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Daily GBP/JPY analysis

  • #2,101
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:36pm Mar 26, 2007 7:36pm
im long at 232.67 t/p 233.25 not my normal take profit of 150+ pips but a down trend can happen any time.
If I Go Broke Trying Then I Will die happy.
  • #2,102
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:37pm Mar 26, 2007 7:37pm
Slow Stochastic was at 100% overbought and RSI turned down on 4 hr. Also a couple other indicators seeming to say short.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,103
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:40pm Mar 26, 2007 7:40pm
Quoting Sami7
Slow Stochastic was at 100% overbought and RSI turned down on 4 hr. Also a couple other indicators seeming to say short.
RSI on 4 hr is at 75 which is overbrought but it still has steam to go up. I have noticed 75 in GJ is not as overbrought as it is in other pairs. Also i see MACD cross occuring on 4 hour which can be a threat to short side...

Really would like to know others opinions about this
  • #2,104
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:43pm Mar 26, 2007 7:43pm
Quoting jaree
Exactly! I would like to know why and where do you guys see sell indication other then RSI which still has some potential to ride a bit long before coming down again... Am i missing something here
Well let's start with the daily...it's been on the down trend since Jan 24th. Look at the high on Feb 23rd and the high today...see a trend?
I'm not anticipating we'll go much over 233 as the daily Stoch is way overbought and pointed down....it's been rounding the top for a few days.

You've got divergence on the 1H RVI and 30M RSI...which means the push up looks to be struggling and may just collapse.

The shorter time frames are what keeps bouncing the price up...which isn't a good sign for sustaining the long.

Look at the 4H time frame and you will notice the downs are steep and the ups are long and gentle...another sign that the ups are clawing their way up the the downs are looking for an excuse to pop the bubble.

As I type this the 30 and 15 min time frames are starting to weaken their up climb and about to head down again. The RSI on both is weakening and both are likely to cross zero tonight on the way down.

Through the next few hours any up movement there is you can watch for it being weaker and weaker to give you an idea that things are not looking favourable for a continued up trend.

The question is how far down will it go?
  • #2,105
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:48pm Mar 26, 2007 7:48pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Well let's start with the daily...it's been on the down trend since Jan 24th. Look at the high on Feb 23rd and the high today...see a trend?
I'm not anticipating we'll go much over 233 as the daily Stoch is way overbought and pointed down....it's been rounding the top for a few days.

You've got divergence on the 1H RVI and 30M RSI...which means the push up looks to be struggling and may just collapse.

The shorter time frames are what keeps bouncing the price up...which isn't a good sign for sustaining the long.

Look at the 4H time frame and you will notice the downs are steep and the ups are long and gentle...another sign that the ups are clawing their way up the the downs are looking for an excuse to pop the bubble.

As I type this the 30 and 15 min time frames are starting to weaken their up climb and about to head down again. The RSI on both is weakening and both are likely to cross zero tonight on the way down.

Through the next few hours any up movement there is you can watch for it being weaker and weaker to give you an idea that things are not looking favourable for a continued up trend.

The question is how far down will it go?
Thank you very much Well i really hope it does go down as i am stuck with a short from 231.90 now at -90 and i cannot afford to lose that much but i am afraid that my emotions have started to kick in now and i might make some wrong decision. I will keep an eye on this thread for help. Lets see...
  • #2,106
  • Edited Mar 27, 2007 12:34am Mar 26, 2007 7:54pm | Edited Mar 27, 2007 12:34am
The daily price is below the Kumo which is bearish, the leading kumo is bearish and the closing price of yesterdays daily is below the closing price at the Chinkou span which is also bearish. I'm short 232.71 and will add more at 233.10 with a stop at 233.30.

Guess I will find out tomorrow if I'm right.

Edit - closed at 232.20. Am now long at 232.30.
  • #2,107
  • Mar 26, 2007 7:57pm Mar 26, 2007 7:57pm
Quoting jaree
Thank you very much Well i really hope it does go down as i am stuck with a short from 231.90 now at -90 and i cannot afford to lose that much but i am afraid that my emotions have started to kick in now and i might make some wrong decision. I will keep an eye on this thread for help. Lets see...
Watch the RSI's on the 15, 30,1H and 4H...they should fall down like dominoes. 15 is almost at zero. If the 1H doesn't fall after the 30..."Houston we have a problem". (Should mention when I say RSI at 0 Imean 50...I reconfiged my RSI to have the 50 line be zero so that it conforms with other indicators....sorry if I confuse you).
  • #2,108
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:00pm Mar 26, 2007 8:00pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Watch the RSI's on the 15, 30,1H and 4H...they should fall down like dominoes. 15 is almost at zero. If the 1H doesn't fall after the 30..."Houston we have a problem".
Sorry but my RSI does not match with yours... I use period 5 and 20 are you using something lower then 5 and what do you mean by a problem... Is it going to be a problem for downward move? Sorry to bother you but i am confused at the moment and emotional too looking at my cash getting burned
  • #2,109
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:03pm Mar 26, 2007 8:03pm
Quoting Spudfyre
Watch the RSI's on the 15, 30,1H and 4H...they should fall down like dominoes. 15 is almost at zero. If the 1H doesn't fall after the 30..."Houston we have a problem". (Should mention when I say RSI at 0 Imean 50...I reconfiged my RSI to have the 50 line be zero so that it conforms with other indicators....sorry if I confuse you).
Spudfyre - your thinking this will be a substained movement down, correct? Your previous post seemed to think it might be bumpy....
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,110
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:12pm Mar 26, 2007 8:12pm
Quoting Sami7
Spudfyre - your thinking this will be a substained movement down, correct? Your previous post seemed to think it might be bumpy....
I think you might see a few ups along the way down...sooner than later. The short time frames aren't quite in sync for a smooth ride down. However you should see a general move of the 1H, 4H and daily RSI head down after the 30 crosses the 50 line if our down trend is going to be a sustained one.

There is a lot of pressure on the technical side for this just to fall, especially in the longer time frames. Once (if) the shorter time frames sync with the higher time frames it will be interesting.
  • #2,111
  • Mar 26, 2007 8:42pm Mar 26, 2007 8:42pm
It is very early in the "day" still and it will not be possible to be sure for quite a while, but the current bar may turn out to be a small pin bar. Anyway if that does occur it would fit in well with what the stochastics are indicating.
  • #2,112
  • Mar 26, 2007 9:35pm Mar 26, 2007 9:35pm
Now this prelondon is going to jump in... Can any expert on this pair here update me on how the things look like and how a prelondon effect GJ.
  • #2,113
  • Edited 10:37pm Mar 26, 2007 9:57pm | Edited 10:37pm
I currently have a demo trade short at 232.35, SL 233.05, TP1 at 231.50 TP2 at 230.50. After that just follow it down.

This is at least partly based on the nice pin bar on 1H chart as well as the look of the stochastics and the possible ongoing development of a pin bar on the daily chart.
Attached Image
  • #2,114
  • Mar 27, 2007 1:12am Mar 27, 2007 1:12am
Quoting LizardGizzard
Why down? Everything is poitning up? Gotta ride the train for a few days.
LG,
Have to agree with you here I have been long since yesterday, you have to ride the trend and for me this is long at the moment, I guess it all depends on how long you want to ride the train......for me it is longer than just a few hours !
Stay Lucky Mimas.
  • #2,115
  • Mar 27, 2007 5:32am Mar 27, 2007 5:32am
Long is on the horizon...for a few hours this morning. But this week I expect the overall move will continue downward.

The small time frames continue to bump up the price for short periods but daily and 4H continue to hold a short trend over the longer period.

Weekly is indicating long, but looks like it is going to retrace which supports the short trend. Weekly has been down trending since Jan 21.

Watch for a down conditions forming on the short time frames (30M) after they exhaust their coming up move.
  • #2,116
  • Mar 27, 2007 9:43am Mar 27, 2007 9:43am
you guys are pretty quiet today. im out right now, just sitting on the sidelines wait for entry on a long term short, i wanna see 230.15 broken.
  • #2,117
  • Mar 27, 2007 9:59am Mar 27, 2007 9:59am
Actually, I'm in a long-term short (large s/l) thinking it will head down eventually to 229 area.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,118
  • Mar 27, 2007 10:02am Mar 27, 2007 10:02am
Same story? any comments?
  • #2,119
  • Mar 27, 2007 10:18am Mar 27, 2007 10:18am
Quoting Nacho_1975
Same story? any comments?
Did you post an attachment? Wasn't trading this pair then.
All hard work brings a profit, but mere talk leads only to poverty.
  • #2,120
  • Mar 27, 2007 11:03am Mar 27, 2007 11:03am
Quoting Sami7
Did you post an attachment? Wasn't trading this pair then.
look at the Monthly chart and you will findout, what I am thinking
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