Extracted Thread (per thread starter's request)

Looking for & got my 30P on 5 full & then watch it go to 100 & 30 P just because I didn't take the time to set a Trailer.

Absolutely Tounge in Cheek. {in other words; I'm joking.}

Pisses me off I only made $1,500.00 before the Market is actually considered Open.
Why? It could have been substantially more.

Conclusion:
Wake up you friggin idiot. you just took $1,500.00 bucks out of the Market & You think you have reason to complain???
SLAP!!!

Sorry sir. How do I get back In?

You Wait!!! Until it says so...

Well ... compliments..
the name of this thread is already very well.. and full of charm ...
I hope that something important is born.

OK .. I want give my first contribution on the EURUSD and talking to start a debate about it.
In attachment you will see a daily chart that I take as a reference for my operation.
We have seen how the market has once again responded in area and 1.25xx

and as said Doblece we have seen a violent wave 3.

I have the impression that this week will be difficult to trade.
We opened the week taking a bullish channel and this is a good sign for longs.
Anyway doing a little analysis on the charts, and although at the time of this writing we are at 1.29 xx area, I believe that a good entry points are between 1.2793 and 1.2742.

Internet still down but will get fixed tomorrow. "They" say.

Looks like everyone is having fun with out me.

Maybe that's why they ARE having fun. Seriously, I appreciate the warm fuzzies and elegant expressions of support. And Bemac, that was perfect. Seems Benedictions have gone out of style lately, but that should hold the wall nicely...

I have a couple posts I'm working on explaining the way I trade pivots and am hopefully will be able to get them up soon. At this rate, I'll be trading and FF'ing from the Internet Bakery. Ohhhh... what I am willing to endure...

On a serious note... something I've been looking at and following for months now is apparently coming to pass... the eastern European bank weakness and related financial stress is taking a further toll on the western European banks, and adding yet another straw onto the back of the dromedary.

The failure of the Latvian government following that of Iceland ((and with somewhat the same pattern; the fall of govenment following social unrest following economic impact...)) leads to the inevitable question of "Who's next?".

Austria seems to be on the hotseat as a likely contender... If that line of dominoes ever starts falling, I'm not sure there is any way to arrest the process. One of the questions I ponder almost daily is what would the speed of that fall be... and of course the impact on currencies.

Enough with the Gloomy thoughts... hope to be back up and get current sometime tomorrow. Careful trades all.

Well shiver me timbers if the Kilted Knight hasnt just joined me at sea....

An interesting post with many comments that are very much in line with my own thoughts. Every big swing trade off the longer TF charts starts with a move off the 1 min chart / 5 min chart - just look at Friday, the 14:20 GMT low was just 8 pips under the low at the Frankfurt Open. 8 mins later on the 1 min chart at 14:29 there was a higher low and a beautiful long entry at ~1.2565 with a 15 pip stop. That trade is now up > 400 pips and on a more recent entry I've just taken some off at 1.2990 and will buy again on an pull back - a fibo over todays rally will help here.

Again, I agree about small accounts needing to start with small TFs and micro trades. Watching the action on a 1 min or 5 min chart allows plenty of practice in making Live Trades and learning about placing stops, limits etc. IMO this is far better that spending months on demo which can emcourge bad habits as its not REAL money. Even 1 cent / pip makes a HUGE difference!

Time to pirate some more pips.....I've also been long cable, now flat and waiting for The Brits and LO....

LOL AK - you've joined with with us illegals http://www.forexfactory.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

I wonder if Ms Trichet has read your post - he up early and speaking in 10 mins at 03:10 EST - 8:10 GMT. I'll be interested to hear what he has to say.....

I'm not sure that any of the EUR's movements have to do with the Eurozone or any of it's issues. A lot of people just fled to quality during the recession, and have converted a lot of their holdings into dollars. That means money market funds are full, waiting for a recovery. Less dollars in supply, dollar shows strength.

When the market rebounds people will convert their safe havens back into stocks, that'll flood the market with a lot of dollars... and the euro, by comparison, will go up. Even if the eurozone is trash and we see some nation failures, I don't think it'll matter. I think this trade is not about the euro, it's about the dollar...

But yea, right now the EURUSD is certainly looking bullish. Slowing bear momentum, rising support, the breaking flag, a double bottom w/ MACD divergence, people looking to reposition into equities, pick your poison... almost all signs point to up.

And for good reason too, the source of strength for the dollar was the massive hedge fund redemptions. The big money has already moved, there's not a lot left to strengthen the dollar. The only exception to that would be a failure in the bond market or another massive run against stocks to send even more people into cash.

Edit: Weekly EURUSD chart. Notice the pinbar double bottom w/ fading momentum at the weekly 365 SMA (white MA).

The only thing better than the EU thread this morning is the Cherry Cheese Danish at the internet bakery... I'm stuck here while the service techs dig something up and pad the bill while fixing my internet. ((Not sure if it's my imagination or not, but it looks like a couple of the old biddies across the way are givin me the lecherous eyeball.... ))

Chart is a 6m showing the PA thru the night with respect to the various Pivots, (aqua lines are my QP's, Grey line is 21sma.). As I was offline nearly all weekend, and had to poach a signal last evening after the open, I had to trade a little differently with order sizes and extended SL's. Freaked me out, let me tell ya...

I placed a sell limit at 2950 that's still doing nicely with 70% scaled off a bit ago at 2720 and 30% left to retrace to a generous trailing stop or continue on, whichever.

Looking at the session PA so far, the rise above R1 last night surprised me some, but the hard turn at the 2988 QP High was right on... a thing of beauty actually. I'm not able to get to all my charts the way I'd like on a laptop screen, but it looks like that was during the FO/LO session and that explains some of it I guess.

With that said in hindsight, I guess I'm actually a little surprised price didn't try to take out the stops that had to be just above that major 30xx level. It very likely would have gotten me if it had, but that's trading.... sometimes you nail it and sometimes it nails you...

When I get home ((to fixed internet)), I'll be perusing the charts and trying to get a handle on what to expect the next couple days. One thing for sure anyway, this "away thing" is not my comfort zone for trading at this stage for me anyway, and I have tremendous respect for you guys that can "set it and leave it" and do well.

Perhaps there is a clue for me in there somewhere...

I'll close with my 1 hr chart that I created last Friday but with update Pivots... We've peeked both above and below the Fork, we're currently blocked at the 2720 Psych/ 2726QP level and I'll be looking to see if the DP at 2757ish holds the upside pressure on the inevitable bounce off current Support...

Might as well go out a limb here.... my bias and "wishlist" price Target is the red arrow on the chart to S1. IF the DP holds,... otherwise, this will be invalidated for now. Might see it later, but I wouldn't trade it if the DP breaks northward... and the alternative trade would then be an obvious no brainer off the Lower Fork line...

Careful trades all, I'm likely out for the day until things get fixed...

ADD: Note the convergence of Upper BB and 21sma at the the DP... I like it. Price has since managed 2769 for a few minutes but retraced... so if that was a failed retest of the DP, then I'm a litle more hopeful for the contination move down thru the lower fork.

Well, you've got your own thread! I applaud your knowledge and your initiative. Thanks a bunch AK4X. I have learned a lot from you over the past year, along with many of the other guys you've invited to post on this thread. I look forward to contributing real soon. I've got about a year of trading under my belt, and no money left, so I should have plenty of time to analyze what the hell went wrong and help some newbie not commit the same mistakes I did.

Seriously, I also look forward to continuing to growing my ability to where I can analyze multiple timeframes and make more accurate predictive decisions.

Best to all on this thread, and again, thanks to my Inuit Buddy.

After managing a daily low to 2660ish but not quite to my target at 2630, we've got late asia managing a retrace to the the levels below... a nice convergence zone a'rd 2740ish.
I have a 50% fib ((2752)) of the move from last weeks low on Wed at 2512 to last nights High at 2990 at 2752.

Also have price bumping into the 1hr 21sma and the QP for the M2/DP zone at 2741... this should be fun, with 1hr to the Frankie Open. Ascending red line is the lower tine of the pitchfork on previous chart posted this morning.

A break of the 2750 could get us back to the lower fork and the DP up a'rd 2790/2800ish maybe at the early Fo/Lo session ((Plan B)). Failure here ((Plan A)) could see continuation lower, minus any frankie headfakes. I'm anticipating failure a'rd that Aqua line (2740/50ish) at best or a bounce from the lower fork/Daily Pivot (2790/2800) at worst. 2780 is also the 2h 21sma, so another nice convergence zone a'rd 20 pips wide.

Letting my short run and staying out while my internet is STILL sketchy... very frustrating. Actually "Worst" would be a stronger reversal move hitting my trailer, but i won't worry over that, since Worst is still +120 pips...

I'll try again from the bakery sometime in the morning. G'nite and careful trades all.

Beware the beast of Caerbannog!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XcxKIJTb3Hg

I promised to write something but to be honest, I have no idea how to start so I'll talk this and that.

My background is on tech side, I have had some quite high positions and founded a couple of companies.

I have had a long lasting interest with both trading and all kinds of obscure machine learning techniques like genetic algos, neural networks and other even more obscure methods that I don't talk here - I even created couple of own programming languages for GA and ran them for months [real time] on all of s&p 500 data I found to find interesting results. Sounds clever, right? Well it actually lead nowhere in actual trading results [computer learning methods are excellent in curve fitting though]

I think I have programmed and tested easily over 200 trading algos and even more indicators with all kinds of methods and to put complex things short, it looks like what really works in long term are simple methods [quantative vs qualitive - I'm all for quantative in trading]. Things like long term range breakouts, trendlines and such. Interestingly I have never found any trend filter that would make your results better if you add it to any method. Also on my testing I have never had any real success in testing any mechanical method under daily bars. [I know there are methods that work on shorter term data like stat arb but I haven't tried stat arb or found any reliable short term method]. This doesn't mean that they don't work on shorter term data but I would always look other timeframes and stuff like news to complement trading on shorter tf.

Also my testing has shown that EURUSD is by far the best pair to trade with technical analysis. I personally think it all goes back to volume and economy sizes. Big ships turn slower and small waves don't affect them that much. In other words changes in euro will affect chf but changes in chf don't affect euro that easily also if US economy will turn to bad, it doesn't turn back that fast [trends are strong].

Some methods that I use are so simple that it sounds unbelievable that they work [some other that I use are not so obvious but are still simple]. Below are couple of entries that I use [sometimes discretionary based on news, sometimes not] - usually combined with trendlines.
- Basic 20/2 bb breakout
- Basic 20 day donchian breakout

I also read a lot of fundie data and news but I mostly use it to identify possibility of big future events that I still always confirm with technicals. At the moment I'm still waiting for treasury bubble bursting, it might never happen but it might and the results will be huge. I'm also looking for US state data, something is really wrong if two states cannot pay their tax returns. Then there is bank situation.. Also the coming oil shock will have a major impact on all economies that are dependant on oil. Oil price will shoot through the roof during the next 10 years [this one is too simple - oil will end and consumption just grows all the time].

I also use "pa" but mostly to read the market, for example "pin bar" is so widely known that it will affect the market. Inside bars are other. I NEVER use these without confirmation from other methods because I simply haven't found them reliable by long term testing. H&S, flags, double tops/bottoms etc work too but partly for different reason [stops]. I trade these based on their location. If a h&s happens at extreme point, it's usually quite effective.

Not probably very exciting but these methods really work longer term

Looks like Plan B it was, with price getting about 20 pips more strength along the way than I would have liked had I been up to watch it. However, the Turn a'rd the xx20 Psych line which converged with the 62% level of the swing Hi/Lo Fib from last Friday's Low and this weeks current High ((values on chart)) and especially the lower tine of the Pitchfork was spot on.

I'll be re-evaluating/updating the 1hr chart later today.

The Bold Red TL in this chart is a longer term line that failed on the Friday Bull Run but held on this Retrace and produced a nice Bounce. Congrats to those in that trade... and to those who shorted the top of it.

The 38% fib/21sma seem to be holding as support atm and I am off for awhile here.

My short from 2950 still in play.

Sheesh mikkom, that left me howling on the floor. I haven't really thought of that movie in many years. Took me back to another age in several ways... Too true tho, how we don't listen to Those That Know and get into a Mess as a result... That should be Mandatory Watching for all traders...

"You silly Sod!! You got us all worked up!!" What a great line...

Now I have to go rent it. I know I won't be Allowed to watch it in the house, so will probably have to plug the laptop into the inverter and watch it in the truck out in the driveway.

Long at the weekly pivot @ 1.2730. Estimated hold time is 3 months. Stop loss nearby just-in-case. Let's see how she does.

Hey Rabid, can you elaborate any on why a "time frame" target instead of price? Curious what you're thinking of or looking at for criteria on this trade...

One of the things I'm personally weak on is genuine long term trades ((except in a mega trend when they can be no brainers)). But I'm at a loss as to how you manage one in this market.... and I'm hoping some of you Long Termers will help build a Knowledge Base here as to what components go into entering/exiting and managing them successfully.

AK, thank you for starting this thread. I hope it will yield the cup we seek. At least to hold some wine if not anything else.

I will be brief. My experience is not long but a few things stand out for me:

- Learning and understanding the basics of trading was not all that difficult.

- Learning how to master my emotions is very difficult. I feel like I have made progress but only one little bite out of the entire pizza. It feels like it will take a lifetime to get to maybe 50% of that pizza.

- A larger account is much better, once you are up and running, making consistent pips. The only way to make a living at this is to have an account where you can comfortably make the pips you need with little pressure. The larger your base account, the less the pressure. You do not want to have stress lurking in the background while you are trading. I am glad for experience purposes that I started with a small account, but now it will be several months, with no withdraws, until I have amassed a truly sustainable account.

Most of you here probably know all this. I am posting it anticipating it will help someone, new or not.

Looking forward to the grand conversation.

It's a rough estimate based on the size of the pattern. It could be way off, but I find that if I don't set something I'm tempted to pull out too early. After a month, if I'm not stopped out, I'll move my SL to breakeven. For the few weekly trades I take I use a 9/21 EMA crossover as an exit signal and trail a catastrophic SL at the 50% retrace.

As for the entry, I'm taking it a bit early, but I'm willing to risk it because of the potential ROI. I'm trading off an expected pinbar setup at the double bottom. I've found these double top/bottoms that tail off (scroll back thru the EURUSD, the weekly is rife w/ them) to provide a relatively decent edge. That, as opposed to a tail bar on the 21 MA... which seems to signal an end to the trend.

So no real magic secret. I could get stopped out tomorrow as far as I know, but the potential upside is huge so it's worth the risk. We're likely to return to 1.4740, perhaps even 1.57 when the market recovers.

I don't usually trade on the big TFs, but good setups are just worth taking regardless.

I thought about Posting Trades {or upcoming Trades} but thought again.

If you Follow MY Trades & I'm Correct, I'm a Hero. Wrong & you stop listening.

How much have you learned from Following? I'm willing to bet that all you learned is How to Follow.
Is that Really what you want from this Forex? I don't think so.

So I thought that I would post something off the line.

A Fictitional Interview hosted by AK {totally fictional charater}& Responses by BMc. (that would be Me)
{AK is Fictional and bears no resemblence to any Member you think you know.
Unless he Likes it...}

AK: Hi Bemac & thank you for joining us this evening.
BMc: No: thank you for the invitiation & giving me this opportunity. I think this concept will save some sorrow for some.

AK) Bemac, what causes you to Alter your position?
BMc) Numerous events cause me to Re-Think My Position.

AK) OK... What causes you to Enter a Position?
BMc) The belief that there is a definate advantage whether it be for the Bulls or the Bears.

AK) Would you care to define the criteria that influence 'Your Beliefs'?
BMc) Not a problem but you should understand that I do not intend to use terminology that accomodates those that have not yet been deeply involved in this Market;

AK) That's fair, for the moment. What does it take for a Vehicle to catch your attention?
BMc) Radical moves.
AK) Why?
BMc) They will continue OR Not. I then have an Opportunity to Play.

AK) My Readers need a little more than what we have so far. Can we get real?
BMc) Sure we can AK but I think your Readers may be dissapointed.
You see, I don't use Voodoo or FA or any sort of ibs TA.. I just look at the chart of any particular pair Satrting with Monthly All the way down to 5min & if Those Charts {mostly} All Agree on direction;

I'm In.

Please: Do Not Follow Me: If you do; Where would this method be when I leave?

That's a very good point. But at the same time, I've come to think that the only way a person can learn is to make mistakes... so trying to shield people from them might not do any good. Still, maybe focusing on methods or an overview instead might be better than individual trade positions.

Hard to know. A trade either works or it doesn't.

Many thanks to Ak4x for inviting me to participate in this new thread, which I anticipate will become a center for sharing and learning. Already the characteristics of participants' strategies, templates, and temperments is staggeringly varied.....from understated simplicity to the complex....and with trading timeframes from the short to those so long I wonder if I would live long enough to see them through!

Yes indeed, this is going to be fun!

That would be my first choice here as I know some folks will be able to pick things up long after the trade itself is in the books... As i said in the intro tho, if dissecting a trade after the fact is helpful in some way, then I leave that to the trader to decide...

That's one of things I've really enjoyed the last few weeks is going thru old threads and finding dust covered nuggets. Some Priceless stuff buried here at the Factory....

"A trade either works or it doesn't"... It don't get any simpler than that.