20: RBA Governor Stevens is appearing before Parliament and has given a relatively upbeat appraisal of Australian economic prospects and its ability to weather the global economic crisis. Unlike the gloomy assessments coming from the likes of the Fed, ECB, BOJ and BOE, the RBA sees the major Australian banks in a strong position, a pick up is some sectors of the property market and no reason for the current downturn in the Australian economy to be a deep one.
The reason for the optimism is due to the large amount of fiscal stimulus provided by the government combined with aggressive monetary easing and signs that China"s economy might be turning for the better.
Traders feel that the comments from the RBA Governor are AUD-supportive, as they suggest that the Australian economy will be one of the first to recover from the crisis and that monetary policy easing going forward will not be as aggressive as the markets were pricing in just a short time
  • #1,093
  • Feb 23, 2009 3:25pm Feb 23, 2009 3:25pm
Quoting hantousha
Actually the Fundamentals point to a bullish path. See news article below.

The technicals point to a bearish....
Yeah, I am technical guy and I am short at 0.6430
looking forward to reach the 0.6333 level
エンジョイライフ！
  • #1,094
  • Feb 23, 2009 3:28pm Feb 23, 2009 3:28pm
I'm still long. Dollar is doomed. Fed will have to print money to buy it's own treasuries to fund to the stimulus. Furthermore, what country would want to buy dollars that they know eventually will suffer from inflationary pressures and debased currency? The reason stocks are tanking, no one wants US based assets anymore.
  • #1,095
  • Feb 23, 2009 3:54pm Feb 23, 2009 3:54pm
Everything is possible, markets are bitching around for now.
エンジョイライフ！
  • #1,096
  • Feb 23, 2009 11:24pm Feb 23, 2009 11:24pm
CLose long .6483

locked profit...been too long and seem like trading opps more potential. Dollar may have some more strength before fall...

Gonna sleep like a baby tonight

(this should guarantee a HUGE RALLY over night)
  • #1,097
  • Feb 24, 2009 5:53am Feb 24, 2009 5:53am
Comments from Senior Members are important. It is good to hear from you and to close your position gives me an indication I have been waiting for to go short at 0.6512. I intend to put my stop at 0.6600. Take profit at .6450
Lets see how I go on my third trade?

Sleep well and thank you.
  • #1,098
  • Feb 24, 2009 7:40am Feb 24, 2009 7:40am
Well...I am long again at .6434...small position. The Moving averages on the houly seem to be unifying on a support. Daily is mystery whether is will break down or up. I have to go with my plan, and so i will piece in longs down to .6350 if necc.

Don't consider me senior...just another shmo..
  • #1,099
  • Feb 26, 2009 3:55am Feb 26, 2009 3:55am
aususd still in the 0,64 - 0,65 trading range with potential extensions to 0,639 and 0,655

will likely to remain in range with potential for an upside move still favourite due to a possible bounce in equities in the coming sessions
  • #1,100
  • Feb 26, 2009 2:40pm Feb 26, 2009 2:40pm
Quoting fammira
aususd still in the 0,64 - 0,65 trading range with potential extensions to 0,639 and 0,655

will likely to remain in range with potential for an upside move still favourite due to a possible bounce in equities in the coming sessions
Have a look at this pair on a monthly chart... still looks like it's in full bear mode.
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