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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #2,121
  • Mar 27, 2007 11:20am Mar 27, 2007 11:20am
Quoting Nacho_1975
look at the Monthly chart and you will findout, what I am thinking
My monthly chart does not go back to 1998.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,122
  • Mar 27, 2007 2:23pm Mar 27, 2007 2:23pm
Well that was certainly a bumpy ride down from yesterday.

All indicators are back to a long again. Not sure how long it will ride but it is across the 30 to 4H charts so could be a good Fab retracement in the works.
Daily is still in the down mode so take some caution when going long these next few days.

If you can get in under 231.50 Long, that's my entry. Aiming for 50 pips for now.
  • #2,123
  • Edited 3:00pm Mar 27, 2007 2:46pm | Edited 3:00pm
Take a look at the 30M, we have a nice PIN forming in the candles...see if it holds up for 15 more minutes.

Update: The PIN held together, that supports the long
  • #2,124
  • Mar 27, 2007 2:57pm Mar 27, 2007 2:57pm
hey spudfyre, what are you looking at to go long? i dont get any long signals. what kind of timeframe are u trading? is ur TP 50 pips? im looking for a short under 229.80.

oops, just got my question answered. 30 min timeframe out of market hours seems a little unreliable to me. what else do u look at ?
  • #2,125
  • Mar 27, 2007 3:10pm Mar 27, 2007 3:10pm
Quoting NasdaqNinja
hey spudfyre, what are you looking at to go long? i dont get any long signals. what kind of timeframe are u trading? is ur TP 50 pips? im looking for a short under 229.80.

oops, just got my question answered. 30 min timeframe out of market hours seems a little unreliable to me. what else do u look at ?
Looking at Stochs at the moment on mutli-time frames.
Daily MA50 has a little long break through going on to counter it's down trend Stoch. Small whipsaw here I think.
4H RSI is looking to bounce off 50.

Only contradiction is on 1H.



Looking at this long to be more a burp for some easy pips. It is quite possible this burp may amount to nothing but a few pips.

I agree, over the longer term short is where to be.
  • #2,126
  • Mar 27, 2007 3:39pm Mar 27, 2007 3:39pm
I am finding a daily support which should be moderately strong around 231.24, and I would think that if it is going to bounce it would do it from there. Considering the tentative way in which it is making its way down, and the fact that it has already bounced off 231.24 once today, it would not surprise me if it did it again before making its way down.
  • #2,127
  • Mar 27, 2007 3:51pm Mar 27, 2007 3:51pm
moonchild, i see that too, both on the 30 min and 1 hr charts i get a short term bullish read, could be good for a few pips. im still waiting for a good short entry. we ll see what happens at the asian open. on a side note, nzd/usd looks particularly bearish today on a day charts, closing a pin, and at a hard resistance point. any thoughts?

NasdaqNinja
  • #2,128
  • Mar 27, 2007 4:20pm Mar 27, 2007 4:20pm
Quoting NasdaqNinja
moonchild, i see that too, both on the 30 min and 1 hr charts i get a short term bullish read, could be good for a few pips. im still waiting for a good short entry. we ll see what happens at the asian open. on a side note, nzd/usd looks particularly bearish today on a day charts, closing a pin, and at a hard resistance point. any thoughts?

NasdaqNinja
I just looked at the kiwi daily chart. .7200 has been a strong resistance and it looks as though it may be forming a pin bar, and we are today forming the 3rd bar of the set. I would enter a short below 7150. A good fundamental reason is also because this pair really should never have gotten as high as it is because of the weakness of the NZ economy, thus the pair is extremely overvalued. Since last summer it has risen from almost .5900 to .7200, which is a huge percentage increase which can only be explained by the carry trade since it makes no sense in any standard economic sense.
  • #2,129
  • Mar 27, 2007 5:30pm Mar 27, 2007 5:30pm
Any Comments?


Quoting Sami7
My monthly chart does not go back to 1998.
  • #2,130
  • Mar 27, 2007 5:44pm Mar 27, 2007 5:44pm
Quoting Sami7
My monthly chart does not go back to 1998.
Whose charts do you use? I use the charts from FXDD and the monthlys go back to 1978.

In 1998, the pair hit just about exactly where we just did for a high then slid down to 193.28 in the space of one month. It could happen again, but then it again it might not.
  • #2,131
  • Mar 27, 2007 6:15pm Mar 27, 2007 6:15pm
Dip buying GJ every 50 pips since 232.50. Buiding inventory looking for carries redemption when Yen repatriation is done.

Thoughts?
  • #2,132
  • Mar 27, 2007 6:28pm Mar 27, 2007 6:28pm
this thing is moving tonight for sure.
  • #2,133
  • Mar 27, 2007 6:42pm Mar 27, 2007 6:42pm
Quoting cesarnc
Dip buying GJ every 50 pips since 232.50. Buiding inventory looking for carries redemption when Yen repatriation is done.

Thoughts?
I hope that you have a huge stop loss and lots of margin to play with. But remember in 1998 when it dropped from this area it never looked back. Youa re braver than I am.
  • #2,134
  • Mar 27, 2007 6:45pm Mar 27, 2007 6:45pm
Just got home and up +83 pips on my long term short. As far as charts - was using Trading Post Charts, and not renewed them, currently. Looking for better charts while using my stock Accucharts. Any suggestions?
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,135
  • Mar 27, 2007 6:48pm Mar 27, 2007 6:48pm
Quoting Sami7
Just got home and up +83 pips on my long term short. As far as charts - was using Trading Post Charts, and not renewed them, currently. Looking for better charts while using my stock Accucharts. Any suggestions?
The cheapest way is to use MT4 demo charts.
  • #2,136
  • Mar 27, 2007 6:52pm Mar 27, 2007 6:52pm
Quoting moonchild
Whose charts do you use? I use the charts from FXDD and the monthlys go back to 1978.

In 1998, the pair hit just about exactly where we just did for a high then slid down to 193.28 in the space of one month. It could happen again, but then it again it might not.
Very interesting. I'm not sure we will see that. According to DRT we may be heading to 229.05 (last estimate) which I think is entirely possible given the strength of the down movement we are seeing currently.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,137
  • Mar 27, 2007 7:00pm Mar 27, 2007 7:00pm
Darn, I set a limit of 231.11 on my existing short position making +57 pip movement. Had I suspected it would have carried straight past my prediction I would not have set a limit on it.. I have now set a limit SELL order to get back in at 231.119 and it doesn't look like it will bounce back. This is such a big drop..

Fundamental reason for such a sharp drop..

Quote
March 28 (Bloomberg) -- The yen strengthened on speculation Japanese investors are bringing funds back before the financial year ends on March 30.
Japan's yen climbed against the world's 16 most-actively traded currencies on prospects Japanese companies are returning overseas earnings on the last trading day for settlement this fiscal year.
_______________ Say Good-bye to Buy-and-Hold
  • #2,138
  • Mar 27, 2007 7:04pm Mar 27, 2007 7:04pm
Quoting deltaworld

Is there a fundamental reason for such a sharp drop..
Looks like Yen repatriation, despite the Iran rumors earlier. I would guess that since USD and CHF are not moving.

Russians in the bandwagon? Maybe.
  • #2,139
  • Mar 27, 2007 7:19pm Mar 27, 2007 7:19pm
Retracement off of the down move in progress.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,140
  • Mar 27, 2007 7:20pm Mar 27, 2007 7:20pm
[quote=deltaworld;255647]Darn, I set a limit of 231.11 on my existing short position making +57 pip movement. Had I suspected it would have carried straight past my prediction I would not have set a limit on it.. I have now set a limit SELL order to get back in at 231.119 and it doesn't look like it will bounce back. This is such a big drop..

It may just go there.....
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
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