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THV system, final edition

  • #6,361
  • Feb 19, 2009 1:22pm Feb 19, 2009 1:22pm
Quoting TradeWell
Oh yeah. That usually closes within hours but I noticed that occasionally it can take several days.
Yes, for what little I've looked at them, I've seen it take the week, to close maybe on Friday, but that's about my longest. Maybe one of the old dinosaurs like Cobra has tracked longer.

I'll post a follow-up to that M15 chart. PA seems to be holding a descending line. I've moved the bottom one down a couple of times. That's good news for shorts, I think.
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Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #6,362
  • Feb 19, 2009 1:46pm Feb 19, 2009 1:46pm
Quoting SpecialEd
...Maybe one of the old dinosaurs like Cobra has tracked longer....
I didn't know snakes were part of the dinosaur family!
  • #6,363
  • Feb 19, 2009 1:49pm Feb 19, 2009 1:49pm
Quoting caveman
This happens to all of us.

Important to have patience and wait for that perfect setup. The market will reward you most of the time for having patience but always punishes for lack of it.
My problem is that I can not see the perfect setup until after it shows up on my chart and by that time, it is too late any way. I can see the perfect setup after the fact, in hindsight, after it has developed on the chart, but not while it is developing on a chart. While it is developing on the chart, I fear the candles could go in any directions, up, down, sideways. Every candle has equal probability to go in any direction, up or down - so I wait and procrastinate and freeze from pulling the trigger, or If I am already in a trade, try to get out at the wrong time. May be experienced traders can give few tips to overcome these psychological hurdles
  • #6,364
  • Edited 2:37pm Feb 19, 2009 2:05pm | Edited 2:37pm
You Long inclined guys are making me so nervous I'm having to go get ice cream. Talk about keeping me/us all on our toes....

Fibbing the High/Low for this move in the 15m gives some clarity on the battleground S/R levels right now...

Backing the Fib High anchor down to the horizontal s/r level at 2720 Psych level gives a nice topping out at the 127% Extension, it was nicely respected on the way down, and currently boundaried between the 79% and the 62% levels.
Excuse the noisy chart, I haven't found all the Off switches yet...

PS: Regardless of which way asia takes it, I'd like to see the 50% level dealt with first, one way or the other.
Attached Image
FUBAR...
  • #6,365
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:11pm Feb 19, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting ak4x
You Long inclined guys are making me so nervous I'm having to go get ice cream. Talk about keeping me/us all on our toes....

Fibbing the High/Low for this move in the 15m gives some clarity on the battleground S/R levels right now...

Backing the Fib High anchor down to the horizontal s/r level at 2720 Psych level gives a nice topping out at the 127% Extension, it was nicely respected on the way down, and currently boundaried between the 79% and the 62% levels.
Excuse the noisy chart, I haven't found all the Off switches yet... ...
You know, I could never talk you into it, but the way you do fibs is confusing to me. I put "0" at the start, in this case that 2760 area because I want pa to travel from there back to 2513, which would be my point of final destination/return, or 100%. I can follow your method, but it always takes me a minute.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #6,366
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:11pm Feb 19, 2009 2:11pm
Quoting traderathome
Here again is that originally drawn 1 Hour chart, now with the current 1 Hour chart added. You can see that the PA made it to the 424% Fibonacci Extension level....and more....before finally giving up the ghost (maybe).
from where i will take the fibo indi lines? on your chart
  • #6,367
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:20pm Feb 19, 2009 2:20pm
Quoting kerty9
My problem is that I can not see the perfect setup until after it shows up on my chart and by that time, it is too late any way. I can see the perfect setup after the fact, in hindsight, after it has developed on the chart, but not while it is developing on a chart. While it is developing on the chart, I fear the candles could go in any directions, up, down, sideways. Every candle has equal probability to go in any direction, up or down - so I wait and procrastinate and freeze from pulling the trigger, or If I am already in a trade, try to get out...
Acting on the feeling that a setup is HAPPENING and entry urgently needs to be made is most often followed by PAIN!!!!! I am teaching myself to calm down and be patient, so as to not fall victim to HEAD FAKES, by telling myself that if the setup is for a REALLY GOOD MOVEMENT, then there will be a pop, a pullback (for another entry opportunity), and then the real move will begin. I have seen this happen over and over. And I am convinced the reason for it is that the BIG GUNS often do not all enter together creating that first pop......many hold back and wait for the pullback. I believe THEY make that pullback happen for the sole purpose of being able to spread out their buildup of positions over multiple pullback opportunities so as to not wildly drive the price against themselves....which is what would happen if they all jumped at the same time.

So relax, and PRACTICE allowing the setup to run a bit and see if it provides a pullback for your entry. It may not always happen, but in that case console yourself with the truth that it is better to miss a good trade now and then, rather than constantly be in bad trades!
  • #6,368
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:21pm Feb 19, 2009 2:21pm
Quoting avi
from where i will take the fibo indi lines? on your chart
It is the MT4 built in Fibonacci Extension tool......experiment with it.
  • #6,369
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:25pm Feb 19, 2009 2:25pm
OK, this was a fun day, but it sure felt like work. I got back to positive PIPs and quit. Going on a 3-day trip. See you all next week.

Good pippin' to all, and a nice weekend to ya.
Up or down, gimme a ticket
  • #6,370
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:31pm Feb 19, 2009 2:31pm
Quoting SpecialEd
OK, this was a fun day, but it sure felt like work. I got back to positive PIPs and quit. Going on a 3-day trip. See you all next week.

Good pippin' to all, and a nice weekend to ya.
Bye, enjoy.
  • #6,371
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:33pm Feb 19, 2009 2:33pm
Quoting SpecialEd
You know, I could never talk you into it, but the way you do fibs is confusing to me...
I remember... in this case price rose, and I was looking for a Resistance Fib where any retracement downwards will be hitting Support levels, so I started at lower left corner, and followed the price to the high, then drug it back down to the 2720 level. There's pros and cons either way. Going to the high, you have price hitting the 50% right now at current levels... that' sounds good, but...

You see, I had ALREADY drawn the fib to the xx20 level on the way up, so when price continued on but STOPPED at the 127% level, I was already there, not waiting for a high to develop to draw a fib from in the first place... think of it as a "preemptive fib."

The additional plus for me is the fib i drew gives a yet to be reached 50% retrace at the 2650 level almost to the pip. That is also a powerful psych level and "I like it". That satisfies several criteria that frees my mind to look at the "next" thing w/o nagging things that i feel need to happen before price is released to move on into the next phase.. whether it be a continuation move up, or a further retrace down from that critical 50% level, wherever you choose to put it.

PS. While posting this, Price has just gotten to with 3 pips of my 50% level. Using the actual high for a fib anchor tho, you would now have a retrace to the 38% level which might be pointing you in a bearish continuation direction, premature still imo...

Hope this helps... (and still short from 2692...)
FUBAR...
  • #6,372
  • Edited 2:40pm Feb 19, 2009 2:38pm | Edited 2:40pm
Quoting ak4x
You Long inclined guys are making me so nervous I'm having to go get ice cream. Talk about keeping me/us all on our toes....
My Longs and Shorts are about equal today...some real NICE moves today.

Quoting ak4x
PS: Regardless of which way asia takes it, I'd like to see the 50% level dealt with first, one way or the other.
Making lower highs and lower lows and here comes an attempt on the test of the 50...having a few problems with the R2 being so close to the 50% but it's sure working on it. Doesn't look like we are going to have to wait for Asia...?
Listen to the whispers.... You may learn something
  • #6,373
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:39pm Feb 19, 2009 2:39pm
Quoting ak4x
I remember... in this case price rose, and I was looking for a Resistance Fib where any retracement downwards will be hitting Support levels, so I started at lower left corner, and followed the price to the high, then drug it back down to the 2720 level. There's pros and cons either way. Going to the high, you have price hitting the 50% right now at current levels... that' sounds good, but...

You see, I had ALREADY drawn the fib to the xx20 level on the way up, so when price continued on but STOPPED at the 127% level, I was already there, not...
This sounds interesting, ak4x. But like Ed, I am a bit confused, too. Since a picture is worth a thousand words, perhaps sometime you could pick a chart that you think worthy of explaining this further on........?
  • #6,374
  • Edited 3:21pm Feb 19, 2009 2:44pm | Edited 3:21pm
EurUsd on 1M chart.....watching for possibility here.

Edit: Added second chart.....and still waiting....

Edit: Added third chart showing pinch & fib extensions. Overall, start is weak and this may turn out to take longer to finally achieve a breakout, one way or the other. But for now, we will see. They sometimes get a lazy start...
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  • #6,375
  • Feb 19, 2009 2:55pm Feb 19, 2009 2:55pm
As for the kumo Cloud, trying your indicator with the 2,3,5 setting. I also use the Kumo setting 7,22,44.
So if I look at a chart with both settings, PA might be below the 236 but above the 7,22,44. Would one of the 2 settings be better for small TF and one more correct for larger TFs?
  • #6,376
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:13pm Feb 19, 2009 3:13pm
Forgot to attch Chart with 2 Kumos
235
7,22,44
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  • #6,377
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:34pm Feb 19, 2009 3:34pm
Quoting traderathome
perhaps sometime you could pick a chart that you think worthy of explaining this further on..?
sure, i'm in the middle of an online testing thing right now so will get to it in a bit.
FUBAR...
  • #6,378
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:52pm Feb 19, 2009 3:52pm
Quoting avi
from where i will take the fibo indi lines? on your chart
sorry for my inglish i open the insert but i have fibo expansion ?
  • #6,379
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:54pm Feb 19, 2009 3:54pm
Quoting abbassi
As for the kumo Cloud, trying your indicator with the 2,3,5 setting. I also use the Kumo setting 7,22,44.
So if I look at a chart with both settings, PA might be below the 236 but above the 7,22,44. Would one of the 2 settings be better for small TF and one more correct for larger TFs?
I don’t use it with that settings because you suppose not to trade when the PA is in the cloud and in your 1H chart you see almost all the nice bull move today being inside the cloud.

The THV settings are for short term day trading and help to secure the trades, it’s impossible to catch the bottoms, depending on the TF, using this THV rule.

Would be interesting how you interpret the rules for the higher settings.
  • #6,380
  • Feb 19, 2009 3:58pm Feb 19, 2009 3:58pm
Quoting kerty9
My problem is that I can not see the perfect setup until after it shows up on my chart and by that time, it is too late any way. I can see the perfect setup after the fact, in hindsight, after it has developed on the chart, but not while it is developing on a chart.
Think of it like learning to play music. Show me a musical score and I have no idea what all those squiggles mean - show a trained musician and he/she can hear that piece playing just by looking at the incomprehensible squiggles. So I am afraid the only way to learn is practice and lots of it. I once calculated that you need at least 500 hours of screen time before you START to 'see' what is (probably) going to happen. Some traders here have 10's of thousands of screen hours behind them, so there is no quick fix.

Tip would be start without any indicators, press F11 and get rid of all the clutter, especially the Terminal, then just watch how the price builds, how fast it builds, how the candles form, their shapes and as traderathome says especially how after every big move there is a retracement. Relate the movements to the time of day, trend, physc lines and read the news about the currency pair. Then gradually add the indicators into the mix and fully understand what they do and what they are telling you before you use them.

Lastly really study MM as the MOST IMPORTANT aspect of trading is strict Money Management.

When I first started screen trading I wrote a simple EA. All it did was look at the candles, if the candle result was positive it bought the next candle, if that was positive it bought again etc. I knew the trend so set it for only longs when the trend was up and vice versa. It actually makes a profit .. so long as there is a reasonably strong trend.

It can be done, so be patient and good luck.
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